ELECTRIC CARS
I had my first ride in an electric car today. My sister-in-law's boyfriend has just bought one, a Renault, and he took us out for a short spin in it.
Basically it is just like a normal car, albeit a bit quieter. I thought that its acceleration might be less, but that didn't seem to be the case. However, it does have a big problem with range, which varies between 75km and 150km (depending on the weather and much you thrash it) before you have to change the battery. As well as having a charger at home (which automatically charges the battery during the night, when electricity demand is lower), a company called Better Place is building a network of "battery stations" in Denmark, where you can change your battery. So far, these mainly lie along the motorway network, though presumably Better Place will extend them to areas with less traffic in due course.
We went and watched while the battery was changed. It is fixed under the boot and is quite large, much bigger than a traditional car battery. The station is completely automated, operates 24/7, and looks a bit like a car wash. Having driven in, the floor opens and robots dismantle the existing battery, take it away to the underground storage racks, and install a new one. It takes a bit longer than filling up with petrol, but not that long.
Instead of paying for fuel, you pay a leasing charge, which depends on the number of kilometers you drive a year, and which allows you to change the batteries (which are owned by Better Place, not the owner) as often as you like. This is not cheap, but the price will presumably fall, as more efficient batteries appear on the market. Tesla are apparently about to launch a battery with a range of 400km, which would give a big boost to the market.
I like the idea of electric cars. However, it has to be recognised that the fossil fuel industry has had 150 years to build up the infrastructure necessary to service the internal combustion engine. That means that for at least the rest of this decade, electric cars will be the preserve of the well-off, slightly eccentric, or both.
Walter Blotscher
Sunday 31 March 2013
Saturday 30 March 2013
ENTREPRENEURSHIP
Everybody accepts that economic growth is the only sure way out of the financial mess that most developed countries are sitting in. And in order to get growth, it's necessary for at least some people to take a risk. What if they don't want to?
A survey commissioned by the E.U. asked citizens from the 27 Member States and elsewhere whether they would prefer to be self-employed or have a steady job. The results varied enormously, with an entrepreneurial percentage of just over 20% in Sweden compared with over 60% in China and more than 80% in Turkey. The average for the E.U. was around 40%.
Seen with Scandinavian eyes, the outcome is worrying. Because the four countries with the lowest proportion wishing to be self-employed were - in order - Sweden, Finland, Norway and Denmark. It seems to be indeed true that the bigger the welfare state, the less likely one is to be entrepreneurial. That will make it harder for these countries to adapt and grow in the future.
Walter Blotscher
Everybody accepts that economic growth is the only sure way out of the financial mess that most developed countries are sitting in. And in order to get growth, it's necessary for at least some people to take a risk. What if they don't want to?
A survey commissioned by the E.U. asked citizens from the 27 Member States and elsewhere whether they would prefer to be self-employed or have a steady job. The results varied enormously, with an entrepreneurial percentage of just over 20% in Sweden compared with over 60% in China and more than 80% in Turkey. The average for the E.U. was around 40%.
Seen with Scandinavian eyes, the outcome is worrying. Because the four countries with the lowest proportion wishing to be self-employed were - in order - Sweden, Finland, Norway and Denmark. It seems to be indeed true that the bigger the welfare state, the less likely one is to be entrepreneurial. That will make it harder for these countries to adapt and grow in the future.
Walter Blotscher
Friday 29 March 2013
Thursday 28 March 2013
EASTER
Easter is the most important festival in Christianity. Without the crucifixion and - especially - the resurrection of Jesus, much of the religion would be reduced to the sayings of a nice guy. So it is surprising that Christians rarely celebrate Easter on the same day. This year the west will do so on Sunday, 31 March; the Orthodox Christians of the east will not do so until 5 May.
This is not a new phenomenon. Much of the tensions in early Christianity in Britain between the Irish tradition, which had converted the north of England and the Roman, which had converted the south, hinged on the date of Easter. These tensions were decisively resolved in favour of the latter at the Council of Whitby in 664.
The Irish tradition was in fact already an anomaly. According to the Bible, Jesus held the Last Supper on a Thursday, was crucified the next day and resurrected on the Sunday. But the Last Supper took place as part of the Jewish festival of Passover, which depends on the first full moon on or after the vernal equinox. This can be on any day of the week; so, in order to ensure that the celebration of the resurrection always takes place on a Sunday, the Council of Nicaea decided in 325 that Easter would be on the first Sunday after the first full moon on or after the vernal equinox. Furthermore, the vernal equinox was fixed as 21 March, which it was back in 325, though it now takes place on 20 March. The Council's decision makes the earliest possible date for Easter 22 March, when the full moon is on 21 March and that date is a Saturday; that last happened in 1818 and will next take place in 2285. Similarly, the latest possible date is when there is a full moon on 20 March, so you have to wait until the next one, 29 days later, on 18 April. If 18 April is itself a Sunday, then you have to wait a week until the next Sunday, giving the latest date for Easter as 25 April. This last happened in 1943 and will next happen in 2038.
Since all Christians signed up to the Council of Nicaea, how come there are differences today? The answer lies in the change from the Julian to the Gregorian calendar promulgated by the Pope in 1582, and gradually introduced to Western Europe over the following centuries. The Orthodox church, which didn't recognise the Pope, still uses the Julian calendar, which is currently 13 days behind. If a new moon appears during that 13 day period, as is the case this year, then you can get a large variation in the dates for Easter between west and east.
Many people have argued for finding a date which is the same the world over, and which doesn't depend on the moon; indeed, in 1928, the British Parliament passed such a law, fixing Easter as the Sunday after the second Saturday in April (though the law has never been implemented). However, one of the enduring features of Christianity is the fact that its various strands have a habit of arguing with each other about various doctrinal and other issues. Don't expect there to be agreement on this one any time soon.
Walter Blotscher
Easter is the most important festival in Christianity. Without the crucifixion and - especially - the resurrection of Jesus, much of the religion would be reduced to the sayings of a nice guy. So it is surprising that Christians rarely celebrate Easter on the same day. This year the west will do so on Sunday, 31 March; the Orthodox Christians of the east will not do so until 5 May.
This is not a new phenomenon. Much of the tensions in early Christianity in Britain between the Irish tradition, which had converted the north of England and the Roman, which had converted the south, hinged on the date of Easter. These tensions were decisively resolved in favour of the latter at the Council of Whitby in 664.
The Irish tradition was in fact already an anomaly. According to the Bible, Jesus held the Last Supper on a Thursday, was crucified the next day and resurrected on the Sunday. But the Last Supper took place as part of the Jewish festival of Passover, which depends on the first full moon on or after the vernal equinox. This can be on any day of the week; so, in order to ensure that the celebration of the resurrection always takes place on a Sunday, the Council of Nicaea decided in 325 that Easter would be on the first Sunday after the first full moon on or after the vernal equinox. Furthermore, the vernal equinox was fixed as 21 March, which it was back in 325, though it now takes place on 20 March. The Council's decision makes the earliest possible date for Easter 22 March, when the full moon is on 21 March and that date is a Saturday; that last happened in 1818 and will next take place in 2285. Similarly, the latest possible date is when there is a full moon on 20 March, so you have to wait until the next one, 29 days later, on 18 April. If 18 April is itself a Sunday, then you have to wait a week until the next Sunday, giving the latest date for Easter as 25 April. This last happened in 1943 and will next happen in 2038.
Since all Christians signed up to the Council of Nicaea, how come there are differences today? The answer lies in the change from the Julian to the Gregorian calendar promulgated by the Pope in 1582, and gradually introduced to Western Europe over the following centuries. The Orthodox church, which didn't recognise the Pope, still uses the Julian calendar, which is currently 13 days behind. If a new moon appears during that 13 day period, as is the case this year, then you can get a large variation in the dates for Easter between west and east.
Many people have argued for finding a date which is the same the world over, and which doesn't depend on the moon; indeed, in 1928, the British Parliament passed such a law, fixing Easter as the Sunday after the second Saturday in April (though the law has never been implemented). However, one of the enduring features of Christianity is the fact that its various strands have a habit of arguing with each other about various doctrinal and other issues. Don't expect there to be agreement on this one any time soon.
Walter Blotscher
Tuesday 26 March 2013
FILMS ABOUT THE ELDERLY
An interesting cinematic development is the increasing number of films that deal with the elderly. The Iron Lady, Amour, Hope Springs, and the one I showed to the pensioners this morning, the Quartet, have all appeared during the past year. I am sure there are (and will be) others.
What's wrong with that, you may ask? After all, there are a lot of elderly in the world and their numbers are growing; fast. The interest lies in cinema's traditional role of showing the strong, the beautiful, the glamorous, the healthy or the plain fantastical, whereas these films show the weak, the wrinkled, the faded, the demented. Not all of them are brilliant films, but they are certainly better than (say) A Good Day to Die Hard, the fifth instalment in what is now a very tired franchise.
Do I say this merely because I am elderly? Hey I'm 53. About halfway, I should think.
Walter Blotscher
An interesting cinematic development is the increasing number of films that deal with the elderly. The Iron Lady, Amour, Hope Springs, and the one I showed to the pensioners this morning, the Quartet, have all appeared during the past year. I am sure there are (and will be) others.
What's wrong with that, you may ask? After all, there are a lot of elderly in the world and their numbers are growing; fast. The interest lies in cinema's traditional role of showing the strong, the beautiful, the glamorous, the healthy or the plain fantastical, whereas these films show the weak, the wrinkled, the faded, the demented. Not all of them are brilliant films, but they are certainly better than (say) A Good Day to Die Hard, the fifth instalment in what is now a very tired franchise.
Do I say this merely because I am elderly? Hey I'm 53. About halfway, I should think.
Walter Blotscher
Monday 25 March 2013
DEPOSIT INSURANCE (3)
Plan A to save Cyprus' finances and offshore banking business model was to spread the pain "thinly"; even depositors covered by the Euro100,000 guarantee would be hit for a one-off levy of 6.75%. As I said earlier, this was a terrible idea. If guaranteed deposits in Cypus could be hit unilaterally, then what about guaranteed deposits in other Euro-countries?
After protests by ordinary Cypriots and sagging markets, Plan A was ditched. Plan B, agreed last night between the Cypriot Government and their European colleagues, changes tack and spreads the pain "thickly". Small depositors will now be spared. The country's second biggest bank will be wound up, and the biggest restructured. Shareholders in them will be wiped out; bondholders (of which there are few) and big depositors will have to take a haircut. The exact size, 40%, 50% or more, will be decided within the next couple of days.
Plan B is a much better idea than Plan A. Guarantee now means what it should always have meant, just that. And the problem is tackled at source, namely that Cyprus' banks are essentially bust. Nevertheless, Plan B is not without problems. Not all of those big depositors are shady Russians, they include thrifty individuals and a lot of small businesses. Cutting off the offshore banking business at its knees will depress the Cypriot economy until an alternative is found, and that will take years rather than days. It will be sickly for a long time to come.
The Dutch head of the Euro finance ministers group said that Plan B could have been on offer last week, if only the political will had been there; which it wasn't. This shows starkly just how perniciously intertwined politics and finance have become. The days when a bank was just a place where you deposited money and wrote cheques are a thing of history.
Walter Blotscher
Plan A to save Cyprus' finances and offshore banking business model was to spread the pain "thinly"; even depositors covered by the Euro100,000 guarantee would be hit for a one-off levy of 6.75%. As I said earlier, this was a terrible idea. If guaranteed deposits in Cypus could be hit unilaterally, then what about guaranteed deposits in other Euro-countries?
After protests by ordinary Cypriots and sagging markets, Plan A was ditched. Plan B, agreed last night between the Cypriot Government and their European colleagues, changes tack and spreads the pain "thickly". Small depositors will now be spared. The country's second biggest bank will be wound up, and the biggest restructured. Shareholders in them will be wiped out; bondholders (of which there are few) and big depositors will have to take a haircut. The exact size, 40%, 50% or more, will be decided within the next couple of days.
Plan B is a much better idea than Plan A. Guarantee now means what it should always have meant, just that. And the problem is tackled at source, namely that Cyprus' banks are essentially bust. Nevertheless, Plan B is not without problems. Not all of those big depositors are shady Russians, they include thrifty individuals and a lot of small businesses. Cutting off the offshore banking business at its knees will depress the Cypriot economy until an alternative is found, and that will take years rather than days. It will be sickly for a long time to come.
The Dutch head of the Euro finance ministers group said that Plan B could have been on offer last week, if only the political will had been there; which it wasn't. This shows starkly just how perniciously intertwined politics and finance have become. The days when a bank was just a place where you deposited money and wrote cheques are a thing of history.
Walter Blotscher
Sunday 24 March 2013
SERGEI KRIKALYEV
Sergei Krikalyev was a Soviet cosmonaut who went up to the Mir space station in May 1991. At the end of the year he was still circling the globe, since nobody could make a decision to bring him back again. The reason was that while he was up there, the Soviet Union collapsed, being replaced by the Russian Federation and the other sovereign republics of the former union. He couldn't even ask his Russian colleagues to sort things out, since the former Soviet Space Centre found itself in the newly independent republic of Kazakhstan. You wonder if the authorities there demanded a visa when he eventually got back to terra firma.
I rather like that story. Not least because it ended well. Sergei Krikalyev is now the head of human space flight for the international space station.
Walter Blotscher
Sergei Krikalyev was a Soviet cosmonaut who went up to the Mir space station in May 1991. At the end of the year he was still circling the globe, since nobody could make a decision to bring him back again. The reason was that while he was up there, the Soviet Union collapsed, being replaced by the Russian Federation and the other sovereign republics of the former union. He couldn't even ask his Russian colleagues to sort things out, since the former Soviet Space Centre found itself in the newly independent republic of Kazakhstan. You wonder if the authorities there demanded a visa when he eventually got back to terra firma.
I rather like that story. Not least because it ended well. Sergei Krikalyev is now the head of human space flight for the international space station.
Walter Blotscher
Saturday 23 March 2013
SCHOOL REFORM (3)
Final, final talks between the Danish teachers unions and their local authority employers broke down last night. Unless something out of the ordinary happens next week, more than half a million schoolchildren won't be going back to school after the Easter holidays.
Lots of people - notably the students themselves - are urging compromise. But the basic issue is a difficult one to split down the middle. Either the teachers continue, as they have for many, many years, to keep the right to organise their own time outside of formal lessons. Or they accept, as the employers (with the Government discreetly in the background) would like, that headmasters organise their non-teaching time, with most of it taking place on school premises. Both sides see the issue as a fundamental principle, which it is. The problem is that they view it fundamentally differently.
It's difficult to see how this one will pan out. It's possible that a compromise will be found during the next week; lockout deadlines tend to concentrate the mind. On the other hand, both sides have invested so much in their respective positions that it's hard to see how they can retreat from them. One thing is certain; some people will be working hard over the coming holiday period, not least in Government offices.
Walter Blotscher
Final, final talks between the Danish teachers unions and their local authority employers broke down last night. Unless something out of the ordinary happens next week, more than half a million schoolchildren won't be going back to school after the Easter holidays.
Lots of people - notably the students themselves - are urging compromise. But the basic issue is a difficult one to split down the middle. Either the teachers continue, as they have for many, many years, to keep the right to organise their own time outside of formal lessons. Or they accept, as the employers (with the Government discreetly in the background) would like, that headmasters organise their non-teaching time, with most of it taking place on school premises. Both sides see the issue as a fundamental principle, which it is. The problem is that they view it fundamentally differently.
It's difficult to see how this one will pan out. It's possible that a compromise will be found during the next week; lockout deadlines tend to concentrate the mind. On the other hand, both sides have invested so much in their respective positions that it's hard to see how they can retreat from them. One thing is certain; some people will be working hard over the coming holiday period, not least in Government offices.
Walter Blotscher
Friday 22 March 2013
SHOOTINGS IN COPENHAGEN
Denmark is one of the safest places on earth; I can't remember the last time I saw a policeman in my local village or heard of a crime. A number of right-wing politicians will tell you otherwise, but it wouldn't be true.
Lately, however, a new trend is starting in Copenhagen, namely shootings. So far this year there have been 25 such incidents. Before you think of L.A. or Harlem, I should say that they are rarely fatal. Nevertheless, by Danish standards, this is getting a bit like the O.K. Corrall.
The reason behind this development is gang warfare. There have long been turf wars in Scandinavia between Hell's Angels and Bandidos, mainly over drugs. The new element is gangs of immigrants, who were supposed to be muscled out of the way, but who are fighting back, obviously with guns.
The police are keeping a wary eye on all of this; yesterday saw raids on some 64 different addresses in the greater Copenhagen area, which netted guns, drugs and cash. They are presumably acting now in order to nip things in the bud. Whether they succeed is of course another matter entirely.
Walter Blotscher
Denmark is one of the safest places on earth; I can't remember the last time I saw a policeman in my local village or heard of a crime. A number of right-wing politicians will tell you otherwise, but it wouldn't be true.
Lately, however, a new trend is starting in Copenhagen, namely shootings. So far this year there have been 25 such incidents. Before you think of L.A. or Harlem, I should say that they are rarely fatal. Nevertheless, by Danish standards, this is getting a bit like the O.K. Corrall.
The reason behind this development is gang warfare. There have long been turf wars in Scandinavia between Hell's Angels and Bandidos, mainly over drugs. The new element is gangs of immigrants, who were supposed to be muscled out of the way, but who are fighting back, obviously with guns.
The police are keeping a wary eye on all of this; yesterday saw raids on some 64 different addresses in the greater Copenhagen area, which netted guns, drugs and cash. They are presumably acting now in order to nip things in the bud. Whether they succeed is of course another matter entirely.
Walter Blotscher
Wednesday 20 March 2013
IRAQ (3)
Today is the tenth anniversary of the start of the Iraq war. Was it worth it?
Tony Blair may still be parrotting, that he has no regrets, but I think most people are coming round to the view that it was a mistake. Lord Bingham was not the only lawyer to think that it was illegal. Lots of people got killed, not least over 100,000 innocent civilians. It cost over a trillion dollars.
Those were the things that did happen. But there were also lots of things that didn't. The war didn't stop the production of weapons of mass destruction, since there weren't any to start with. It didn't lead to democracy in the Arab world, or a solution to the Israeli-Palestine conflict, or cause the Iranians to stop developing a nuclear weapon. It didn't lead to more respect for the Western world or its way of life. It didn't stop terrorist recruitment or suicide bomb attacks.
Perhaps worst of all, it didn't bring Iraq together as a country. Ambassadors who had lived and worked there all cautioned against the war, on the grounds that Iraq, an artificial post-WW1 creation from the ashes of the Ottoman Empire, would fragment into its constituent parts if there was no central authority. That has happened, with Shias, Sunnis and Kurds all controlling their enclaves. Iraq, as a state, exists only on paper.
Countries take a long, long time to develop; wars destroy things very quickly. Iraq was one of the many examples of the noughties that confirmed that view.
Walter Blotscher
Today is the tenth anniversary of the start of the Iraq war. Was it worth it?
Tony Blair may still be parrotting, that he has no regrets, but I think most people are coming round to the view that it was a mistake. Lord Bingham was not the only lawyer to think that it was illegal. Lots of people got killed, not least over 100,000 innocent civilians. It cost over a trillion dollars.
Those were the things that did happen. But there were also lots of things that didn't. The war didn't stop the production of weapons of mass destruction, since there weren't any to start with. It didn't lead to democracy in the Arab world, or a solution to the Israeli-Palestine conflict, or cause the Iranians to stop developing a nuclear weapon. It didn't lead to more respect for the Western world or its way of life. It didn't stop terrorist recruitment or suicide bomb attacks.
Perhaps worst of all, it didn't bring Iraq together as a country. Ambassadors who had lived and worked there all cautioned against the war, on the grounds that Iraq, an artificial post-WW1 creation from the ashes of the Ottoman Empire, would fragment into its constituent parts if there was no central authority. That has happened, with Shias, Sunnis and Kurds all controlling their enclaves. Iraq, as a state, exists only on paper.
Countries take a long, long time to develop; wars destroy things very quickly. Iraq was one of the many examples of the noughties that confirmed that view.
Walter Blotscher
Tuesday 19 March 2013
MARCH SNOW
It has been freezing in Denmark for what seems like ages. My post of 21 February talked of "endless days with sub-zero temperatures" and that was a month ago. The past two days have added lots of snow to the cold; and with the strong easterly wind blowing in from Russia, that makes for a lot of snowdrifts. We have managed to get out to the main road from our rural property, but it was touch and go this morning.
Hey, but don't feel sorry for me, the guys who should really be pitied are the cub reporters on the news programmes. I tend to watch the news in the morning while I eat my breakfast. At 7.00 a.m. the anchor cuts to some poor young person standing by a motorway in the middle of a blizzard, and talking about the traffic problems on the roads. He - it is usually a he - will have been up at 5.00 a.m. to get his equipment and drive out to Aabenraa or Falster or some other out-of-the-way place, and he then has to stand there for the next x hours in miserable weather, giving inane bulletins every 30 minutes or so. I may have difficulty driving the 400 yards up the lane to the main road, but at least I can drink my coffee sitting in my pyjamas in a chair with a radiator three feet away.
Walter Blotscher
It has been freezing in Denmark for what seems like ages. My post of 21 February talked of "endless days with sub-zero temperatures" and that was a month ago. The past two days have added lots of snow to the cold; and with the strong easterly wind blowing in from Russia, that makes for a lot of snowdrifts. We have managed to get out to the main road from our rural property, but it was touch and go this morning.
Hey, but don't feel sorry for me, the guys who should really be pitied are the cub reporters on the news programmes. I tend to watch the news in the morning while I eat my breakfast. At 7.00 a.m. the anchor cuts to some poor young person standing by a motorway in the middle of a blizzard, and talking about the traffic problems on the roads. He - it is usually a he - will have been up at 5.00 a.m. to get his equipment and drive out to Aabenraa or Falster or some other out-of-the-way place, and he then has to stand there for the next x hours in miserable weather, giving inane bulletins every 30 minutes or so. I may have difficulty driving the 400 yards up the lane to the main road, but at least I can drink my coffee sitting in my pyjamas in a chair with a radiator three feet away.
Walter Blotscher
Monday 18 March 2013
DEPOSIT INSURANCE (2)
The strength of the reaction against the E.U.'s proposed bailout of Cyprus has taken the authorities by surprise. Protests against the levy on deposits by local Cypriots, and objections from Vladimir Putin (in support of Russian depositors), were to be expected. But the idea was trashed by luminaries such as the Economist; stock markets fell on the news. As a result, the vote on the levy by the Cyprian Parliament, which was supposed to have taken place today, has been postponed. Officials are talking about the possibility of amending the terms.
Banking essentially depends on a bit of a confidence trick. Savers deposit their money on the assumption that it can be withdrawn tomorrow; banks then lend that money out for periods much longer than those promised by savers. The trick comes in persuading those depositors both that they can withdraw their money if they want to (a persuasion that is made easier if the deposits are guaranteed by the Government); and that they don't need to (if they all did at the same time, then the bank would go bust). The levy in the bailout plan attacks both of these elements. First, depositors can't withdraw their money; or, at least, not all of it, since the Government has nicked some of it. Secondly, it puts a large hole in the idea that they don't need to withdraw it; what was guaranteed is, er, not.
In other words, the proposed bailout of Cyprus' banks has blown a big hole in the idea of banking per se. Which is why, despite the fact that Cyprus only represents 0.2% of the E.U. area's GDP, those protests matter. If they do this to Cypriot depositors, what will they do to depositors elsewhere? E.U. leaders are scrambling for a good answer to that question; there isn't one.
Walter Blotscher
The strength of the reaction against the E.U.'s proposed bailout of Cyprus has taken the authorities by surprise. Protests against the levy on deposits by local Cypriots, and objections from Vladimir Putin (in support of Russian depositors), were to be expected. But the idea was trashed by luminaries such as the Economist; stock markets fell on the news. As a result, the vote on the levy by the Cyprian Parliament, which was supposed to have taken place today, has been postponed. Officials are talking about the possibility of amending the terms.
Banking essentially depends on a bit of a confidence trick. Savers deposit their money on the assumption that it can be withdrawn tomorrow; banks then lend that money out for periods much longer than those promised by savers. The trick comes in persuading those depositors both that they can withdraw their money if they want to (a persuasion that is made easier if the deposits are guaranteed by the Government); and that they don't need to (if they all did at the same time, then the bank would go bust). The levy in the bailout plan attacks both of these elements. First, depositors can't withdraw their money; or, at least, not all of it, since the Government has nicked some of it. Secondly, it puts a large hole in the idea that they don't need to withdraw it; what was guaranteed is, er, not.
In other words, the proposed bailout of Cyprus' banks has blown a big hole in the idea of banking per se. Which is why, despite the fact that Cyprus only represents 0.2% of the E.U. area's GDP, those protests matter. If they do this to Cypriot depositors, what will they do to depositors elsewhere? E.U. leaders are scrambling for a good answer to that question; there isn't one.
Walter Blotscher
Sunday 17 March 2013
DEPOSIT INSURANCE
Deposit insurance is a mechanism whereby a Government guarantees bank deposits, usually up to a fixed amount. Those limits were raised sharply in nearly every developed country, following the financial meltdown in 2008. This reassured savers that their money was safe, and reduced the chances of a bank's being subject to a devastating "run", when savers all decide to withdraw their money at the same time. However, even a guarantee may not be enough, if those same savers think that the Government is going to rat on the deal.
The likelihood of that happening has just gone up a notch, following the agreement by the E.U. to help Cyprus out of its banking difficulties with a Euro10 billion loan. Because one of the conditions is a levy on all bank deposits of 6.75% up to Euro100,000 and 9.9% above that amount. True, the levy is a one-off, and depositors will receive the equivalent amount in the form of shares in the banks concerned. Nevertheless, it represents a forced purchase of those shares, a change to the deposit insurance contract between the depositor and the Cyprian Government, and a change to the practice of E.U. bailouts. Not a good combination.
E.U. leaders are undoubtedly concerned that Cyprus has become a haven for a lot of Russian deposits, some of which may have been acquired in shady or even illegal circumstances. But if that is the problem, then tackle it directly. Taking 6.75% of a Cyprian granny's savings is not going to make a Russian oligarch behave better, but it is going to make other Europeans even more nervous about the things their leaders get up to.
Walter Blotscher
Deposit insurance is a mechanism whereby a Government guarantees bank deposits, usually up to a fixed amount. Those limits were raised sharply in nearly every developed country, following the financial meltdown in 2008. This reassured savers that their money was safe, and reduced the chances of a bank's being subject to a devastating "run", when savers all decide to withdraw their money at the same time. However, even a guarantee may not be enough, if those same savers think that the Government is going to rat on the deal.
The likelihood of that happening has just gone up a notch, following the agreement by the E.U. to help Cyprus out of its banking difficulties with a Euro10 billion loan. Because one of the conditions is a levy on all bank deposits of 6.75% up to Euro100,000 and 9.9% above that amount. True, the levy is a one-off, and depositors will receive the equivalent amount in the form of shares in the banks concerned. Nevertheless, it represents a forced purchase of those shares, a change to the deposit insurance contract between the depositor and the Cyprian Government, and a change to the practice of E.U. bailouts. Not a good combination.
E.U. leaders are undoubtedly concerned that Cyprus has become a haven for a lot of Russian deposits, some of which may have been acquired in shady or even illegal circumstances. But if that is the problem, then tackle it directly. Taking 6.75% of a Cyprian granny's savings is not going to make a Russian oligarch behave better, but it is going to make other Europeans even more nervous about the things their leaders get up to.
Walter Blotscher
Saturday 16 March 2013
RUGBY
The 6-Nations championship came down to the wire today, with England playing Wales in Cardiff. If England won, then they would have achieved the Grand Slam; if Wales won, then they and England would have equal points in the championship and it would depend on the margin of Wales' victory as to who took the title.
In the end, it wasn't even close, Wales winning by a record 30-3. It was clear from the start that Wales were "up for it" on their home turf. They won every 50-50 ball, were more ferocious in the tackle, dominated the scrums. England were blown away.
I watched it with my son on his computer. The beer and nachos were a nice way to start, but by the time the game had finished, I was feeling a bit like I used to in the 1970's when England serially lost.
Walter Blotscher
The 6-Nations championship came down to the wire today, with England playing Wales in Cardiff. If England won, then they would have achieved the Grand Slam; if Wales won, then they and England would have equal points in the championship and it would depend on the margin of Wales' victory as to who took the title.
In the end, it wasn't even close, Wales winning by a record 30-3. It was clear from the start that Wales were "up for it" on their home turf. They won every 50-50 ball, were more ferocious in the tackle, dominated the scrums. England were blown away.
I watched it with my son on his computer. The beer and nachos were a nice way to start, but by the time the game had finished, I was feeling a bit like I used to in the 1970's when England serially lost.
Walter Blotscher
Thursday 14 March 2013
GREENLAND (2)
There was an election in Greenland on Tuesday. Opinion polls said it would be a dead heat, but in the end the opposition Siumut (Social Democrats) won over the incumbent Inuit Ataqatigilt (Socialists). As elsewhere in Scandinavia, Siumut are the natural party of Government, having run the place from its founding in 1977 until the election in 2009. However, what is different this time is that the party is now led by a woman, Aleqa Hammond, who looks likely to lead the Government. In a male-dominated society, that represents a real shift.
It is no surprise that the two leading parties (which, between them, took 77% of the vote) are both left-of-centre. Greenland's 56,000 inhabitants get a subsidy of around Dkr.3.5 billion a year from Denmark, or a bit more than Dkr.60.000 per person. Since that is not going to change for a while, right-wing parties tend to struggle. Nevertheless, Ms. Hammond is, in Greenlandic terms, heading in that direction. This is likely to reflect itself most in a tweaking of the "large scale law", which regulates large mining projects and which was passed last year (though it is yet to be ratified by Denmark). Danish politicians are most worried about the immigration implications (see the earlier post); Ms. Hammond is more focussed on getting the principle of royalties included in the legislation.
Everybody agrees that Greenland has lots of minerals. Everybody also agrees that exploiting them will be very difficult. The election of Ms. Hammond suggests that Greenlanders intend to drive a hard bargain with the mining companies.
Walter Blotscher
There was an election in Greenland on Tuesday. Opinion polls said it would be a dead heat, but in the end the opposition Siumut (Social Democrats) won over the incumbent Inuit Ataqatigilt (Socialists). As elsewhere in Scandinavia, Siumut are the natural party of Government, having run the place from its founding in 1977 until the election in 2009. However, what is different this time is that the party is now led by a woman, Aleqa Hammond, who looks likely to lead the Government. In a male-dominated society, that represents a real shift.
It is no surprise that the two leading parties (which, between them, took 77% of the vote) are both left-of-centre. Greenland's 56,000 inhabitants get a subsidy of around Dkr.3.5 billion a year from Denmark, or a bit more than Dkr.60.000 per person. Since that is not going to change for a while, right-wing parties tend to struggle. Nevertheless, Ms. Hammond is, in Greenlandic terms, heading in that direction. This is likely to reflect itself most in a tweaking of the "large scale law", which regulates large mining projects and which was passed last year (though it is yet to be ratified by Denmark). Danish politicians are most worried about the immigration implications (see the earlier post); Ms. Hammond is more focussed on getting the principle of royalties included in the legislation.
Everybody agrees that Greenland has lots of minerals. Everybody also agrees that exploiting them will be very difficult. The election of Ms. Hammond suggests that Greenlanders intend to drive a hard bargain with the mining companies.
Walter Blotscher
Wednesday 13 March 2013
THE DANGERS OF TRANSLATION
Foreign wars need interpreters. Soldiers need to know where they are going, and where the enemy are hiding. Modern technology (satellites, GPS systems, better mapping) can do a lot of the heavy lifting, as they say, but local "intel" is still important. And if that intel comes from local people, then you need to be able to talk to them. In Iraq and Afghanistan, that means in languages unfamiliar to the vast majority of Western military forces. Which in turn means hiring local interpreters, who can speak technical English.
Recognising their value, interpreters and their families are prime targets for the likes of the Taliban. Although well-paid by local standards, the job is extremely dangerous; and it stays dangerous, even when those Western military forces leave. Which is why most countries offer their interpreters asylum, and the chance to start a new life in a safe (or, at least, safer) environment. Since every interpreter has almost certainly directly saved foreign lives, it is only reasonable for the foreigners to repay the compliment.
Denmark did this with its Iraqi translators, and is now mulling over doing the same with those in Afghanistan. An opinion poll shows that 71% of the population supports the idea, 80% amongst those who voted for the centre-left Government or Enhedslisten. So why hesitate?
The answer, as ever, is worries about immigration. Putting it bluntly, being nice to interpreters means more black or brown (i.e. non-European) faces in Denmark. Sadly, in today's world, that causes all Danish politicians, of whatever stripe, to hesitate. You would have thought that those same politicians would have thought this through before they gaily sent off troops to fight battles a long way from home. But like the decision to go to war itself, it all looks a bit easier from a desk in Christiansborg.
My guess is that the pressure to do what other countries have already done will outweigh those hesitations. But it will all be very grudging, and leave a nasty taste in the mouth. Not the best welcome for an Afghani interpreter starting a new life in a foreign country.
Walter Blotscher
Foreign wars need interpreters. Soldiers need to know where they are going, and where the enemy are hiding. Modern technology (satellites, GPS systems, better mapping) can do a lot of the heavy lifting, as they say, but local "intel" is still important. And if that intel comes from local people, then you need to be able to talk to them. In Iraq and Afghanistan, that means in languages unfamiliar to the vast majority of Western military forces. Which in turn means hiring local interpreters, who can speak technical English.
Recognising their value, interpreters and their families are prime targets for the likes of the Taliban. Although well-paid by local standards, the job is extremely dangerous; and it stays dangerous, even when those Western military forces leave. Which is why most countries offer their interpreters asylum, and the chance to start a new life in a safe (or, at least, safer) environment. Since every interpreter has almost certainly directly saved foreign lives, it is only reasonable for the foreigners to repay the compliment.
Denmark did this with its Iraqi translators, and is now mulling over doing the same with those in Afghanistan. An opinion poll shows that 71% of the population supports the idea, 80% amongst those who voted for the centre-left Government or Enhedslisten. So why hesitate?
The answer, as ever, is worries about immigration. Putting it bluntly, being nice to interpreters means more black or brown (i.e. non-European) faces in Denmark. Sadly, in today's world, that causes all Danish politicians, of whatever stripe, to hesitate. You would have thought that those same politicians would have thought this through before they gaily sent off troops to fight battles a long way from home. But like the decision to go to war itself, it all looks a bit easier from a desk in Christiansborg.
My guess is that the pressure to do what other countries have already done will outweigh those hesitations. But it will all be very grudging, and leave a nasty taste in the mouth. Not the best welcome for an Afghani interpreter starting a new life in a foreign country.
Walter Blotscher
Tuesday 12 March 2013
THE FALKLAND ISLANDS (2)
Well, blow me over with a feather duster. In a referendum on the Falkland Islands, asking the local population whether they wanted to remain British, 1,517 out of 1,672 eligible voters cast their ballot, and 1,513 said yes. That is a better result than the former Soviet Union ever managed, and probably even better than North Korea.
And just as farcical. The British Government is touting this as an important exercise in democracy and self-determination. But as I pointed out in my previous post on the islands, the self-determination principle was abandoned when Hong Kong was given back to China (yes, the New Territories were on a long lease, but Hong Kong island itself had been given to the British "in perpetuity"). And, lest we forget, the British were negotiating to get rid of the islands when Argentina rashly invaded in 1982. Which is why the whole Foreign Office ministerial team, headed by Lord Carrington, had to resign.
Argentina would do well to ignore the whole thing, not get annoyed, and play a Chinese-style long game. The Falkland Islands are a colonial relic; indeed, it is hard to imagine a piece of land on the globe further from Britain than the islands. It may take a while, but eventually they will end up being decoupled from the motherland, in the same way as all of the other colonies that once belonged to Britain.
Walter Blotscher
Well, blow me over with a feather duster. In a referendum on the Falkland Islands, asking the local population whether they wanted to remain British, 1,517 out of 1,672 eligible voters cast their ballot, and 1,513 said yes. That is a better result than the former Soviet Union ever managed, and probably even better than North Korea.
And just as farcical. The British Government is touting this as an important exercise in democracy and self-determination. But as I pointed out in my previous post on the islands, the self-determination principle was abandoned when Hong Kong was given back to China (yes, the New Territories were on a long lease, but Hong Kong island itself had been given to the British "in perpetuity"). And, lest we forget, the British were negotiating to get rid of the islands when Argentina rashly invaded in 1982. Which is why the whole Foreign Office ministerial team, headed by Lord Carrington, had to resign.
Argentina would do well to ignore the whole thing, not get annoyed, and play a Chinese-style long game. The Falkland Islands are a colonial relic; indeed, it is hard to imagine a piece of land on the globe further from Britain than the islands. It may take a while, but eventually they will end up being decoupled from the motherland, in the same way as all of the other colonies that once belonged to Britain.
Walter Blotscher
Monday 11 March 2013
DEFENCE SPENDING (3)
The Chief of Staff recommended the closure of five army barracks in order to achieve the necessary Dkr.2.7 billion of savings in the defence budget. However, after discussions amongst the politicians, that has been reduced to two and a half. Sønderborg and Fredericia will go; Haderslev, Bornholm and the life guards barracks will stay; Vordingborg will be shrunk.
Bornholm, being an island where jobs are scarce, was not surprisingly spared. But Sønderborg's closure most definitely was a surprise. Sønderborg lies in the Schleswig part of the old Schleswig-Holstein duchies. It is also the site of Dybbøl Banke, the 1864 defeat which had such an effect on the Danish psyche, and which led to Prussia's annexing the duchies.So closing the barracks there is somewhat akin to closing West Point in America or Sandhurst in England.
Politicians now say that the era of closures is over, and that the current constellation of facilities is sufficient for the future. Defence experts disagree. They predict that in four years' time, politicians will be going through this process yet again. The Chief of Staff gave his professional opinion on what was needed to modernise the Danish army. That politicians have chosen to water down his proposals merely shows how political such decisions have become.
Walter Blotscher
The Chief of Staff recommended the closure of five army barracks in order to achieve the necessary Dkr.2.7 billion of savings in the defence budget. However, after discussions amongst the politicians, that has been reduced to two and a half. Sønderborg and Fredericia will go; Haderslev, Bornholm and the life guards barracks will stay; Vordingborg will be shrunk.
Bornholm, being an island where jobs are scarce, was not surprisingly spared. But Sønderborg's closure most definitely was a surprise. Sønderborg lies in the Schleswig part of the old Schleswig-Holstein duchies. It is also the site of Dybbøl Banke, the 1864 defeat which had such an effect on the Danish psyche, and which led to Prussia's annexing the duchies.So closing the barracks there is somewhat akin to closing West Point in America or Sandhurst in England.
Politicians now say that the era of closures is over, and that the current constellation of facilities is sufficient for the future. Defence experts disagree. They predict that in four years' time, politicians will be going through this process yet again. The Chief of Staff gave his professional opinion on what was needed to modernise the Danish army. That politicians have chosen to water down his proposals merely shows how political such decisions have become.
Walter Blotscher
Sunday 10 March 2013
BORGEN
Borgen (literally "the castle") is the shorthand name given to Christiansborg Slot, the building in central Copenhagen that houses the Danish Parliament, Supreme Court and Prime Minister's office. There's been a building on the site since the 1100's, but structures have burned down and been rebuilt several times. The current building dates from the early twentieth century.
Borgen is also the name of a Danish television series that has enjoyed great success, both here and abroad (my wife has just been on an exchange programme with her school in Belgium, and says that they talk of nothing else). It's about a woman, who becomes Prime Minister, and about the intrigues and political difficulties that she faces, and the pressures that are made on her private life. A lot of the issues are very topical in Danish politics.
Tonight was the tenth and last episode in the third series, which apparently will be the last. For readers outside of Denmark who have had to be satisfied with the first two series, I will not reveal what happens in the end. But it goes out on a high note.
Walter Blotscher
Borgen (literally "the castle") is the shorthand name given to Christiansborg Slot, the building in central Copenhagen that houses the Danish Parliament, Supreme Court and Prime Minister's office. There's been a building on the site since the 1100's, but structures have burned down and been rebuilt several times. The current building dates from the early twentieth century.
Borgen is also the name of a Danish television series that has enjoyed great success, both here and abroad (my wife has just been on an exchange programme with her school in Belgium, and says that they talk of nothing else). It's about a woman, who becomes Prime Minister, and about the intrigues and political difficulties that she faces, and the pressures that are made on her private life. A lot of the issues are very topical in Danish politics.
Tonight was the tenth and last episode in the third series, which apparently will be the last. For readers outside of Denmark who have had to be satisfied with the first two series, I will not reveal what happens in the end. But it goes out on a high note.
Walter Blotscher
Saturday 9 March 2013
DANISH POLITICS (3)
The Danish Government's popularity is in freefall. Last autumn it was the Socialists who found that changing their leader was not the answer. Now, however, the sickness is affecting the Social Democrats, the party of Prime Minister Helle Thorning-Schmidt. After a series of spring packages that were decidedly un-social democratic, the effect on the population can be measured.
The latest Gallup poll shows support for the Social Democrats, the traditional Danish party of Government, on just 17.1%, which is eight percentage points lower than their general election result in the autumn of 2011. You have to go back to the general election of 1898, in the days before opinion polls, to find such a low figure.
In one sense, opinion polls between elections are irrelevant, what matters is the result. However, this is a minority coalition Government, which can only get measures passed with the support of the former communist Enhedslisten. Their support was put at 12.5%, the highest figure ever. Enhedslisten are more than upset about the right-wing element in the packages, so how long before they decide to down the Government? The obvious time is during the discussions over next year's budget. Watch this space.
Walter Blotscher
The Danish Government's popularity is in freefall. Last autumn it was the Socialists who found that changing their leader was not the answer. Now, however, the sickness is affecting the Social Democrats, the party of Prime Minister Helle Thorning-Schmidt. After a series of spring packages that were decidedly un-social democratic, the effect on the population can be measured.
The latest Gallup poll shows support for the Social Democrats, the traditional Danish party of Government, on just 17.1%, which is eight percentage points lower than their general election result in the autumn of 2011. You have to go back to the general election of 1898, in the days before opinion polls, to find such a low figure.
In one sense, opinion polls between elections are irrelevant, what matters is the result. However, this is a minority coalition Government, which can only get measures passed with the support of the former communist Enhedslisten. Their support was put at 12.5%, the highest figure ever. Enhedslisten are more than upset about the right-wing element in the packages, so how long before they decide to down the Government? The obvious time is during the discussions over next year's budget. Watch this space.
Walter Blotscher
Friday 8 March 2013
ICE HOCKEY (6)
This evening I went to watch the local Odense ice hockey team with my son. It's the quarter finals of the national play-offs, a best-of-seven series against Aalborg. Before today's match Odense were surprisingly up 2-1, and they won again tonight by 3 goals to 2, to make it 3-1. Four of the goals were scored at our end of the rink, which was good.
Between the first and second periods we had a beer and a "ribbensandwich". The latter is a lot of roast pork and crackling, stuffed into a large bun together with red cabbage and pickled cucumber. I don't think I have had one since my daughter turned vegetarian, which was some time ago. It was delicious.
Walter Blotscher
This evening I went to watch the local Odense ice hockey team with my son. It's the quarter finals of the national play-offs, a best-of-seven series against Aalborg. Before today's match Odense were surprisingly up 2-1, and they won again tonight by 3 goals to 2, to make it 3-1. Four of the goals were scored at our end of the rink, which was good.
Between the first and second periods we had a beer and a "ribbensandwich". The latter is a lot of roast pork and crackling, stuffed into a large bun together with red cabbage and pickled cucumber. I don't think I have had one since my daughter turned vegetarian, which was some time ago. It was delicious.
Walter Blotscher
Thursday 7 March 2013
HUGO CHAVEZ
Despite four operations and repeated assurances that he was cured, Hugo Chavez has died of cancer after 14 years as President of Venezuela. The pictures from Caracas show clearly that he was hugely popular, revered even, amongst a substantial part of the country. What is his legacy?
A former army officer, who led a failed coup in the early 1990's and ended up being jailed, Mr. Chavez was the embodiment of a strong political strain in Latin America, namely the militaristic populist. This has traditionally manifested itself in right-wing dictatorships. Mr. Chavez was different in that he spoke the language of left-wing revolution, with the example of Cuba to the forefront; but his rule was a dictatorship, nevertheless. The courts were packed with sympathisers, opponents were emasculated by decrees or nationalisation of their businesses, public finances were murky. Domestic problems were swept aside in a fierce rhetoric against anybody abroad who disagreed with him, notably America, and a series of friendships with unsavoury people elsewhere; Iran, for example.
The reason he could do this was oil, of which Venezuela produces a lot. Under Mr. Chavez the national oil company became a personal fiefdom, with its riches diverted to social programmes. These programmes provided the basis for his popularity with the masses, which meant that he could be reelected last October, even though it was clear that he was very ill.
Unfortunately for Venezuela, his model is not sustainable. The country exports a lot of oil, but virtually nothing else. The gap between the official exchange rate and the black market is enormous. Many of those social programmes have been started, but have not been seen through. And by concentrating all power in the presidency, there is no political infrastructure to take his ideas forward.
Indeed, the history of Mr. Chavez' politics is very similar to the history of Mr. Chavez' illness. Lots of bold statements, protestations that things were going well when it was clear that they were not, a refusal to admit reality, harsh words for anyone bold enough to disagree. In the end, medical reality set in. The question for Mr. Chavez' successor is whether political reality will set in, or whether Venezuela will follow the path of its revolutionary friend Cuba and condemn its people to poverty.
Walter Blotscher
Despite four operations and repeated assurances that he was cured, Hugo Chavez has died of cancer after 14 years as President of Venezuela. The pictures from Caracas show clearly that he was hugely popular, revered even, amongst a substantial part of the country. What is his legacy?
A former army officer, who led a failed coup in the early 1990's and ended up being jailed, Mr. Chavez was the embodiment of a strong political strain in Latin America, namely the militaristic populist. This has traditionally manifested itself in right-wing dictatorships. Mr. Chavez was different in that he spoke the language of left-wing revolution, with the example of Cuba to the forefront; but his rule was a dictatorship, nevertheless. The courts were packed with sympathisers, opponents were emasculated by decrees or nationalisation of their businesses, public finances were murky. Domestic problems were swept aside in a fierce rhetoric against anybody abroad who disagreed with him, notably America, and a series of friendships with unsavoury people elsewhere; Iran, for example.
The reason he could do this was oil, of which Venezuela produces a lot. Under Mr. Chavez the national oil company became a personal fiefdom, with its riches diverted to social programmes. These programmes provided the basis for his popularity with the masses, which meant that he could be reelected last October, even though it was clear that he was very ill.
Unfortunately for Venezuela, his model is not sustainable. The country exports a lot of oil, but virtually nothing else. The gap between the official exchange rate and the black market is enormous. Many of those social programmes have been started, but have not been seen through. And by concentrating all power in the presidency, there is no political infrastructure to take his ideas forward.
Indeed, the history of Mr. Chavez' politics is very similar to the history of Mr. Chavez' illness. Lots of bold statements, protestations that things were going well when it was clear that they were not, a refusal to admit reality, harsh words for anyone bold enough to disagree. In the end, medical reality set in. The question for Mr. Chavez' successor is whether political reality will set in, or whether Venezuela will follow the path of its revolutionary friend Cuba and condemn its people to poverty.
Walter Blotscher
Wednesday 6 March 2013
DANISH AID
Prime Minister Helle Thorning-Schmidt is on an African tour at the moment, and today it was Tanzania. The date is relevant, since it is exactly 50 years since Denmark started giving aid, with Tanzania as the first recipient. Over time, it has added up to lots and lots of money.
Having lived in Tanzania for eight years, I have seen many Danish aid projects. They tend to be well-designed, and efficiently run by well-educated expatriates. However, I would also say that most of them have turned out to be useless. Tanzania remains very poor.
The highlight of today's programme was an agreement that if Denmark caught pirates off the East African coast, then they would be brought to Tanzania and tried in local courts. The politicians said all the right things, but I have to say that I will believe that one when I see it.
Walter Blotscher
Prime Minister Helle Thorning-Schmidt is on an African tour at the moment, and today it was Tanzania. The date is relevant, since it is exactly 50 years since Denmark started giving aid, with Tanzania as the first recipient. Over time, it has added up to lots and lots of money.
Having lived in Tanzania for eight years, I have seen many Danish aid projects. They tend to be well-designed, and efficiently run by well-educated expatriates. However, I would also say that most of them have turned out to be useless. Tanzania remains very poor.
The highlight of today's programme was an agreement that if Denmark caught pirates off the East African coast, then they would be brought to Tanzania and tried in local courts. The politicians said all the right things, but I have to say that I will believe that one when I see it.
Walter Blotscher
Monday 4 March 2013
VASALOPPET
Vasaloppet ("the Vasa race") is the world's oldest, longest and biggest cross-country ski race. Run since 1922 on the first Sunday in March, the route covers 90km in Sweden from Sälen to Mora. Yesterday's event had 15,800 participants, including the Crown Prince of Denmark (for the second time) and Pippa Middleton, and a couple of million watching on television. It was won by a Norwegian in a time of just over three hours and fifty minutes.
The race commemorates the flight from Sweden (albeit in the opposite direction) in 1521 of King Gustav Vasa. For most of the Middle Ages, Norway, Sweden and Denmark were united under the Danish crown. Danish sovereignty over Norway was easier, since the crown was hereditary there, whereas it was elective in both Denmark and Sweden. So much of Scandinavian history between 1000 and 1500 is the history of those pesky Swedes repeatedly trying to gain their independence. Invasion, rebellion, battles and so on.
In 1520, Christian II, who was already King of Denmark and Norway and married to the sister of the Holy Roman Emperor Charles V, hit on a decidedly imperial strategy for gaining the Swedish throne. Invading Sweden, he defeated the Swedes at a battle where the leading Swedish pretender was mortally wounded. The Swedes then surrendered against a promise of amnesty for all rebels. On 4 November Christian was acclaimed hereditary king in Stockholm and launched a four-day long party. On the last day, in what came to be known as the Stockholm Bloodbath, he locked the city gates, and had a large proportion of the country's nobility and churchmen beheaded in the main square. The event triggered widespread revulsion throughout Europe, not necessarily because of its brutality, but because the king had so obviously broken his word.
Unfortunately for Christian, the young noble Gustav Vasa was not in Stockholm at the time, and managed to flee the country. As one of the few remaining Swedish nobles left alive, he rallied his countrymen to his cause and founded the Vasa dynasty, which eventually wrested the throne from the Danes and put Sweden on the map as an independent country. Meanwhile, the Danish nobles tired of Christian's continued demands for money to supply troops for a fresh invasion. In 1523, the King lost his nerve and fled to the Netherlands, leaving the nobles to elect his uncle Frederik I in his place. In 1531 Christian tried to return to reclaim his throne. Tricked into coming to negotiations, he was taken prisoner and locked up in Sønderborg and Kalundborg castles for the rest of his life, eventually dying in January 1559 a few weeks after the death of Frederik's son Christian III. The Danish habit of having alternating kings called Frederik and Christian was now in full swing.
Apart from eventually leading to the Vasaloppet, the above events from Christian II's life form the backdrop to what many regard as the greatest Danish novel of the twentieth century, namely Kongens Fald ("the Fall of the King"), by Johannes V. Jensen, who won the Nobel prize for literature in 1944. When I first came to Denmark and had to learn Danish, I had to read Kongens Fald, which is one of only two novels that I have ever read in Danish (the other is Miss Smilla's Feeling for Snow). It's a very good book, if you ever get the chance to read it.
Walter Blotscher
Vasaloppet ("the Vasa race") is the world's oldest, longest and biggest cross-country ski race. Run since 1922 on the first Sunday in March, the route covers 90km in Sweden from Sälen to Mora. Yesterday's event had 15,800 participants, including the Crown Prince of Denmark (for the second time) and Pippa Middleton, and a couple of million watching on television. It was won by a Norwegian in a time of just over three hours and fifty minutes.
The race commemorates the flight from Sweden (albeit in the opposite direction) in 1521 of King Gustav Vasa. For most of the Middle Ages, Norway, Sweden and Denmark were united under the Danish crown. Danish sovereignty over Norway was easier, since the crown was hereditary there, whereas it was elective in both Denmark and Sweden. So much of Scandinavian history between 1000 and 1500 is the history of those pesky Swedes repeatedly trying to gain their independence. Invasion, rebellion, battles and so on.
In 1520, Christian II, who was already King of Denmark and Norway and married to the sister of the Holy Roman Emperor Charles V, hit on a decidedly imperial strategy for gaining the Swedish throne. Invading Sweden, he defeated the Swedes at a battle where the leading Swedish pretender was mortally wounded. The Swedes then surrendered against a promise of amnesty for all rebels. On 4 November Christian was acclaimed hereditary king in Stockholm and launched a four-day long party. On the last day, in what came to be known as the Stockholm Bloodbath, he locked the city gates, and had a large proportion of the country's nobility and churchmen beheaded in the main square. The event triggered widespread revulsion throughout Europe, not necessarily because of its brutality, but because the king had so obviously broken his word.
Unfortunately for Christian, the young noble Gustav Vasa was not in Stockholm at the time, and managed to flee the country. As one of the few remaining Swedish nobles left alive, he rallied his countrymen to his cause and founded the Vasa dynasty, which eventually wrested the throne from the Danes and put Sweden on the map as an independent country. Meanwhile, the Danish nobles tired of Christian's continued demands for money to supply troops for a fresh invasion. In 1523, the King lost his nerve and fled to the Netherlands, leaving the nobles to elect his uncle Frederik I in his place. In 1531 Christian tried to return to reclaim his throne. Tricked into coming to negotiations, he was taken prisoner and locked up in Sønderborg and Kalundborg castles for the rest of his life, eventually dying in January 1559 a few weeks after the death of Frederik's son Christian III. The Danish habit of having alternating kings called Frederik and Christian was now in full swing.
Apart from eventually leading to the Vasaloppet, the above events from Christian II's life form the backdrop to what many regard as the greatest Danish novel of the twentieth century, namely Kongens Fald ("the Fall of the King"), by Johannes V. Jensen, who won the Nobel prize for literature in 1944. When I first came to Denmark and had to learn Danish, I had to read Kongens Fald, which is one of only two novels that I have ever read in Danish (the other is Miss Smilla's Feeling for Snow). It's a very good book, if you ever get the chance to read it.
Walter Blotscher
Sunday 3 March 2013
Saturday 2 March 2013
PAPAL MONARCHY
As the papal conclave gets ready to meet and elect a new Pope, I have nearly finished R.W.Southern's excellent book "Western Society and the Church in the Middle Ages". The rise and eventual near-collapse of the papacy under the pressures of the Reformation is one of the key developments of the mediæval age. It's interesting to see why the Popes became pre-eminent, and why that pre-eminence eventually led to their downfall. The answer lies in the concept of papal monarchy.
For much of the first 1,000 years of the church, the Popes were merely one of many bishops. True, a very important bishop, since they were Bishop of Rome, the place where St. Peter had been martyred and was buried. But by around the middle of the eleventh century, a series of energetic and reforming Popes had sketched out a theory of papal monarchy; By virtue of their position as Vicars of Christ on earth, they had inherited a "plenitude of power", which gave them both spiritual and temporal supreme authority.
On the spiritual side, this was not a problem, at least at first. Kings had before this period had a sort of priestly function, epitomised by their being anointed with oil at their coronation. But the Carolingian empire which best embodied this ideal had broken up, and people were looking for an alternative spiritual leader. Kings were happy to let this leadership pass to the papacy, not least because they did well out of the ecclesiastical system as a whole. Henry III of England was happy for the Pope to get his way eventually in his choice of Bishop of Winchester, probably the richest diocese in the country. But that was because the case dragged on for five years, during which time the see was vacant and the king got to spend the revenues as he pleased.
However, on the temporal side, the idea was a failure. "He who denies that the secular sword is in the power of Peter does not understand the words of the Lord" said Boniface VIII in 1302. The problem was that the idea was so absurd that nobody had to deny it. Unlike on the spiritual side, where the Pope could intervene in a myriad of ways, and where the Curia had become the leading judicial court in Europe, the Papacy lacked the usual ultimate weapon of decision-making (armed force), and so had to rely on agents to do its bidding. If those agents, notably the Emperor, disagreed with him (and he often did), then the Pope was powerless on the international stage. Within Italy, where the Popes controlled the Papal States as their own mini-kingdom, they were one out of many territorial magnates. As such, they were involved in the normal fights and squabbles which territorial magnates of the time carried out on, and with, each other.
Seeing the Pope as a feudal lord behaving badly eventually came to undermine the spiritual side of the equation. Men started to question whether there was really a need for a Pope at all, and whether a more personal relationship with God that bypassed the ecclesiastical structure might be the way forward. This was a potentially explosive idea, that still needed a spark to ignite it, and a man to light the fuse. The spark was the question of indulgences, a sort of spiritual currency that eventually incurred severe inflation; the man was Martin Luther.
The Reformation nearly destroyed the established church; in the end, it merely divided it. Forceful men, not all of them Popes, rescued it in its hour of need, and gave it a resilience, which it still has today. In some parts of the world, Catholicism is a declining force; in others, notably Africa, it is thriving.
Yet although we live in 2013, the question that floored the Papacy in the Middle Ages still exists. Is the Pope a leader in spiritual matters alone, or is he someone who should also lead/meddle (take your pick) in temporal matters as well? Those temporal matters - abortion, stem cell research, contraception, gay marriage - are not the same as the ones that exercised the Popes of the Middle Ages. Nevertheless, the Pope that is shortly to be chosen needs to think carefully about his role in trying to decide them.
Walter Blotscher
As the papal conclave gets ready to meet and elect a new Pope, I have nearly finished R.W.Southern's excellent book "Western Society and the Church in the Middle Ages". The rise and eventual near-collapse of the papacy under the pressures of the Reformation is one of the key developments of the mediæval age. It's interesting to see why the Popes became pre-eminent, and why that pre-eminence eventually led to their downfall. The answer lies in the concept of papal monarchy.
For much of the first 1,000 years of the church, the Popes were merely one of many bishops. True, a very important bishop, since they were Bishop of Rome, the place where St. Peter had been martyred and was buried. But by around the middle of the eleventh century, a series of energetic and reforming Popes had sketched out a theory of papal monarchy; By virtue of their position as Vicars of Christ on earth, they had inherited a "plenitude of power", which gave them both spiritual and temporal supreme authority.
On the spiritual side, this was not a problem, at least at first. Kings had before this period had a sort of priestly function, epitomised by their being anointed with oil at their coronation. But the Carolingian empire which best embodied this ideal had broken up, and people were looking for an alternative spiritual leader. Kings were happy to let this leadership pass to the papacy, not least because they did well out of the ecclesiastical system as a whole. Henry III of England was happy for the Pope to get his way eventually in his choice of Bishop of Winchester, probably the richest diocese in the country. But that was because the case dragged on for five years, during which time the see was vacant and the king got to spend the revenues as he pleased.
However, on the temporal side, the idea was a failure. "He who denies that the secular sword is in the power of Peter does not understand the words of the Lord" said Boniface VIII in 1302. The problem was that the idea was so absurd that nobody had to deny it. Unlike on the spiritual side, where the Pope could intervene in a myriad of ways, and where the Curia had become the leading judicial court in Europe, the Papacy lacked the usual ultimate weapon of decision-making (armed force), and so had to rely on agents to do its bidding. If those agents, notably the Emperor, disagreed with him (and he often did), then the Pope was powerless on the international stage. Within Italy, where the Popes controlled the Papal States as their own mini-kingdom, they were one out of many territorial magnates. As such, they were involved in the normal fights and squabbles which territorial magnates of the time carried out on, and with, each other.
Seeing the Pope as a feudal lord behaving badly eventually came to undermine the spiritual side of the equation. Men started to question whether there was really a need for a Pope at all, and whether a more personal relationship with God that bypassed the ecclesiastical structure might be the way forward. This was a potentially explosive idea, that still needed a spark to ignite it, and a man to light the fuse. The spark was the question of indulgences, a sort of spiritual currency that eventually incurred severe inflation; the man was Martin Luther.
The Reformation nearly destroyed the established church; in the end, it merely divided it. Forceful men, not all of them Popes, rescued it in its hour of need, and gave it a resilience, which it still has today. In some parts of the world, Catholicism is a declining force; in others, notably Africa, it is thriving.
Yet although we live in 2013, the question that floored the Papacy in the Middle Ages still exists. Is the Pope a leader in spiritual matters alone, or is he someone who should also lead/meddle (take your pick) in temporal matters as well? Those temporal matters - abortion, stem cell research, contraception, gay marriage - are not the same as the ones that exercised the Popes of the Middle Ages. Nevertheless, the Pope that is shortly to be chosen needs to think carefully about his role in trying to decide them.
Walter Blotscher
Friday 1 March 2013
SCHOOL REFORM (2)
I said back in December that there was likely to be a massive fight between the teachers' unions and the local authorities over the Government's proposal to make teachers spend more time in the classroom. I was right.
After three months of haggling, the talks over a new contract have broken down. Yesterday the employers' organisation gave the unions formal notice of a lockout starting on 1 April. Under the Danish model, both sides have an Exocet weapon that they can use if contract negotiations don't lead to an agreement; the workers can strike and the employers can lock them out. The latter means that teachers are not allowed to go to work, and receive no pay during the lockout period. Children will have to stay at home.
This is not the whole story. The state conciliation service will try and mediate, and has the power to delay the lockout twice, each time by a maximum of two weeks. Parliament can also step in and legislate a solution (though politicians would be extremely reluctant to do this). But there is no doubt that the dispute has ratcheted up a notch or two.
The leaders of both sides were on the prime time news last night. Judging from their body language alone, I thought that the employers had the better case. Apparently a document from them has been on the table since 14 February, detailing the way in which teachers would have to work those increased hours. The teachers' leader said that there were a lot of detailed questions about this proposal which needed to be answered; but the overriding impression he gave was that teachers have not yet accepted the principle that they will have to spend more hours in the classroom. Given that fact, the negotiations were going nowhere, and the employers had no choice but to initiate the lockout procedure.
My impression is reinforced by the fact that the teachers' leader recently negotiated a new labour contract on behalf of all local authority employees. So it is not as if he can't negotiate and reach agreement. However, giving up cherished ways of doing things is not easy, and the existing ratio of preparation to class time is a very cherished yardstick for teachers. The local authorities (with the Government at their back) are determined to do away with it, and are prepared to hold the teachers unions' feet to the fire in order to get their way. Putting Danes on notice that their children may not be able to go to school, just as the exam season is starting, is a very effective way of keeping that fire going.
Walter Blotscher
I said back in December that there was likely to be a massive fight between the teachers' unions and the local authorities over the Government's proposal to make teachers spend more time in the classroom. I was right.
After three months of haggling, the talks over a new contract have broken down. Yesterday the employers' organisation gave the unions formal notice of a lockout starting on 1 April. Under the Danish model, both sides have an Exocet weapon that they can use if contract negotiations don't lead to an agreement; the workers can strike and the employers can lock them out. The latter means that teachers are not allowed to go to work, and receive no pay during the lockout period. Children will have to stay at home.
This is not the whole story. The state conciliation service will try and mediate, and has the power to delay the lockout twice, each time by a maximum of two weeks. Parliament can also step in and legislate a solution (though politicians would be extremely reluctant to do this). But there is no doubt that the dispute has ratcheted up a notch or two.
The leaders of both sides were on the prime time news last night. Judging from their body language alone, I thought that the employers had the better case. Apparently a document from them has been on the table since 14 February, detailing the way in which teachers would have to work those increased hours. The teachers' leader said that there were a lot of detailed questions about this proposal which needed to be answered; but the overriding impression he gave was that teachers have not yet accepted the principle that they will have to spend more hours in the classroom. Given that fact, the negotiations were going nowhere, and the employers had no choice but to initiate the lockout procedure.
My impression is reinforced by the fact that the teachers' leader recently negotiated a new labour contract on behalf of all local authority employees. So it is not as if he can't negotiate and reach agreement. However, giving up cherished ways of doing things is not easy, and the existing ratio of preparation to class time is a very cherished yardstick for teachers. The local authorities (with the Government at their back) are determined to do away with it, and are prepared to hold the teachers unions' feet to the fire in order to get their way. Putting Danes on notice that their children may not be able to go to school, just as the exam season is starting, is a very effective way of keeping that fire going.
Walter Blotscher
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