DRONES

We tend to think of drones as military bits of kit, that are used in far away places such as Afghanistan and Pakistan. However, technology is technology; and once the genie is out of the bottle, it is hard to put it back in.

This week saw the first conviction in Denmark of someone breaking the drone laws. These are in fact quite extensive; drones must fly at least 150 meters from any building or public highway, cannot fly higher than 100 meters, must be at least 5 km from a civilian aerodrome and 8 km from a military one, and must not put anybody's lives or property in danger. In built-up areas and similar (such as festivals, campsites etc) they are forbidden.

The man in question, who was fined kr.3,500, had got his drone to fly around his neighbourhood and look in through people's windows. It was the first such fine in Denmark; I suspect there will be many more in the future.

Walter Blotscher

ELECTRICIANS

The electrician was here today as part of the kitchen project. Electricians have the most difficult job in a building project, in my view, since they tend to do things in small bits. A builder builds a wall for a whole day, and then rings the electrician and asks him to put in a socket somewhere, which probably takes five minutes. Then he is sent away again.

Anyway, I was very pleased that he did come. He put cables under the floor of the TV room, so that we can hang the TV on the wall. He put a light in the shower above the shower head, a job which has been pending since we built the new bathroom in 2002. And he fixed the wall socket in the bathroom, which had a tendency to come out whenever the vacuum cleaner was attached to it.

All in all, a good day's work.

Walter Blotscher

GUY SCOTT

White people in positions of political power in Africa are one of the rarest breeds on the planet. After the way in which the European powers carved up the continent and then exploited it, that is perhaps not so surprising. So I applaud the appointment of Guy Scott to be interim President of Zambia.

Mr. Scott, an economist and farmer, has been Vice-President of the country since 2011, after serving as Agriculture Minister in the 1990's. The reason for his current appointment is the death in office this week of President Michael Sata, who appointed him to be his deputy. The vice-presidency doesn't hold much power, and Mr. Scott's main job is to hold things together until fresh elections are held within the next 90 days.

In those elections, Mr. Scott is unlikely to be a candidate. That is because the constitution bars people from the presidency unless they are "third generation" Zambian, which Mr. Scott is not. The clause was not put in to stop white people from running, but to debar former President Kenneth Kaunda from trying to get re-elected (Mr. Kaunda's father came from Malawi).

So Mr. Scott's tenure will not only be unusual, but probably very short. This has all the makings of a Trivial Pursuit question in 20 years' time.

Walter Blotscher

BRIDGE (13)

On Sunday I played in my first ever gold tournament. In Denmark, you get bronze, silver and gold points for winning various things, with silver being worth 10 or more times bronze and gold ten or more times silver. At the weekly club meeting, you can only win bronze points, so you have to play a tournament outside the club if you want to earn the other goodies.

After accumulating a certain number of points, you get a different title. and a different coloured etui for your bidding system card. My partner and I used to be Club Masters, then 1* Club Masters, then 2* Club Masters, all green. Now we are District Masters and have a red etui.

Some years ago, we won a tournament that was worth 15 silver points. Back then, the system was not digitalised, so I received a piece of paper. Not really knowing what it was worth, at some point I must have thrown the piece of paper away. So although my partner only ever really plays with me, he has a higher ranking because of those extra 15 silver points. I am currently ranked 2,999 in Denmark; he is ranked 2,775.

In the gold tournament, there were 36 pairs divided into three groups of 12. We were in the top group, which was both good and bad. Good because we were up against some strong players, who were challenging; bad because everybody else had a different coloured (and higher ranking) etui. 55 boards over a day is quite taxing, but we did OK, with 6 top scores, more than the average would predict. Unfortunately, we also got 12 bottom scores, and ended up last.

Still, we came home with a bottle of wine for our efforts, having won a "sprint" prize. On one board, we were the only people to bid and make 6 spades, whereas everybody else in the room bid 4 spades, which made with two overtricks. I enjoyed that hand.

Walter Blotscher

MOVEMBER (3)

I am growing a beard again, in order to be ready for Movember.

Nothing unusual in that. Though I can already tell that there are more grey streaks in it than before. I am ageing.

Walter Blotscher

AFGHANISTAN (3)

Britain has ended its combat operations in Afghanistan. Since the U.S.-led invasion in 2001, the U.K. has seen 140,000 soldiers serve there, at a cost of some £19 billion. 453 troops have died, many more have been wounded, a sizeable proportion for life.

Politicians have been scrambling over themselves to say that the cost has been worth it, and that Afghanistan is now able to stand on its own two feet. This is one big lie. The country was a mess when the West went in, it is still a mess today.

The arguments I made back in 2010 are still valid today. All that blood and treasure was a complete waste of resources. Future historians will judge it very badly.

Walter Blotscher

BRITAIN AND THE E.U. (2)

The sleepwalking to the exit scenario that I mentioned back in June looked a touch more likely today. That is because the U.K. has just been presented with a £1.6 billion bill from Brussels, as an additional contribution to the E.U.'s budget. Cue lots of frothing from the mouth. And not just from the usual suspects on the Conservative Party's backbenches, but also from Prime Minister David Cameron himself.

The reason for the bill is the adjustment to national accounts that all countries, not just E.U. Member States, are currently undergoing. With respect to Britain, that exercise has made the economy larger. Since contributions to the E.U. budget are made on the basis of the size of their economies, that means that Britain has to pay more.

Under normal circumstances, finding out that you have a bigger economy than you thought is a good thing (France, for instance, has discovered that its economy is smaller, and so gets £801 million back; Denmark gets £253 million back, an even greater amount relative to population). However, anything to do with the E.U. does not constitute normal circumstances in Britain, even though in this particular instance, the E.U. is getting about Euro 420 million less overall than it did before.

What is surprising is not so much the public reaction, but the fact that David Cameron didn't see it coming. After all, the contribution rules were agreed by all the Member States, and are very clear; and he must have been briefed by the Treasury about the economic statistics, not least because he will have wanted to brag about it. Somehow, though, the two things became disconnected in his brain. As I say, sleepwalking.

Walter Blotscher

PAYING FOR ASYLUM SEEKERS

Denmark is experiencing a boom in asylum seekers, notably (though not exclusively) from the Syrian conflict. The word has got out that the country is a good place to seek asylum. Many of those arriving are delivered by people smugglers or similar; but that doesn't alter the facts on the ground that Denmark is receiving around 3,000 asylum seekers a month.

This puts enormous pressure on local authorities that have to house and feed them, while their applications are being processed. All sorts of building - former schools, camping sites, village halls - are being put to use, putting a strain on integration with local Danes. And it costs a lot.

That cost, likely to be some kr.4.5 billion in 2015, has to be found from somewhere. The ingenious idea is that some kr.3.5 billion of it should be found from the foreign aid budget. Denmark has one of the most generous foreign aid programmes in the world, and is one of only a few countries that meet the U.N. target of 0.7% of GDP. The argument is that helping asylum seekers is in reality helping those foreigners most in need.

The problem of course is that withdrawing funding from poor countries may simply make it more likely that desperate people from those countries will want to flee and seek asylum in the rich West. However, that issue is for the future. The problem is acute and immediate, and money must be found. Raiding the foreign aid budget solves that.

Walter Blotscher  

THE KITCHEN PROJECT (3)

The kitchen project is proceeding apace; bashing has finished, building up again has begun. The builders have finished putting in an RSJ, and the carpenters are busy constructing (insulated) inner walls. Everybody should be finished by next Monday, when the painter can move in, and do her bit before the kitchen units arrive at the end of next week.

It's looking good!

Walter Blotscher

AUTUMN WEATHER

What a fantastically mild autumn we are having. I am gobsmacked, as they say.

Walter Blotscher

PUBLIC SECTOR PRICE CEILINGS

One of the - in my view - iron laws of public policy is that if the state provides a service, for which the citizen pays a price, and that price is legally capped, then the price will very quickly end up at that maximum. A good example was university tuition fees in the U.K., which were initially capped at £3,000 pa when first introduced, and then raised to £9,000 pa. No university today charges less than that.

So too in Denmark. Local authorities have to provide for citizens who can't look after themselves, either because they are old or because they are handicapped. But citizens have to make a contribution if they want full board. On 1 July 2009 that contribution was capped at kr.3,000 (roughly £300) a month, cheap by British standards. The maximum has since been raised to take account of inflation and today stands at kr.3,374.

Local authorities may not charge more than the actual cost of providing the service. But that has never really been the issue; high Danish wages will quickly make that irrelevant. The more pertinent question is whether they subsidise the service, so that the contribution is below the permitted maximum. Surprise, surprise, hardly any do.

Walter Blotscher

THE COST OF AGEING (2)

People in developed countries have longer and longer life expectancies. This is good in some ways, but not in others; looking after old people is expensive. 

In 2006, Denmark decided to raise the pension age, so that everybody got (on average) 14.5 years with a state pension. Back then, that meant raising it from 65 to 67 from 2027, with a phase-in period starting in 2024. In 2011, that was adjusted so that the 67-year rule is fully in place by 2022.

Demographic statistics show that if the 14.5 year rule is to hold, then the state pension age should be raised to 69 by 2030. Since the political parties also agreed that any increase of a year or more in the state pension age required a 15-year notice period, that decision needs to be taken next year. With a general election due by next September at the latest, that will require some courageous politicians.

Much is at stake. Indexing pension rights to life expectancy is estimated to benefit the state to the tune of 2.5% of GDP, or around kr.50 billion. As I said, looking after old people is expensive. And the easiest way to cut that cost is to (in effect) reclassify old people as "not old enough".

Walter Blotscher

AN IT GIANT

As part of the kitchen project, the painter disconnected the internet connection in the TV room, so that he could wallpaper the walls (today) and paint them (tomorrow). Unfortunately, he didn't reconnect it. Which meant that I couldn't check my E-Mails or do other internet stuff this evening, unless or until I reconnected it myself.

Which I did. It took a very long time, I admit; but I managed it. Which is why you can read this blog post.

Walter Blotscher

DEMENTIA

I have just read an article that says that people who constantly switch from one language to another have a greatly reduced chance of getting dementia in old age. Since I am one such person (I speak English at home and to some of my classes, and Danish the rest of the time), that cheered me up enormously.

Switching in this context is not the same as being bilingual. You could. for instance, be bilingual, but never (or hardly ever) speak the second language. An example would be if you were an adult, bilingual in English and Greenlandic, lived in London, and were married to a Brit though without children; in that case, you would be unlikely to speak much Greenlandic.

The idea is that in speaking one language and switching to another, you are constantly choosing between two ways of saying something, picking one and rejecting the other. This rejection is similar to shutting out background noise such as traffic, drilling, other conversations etc. It requires concentration and mental effort. And it is this effort, over many years, that reduces the chances of getting dementia. The brain is like any other muscle, it needs exercising; and the more exercise it gets, the more healthy it is likely to be.  

So there.

Walter Blotscher

ISRAEL AND PALESTINE (2)

Yesterday's vote by the British Parliament to recognise Palestine as a state was non-binding on the Government; David Cameron and other Ministers abstained. Official policy towards the Israel-Palestine conflict will not change. Yet despite that, it might just be a watershed. Until recently, Israel seemed to be winning the argument that the Palestinians were not yet ready to become a state. However, their recent heavy-handed onslaught in Gaza, that reduced much of it to rubble and killed lots of civilians, has convinced many outsiders that Israel will never accept that they are ready. So it is time to change their status.

About time too, in my view.

Walter Blotscher

THE KITCHEN PROJECT (2)

The kitchen project got going this morning, with the arrival of the builders. Walls have been knocked down, and one wall has been built up. All going to plan.

The only problem with building work is the dust. It gets - literally - everywhere.

Walter Blotscher

HISTORICAL ACCURACY

1864 was the year of Denmark's most humiliating defeat, by Prussia. It was also the making of the country, as it destroyed any pretensions to Great Power status; Denmark renounced war, turned inwards, and built a modern society. As part of the 150th anniversary of the event, DR (the Danish equivalent of the BBC) has made an 8-part drama series about the war. The cost is an eye-watering kr.173 million, and it includes all the suspects from previously successful DR drama series such as Borgen.

Condensing a complicated war into 8 hours of drama is not easy, and there has already been a long discussion in the press about historical accuracy (DR presenters are careful to say that the series is "inspired" by the events of 1864, but that apparently is not enough for some people). Into such discussion have inevitably waded politicians, who never miss an opportunity to miss an opportunity. Instead of saying something along the lines of "it's a drama series, not a history lesson", there are pious remarks about misrepresenting Danish nationalism, and other stuff. Blah, blah, blah.

A much more interesting and relevant question in my view is whether the series is any good. Judging from the first episode this evening, not brilliant. The structure is a bit tired (modern girl goes to work at a big house and finds the diary of a girl who lived during the war) and the various characters are a bit standard (two brothers who love the same girl, son of the big house loves the daughter of the bailiff etc). There is a danger of its lapsing into War and Peace minus Borodino and Napoleon.

Still, it's early days. I will be watching the remaining 7 episodes, for sure.

Walter Blotscher

A BIG FIRE (2)

My two brothers-in-law were highly efficient in bashing down the kitchen yesterday while I was at work. However, the result (apart from the empty internal hole) was a large pile of wood in the yard. What to do?

One of the advantages of living in the country is that you can do things not allowed for townspeople. So instead of loading the wood onto a trailer and taking it to the dump (six or seven times), I simply made a big pile in the middle of our field and burnt it. It was perfect burning weather; still and dry.

It also gave me the opportunity to get rid of the pile of garden rubbish, which I had tried to burn 18 months ago (and which has since got even larger). Half of it went today, and without using any petrol, the other half will go tomorrow, when it is also expected to be dry. All in all, a good start to my half-term holiday.

Walter Blotscher

THE KITCHEN PROJECT

The one bit of the house which we have not modernised is the kitchen. One of the reasons is that the job is not straightforward; the kitchen sits on a concrete "bath", on top of a small cellar. That makes it more difficult to work with than simply pulling up floorboards.

The downside of that construction is that there is no insulation in the kitchen, so it is very cold. My wife has been complaining about that for some while, and now is the time for something to be done about it. Tomorrow my two brothers-in-law are coming to bash down the old kitchen. Then on Monday builders will come to widen the door into the dining room and do other building stuff. Then the carpenter will arrive to insulate and build a new kitchen. It should all be ready by Christmas.

In the meantime, I will have to make coffee in the bedroom and find other people to give us dinner.

Walter Blotscher

THE KURDS

With a geographical homeland in Eastern Turkey, and parts of Iran, Iraq and Syria, the Kurds are often called the largest people on earth that don't have their own nation state. There was a fleeting opportunity to get one in the aftermath of the First World War, when the Ottoman Empire collapsed; but it faltered in the face of Franco-British opposition. So although Iraq, Syria and Lebanon all became new countries, Kurdistan did not.

Now, however, it is possible that the long-held dream might just become a reality. The reason is that in an area of mayhem and destruction, the Kurds are looking like the only thing holding together. The three artificially created entities above have all shown to varying degrees that it takes more than straight lines on a map to create a nation. Throw into that mix the appalling organisation called Islamic State, and the Kurds are looking attractive. If giving them a country is the price for their stopping IS' mooted caliphate, then that increasingly looks like one that the West would be prepared to pay.

Not everybody is happy, though. In particular, Turkey dislikes the idea of Kurdistan, something it has fought hard (and often brutally) against since the 1920's. That would explain why it is reluctant to help the Kurds battling against IS in the town of Kobane, the heart of a Syrian Kurdish enclave right against the Turkish border. The Turks are letting lots of refugees cross the border, but are unwilling to use tanks and other heavy weapons to help the Kurds break the IS siege of the town.  

A formal declaration of Kurdish statehood is unlikely any time soon. Assuming that IS can be tamed, what will probably emerge is a somewhat bigger version of the de facto state that the Kurds already have in northern Iraq. Nominally part of that country, but pretty much autonomous and left alone by the Government in Baghdad. Most Kurds would probably settle for that. After all, being left alone is a major improvement on being harassed, discriminated against, or persecuted.

Walter Blotscher

HEALTHCARE SPENDING

Benjamin Franklin once said that the only certainties in life were death and taxes. To that should be added, in rich countries at least, rising healthcare spending.

When the National Health Service was set up in the U.K. after the Second World War, Ministers cheerfully thought that within a decade or so, it would no longer be needed, since everybody would by then be cured and healthy. That is probably one of the most spectacular misjudgments of all time, as healthcare spending has increased relentlessly ever since, fuelled by two developments. First, doctors are devising ever more, and ever more expensive, treatments. When my Aunty had a hip replacement in the 1960's, it was cutting edge surgery. Now doctors think of such an operation in much the same way as a mechanic does when changing a tyre; they have moved on to more exciting stuff such as keeping premature babies alive at an ever smaller number of weeks.

Secondly, what the market supplies (healthcare) is not really what we want (which is good health). In many cases the two will match; if I break my leg in a clean fracture, then treatment will probably, though not always, make it good again. Yet nobody really knows why some people get cancer and others don't; and nobody really knows why some people get cured of it and others die.

Because of the market mismatch, sick individuals are willing to consume a potentially unlimited amount of healthcare. And because of technological developments, that healthcare gets more and more expensive. Nowhere is this truer than in America. In 1950 it spent 4.4% of its economy on healthcare; today, that figure is 17.2% of a (hugely bigger) economy. In other rich countries, today's percentage figure is not as high; but in all cases, it is a lot higher than it was 50 years ago.

At some point, you would think, the curve should stop rising. But why? The biggest consumers of healthcare are the elderly, who also happen to be the most assiduous voters. Any politician unwise enough to think of cutting their benefits is likely to be ousted pdq. Indeed, the advent of new diseases (SARS in China, Ebola virus in Africa, penicillin resistant swine flu in Denmark) will keep doctors busy with their researches for many years to come. Expect those healthcare costs to keep on rising.

Walter Blotscher

NEW CULTURE

The local cinema has bought a satellite dish, which allows it to stream live performances. Last Sunday we showed Billy Elliott live from London; and today we showed Der Rosenkavalier from the Royal Opera House in Copenhagen. Both were well-supported, and we made money from them.

We're bringing culture to the sticks.

Walter Blotscher

ECONOMIC SIZE

A lot depends on the size of a country's economy, GDP. To pick but one example, E.U. Member States are not supposed to run a budget deficit of more than 3% of GDP. The problem is that measuring GDP turns out to be quite difficult.

The statistics authorities in all developed countries are busily updating and improving the way in which they measure GDP. One change which will have a major effect is to reclassify research and development expenditure as an investment instead of a current cost. This will increase GDP in some years and reduce it in others. That in turn will change the economic growth rates that politicians are so keen to brag about.

In the case of Denmark, the country with the world's highest tax take, there is an added bonus. The share of the economy that goes in taxes is likely to be reduced by some 1.8 percentage points, the biggest fall in the tax take since 1975. Reclassifying turns out to be a lot easier than real cutting.

Walter Blotscher

FASANDRÆBERNE

Jussi Adler-Olsen is a Danish writer, whose dark, Scandinavian, crime novels have (like the Swedish Stieg Larsson millennium trilogy) sold in huge numbers. Five of them cover Department Q, a supposed backwater in police headquarters, which investigates unsolved cases dating back years.

They are now starting to film these. The first one, Kvinden i Buret ("the Woman in the Cage"), came out a year ago and was the most watched cinema film in Denmark in 2013. We had so many customers at the local cinema that we had to turn people away.

The second in the series, Fasandræberne ("the Pheasant Killers") had its premiere this week, and I watched it this evening. Because of last year's experience, we have decided to show it for two weeks, including extra performances late at night. As you'd expect, it follows the standard Scandinavian crime format popularised in series such as the Killing; dark lighting, slow developments, troubled heroes, dogged detective work rather than guns and action. The always watchable Nikolaj Lie Kaas plays detective Carl Mørck (mørk means dark in Danish, get it?), Fares Fares his immigrant sidekick Assad, who may not speak great Danish, but who always manages to come up with a crucial breakthrough in the case.

Very enjoyable. I am already looking forward to the third film in a year's time.

Walter Blotscher

POWER NAPS

I went to a trade fair in Copenhagen today. Up at 5.00 am, three hours in the car, standing all day, then three hours back again. Leaving the capital in the afternoon rush hour, I nearly fell asleep at the wheel. So I pulled into a motorway service station and had a power nap. Just 15 minutes or so, but it really worked.

Walter Blotscher

GREENLAND (3)

There were high hopes when Aleqa Hammond won the general election in March 2013 as the first female leader of the former colony. Today, 18 months later, Greenlandic politics are a mess.

The cause is a familiar one to students of colonial politics; money. It turns out that Ms. Hammond spent kr.106.363,27 of public funds on private flights and hotel bills for her family. The money has now been repaid, but only after repeated requests from the public auditor. On Tuesday, a vote of confidence was tabled in the national Parliament, which the Government only just won. Today, however, Ms. Hammond was ditched by her coalition partners, and resigned the leadership of her party. Fresh elections will be held on 28 November.

The amount involved (around £12,000) was not huge by the standards of other countries, but confirmed an impression amongst voters that politicians have their snouts in the trough. On Monday, one of Ms. Hammond's predecessors as leader resigned his Parliamentary seat, after it emerged that he too owed money to the state. Ms. Hammond had campaigned in 2013 on a promise to do away with all this sort of thing. The loss of credibility engendered by her behaviour was simply too great for her to remain in office.

For Greenland this is a disaster. The mooted investment boom in mineral extraction has been harder to realise than expected; while fishing (the lifeblood of many small towns and settlements) is in the doldrums. It is one thing for a former colony to want to stand on its own two feet, quite another for it to do so.

Walter Blotscher