BUILDING PERMITS
In decentralised Denmark, if you want to carry out a building project, you have to pay a fee to the local authority in order to have it processed. The renovation of the local cinema, for example, cost us about £200.
All fair and reasonable. However, it turns out that some local authorities are not fair and reasonable, particularly when it comes to commercial buildings. My daily newspaper carried out a survey of all 98 local authorities of what it would cost to process a standard commercial building project of some 5,000 sqm. The range of costs was staggering. In a dozen or so local authorities, it costs less than kr.5,000 (roughly £500), the cheapest being the island of Ærø at kr.1,830. At the other end of the scale, the two capital city local authorities of Copenhagen and Frederiksberg charge more than kr.800,000!!
As the building industry rightly point out, this is a tax by another name.
Walter Blotscher
PS I am off to the U.K. and Kenya today for a week, back blogging next Saturday.
Saturday 31 August 2013
Thursday 29 August 2013
DANISH AGRICULTURE (6)
Danish agriculture is beginning to make money again; but not enough to be able to reduce its collective debts. Despite record low interest rates in recent years, the sector's debt has risen inexorably from kr.193 billion in 2002 to kr.362 billion in 2012.
One consequence is that farmers end up being tied to the land. The rules about farming are already quite strict - only a qualified farmer may live on, and work, a farm, for instance - so this simply makes the system even more inelastic. The new Business Minister Henrik Sass Larsen has made making agriculture more flexible his top priority. And rightly so.
Walter Blotscher
Danish agriculture is beginning to make money again; but not enough to be able to reduce its collective debts. Despite record low interest rates in recent years, the sector's debt has risen inexorably from kr.193 billion in 2002 to kr.362 billion in 2012.
One consequence is that farmers end up being tied to the land. The rules about farming are already quite strict - only a qualified farmer may live on, and work, a farm, for instance - so this simply makes the system even more inelastic. The new Business Minister Henrik Sass Larsen has made making agriculture more flexible his top priority. And rightly so.
Walter Blotscher
Wednesday 28 August 2013
SYRIA (5)
To use a film analogy, Syria is looking increasingly like the third episode of the franchise Ill-Judged Foreign Intervention, following on from Ill-Judged Foreign Intervention I (Afghanistan) and Ill-Judged Foreign Intervention II (Iraq).
The plots of these films - and, since they take place for the vast majority of us on screens, they look pretty much like films - are remarkably similar. Bad things take place in far away places. Egoistic politicians, notably in medium-sized countries such as the U.K. and France that think they are still Great Powers, opine that "something must be done". Specious arguments about national security are usually added to the mix. Preparations are made for military intervention.
Since foreign military intervention in sovereign states is illegal under international law, attempts are made to get backing from the U.N. Security Council. These attempts get blocked, usually because Russia or China issues a veto. This is not acceptable to the egoistic politicians, so they seek ways to get round the impasse. Most of these are weasly, but are vigorously defended on the grounds of "moral imperative", "we owe it to the next generation" etc etc. Then there is military action; which goes on for a while, until everybody tires of it, and the same egoistic politicians try to get out of the mess that they have got into, while at the same time trumpeting its supposed successes. The country in question is left with a a lot of dead bodies, rubble and mess. But it's usually low level and so no longer makes the screens.
In the Syrian case, we haven't reached the end of the film, but we are coming to the last reel. Military intervention may well take place next week.
In saying this, I am in no way condoning what is happening in Syria. There are a lot of very bad people there, on both sides of the dispute. My point is merely that if large numbers of people want to kill each other in a modern state, then there is in fact very little that outsiders can do to stop it, unless and until the internal parties are ready to stop it. And there is much those outsiders can do to make it worse. You don't have to look to the Middle East or Central Asia to have this confirmed, what about Northern Ireland or even somewhere such as South Africa? It is only when the internal parties are willing to make the necessary compromises that the country concerned can move forward. External actors can nudge and prod, but they can't force compromise on people who don't want it.
In Syria, they don't want it; not yet, at any rate. But the powers in the West are not yet willing to accept that. The franchise still has life in it.
Walter Blotscher
To use a film analogy, Syria is looking increasingly like the third episode of the franchise Ill-Judged Foreign Intervention, following on from Ill-Judged Foreign Intervention I (Afghanistan) and Ill-Judged Foreign Intervention II (Iraq).
The plots of these films - and, since they take place for the vast majority of us on screens, they look pretty much like films - are remarkably similar. Bad things take place in far away places. Egoistic politicians, notably in medium-sized countries such as the U.K. and France that think they are still Great Powers, opine that "something must be done". Specious arguments about national security are usually added to the mix. Preparations are made for military intervention.
Since foreign military intervention in sovereign states is illegal under international law, attempts are made to get backing from the U.N. Security Council. These attempts get blocked, usually because Russia or China issues a veto. This is not acceptable to the egoistic politicians, so they seek ways to get round the impasse. Most of these are weasly, but are vigorously defended on the grounds of "moral imperative", "we owe it to the next generation" etc etc. Then there is military action; which goes on for a while, until everybody tires of it, and the same egoistic politicians try to get out of the mess that they have got into, while at the same time trumpeting its supposed successes. The country in question is left with a a lot of dead bodies, rubble and mess. But it's usually low level and so no longer makes the screens.
In the Syrian case, we haven't reached the end of the film, but we are coming to the last reel. Military intervention may well take place next week.
In saying this, I am in no way condoning what is happening in Syria. There are a lot of very bad people there, on both sides of the dispute. My point is merely that if large numbers of people want to kill each other in a modern state, then there is in fact very little that outsiders can do to stop it, unless and until the internal parties are ready to stop it. And there is much those outsiders can do to make it worse. You don't have to look to the Middle East or Central Asia to have this confirmed, what about Northern Ireland or even somewhere such as South Africa? It is only when the internal parties are willing to make the necessary compromises that the country concerned can move forward. External actors can nudge and prod, but they can't force compromise on people who don't want it.
In Syria, they don't want it; not yet, at any rate. But the powers in the West are not yet willing to accept that. The franchise still has life in it.
Walter Blotscher
Sunday 25 August 2013
A TALE OF TWO CHERRY TREES
The autumn before last, I finished off my new lawn by planting two cherry trees which I bought from my cherry farmer neighbour. He said that nothing would happen the first year, but that from the second year, they would take hold.
One duly has, as you can see below ......
The autumn before last, I finished off my new lawn by planting two cherry trees which I bought from my cherry farmer neighbour. He said that nothing would happen the first year, but that from the second year, they would take hold.
One duly has, as you can see below ......
..... but the other one has not.
I suppose that one out of two isn't bad.
Walter Blotscher
Saturday 24 August 2013
TAX TRUST
If you have the highest tax take of any country in the world, as Denmark does, then it makes sense to have a tax authority that all of your citizens can trust. Unfortunately, Danish citizens' trust in Skat has taken a series of major knocks in recent months.
First, there has been the drip, drip of revelations relating to the case of the tax status of Stephen Kinnock, the British wife of Prime Minister Helle Thorning-Schmidt. It is still not clear exactly who did what, and when (an official commission is busy digging); but it seems as if various officials, notably the Head of the Tax Ministry, interfered in order to try and get a politically satisfactory result.
Secondly, it is clear that Skat went aggressively after people they thought were trying to evade tax. So aggressively in fact, that they may have broken the law. Lawyers are currently collating evidence that may lead to these officials' being fired.
However, it is the latest revelations that will have had the worst impact, since they apply to many, many taxpayers. It turns out that since 2003, when Skat was given responsibility for valuing property for tax purposes, up to three out of every four valuations have been wrong. Even worse, both Skat and the six Tax Ministers who have held the post since then, have known about the problems and done nothing about them.
In Denmark, property taxes are an important part of local authority finance. From a tax administration point of view, they are good taxes. There are fewer properties than there are people, they tend not to move or hide themselves, and taxing them is broadly progressive (bigger houses are generally owned by richer people). Furthermore, taxing property helps to dampen speculative bubbles. The only disadvantage is that they tend to be paid in one go, so taxpayers know (in contrast to, say, VAT) exactly how much they pay each year.
Although some people will have gained from Skat's mess-up, they are unlikely to shout very loudly. Those adversely affected will, however, shout very loudly indeed. In other words, this is an unmitigated disaster for the tax authorities, and yet another blow to Denmark's famous welfare society.
Walter Blotscher
If you have the highest tax take of any country in the world, as Denmark does, then it makes sense to have a tax authority that all of your citizens can trust. Unfortunately, Danish citizens' trust in Skat has taken a series of major knocks in recent months.
First, there has been the drip, drip of revelations relating to the case of the tax status of Stephen Kinnock, the British wife of Prime Minister Helle Thorning-Schmidt. It is still not clear exactly who did what, and when (an official commission is busy digging); but it seems as if various officials, notably the Head of the Tax Ministry, interfered in order to try and get a politically satisfactory result.
Secondly, it is clear that Skat went aggressively after people they thought were trying to evade tax. So aggressively in fact, that they may have broken the law. Lawyers are currently collating evidence that may lead to these officials' being fired.
However, it is the latest revelations that will have had the worst impact, since they apply to many, many taxpayers. It turns out that since 2003, when Skat was given responsibility for valuing property for tax purposes, up to three out of every four valuations have been wrong. Even worse, both Skat and the six Tax Ministers who have held the post since then, have known about the problems and done nothing about them.
In Denmark, property taxes are an important part of local authority finance. From a tax administration point of view, they are good taxes. There are fewer properties than there are people, they tend not to move or hide themselves, and taxing them is broadly progressive (bigger houses are generally owned by richer people). Furthermore, taxing property helps to dampen speculative bubbles. The only disadvantage is that they tend to be paid in one go, so taxpayers know (in contrast to, say, VAT) exactly how much they pay each year.
Although some people will have gained from Skat's mess-up, they are unlikely to shout very loudly. Those adversely affected will, however, shout very loudly indeed. In other words, this is an unmitigated disaster for the tax authorities, and yet another blow to Denmark's famous welfare society.
Walter Blotscher
Friday 23 August 2013
THE LITTLE MERMAID
Today is exactly 100 years since the statue the Little Mermaid was erected in Copenhagen harbour.
I have to say that I have never understood why everyone gets so excited by the Little Mermaid. I first saw it when I was inter-railing around Scandinavia as a 17-year old back in 1977, and my first impression of it was that it was, well, little. It also had a couple of Japanese tourists hanging all over it, which rather spoiled its charm.
Since then, it hasn't got any bigger, but the number of Japanese - and other- tourists certainly has. For some reason, they all seem to think it's great. Each to his own, I suppose.
Walter Blotscher
Today is exactly 100 years since the statue the Little Mermaid was erected in Copenhagen harbour.
I have to say that I have never understood why everyone gets so excited by the Little Mermaid. I first saw it when I was inter-railing around Scandinavia as a 17-year old back in 1977, and my first impression of it was that it was, well, little. It also had a couple of Japanese tourists hanging all over it, which rather spoiled its charm.
Since then, it hasn't got any bigger, but the number of Japanese - and other- tourists certainly has. For some reason, they all seem to think it's great. Each to his own, I suppose.
Walter Blotscher
Wednesday 21 August 2013
VESTAS
Vestas used to be a bit like Nokia; a Scandinavian champion that was the world's leading company in a sector, wind power, that seemed to be inexorably growing. Its hyperactive boss, Ditlev Engel, was an omnipresent figure at international gatherings of the good and the great. Denmark, a small country on the edge of an increasingly irrelevant continent, could still cut the mustard in some things.
Today Nokia is a shadow of its former self, as it has been overtaken by Apple and then Samsung. And so too is Vestas. When Mr Engel took over as Chief Executive on 1 May 2005, the share price was a lowly kr.73,50. During the next three years, there was only one way for it to go, as there was lots of money to go around and orders rolled in. The price topped on 17 June 2008 at kr.692, giving the company a market value of almost kr.130 billion. Four months later, Mr. Engel was duly crowned as Denmark's leader of the year.
Yet even at the moment of its greatest triumph, there were problems. Making windmills turned out to be not that difficult, and other countries could do it much more cheaply than expensive Danes. Furthermore, wind power remained uneconomic compared with fossil fuels and other forms of energy; when the financial crisis hit in 2008, the subsidies dried up. Only a few months after being crowned leader of the year, Mr. Engel was forced to announce a pre-tax loss for 2008 of kr.4.9 billion and a kr.6 billion rights issue.
Since then the share price has been in freefall. The bottom was reached last November when it hit kr.24. Since then, Mr. Engel's days have been numbered; the only question was when he would have to go. The answer to that was today.
Investors still believe that Vestas has a future; despite continuing losses in 2013, the share price is back up to kr.109, and it rose 5% on news of Mr. Engel's demise. However, while the shares are owned by many thousands of ordinary Danes, I wouldn't recommend buying them. The best that Vestas can hope for is to be bought up by one of those lower-cost competitors. Wind power is a good idea, and it may well turn out to be economic at some point in the future (though the shale gas revolution is pushing that point further and further away); it just won't be economic if Danes are making the kit.
Walter Blotscher
Vestas used to be a bit like Nokia; a Scandinavian champion that was the world's leading company in a sector, wind power, that seemed to be inexorably growing. Its hyperactive boss, Ditlev Engel, was an omnipresent figure at international gatherings of the good and the great. Denmark, a small country on the edge of an increasingly irrelevant continent, could still cut the mustard in some things.
Today Nokia is a shadow of its former self, as it has been overtaken by Apple and then Samsung. And so too is Vestas. When Mr Engel took over as Chief Executive on 1 May 2005, the share price was a lowly kr.73,50. During the next three years, there was only one way for it to go, as there was lots of money to go around and orders rolled in. The price topped on 17 June 2008 at kr.692, giving the company a market value of almost kr.130 billion. Four months later, Mr. Engel was duly crowned as Denmark's leader of the year.
Yet even at the moment of its greatest triumph, there were problems. Making windmills turned out to be not that difficult, and other countries could do it much more cheaply than expensive Danes. Furthermore, wind power remained uneconomic compared with fossil fuels and other forms of energy; when the financial crisis hit in 2008, the subsidies dried up. Only a few months after being crowned leader of the year, Mr. Engel was forced to announce a pre-tax loss for 2008 of kr.4.9 billion and a kr.6 billion rights issue.
Since then the share price has been in freefall. The bottom was reached last November when it hit kr.24. Since then, Mr. Engel's days have been numbered; the only question was when he would have to go. The answer to that was today.
Investors still believe that Vestas has a future; despite continuing losses in 2013, the share price is back up to kr.109, and it rose 5% on news of Mr. Engel's demise. However, while the shares are owned by many thousands of ordinary Danes, I wouldn't recommend buying them. The best that Vestas can hope for is to be bought up by one of those lower-cost competitors. Wind power is a good idea, and it may well turn out to be economic at some point in the future (though the shale gas revolution is pushing that point further and further away); it just won't be economic if Danes are making the kit.
Walter Blotscher
Tuesday 20 August 2013
BRIDGE (8)
Tonight I played bridge with my regular partner for the first time this summer. To say that we were rusty is more than a bit of an understatement. We forgot our convention system, misunderstood each other, forgot to count the points in our hand correctly, let our opponents win tricks by putting down the wrong cards. Etc etc etc.
The only good news was that this was summer bridge. As readers will know, bridge is a winter hobby, so the serious stuff doesn't start until 1 September. Which still leaves us a bit of time to wake up.
Walter Blotscher
Tonight I played bridge with my regular partner for the first time this summer. To say that we were rusty is more than a bit of an understatement. We forgot our convention system, misunderstood each other, forgot to count the points in our hand correctly, let our opponents win tricks by putting down the wrong cards. Etc etc etc.
The only good news was that this was summer bridge. As readers will know, bridge is a winter hobby, so the serious stuff doesn't start until 1 September. Which still leaves us a bit of time to wake up.
Walter Blotscher
Monday 19 August 2013
IRON PRINCE
Yesterday Copenhagen was host for the first time to an Ironman triathlon competition. This is a more than slightly nutty endurance race, which started in Hawaii and is now spreading around the world; 3.8km of swimming, followed by 180km of cycling, and then a full marathon of 42.195km.
One of the competitors was the 45-year old Frederik, Crown Prince of Denmark and heir to the throne. As such, he became the first ever member of a royal family to participate in, and get through, an Ironman (Trivial Pursuit addicts, take note).
There were roughly 2,600 participants and the Prince came in as number 505, in the very creditable time of 10 hours, 45 minutes and 32 seconds. Running Denmark in a couple of years' time should be much easier.
Walter Blotscher
Yesterday Copenhagen was host for the first time to an Ironman triathlon competition. This is a more than slightly nutty endurance race, which started in Hawaii and is now spreading around the world; 3.8km of swimming, followed by 180km of cycling, and then a full marathon of 42.195km.
One of the competitors was the 45-year old Frederik, Crown Prince of Denmark and heir to the throne. As such, he became the first ever member of a royal family to participate in, and get through, an Ironman (Trivial Pursuit addicts, take note).
There were roughly 2,600 participants and the Prince came in as number 505, in the very creditable time of 10 hours, 45 minutes and 32 seconds. Running Denmark in a couple of years' time should be much easier.
Walter Blotscher
Sunday 18 August 2013
EGYPT (2)
A month ago, I said that there would probably be more clashes between the pro- and anti-factions of ousted President Muhammed Morsi, and that they would be bloody. That prediction has now come to pass.
On Wednesday the new military Government decided to "clear" the protest camps set up by pro-Morsi supporters. Official figures put the number of deaths from the operation at 638, unofficial figures much higher. Neither include the many injured. On Friday, a further 173 died in a protest action against what had happened on Wednesday. And today, 36 prisoners suffocated to death from the effects of tear gas, while they were being transfered from one prison to another
Once a cycle of protest and violence has established itself, it is very difficult to stop it escalating. With the two camps having roughly equal backing amongst the general population, Egypt looks as if it is sliding inexorably into civil war. Not good.
Walter Blotscher
A month ago, I said that there would probably be more clashes between the pro- and anti-factions of ousted President Muhammed Morsi, and that they would be bloody. That prediction has now come to pass.
On Wednesday the new military Government decided to "clear" the protest camps set up by pro-Morsi supporters. Official figures put the number of deaths from the operation at 638, unofficial figures much higher. Neither include the many injured. On Friday, a further 173 died in a protest action against what had happened on Wednesday. And today, 36 prisoners suffocated to death from the effects of tear gas, while they were being transfered from one prison to another
Once a cycle of protest and violence has established itself, it is very difficult to stop it escalating. With the two camps having roughly equal backing amongst the general population, Egypt looks as if it is sliding inexorably into civil war. Not good.
Walter Blotscher
Saturday 17 August 2013
MOLE WARFARE (12)
I haven't seen a mole on mi hacienda since February. Until yesterday, when I came across some tell-tale signs. Not a big molehill, but sort of tracks under the ground. With lots of sun and little rain this summer, the ground is rock hard, so I suppose it's difficult to make a tunnel, even for a mole.
Anyway, I set my trap, and today I got him. Current score for 2013 is now Blotscher 2, Mole Army 0.
Walter Blotscher
I haven't seen a mole on mi hacienda since February. Until yesterday, when I came across some tell-tale signs. Not a big molehill, but sort of tracks under the ground. With lots of sun and little rain this summer, the ground is rock hard, so I suppose it's difficult to make a tunnel, even for a mole.
Anyway, I set my trap, and today I got him. Current score for 2013 is now Blotscher 2, Mole Army 0.
Walter Blotscher
Friday 16 August 2013
OLIVES
I have always found it difficult to make up my mind whether I like olives or not. In small doses (on a pizza, say, or in a stew) they're fine; the problem comes when they appear on their own, to be eaten as a pre-dinner appetiser. Some three years ago in Spain I decided definitively that I didn't like them. But then I went to Portugal this summer.
As in Spain, there are an awful lot of olives around in Portugal. However, what was different this time was that I learned that there are good olives and bad olives. Plump, firm black olives, eaten with cheese and cold Sagres beer as a starter, are delicious; slightly mushy green ones are not good with anything.
So my olive education continues. Next stop, I suppose, is Greece, to eat them with all of that feta cheese.
Walter Blotscher
I have always found it difficult to make up my mind whether I like olives or not. In small doses (on a pizza, say, or in a stew) they're fine; the problem comes when they appear on their own, to be eaten as a pre-dinner appetiser. Some three years ago in Spain I decided definitively that I didn't like them. But then I went to Portugal this summer.
As in Spain, there are an awful lot of olives around in Portugal. However, what was different this time was that I learned that there are good olives and bad olives. Plump, firm black olives, eaten with cheese and cold Sagres beer as a starter, are delicious; slightly mushy green ones are not good with anything.
So my olive education continues. Next stop, I suppose, is Greece, to eat them with all of that feta cheese.
Walter Blotscher
Tuesday 13 August 2013
INFLATION
One of my abiding memories of the 1970's in the U.K. was of regular announcements of 20%+ inflation. These were then promptly followed by the sight on the television news of union leaders traipsing into 10, Downing Street in order to demand wage increases that were even higher, 25% or even 30%. Since those were usually given, the result was unemployment. Mrs. Thatcher won the 1979 election on the slogan "Labour isn't working".
Today the world is rather different. Inflation in Denmark in July was 0.79%, the lowest figure in more than 40 years. Basically, prices are not rising at all.
One little noticed consequence of this is that although interest rates are low, they are still above the inflation rate, meaning that real interest rates are positive (though mildly so). That is in contrast to the 1970's, where interest rates of 20% or more were still negative in real terms. The 1970's were a good decade to owe money, since inflation eroded the real value of the obligation. The 2010's are not a good decade to owe money, since that obligation remains in real terms. As Greece, Portugal and others have discovered.
Walter Blotscher
One of my abiding memories of the 1970's in the U.K. was of regular announcements of 20%+ inflation. These were then promptly followed by the sight on the television news of union leaders traipsing into 10, Downing Street in order to demand wage increases that were even higher, 25% or even 30%. Since those were usually given, the result was unemployment. Mrs. Thatcher won the 1979 election on the slogan "Labour isn't working".
Today the world is rather different. Inflation in Denmark in July was 0.79%, the lowest figure in more than 40 years. Basically, prices are not rising at all.
One little noticed consequence of this is that although interest rates are low, they are still above the inflation rate, meaning that real interest rates are positive (though mildly so). That is in contrast to the 1970's, where interest rates of 20% or more were still negative in real terms. The 1970's were a good decade to owe money, since inflation eroded the real value of the obligation. The 2010's are not a good decade to owe money, since that obligation remains in real terms. As Greece, Portugal and others have discovered.
Walter Blotscher
Monday 12 August 2013
TAXIS AND POLITICS
Jens Stoltenberg, Norway's Social Democratic Prime Minister, is in the middle of a difficult reelection campaign, which opinion polls suggest he will lose. Although personally popular, it seems that voters are fed up with his party, and want a change.
In order to try and turn the campaign round, Mr. Stoltenberg tried an unusual tack. In June he spent an afternoon working as a taxi driver in Oslo, talking to ordinary citizens about their concerns. Their conversations were of course video'ed, and have now been put out on the party's Facebook site and such like.
It was a bold stunt. But probably not enough to secure him the Prime Minister's office.
Walter Blotscher
Jens Stoltenberg, Norway's Social Democratic Prime Minister, is in the middle of a difficult reelection campaign, which opinion polls suggest he will lose. Although personally popular, it seems that voters are fed up with his party, and want a change.
In order to try and turn the campaign round, Mr. Stoltenberg tried an unusual tack. In June he spent an afternoon working as a taxi driver in Oslo, talking to ordinary citizens about their concerns. Their conversations were of course video'ed, and have now been put out on the party's Facebook site and such like.
It was a bold stunt. But probably not enough to secure him the Prime Minister's office.
Walter Blotscher
Sunday 11 August 2013
JEG LIKER
One of the consequences of this internet/Facebook dominated world is the increasingly widespread use of English expressions. The most ubiquitous word today is probably "like"; every Facebook post written, for instance, allows you to click on it.
On the Danish version of Facebook the equivalent option is "synes om det" (which literally means "thinks well of"; oddly there is no single Danish word for like). But in ordinary parlance Danes use the English word, albeit with a twist. Danish verbs conjugate in the present tense by adding an r to the infinitive. So instead of saying jeg ("I") like, they say jeg liker. Which is grammatical nonsense, but a glimpse of the future.
Walter Blotscher
One of the consequences of this internet/Facebook dominated world is the increasingly widespread use of English expressions. The most ubiquitous word today is probably "like"; every Facebook post written, for instance, allows you to click on it.
On the Danish version of Facebook the equivalent option is "synes om det" (which literally means "thinks well of"; oddly there is no single Danish word for like). But in ordinary parlance Danes use the English word, albeit with a twist. Danish verbs conjugate in the present tense by adding an r to the infinitive. So instead of saying jeg ("I") like, they say jeg liker. Which is grammatical nonsense, but a glimpse of the future.
Walter Blotscher
Saturday 10 August 2013
REARRANGING THE DECKCHAIRS
There was a Government reshuffle in Denmark yesterday, almost exactly halfway through its 4-year term. Within the three party coalition, the main changes were to give the Social Democrats under Prime Minister Helle Thorning-Schmidt the business and growth portfolio, and the Socialists a beefed-up ministry dealing with social affairs. This was designed to allow the respective parties to play to their supposed traditional strengths.
The other main change was to bring in Henrik Sass Larsen, long Ms. Thorning-Schmidt's lieutenant and heir apparent, as that Business Minister. Mr. Sass Larsen was widely tipped to be Finance Minister after the election, but got tangled up (in rather murky circumstances) in a failed security clearance procedure, owing to links to a childhood friend who is now a member of a biker gang. He was partially rehabilitated a year ago, when he became head of the party's Parliamentary group; yesterday marks his complete return.
It's an indication of his value to the Prime Minister that the headline in my Danish newspaper this morning said "Sass to secure Thorning's reelection". While Mr. Sass Larsen will undoubtedly play a leading role in Government over the next two years, getting it reelected is probably beyond the power of any one man. The S/SF alliance currently sits at just over 30% in the opinion polls, one of which put the Social Democrats (the traditional powerhouse in Denmark and Scandinavia generally for almost all of the 20th century) below the far-right Danish People's Party. Polls go up and polls go down, but that must have been a particularly bitter pill to have to swallow.
The reshuffle was presented as paving the way for an ambitious Government programme in the second half of its life. I saw it more as rearranging the deckchairs on the Titanic. From the very start I have predicted that the next Danish Government will be a right-of-centre one under former Prime Minister Lars Løkke Rasmussen. I am sticking to that view.
Walter Blotscher
There was a Government reshuffle in Denmark yesterday, almost exactly halfway through its 4-year term. Within the three party coalition, the main changes were to give the Social Democrats under Prime Minister Helle Thorning-Schmidt the business and growth portfolio, and the Socialists a beefed-up ministry dealing with social affairs. This was designed to allow the respective parties to play to their supposed traditional strengths.
The other main change was to bring in Henrik Sass Larsen, long Ms. Thorning-Schmidt's lieutenant and heir apparent, as that Business Minister. Mr. Sass Larsen was widely tipped to be Finance Minister after the election, but got tangled up (in rather murky circumstances) in a failed security clearance procedure, owing to links to a childhood friend who is now a member of a biker gang. He was partially rehabilitated a year ago, when he became head of the party's Parliamentary group; yesterday marks his complete return.
It's an indication of his value to the Prime Minister that the headline in my Danish newspaper this morning said "Sass to secure Thorning's reelection". While Mr. Sass Larsen will undoubtedly play a leading role in Government over the next two years, getting it reelected is probably beyond the power of any one man. The S/SF alliance currently sits at just over 30% in the opinion polls, one of which put the Social Democrats (the traditional powerhouse in Denmark and Scandinavia generally for almost all of the 20th century) below the far-right Danish People's Party. Polls go up and polls go down, but that must have been a particularly bitter pill to have to swallow.
The reshuffle was presented as paving the way for an ambitious Government programme in the second half of its life. I saw it more as rearranging the deckchairs on the Titanic. From the very start I have predicted that the next Danish Government will be a right-of-centre one under former Prime Minister Lars Løkke Rasmussen. I am sticking to that view.
Walter Blotscher
Friday 9 August 2013
MY ROSE BED
As part of the 2011 Project, I built a rose bed in the middle of the new back lawn. But the roses got too much shade from the trees, so my mother-in-law suggested I build a new rose bed in the middle of the front lawn, and plant hostas in the old one. Which of course I then did.
To very good effect. For here is a picture of my roses enjoying an unusually sunny Danish summer.
Walter Blotscher
As part of the 2011 Project, I built a rose bed in the middle of the new back lawn. But the roses got too much shade from the trees, so my mother-in-law suggested I build a new rose bed in the middle of the front lawn, and plant hostas in the old one. Which of course I then did.
To very good effect. For here is a picture of my roses enjoying an unusually sunny Danish summer.
Walter Blotscher
Thursday 8 August 2013
DETROIT
What do you do if the population of the area you are supposed to run falls from 1.8 million to a mere 700,000 over a period of roughly 50 years, the fate that has befallen Detroit since the 1950's. In the Middle Ages, a king would presumably round up the remaining serfs and hike off to war in the neighbouring territory, aiming to kill the men and bring back the women and children as the basis for new population growth. Since such tactics are frowned upon in the 21st century, American mayors have to come up with something else. In Detroit's case, that was bankruptcy, the biggest municipal default in U.S. history.
Detroit made its name as a magnet for people wanting to work in the booming car industry. In the 1950's the big three of G.M., Ford and Chrysler made nearly all of the cars sold in the U.S., and a fair proportion in the rest of the world as well. In the mobile, post-war world, many of those workers were blacks getting out of the segregated southern states. They in turn formed the cultural base for Detroit's other great claim to fame, the Motown record label and associated music.
50 years later, the car industry has declined drastically, a general problem for Detroit that has been exacerbated by two specific ones. First, as incomes rose, families upped sticks and moved to the suburbs; today, only 30% of the jobs within the city are held by residents. Since most American cities' primary source of revenue is property taxes, this shifted income away from Detroit to the counties surrounding it. The second was chronic mismanagement in City Hall. Instead of adjusting services to the revenues coming in, politicians of all stripes went on gaily promising benefits to all, while doing nothing to prevent suburban flight. Detroit's debt today is estimated to be more than US$18 billion, or US$27,000 for every single resident. Roughly half of that figure represents the unfunded pension liabilities of municipal employees.
The state of Michigan has now stepped in and appointed an emergency manager. His job will be to cut a deal with creditors that a judge will accept. Assets will inevitably be sold, including the city's fine art collection. Lots of people will lose money or entitlements or both. But only then will there be a chance that Detroit can start to get back on its feet.
Detroit is admittedly an extreme case. But it does provide a very real confirmation that bad management (whether of businesses, countries, charities or any other organisation) does lead to bad results.
Walter Blotscher
What do you do if the population of the area you are supposed to run falls from 1.8 million to a mere 700,000 over a period of roughly 50 years, the fate that has befallen Detroit since the 1950's. In the Middle Ages, a king would presumably round up the remaining serfs and hike off to war in the neighbouring territory, aiming to kill the men and bring back the women and children as the basis for new population growth. Since such tactics are frowned upon in the 21st century, American mayors have to come up with something else. In Detroit's case, that was bankruptcy, the biggest municipal default in U.S. history.
Detroit made its name as a magnet for people wanting to work in the booming car industry. In the 1950's the big three of G.M., Ford and Chrysler made nearly all of the cars sold in the U.S., and a fair proportion in the rest of the world as well. In the mobile, post-war world, many of those workers were blacks getting out of the segregated southern states. They in turn formed the cultural base for Detroit's other great claim to fame, the Motown record label and associated music.
50 years later, the car industry has declined drastically, a general problem for Detroit that has been exacerbated by two specific ones. First, as incomes rose, families upped sticks and moved to the suburbs; today, only 30% of the jobs within the city are held by residents. Since most American cities' primary source of revenue is property taxes, this shifted income away from Detroit to the counties surrounding it. The second was chronic mismanagement in City Hall. Instead of adjusting services to the revenues coming in, politicians of all stripes went on gaily promising benefits to all, while doing nothing to prevent suburban flight. Detroit's debt today is estimated to be more than US$18 billion, or US$27,000 for every single resident. Roughly half of that figure represents the unfunded pension liabilities of municipal employees.
The state of Michigan has now stepped in and appointed an emergency manager. His job will be to cut a deal with creditors that a judge will accept. Assets will inevitably be sold, including the city's fine art collection. Lots of people will lose money or entitlements or both. But only then will there be a chance that Detroit can start to get back on its feet.
Detroit is admittedly an extreme case. But it does provide a very real confirmation that bad management (whether of businesses, countries, charities or any other organisation) does lead to bad results.
Walter Blotscher
Wednesday 7 August 2013
TOPLESS SUNBATHING
Some 20 years ago, hardly any self-respecting female over the age of 16 would have worn a top when sunbathing on a beach. Nowadays hardly anybody takes their top off. Like any change, this has both benefits and disadvantages.
I asked my 19-year old daughter, one of my advisers on matters female, why this should be so. Her somewhat surprising answer was that she thought it was because of shame. Basically, women are feeling less happy about their bodies than they used to, and so are less willing to expose them to possible public scrutiny.
I had expected her to say something about the risk of cancer, or similar. If she is right, then that is sad.
Walter Blotscher
Some 20 years ago, hardly any self-respecting female over the age of 16 would have worn a top when sunbathing on a beach. Nowadays hardly anybody takes their top off. Like any change, this has both benefits and disadvantages.
I asked my 19-year old daughter, one of my advisers on matters female, why this should be so. Her somewhat surprising answer was that she thought it was because of shame. Basically, women are feeling less happy about their bodies than they used to, and so are less willing to expose them to possible public scrutiny.
I had expected her to say something about the risk of cancer, or similar. If she is right, then that is sad.
Walter Blotscher
Tuesday 6 August 2013
PORT
The upper reaches of the Douro valley in north eastern Portugal became the world's first legally demarcated wine region in 1756 when the then king designated them as such. Only wine made from grapes grown in this region can be sold as "port". The name is taken from the port of Porto, which is situated a couple of miles upstream from the point at which the river empties into the Atlantic. The grapes, grown on steep (up to 30% gradient) rocky terraces, are harvested in the autumn and pressed by foot trampling (though robotic machines are slowly beginning to replace hoary men's feet). However, instead of letting the fermentation process take place for ten days or so, as in the case of wine, it is stopped after two days by adding grape brandy, which is why port has an alcohol content of 20-22% instead of wine's more normal 12-15%.
After spending the winter on the quinta or estate, the wine is transported down to warehouses in Porto, where it matures, before it is bottled and shipped. In olden times, the trip down the rocky river on special boats was pretty hazardous, but after damming the river and improving the road network it is no longer a life or death experience. In the warehouse, the wine is kept in oak barrels, huge vats for ruby port and small casks for tawny (it is the greater contact with the wood that gives the wine its tawny colour). Vintage port is a ruby port, usually the pick of the season, that is bottled after a mere two years or so in a vat, and then ages in the bottle itself. These ports command the highest prices, but there is always a risk that when they are opened, they are undrinkable (if, for instance, air has got in and contaminated it). Incidentally, used port barrels are highly prized by Scotch whisky makers, who buy them up before using them for their own particular tipple.
Britain has always been active in the port business. Portugal was England's first ever ally, way back in the time of Edward III in the fourteenth century, and the Treaty of Windsor in 1386 gave merchants from both countries equal production and trading rights. A century or so later a significant amount of port was being shipped to England, mainly in return for salt cod. In 1654 a new commercial treaty strengthened those rights, which were consolidated when the English king Charles II married a Portuguese princess Catherine of Braganza. However, what really gave a boost to the port market was Charles' long-running dispute with Louis XIV of France, which led first to increased duties on French wine and and then a total import ban. Entrepreneurial Brits took the opportunity to find an alternative wine source in Portugal. In those days, port was not a fortified wine as such, but the habit started of adding brandy to help preserve it during the long sea voyage. Quality control was strengthened with the 1756 designation (roughly a century before a similar exercise in Bordeaux). This was a reaction to the disastrous Lisbon earthquake which had taken place on 1 November the previous year, following which there was a move under the Marquis of Pombal to greater state control in many areas of Portuguese life.
My wife and I learned all this and much more recently during a tour of the warehouse in Porto of Graham's, perhaps the most aristocratic of the port labels (it was the favourite port of Winston Churchill, for instance). For a modest Euros10, you got the tour of their recently renovated warehouse complex on the south side of the river, plus the chance to sample six glasses of their port, three ruby and three tawny. I am not a great wine expert, but I know what I like, and I have to say that I like port rather a lot. Six glasses of port on a rather hot July afternoon is quite a lot. Since we had already had one free glass at another warehouse in the morning, and had another one as a nightcap in the main square of Porto that evening, I can honestly say that I have never drunk so much of the stuff in one day as I did then.
Walter Blotscher
The upper reaches of the Douro valley in north eastern Portugal became the world's first legally demarcated wine region in 1756 when the then king designated them as such. Only wine made from grapes grown in this region can be sold as "port". The name is taken from the port of Porto, which is situated a couple of miles upstream from the point at which the river empties into the Atlantic. The grapes, grown on steep (up to 30% gradient) rocky terraces, are harvested in the autumn and pressed by foot trampling (though robotic machines are slowly beginning to replace hoary men's feet). However, instead of letting the fermentation process take place for ten days or so, as in the case of wine, it is stopped after two days by adding grape brandy, which is why port has an alcohol content of 20-22% instead of wine's more normal 12-15%.
After spending the winter on the quinta or estate, the wine is transported down to warehouses in Porto, where it matures, before it is bottled and shipped. In olden times, the trip down the rocky river on special boats was pretty hazardous, but after damming the river and improving the road network it is no longer a life or death experience. In the warehouse, the wine is kept in oak barrels, huge vats for ruby port and small casks for tawny (it is the greater contact with the wood that gives the wine its tawny colour). Vintage port is a ruby port, usually the pick of the season, that is bottled after a mere two years or so in a vat, and then ages in the bottle itself. These ports command the highest prices, but there is always a risk that when they are opened, they are undrinkable (if, for instance, air has got in and contaminated it). Incidentally, used port barrels are highly prized by Scotch whisky makers, who buy them up before using them for their own particular tipple.
Britain has always been active in the port business. Portugal was England's first ever ally, way back in the time of Edward III in the fourteenth century, and the Treaty of Windsor in 1386 gave merchants from both countries equal production and trading rights. A century or so later a significant amount of port was being shipped to England, mainly in return for salt cod. In 1654 a new commercial treaty strengthened those rights, which were consolidated when the English king Charles II married a Portuguese princess Catherine of Braganza. However, what really gave a boost to the port market was Charles' long-running dispute with Louis XIV of France, which led first to increased duties on French wine and and then a total import ban. Entrepreneurial Brits took the opportunity to find an alternative wine source in Portugal. In those days, port was not a fortified wine as such, but the habit started of adding brandy to help preserve it during the long sea voyage. Quality control was strengthened with the 1756 designation (roughly a century before a similar exercise in Bordeaux). This was a reaction to the disastrous Lisbon earthquake which had taken place on 1 November the previous year, following which there was a move under the Marquis of Pombal to greater state control in many areas of Portuguese life.
My wife and I learned all this and much more recently during a tour of the warehouse in Porto of Graham's, perhaps the most aristocratic of the port labels (it was the favourite port of Winston Churchill, for instance). For a modest Euros10, you got the tour of their recently renovated warehouse complex on the south side of the river, plus the chance to sample six glasses of their port, three ruby and three tawny. I am not a great wine expert, but I know what I like, and I have to say that I like port rather a lot. Six glasses of port on a rather hot July afternoon is quite a lot. Since we had already had one free glass at another warehouse in the morning, and had another one as a nightcap in the main square of Porto that evening, I can honestly say that I have never drunk so much of the stuff in one day as I did then.
Walter Blotscher
Monday 5 August 2013
Sunday 4 August 2013
THE LOCAL CINEMA (8)
The reason I haven't blogged since I came back from Portugal last weekend is that I have been so incredibly busy with the renovation of the local cinema. I am however pleased to say that it is now finished, and that we will open on Tuesday evening as planned.
Here are before and after pictures of the inside. I am sure you'll agree that it is an improvement.
The reason I haven't blogged since I came back from Portugal last weekend is that I have been so incredibly busy with the renovation of the local cinema. I am however pleased to say that it is now finished, and that we will open on Tuesday evening as planned.
Here are before and after pictures of the inside. I am sure you'll agree that it is an improvement.
Walter Blotscher
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