PAYING FOR OTHERS
One of the themes of this blog is that the Danish welfare state is increasingly unaffordable. Another set of figures just released show - yet again - just how unaffordable.
It is one thing for people of working age to have to support pensioners. But people of working age also have to support other people of working age, who are, for one reason or another, not working and so not paying taxes. In Holland and Sweden, there are 5.6 people in work to support these non-workers; in the U.K. there are 5.0 and in Germany there are 4.8. However, in Denmark there are only 3.5.
What is worrying is not just the absolute difference, but the fact that the ratio is getting worse; as recently as 2008, there were 4.1 people between 15 and 64 supporting each person in that age group who were not working. The reforms of the past few years have all had the aim of increasing the number of people in the key 15-64 age group who are available for work; either by educating them better or encouraging them to become employed. The Government, and those affected, would say that those reforms have been major ones. The figures show that despite reforms, Denmark still has a long way to go if it wants to be able to finance its welfare state.
Walter Blotscher
Sunday 29 December 2013
Saturday 28 December 2013
HOLIDAY ENTERTAINMENT
"When I was a kid, we always used to go to the cinema on 26 December," said the head technician at the local cinema. "They'll never come between Christmas and New Year, there's too much else on," was the gloomy reply from a fellow Board member. Not being a Dane, I wouldn't know who was right.
This year we opened the cinema in the holiday period for the first time, showing Walking With Dinosaurs at 16.30 and the new Disney film Frozen at 19.30. In the first 4 days, we have had 191 customers, 80% for the latter, which will produce a nice tidy profit.
So I think we can reasonably say that my technician was right.
Walter Blotscher
"When I was a kid, we always used to go to the cinema on 26 December," said the head technician at the local cinema. "They'll never come between Christmas and New Year, there's too much else on," was the gloomy reply from a fellow Board member. Not being a Dane, I wouldn't know who was right.
This year we opened the cinema in the holiday period for the first time, showing Walking With Dinosaurs at 16.30 and the new Disney film Frozen at 19.30. In the first 4 days, we have had 191 customers, 80% for the latter, which will produce a nice tidy profit.
So I think we can reasonably say that my technician was right.
Walter Blotscher
Friday 27 December 2013
iPHONES
I got an iPhone for Christmas. It wasn't in fact a present, my wife simply changed her mobile telephone subscription. She, my daughter and I were all on her company's telephone subscription, which is one of those cheap and cheerful plans, that doesn't cost very much. Then, out of the blue, she was rung up by a seller from another telephone company; if she changed her subscription for us all over to the new company, then she could get three iPhones totally free.
This sounded very like one of those Nigerian blocked account scams, so my wife was understandably very suspicious. However, after lots of investigation, it turned out to be true. Sure, she had to commit to stay with the new company for a minimum three years. But that is never going to compensate the company for giving me an iPhone. Maybe they think I am a 17-year old?
My experience is that mobile phone pricing is one one of the most opaque systems in the world. Economists like to talk of perfect competition, where lots of buyers and sellers have access to perfect information about prices. However, trying to work out how mobile telephone companies make money must be exhausting.
But enough of that. I like my iPhone, and that is all that matters.
Walter Blotscher
I got an iPhone for Christmas. It wasn't in fact a present, my wife simply changed her mobile telephone subscription. She, my daughter and I were all on her company's telephone subscription, which is one of those cheap and cheerful plans, that doesn't cost very much. Then, out of the blue, she was rung up by a seller from another telephone company; if she changed her subscription for us all over to the new company, then she could get three iPhones totally free.
This sounded very like one of those Nigerian blocked account scams, so my wife was understandably very suspicious. However, after lots of investigation, it turned out to be true. Sure, she had to commit to stay with the new company for a minimum three years. But that is never going to compensate the company for giving me an iPhone. Maybe they think I am a 17-year old?
My experience is that mobile phone pricing is one one of the most opaque systems in the world. Economists like to talk of perfect competition, where lots of buyers and sellers have access to perfect information about prices. However, trying to work out how mobile telephone companies make money must be exhausting.
But enough of that. I like my iPhone, and that is all that matters.
Walter Blotscher
Thursday 26 December 2013
MIDNIGHT MASS
Danes are no longer particularly religious, but they do still tend to go to church at Christmas, as a social event. 16.00 pm on Christmas Eve is the traditional time in my town, which, with a 45 minute carol service, gives just enough time to get home, take the duck or pork (turkey in our family, but that's an English eccentricity) out of the oven, and get ready to eat at precisely 18.00 pm.
Against that background, it was a bit of a radical suggestion in the parish council to hold a midnight mass this year for the first time. Not least because such a mass is more usually associated with the Catholic church, and Denmark is, if it is anything, staunchly Lutheran. Since my wife is on the parish council and it was 50% her idea, we in her family of course had to back her up. But we weren't sure if we would be the only people in the church when we turned up, full of food and drink, at 23.30 pm. As it happens, she needn't have worried; the church was packed. And not at the expense of the 16.00 pm service; that had been packed as well.
Looking back at it 24 hours later, and reinforced in my pondering by my current rereading of Diarmaid MacCulloch's magisterial book Reformation, what does that mean? Quite obviously it was satisfying an unmet need, but a need for what? A counterbalance to the materialism of Christmas? An expression of societal solidarity? I am not sure. However, what I am sure about is the ability of the Christian church to survive as an organisation. Its survival may be threatened at times, by other religions, by internal strife, even by indifference. But survive it does.
I am not a fan of organised Christianity. But I am an admirer.
Walter Blotscher
Danes are no longer particularly religious, but they do still tend to go to church at Christmas, as a social event. 16.00 pm on Christmas Eve is the traditional time in my town, which, with a 45 minute carol service, gives just enough time to get home, take the duck or pork (turkey in our family, but that's an English eccentricity) out of the oven, and get ready to eat at precisely 18.00 pm.
Against that background, it was a bit of a radical suggestion in the parish council to hold a midnight mass this year for the first time. Not least because such a mass is more usually associated with the Catholic church, and Denmark is, if it is anything, staunchly Lutheran. Since my wife is on the parish council and it was 50% her idea, we in her family of course had to back her up. But we weren't sure if we would be the only people in the church when we turned up, full of food and drink, at 23.30 pm. As it happens, she needn't have worried; the church was packed. And not at the expense of the 16.00 pm service; that had been packed as well.
Looking back at it 24 hours later, and reinforced in my pondering by my current rereading of Diarmaid MacCulloch's magisterial book Reformation, what does that mean? Quite obviously it was satisfying an unmet need, but a need for what? A counterbalance to the materialism of Christmas? An expression of societal solidarity? I am not sure. However, what I am sure about is the ability of the Christian church to survive as an organisation. Its survival may be threatened at times, by other religions, by internal strife, even by indifference. But survive it does.
I am not a fan of organised Christianity. But I am an admirer.
Walter Blotscher
Tuesday 24 December 2013
HIGH PRICES
Denmark is a high wage, high tax, high price society. I have always known that, but sometimes it helps to know just how high.
Compared with the average of the 28 E.U. countries, Danish consumer prices are 41% higher, the highest in Europe. The only countries with even higher prices are those economic oddballs, Norway and Switzerland.
What should worry Danish politicians is not just the fact that Denmark has the highest prices, but that there is a long way down to competitors. Sweden is next, at 29% above average; and the only other countries more than 20% above average are Luxemburg and Finland. Denmark's main export market Germany has only average prices, which is one reason why cross-border supermarket trade in Southern Jutland is booming.For the adventurous, there are even bigger bargains to be had. Bulgaria's and Romania's prices are 52% and 45% below average, though doing business there is not for the faint-hearted.
Denmark's VAT rate of 25% on everything is one of the main reasons for the discrepancy, but there are others; Europe's highest electricity prices, and hidden taxes on lots of parts of the production process. No wonder Danes spend less on Christmas presents than the European average, they simply have less to spend.
I am off to stuff the turkey. Have a great Christmas!
Walter Blotscher
Denmark is a high wage, high tax, high price society. I have always known that, but sometimes it helps to know just how high.
Compared with the average of the 28 E.U. countries, Danish consumer prices are 41% higher, the highest in Europe. The only countries with even higher prices are those economic oddballs, Norway and Switzerland.
What should worry Danish politicians is not just the fact that Denmark has the highest prices, but that there is a long way down to competitors. Sweden is next, at 29% above average; and the only other countries more than 20% above average are Luxemburg and Finland. Denmark's main export market Germany has only average prices, which is one reason why cross-border supermarket trade in Southern Jutland is booming.For the adventurous, there are even bigger bargains to be had. Bulgaria's and Romania's prices are 52% and 45% below average, though doing business there is not for the faint-hearted.
Denmark's VAT rate of 25% on everything is one of the main reasons for the discrepancy, but there are others; Europe's highest electricity prices, and hidden taxes on lots of parts of the production process. No wonder Danes spend less on Christmas presents than the European average, they simply have less to spend.
I am off to stuff the turkey. Have a great Christmas!
Walter Blotscher
Monday 23 December 2013
LUKKELOVEN (3)
It's amazing how quickly supermarkets have taken to the freedom given by the liberalisation of the lukkeloven ("closing law"). My local Netto will be open during the forthcoming holidays every day from 8.00 am to 22.00 pm. The only exceptions are Christmas Eve, the main day in Denmark, and New Year's Eve, where they will close at 15.00 pm; and New Year's Day, where they will close completely (presumably the idea is that nobody will shop then, since they will be too hungover).
Following in their wake will be the local cinema, where we have decided to open during the holidays for the first time, from 26-30 December. We are showing Walking With Dinosaurs and the new Disney film Frozen, both of which should be attractive to parents at a loss as to how to entertain their children. If we can get as much custom as the supermarkets obviously do, then we should be OK going into 2014.
Walter Blotscher
It's amazing how quickly supermarkets have taken to the freedom given by the liberalisation of the lukkeloven ("closing law"). My local Netto will be open during the forthcoming holidays every day from 8.00 am to 22.00 pm. The only exceptions are Christmas Eve, the main day in Denmark, and New Year's Eve, where they will close at 15.00 pm; and New Year's Day, where they will close completely (presumably the idea is that nobody will shop then, since they will be too hungover).
Following in their wake will be the local cinema, where we have decided to open during the holidays for the first time, from 26-30 December. We are showing Walking With Dinosaurs and the new Disney film Frozen, both of which should be attractive to parents at a loss as to how to entertain their children. If we can get as much custom as the supermarkets obviously do, then we should be OK going into 2014.
Walter Blotscher
Sunday 22 December 2013
A LAZY DAY (3)
The vagaries of the calendar mean that there is an extra day to prepare for Christmas this year. I did have plans for that day (today), but I'm afraid they did not materialise. I didn't get up until midday, having spent the morning reading a very interesting chapter in Reformation on the Catholic renewal in the 1540's that led to the Counter-Reformation. Then I watched the world handball championship bronze medal match (Denmark beat Poland), baked some mince pies, checked my mole traps, fetched my son home from Odense, had salmon for dinner (part of my workplace Christmas gift), and finally watched a very good Danish thriller Kongekabale. Altogether a lazy day.
Walter Blotscher
The vagaries of the calendar mean that there is an extra day to prepare for Christmas this year. I did have plans for that day (today), but I'm afraid they did not materialise. I didn't get up until midday, having spent the morning reading a very interesting chapter in Reformation on the Catholic renewal in the 1540's that led to the Counter-Reformation. Then I watched the world handball championship bronze medal match (Denmark beat Poland), baked some mince pies, checked my mole traps, fetched my son home from Odense, had salmon for dinner (part of my workplace Christmas gift), and finally watched a very good Danish thriller Kongekabale. Altogether a lazy day.
Walter Blotscher
Saturday 21 December 2013
SOUTH SUDAN
South Sudan is the world's newest country, a mere two years old. It was ridiculous that a big area largely inhabited by black Christians should be cobbled together on some nineteenth-century bureaucrat's map with an even bigger area largely inhabited by Muslim Arabs. It took decades of alternating high- and low-level civil war for the powers in Khartoum and elsewhere in the world to recognise this simple fact. In July 2011, the two areas went their separate ways.
However, just because you have made one geographical area less artificial doesn't mean that the lopped-off bit is homogeneous. Virtually every country in Africa is an artificial creation of the European imperial powers, and virtually all of them have suffered from the resulting problem; namely tribalism and a fight for resources. South Sudan is no different in that respect, except possibly that it has more resources than normal (in the form of oil) and even more limited capacity to exploit and manage them in a reasonable way. Ever since independence there have been tensions between the two largest tribes in the country, the Dinka and the Nuer, tensions which have almost certainly been fuelled by the resentful former power to the north. Those tensions have now exploded into what seems very like an ethnic civil war.
What can the world in general and the West in particular do in such a situation? Not much, in my view. Iraq, Afghanistan and Syria (plus a long list of others, Northern Ireland, for instance) should be lessons that if people in a country want to fight each other to the death, then there is not much that outsiders can do, unless and until those same people are willing to compromise and live together. At the moment, compromise seems not to be on the agenda. So we are reduced to prodding, trying to starve the flow of weapons (difficult, if not impossible) freezing bank accounts where possible, and trying to ameliorate the dire results of war by helping refugees.
That doesn't sound like much. But better to be realistic than to mouth platitudes that won't happen. It's sad that South Sudan has had so little peace; but viewed from a historical perspective, not so surprising.
Walter Blotscher
South Sudan is the world's newest country, a mere two years old. It was ridiculous that a big area largely inhabited by black Christians should be cobbled together on some nineteenth-century bureaucrat's map with an even bigger area largely inhabited by Muslim Arabs. It took decades of alternating high- and low-level civil war for the powers in Khartoum and elsewhere in the world to recognise this simple fact. In July 2011, the two areas went their separate ways.
However, just because you have made one geographical area less artificial doesn't mean that the lopped-off bit is homogeneous. Virtually every country in Africa is an artificial creation of the European imperial powers, and virtually all of them have suffered from the resulting problem; namely tribalism and a fight for resources. South Sudan is no different in that respect, except possibly that it has more resources than normal (in the form of oil) and even more limited capacity to exploit and manage them in a reasonable way. Ever since independence there have been tensions between the two largest tribes in the country, the Dinka and the Nuer, tensions which have almost certainly been fuelled by the resentful former power to the north. Those tensions have now exploded into what seems very like an ethnic civil war.
What can the world in general and the West in particular do in such a situation? Not much, in my view. Iraq, Afghanistan and Syria (plus a long list of others, Northern Ireland, for instance) should be lessons that if people in a country want to fight each other to the death, then there is not much that outsiders can do, unless and until those same people are willing to compromise and live together. At the moment, compromise seems not to be on the agenda. So we are reduced to prodding, trying to starve the flow of weapons (difficult, if not impossible) freezing bank accounts where possible, and trying to ameliorate the dire results of war by helping refugees.
That doesn't sound like much. But better to be realistic than to mouth platitudes that won't happen. It's sad that South Sudan has had so little peace; but viewed from a historical perspective, not so surprising.
Walter Blotscher
Friday 20 December 2013
PLAYING THE DRUMS
Today I played the drums for the first time ever in public. True, it was only a 3-piece combo, and we weren't very good. True, it was only the teaching staff's rendition at the end-of-term do. But I did manage to keep time, and I loved it.
The song? Rap and ("quack duck"), by Shubidua, a rock song played to the melody of White Christmas.
Walter Blotscher
Today I played the drums for the first time ever in public. True, it was only a 3-piece combo, and we weren't very good. True, it was only the teaching staff's rendition at the end-of-term do. But I did manage to keep time, and I loved it.
The song? Rap and ("quack duck"), by Shubidua, a rock song played to the melody of White Christmas.
Walter Blotscher
Wednesday 18 December 2013
AN EXPENSIVE INVESTIGATION
The commission set up two years ago to investigate the shenanigans, real or imagined, concerning the decision about the tax status of Prime Minister Helle Thorning-Schmidt's husband Stephen Kinnock has finished hearing witnesses. Now comes a long report, which will not be finalised until next September.
If that seems an unconscionably long time, then you should consider the cost, which is already up to kr.19.2 million (more than £2 million). That is not due to the commission itself, which only has three members. Fully 70% of the costs have gone to the lawyers who appear next to the witnesses. Each witness has the right to legal representation, paid for by the state, and that representation tends to be extremely expensive.
I would have thought that if you were merely answering questions of the "what did you do and when?" sort, then you wouldn't need legal representation. Or if you felt that you did, then it would be up to you to pay for it. Obviously Danish society thinks otherwise.
Meanwhile, the person at the centre of all this has decided that he has had enough. Mr. Kinnock announced this week that he will be seeking election as an M.P. in Wales at the next British general election. Being a British parliamentarian isn't much fun these days; but it seems that remaining in Denmark is even worse.
Walter Blotscher
The commission set up two years ago to investigate the shenanigans, real or imagined, concerning the decision about the tax status of Prime Minister Helle Thorning-Schmidt's husband Stephen Kinnock has finished hearing witnesses. Now comes a long report, which will not be finalised until next September.
If that seems an unconscionably long time, then you should consider the cost, which is already up to kr.19.2 million (more than £2 million). That is not due to the commission itself, which only has three members. Fully 70% of the costs have gone to the lawyers who appear next to the witnesses. Each witness has the right to legal representation, paid for by the state, and that representation tends to be extremely expensive.
I would have thought that if you were merely answering questions of the "what did you do and when?" sort, then you wouldn't need legal representation. Or if you felt that you did, then it would be up to you to pay for it. Obviously Danish society thinks otherwise.
Meanwhile, the person at the centre of all this has decided that he has had enough. Mr. Kinnock announced this week that he will be seeking election as an M.P. in Wales at the next British general election. Being a British parliamentarian isn't much fun these days; but it seems that remaining in Denmark is even worse.
Walter Blotscher
Tuesday 17 December 2013
JULEFROKOSTER (2)
This week it's julefrokoster-time again. Yesterday it was badminton, tonight it was bridge, later this week it's the gala at my school. Fortunately, the cinema do has been postponed until the new year, and the calendar means that there is an extra day next week before Christmas starts in earnest.
One good thing is that our autumnal success at the bridge club means that I don't have to buy wine for Christmas. I came home with three decent bottles of red wine, which should please my wife.
Walter Blotscher
This week it's julefrokoster-time again. Yesterday it was badminton, tonight it was bridge, later this week it's the gala at my school. Fortunately, the cinema do has been postponed until the new year, and the calendar means that there is an extra day next week before Christmas starts in earnest.
One good thing is that our autumnal success at the bridge club means that I don't have to buy wine for Christmas. I came home with three decent bottles of red wine, which should please my wife.
Walter Blotscher
Monday 16 December 2013
NELSON MANDELA
It's hard to think of anything original to say about Nelson Mandela, so I'll confine myself to two thoughts.
First, if you have been locked up by a racist regime for 27 years, then it would be difficult not to feel at least a twinge of bitterness against that regime, even if events showed that you had won the argument. Mr. Mandela's lack of bitterness was extraordinary, and was without doubt one of the key factors behind the peaceful transition in South Africa from apartheid to black majority rule.
Secondly, I loved his gesture at the rugby World Cup final in 1995, when as President, he met the two teams, South Africa and New Zealand, on the pitch before the game wearing a Springbok rugby jersey. Not many politicians, particularly one of his age, would have the nerve or the verve to wear sports clothes in any situation. But in choosing to meet the white population on their own terms (rugby being for them somewhat akin to a religion) he showed that he meant it when he said that he would be a President for all South Africans.
South Africa has not turned out the way he had hoped, and troubles lie ahead for it, in my view. But nobody could have done more.
Walter Blotscher
It's hard to think of anything original to say about Nelson Mandela, so I'll confine myself to two thoughts.
First, if you have been locked up by a racist regime for 27 years, then it would be difficult not to feel at least a twinge of bitterness against that regime, even if events showed that you had won the argument. Mr. Mandela's lack of bitterness was extraordinary, and was without doubt one of the key factors behind the peaceful transition in South Africa from apartheid to black majority rule.
Secondly, I loved his gesture at the rugby World Cup final in 1995, when as President, he met the two teams, South Africa and New Zealand, on the pitch before the game wearing a Springbok rugby jersey. Not many politicians, particularly one of his age, would have the nerve or the verve to wear sports clothes in any situation. But in choosing to meet the white population on their own terms (rugby being for them somewhat akin to a religion) he showed that he meant it when he said that he would be a President for all South Africans.
South Africa has not turned out the way he had hoped, and troubles lie ahead for it, in my view. But nobody could have done more.
Walter Blotscher
Sunday 15 December 2013
UNCLE CHANG
There are very few people outside the country who really know what goes on in North Korea. However, one thing is certain; the political fall and subsequent execution of Chang Song-thaek will require analysts to have a rethink.
Mr. Chang was a big cheese. His position was due in part to his marriage to Kim Kyung-Hee, daughter of North Korea's founding President, younger sister to his successor and aunt to the current leader Kim Jong-Un. At the funeral of Mr. Kim's father, Mr. Chang acompanied the coffin behind Mr. Kim, thereby signalling his importance. Given his powerful jobs in both the previous and current regimes, he was sidely seen as the power behind the throne, guiding the the inexperienced Mr. Kim as the latter consolidated his leadership.
All of that must now be reevaluated, as Mr. Chang was brutally eliminated. First, he was publicly arrested at a party meeting. Then he was put on trial, convicted, and executed almost immediately. State media described him in terms more usually associated with Maoist China; "worse than a dog" and "despicable scum" were some of the descriptions.
Outsiders will now spend the next few months poring over scraps of data, trying to figure out what is going on. My advice is not to bother; as I said before, the North Korean government is barmy. This latest episode confirms it.
Walter Blotscher
There are very few people outside the country who really know what goes on in North Korea. However, one thing is certain; the political fall and subsequent execution of Chang Song-thaek will require analysts to have a rethink.
Mr. Chang was a big cheese. His position was due in part to his marriage to Kim Kyung-Hee, daughter of North Korea's founding President, younger sister to his successor and aunt to the current leader Kim Jong-Un. At the funeral of Mr. Kim's father, Mr. Chang acompanied the coffin behind Mr. Kim, thereby signalling his importance. Given his powerful jobs in both the previous and current regimes, he was sidely seen as the power behind the throne, guiding the the inexperienced Mr. Kim as the latter consolidated his leadership.
All of that must now be reevaluated, as Mr. Chang was brutally eliminated. First, he was publicly arrested at a party meeting. Then he was put on trial, convicted, and executed almost immediately. State media described him in terms more usually associated with Maoist China; "worse than a dog" and "despicable scum" were some of the descriptions.
Outsiders will now spend the next few months poring over scraps of data, trying to figure out what is going on. My advice is not to bother; as I said before, the North Korean government is barmy. This latest episode confirms it.
Walter Blotscher
Friday 13 December 2013
THE AVIATION INDUSTRY
The old joke in the aviation industry is: "how do you make a small fortune in this business? Start with a large fortune". Making money, as opposed to having fun with large machines, has always been difficult in aviation and continues to be today. Just how difficult can be seen in the latest report from IATA, the industry's trade organisation. Worldwide profits are expected to be US$19.7 billion, which would be a record. US$19.7 billion is a pretty large dollop of change; however, those profits will be earned on revenues of some US$743 billion, giving a margin of just 2.6%.
To set things in context, putting all of the world's airlines together, they still earn only about half as much money as Apple. As I say, it's not easy to make money in aviation.
Walter Blotscher
The old joke in the aviation industry is: "how do you make a small fortune in this business? Start with a large fortune". Making money, as opposed to having fun with large machines, has always been difficult in aviation and continues to be today. Just how difficult can be seen in the latest report from IATA, the industry's trade organisation. Worldwide profits are expected to be US$19.7 billion, which would be a record. US$19.7 billion is a pretty large dollop of change; however, those profits will be earned on revenues of some US$743 billion, giving a margin of just 2.6%.
To set things in context, putting all of the world's airlines together, they still earn only about half as much money as Apple. As I say, it's not easy to make money in aviation.
Walter Blotscher
Thursday 12 December 2013
ANOTHER MINISTER GOES (2)
Denmark's Government lost another Minister yesterday, its Foreign Minister Villy Søvndal. Admittedly it was because of health problems. Mr. Søvndal had suffered a minor heart attack a month or so ago and was on sick leave, and took his doctor's advice that he should stop for good, not only at the Foreign Office but also in Parliament. Nevertheless, it was the second ministerial resignation in three days and the third within a short period of time, leaving Prime Minister Helle Thorning-Schmidt with a difficult reshuffle, and an overriding impression amongst voters that the government is pretty rudderless.
In the three-party coalition the Foreign Ministry belongs to the Socialists. The problem is that they didn't want to give it up, but the party lacks an obvious candidate with the necessary pondus to take it over. Former party leader Holger K. Nielsen came out of retirement a year ago to become Tax Minister; now he has moved up to take on the Foreign Office, despite having been a leading campaigner against the Maastricht Treaty back in 1992.
The Prime Minister insists that this is the last reshuffle before the next election, but she has to say that. Whether it is or not remains to be seen. Personally, I have to say I doubt it.
Walter Blotscher
Denmark's Government lost another Minister yesterday, its Foreign Minister Villy Søvndal. Admittedly it was because of health problems. Mr. Søvndal had suffered a minor heart attack a month or so ago and was on sick leave, and took his doctor's advice that he should stop for good, not only at the Foreign Office but also in Parliament. Nevertheless, it was the second ministerial resignation in three days and the third within a short period of time, leaving Prime Minister Helle Thorning-Schmidt with a difficult reshuffle, and an overriding impression amongst voters that the government is pretty rudderless.
In the three-party coalition the Foreign Ministry belongs to the Socialists. The problem is that they didn't want to give it up, but the party lacks an obvious candidate with the necessary pondus to take it over. Former party leader Holger K. Nielsen came out of retirement a year ago to become Tax Minister; now he has moved up to take on the Foreign Office, despite having been a leading campaigner against the Maastricht Treaty back in 1992.
The Prime Minister insists that this is the last reshuffle before the next election, but she has to say that. Whether it is or not remains to be seen. Personally, I have to say I doubt it.
Walter Blotscher
Wednesday 11 December 2013
LEGALISING MARIJUANA
Uruguay has just become the first country in the world to legalise the production, sale and consumption of marijuana. Everyone over 18 will be able to buy up to 40 grams a month, the trade being taxed and regulated just like alcohol and cigarettes are.
I have long thought that marijuana should be treated in the same way as the other two, so hopefully this will be the first of many changes to the drug industry. Despite huge investments in the "war on drugs", marijuana is freely available today virtually anywhere in the world. So the current policy has failed. If Uruguay's experiment succeeds, then it could well provide the blueprint for everyone else. Hat's off to them.
Walter Blotscher
Uruguay has just become the first country in the world to legalise the production, sale and consumption of marijuana. Everyone over 18 will be able to buy up to 40 grams a month, the trade being taxed and regulated just like alcohol and cigarettes are.
I have long thought that marijuana should be treated in the same way as the other two, so hopefully this will be the first of many changes to the drug industry. Despite huge investments in the "war on drugs", marijuana is freely available today virtually anywhere in the world. So the current policy has failed. If Uruguay's experiment succeeds, then it could well provide the blueprint for everyone else. Hat's off to them.
Walter Blotscher
Tuesday 10 December 2013
ANOTHER MINISTER GOES
Morten Bødskov resigned as Justice Minister this afternoon. His fate shows clearly just how careful politicians have to be.
Back in the spring of 2012 Parliament's Justice Committee decided to visit Christiania, the slightly lawless area of Copenhagen where hippies live and marijuana is smoked. The committee included Pia Kjærsgaard, the then leader of the far-right Danish People's Party. For some years, Ms. Kjærsgaard has had round-the-clock protection from PET, Denmark's intelligence service, because of threats to her person, so the visit was always going to be controversial. However, it could not take place at the time, since Copenhagen's police chief could not rearrange his diary in order to accompany them. However, it took place later that summer and without any problems.
So what's the story? On the face of it, nothing. The visit could not take place in February, it took place later. The problem is that the reason given, namely the police chief's diary, was not true; the Minister and the then head of the committee had made that up. The real reason was a threat evaluation by PET that the committee would be in danger.
This took a long time to emerge. The reason it did emerge was because of whistleblowers in PET, who were unhappy with the management style of the head of the organisation. They leaked that PET had looked at Ms. Kjærsgaard's personal diary and used that information for things other than her personal protection. Those leaks cost the head of PET his job last week. But as part of the digging associated with that, people started wondering exactly what the Minister had and had not done in connection with these famous visits. Nothing, said the Minister categorically and on many occasions.
Until last night, when prior to a meeting with the committee this morning, he gave written answers to the many questions they had asked him. And admitted that he had lied to the committee, the one thing which a Minister must never do. And so he had to go.
What is still unclear is why he went to such lengths to concoct something which was a complete lie. Why not simply say to the committee "I can't say why, but my intelligence sources have identified a threat, and my advice is that you visit Christiania at a later time when things are calmer"? What's so difficult about that? Doubtless at the time, there was some reason why this was not so easy, and the cock-and-bull story seemed like a good idea, whose truth would never be known. But as I say, Ministers have to be careful, things which seem nothing can become something.
Walter Blotscher
Morten Bødskov resigned as Justice Minister this afternoon. His fate shows clearly just how careful politicians have to be.
Back in the spring of 2012 Parliament's Justice Committee decided to visit Christiania, the slightly lawless area of Copenhagen where hippies live and marijuana is smoked. The committee included Pia Kjærsgaard, the then leader of the far-right Danish People's Party. For some years, Ms. Kjærsgaard has had round-the-clock protection from PET, Denmark's intelligence service, because of threats to her person, so the visit was always going to be controversial. However, it could not take place at the time, since Copenhagen's police chief could not rearrange his diary in order to accompany them. However, it took place later that summer and without any problems.
So what's the story? On the face of it, nothing. The visit could not take place in February, it took place later. The problem is that the reason given, namely the police chief's diary, was not true; the Minister and the then head of the committee had made that up. The real reason was a threat evaluation by PET that the committee would be in danger.
This took a long time to emerge. The reason it did emerge was because of whistleblowers in PET, who were unhappy with the management style of the head of the organisation. They leaked that PET had looked at Ms. Kjærsgaard's personal diary and used that information for things other than her personal protection. Those leaks cost the head of PET his job last week. But as part of the digging associated with that, people started wondering exactly what the Minister had and had not done in connection with these famous visits. Nothing, said the Minister categorically and on many occasions.
Until last night, when prior to a meeting with the committee this morning, he gave written answers to the many questions they had asked him. And admitted that he had lied to the committee, the one thing which a Minister must never do. And so he had to go.
What is still unclear is why he went to such lengths to concoct something which was a complete lie. Why not simply say to the committee "I can't say why, but my intelligence sources have identified a threat, and my advice is that you visit Christiania at a later time when things are calmer"? What's so difficult about that? Doubtless at the time, there was some reason why this was not so easy, and the cock-and-bull story seemed like a good idea, whose truth would never be known. But as I say, Ministers have to be careful, things which seem nothing can become something.
Walter Blotscher
Monday 9 December 2013
CHAINSAWS
When my father-in-law died some 10 years ago, I inherited his brand-new Husqvarna chainsaw, complete with protective salopettes, boots, helmet and tools. Since then. it has seen many good days of service, felling trees, chopping up logs, preparing wood for the stove, and so on.
What is interesting about it is that it is a classic case of learning by doing. I knew absolutely nothing about chainsaws when I got it. But after many hours of fiddling about, I now know quite a lot about what remains a very dangerous piece of machinery. I can clean it, oil it, change the chain, work out why it won't start and so on. I still can't start it by holding it in my hand, but that's because my left hand is weak after my cycling accident.
Today I learned a new thing about it. I thought that the round metal thing that slots inside the cover was to help the flywheel turn more easily, and that it had broken. However it turns out that I had inadvertently put the brake on while I was putting a new chain on it, and this had caused the the metal thing to jam. After a trip to my chain supplier and two minutes education, the problem was sorted and I could go to work again. the first victim of my new chain was an irritating sycamore tree, which had taken a lot of light from my kitchen garden. That has now gone and been chopped up.
Walter Blotscher
When my father-in-law died some 10 years ago, I inherited his brand-new Husqvarna chainsaw, complete with protective salopettes, boots, helmet and tools. Since then. it has seen many good days of service, felling trees, chopping up logs, preparing wood for the stove, and so on.
What is interesting about it is that it is a classic case of learning by doing. I knew absolutely nothing about chainsaws when I got it. But after many hours of fiddling about, I now know quite a lot about what remains a very dangerous piece of machinery. I can clean it, oil it, change the chain, work out why it won't start and so on. I still can't start it by holding it in my hand, but that's because my left hand is weak after my cycling accident.
Today I learned a new thing about it. I thought that the round metal thing that slots inside the cover was to help the flywheel turn more easily, and that it had broken. However it turns out that I had inadvertently put the brake on while I was putting a new chain on it, and this had caused the the metal thing to jam. After a trip to my chain supplier and two minutes education, the problem was sorted and I could go to work again. the first victim of my new chain was an irritating sycamore tree, which had taken a lot of light from my kitchen garden. That has now gone and been chopped up.
Walter Blotscher
Sunday 8 December 2013
CROSS-COUNTRY SKIING (2)
Why are the Norwegians so good at cross-country skiing, I asked back in March 2011? I could have asked the same question again today. Idly watching the TV during a coffee break from chopping up wood, I watched the end of a team cross-country World Cup race held in Norway. Other countries had one 4-man team, but Norway showed up with three, who were all very good. So good, in fact, that they nearly had a clean sweep. Instead they came second, third and fourth, only losing out to the Russians. But still miles ahead of anyone else.
Walter Blotscher
Why are the Norwegians so good at cross-country skiing, I asked back in March 2011? I could have asked the same question again today. Idly watching the TV during a coffee break from chopping up wood, I watched the end of a team cross-country World Cup race held in Norway. Other countries had one 4-man team, but Norway showed up with three, who were all very good. So good, in fact, that they nearly had a clean sweep. Instead they came second, third and fourth, only losing out to the Russians. But still miles ahead of anyone else.
Walter Blotscher
Saturday 7 December 2013
EDUCATED FOREIGNERS
All European countries face ageing populations and increasing welfare burdens. One solution is to bring in foreigners to do the work and pay the necessary taxes. But not just any old foreigners, because that tends to get people hot under the collar. No, clever foreigners, who will earn a lot, pay a lot of taxes and then (crucially) go home to retire.
Danish politicians talk about "uddannede udlændinger" (educated foreigners) ad nauseam. They think that there are vast queues of them beating down the door trying to get in. As an educated foreigner who has lived here for thirteen years, I think this is rubbish, for reasons I have said before. What is new is that foreigners outside Denmark tend to agree.
The OECD has just done a survey of 30 rich countries, looking at their ability both to attract educated foreigners and to keep them (not the same thing; Britain comes second in the first category, but only seventh in the second). Unfortunately for Danish politicians, Denmark comes 19th out of 30 in both categories, behind not only Norway, Luxembourg and the United States, but Chile, Korea and Israel. Basically, Denmark sucks at this.
Top of both lists, somewhat surprisingly, is not America or Australia or Holland, but Switzerland. It may have a reputation for being a bit boring, but it obviously knows what people want and goes out of its way to ensure they get it.
Walter Blotscher
All European countries face ageing populations and increasing welfare burdens. One solution is to bring in foreigners to do the work and pay the necessary taxes. But not just any old foreigners, because that tends to get people hot under the collar. No, clever foreigners, who will earn a lot, pay a lot of taxes and then (crucially) go home to retire.
Danish politicians talk about "uddannede udlændinger" (educated foreigners) ad nauseam. They think that there are vast queues of them beating down the door trying to get in. As an educated foreigner who has lived here for thirteen years, I think this is rubbish, for reasons I have said before. What is new is that foreigners outside Denmark tend to agree.
The OECD has just done a survey of 30 rich countries, looking at their ability both to attract educated foreigners and to keep them (not the same thing; Britain comes second in the first category, but only seventh in the second). Unfortunately for Danish politicians, Denmark comes 19th out of 30 in both categories, behind not only Norway, Luxembourg and the United States, but Chile, Korea and Israel. Basically, Denmark sucks at this.
Top of both lists, somewhat surprisingly, is not America or Australia or Holland, but Switzerland. It may have a reputation for being a bit boring, but it obviously knows what people want and goes out of its way to ensure they get it.
Walter Blotscher
Friday 6 December 2013
WAR AND MURDER
It may seem odd to think about murder when you are talking about war. After all, the whole point of war is to kill people, and to kill them with intent, isn't it? Yet since time immemorial, people have been wrestling with this issue. In mediæval times jurists tried to square violent behaviour with the very clear biblical prohibition "thou shalt not kill"; the result was the concept of the "just war", which handily covered anybody who wasn't Christian. In more modern times, the bible has been replaced by conventions, regulating behaviour. It is OK to kill people, but not in every circumstance. Civilians, the wounded, and soldiers who have surrendered are covered by these rules; killing them is not an accepted part of a soldier's life, but murder.
I am sure that throughout history there have been a lot of deaths in war, which legalistically would be classed as murder. People run on adrenalin in a firefight; judging when the fighting has stopped or whether the guy who was just trying to kill you has in fact surrendered must be extremely difficult. And even if you get that call right, there must be a terrible temptation to finish the job, to make sure that your opponent not only loses today but never has the opportunity to attack you again. I have never been in that situation, but I can well imagine that it happens.
Armies have muddled through with these problems for the past 100 years or so. However, in recent times, a new element has come into the mix, namely the technological development known as the battlefield camera. Brilliant at allowing people far behind the lines to see what is going on up-front (and so bring in air support, artillery or other things), it also records incidents that in the past would not have been recorded. Soldiers have to be aware that what they can see, so can others.
I have been thinking about this because of the conviction for murder this week of a British marine sergeant, who shot a badly wounded Afghan fighter. The fight was over, the threat was over. This was an execution, as the sergeant himself recognised; turning to his colleagues, he said "I just broke the Geneva Convention". Unfortunately for him, the incident was recorded on one of those colleagues' helmet-mounted cameras, setting in train what eventually led to a prosecution. Murder in the U.K. carries an automatic life sentence; though when it comes to sentencing, he will probably end up serving a lesser term than whole life.
What is interesting is that the marine was not convicted by civilian judges with no idea of the realities he faced. This was a Court Martial board, in which seven officers and NCO's - his peers - judged his conduct and found it wanting. As the head of the marines said succinctly, murder is murder; the judgment this week shows that this is true, even in war.
Walter Blotscher
It may seem odd to think about murder when you are talking about war. After all, the whole point of war is to kill people, and to kill them with intent, isn't it? Yet since time immemorial, people have been wrestling with this issue. In mediæval times jurists tried to square violent behaviour with the very clear biblical prohibition "thou shalt not kill"; the result was the concept of the "just war", which handily covered anybody who wasn't Christian. In more modern times, the bible has been replaced by conventions, regulating behaviour. It is OK to kill people, but not in every circumstance. Civilians, the wounded, and soldiers who have surrendered are covered by these rules; killing them is not an accepted part of a soldier's life, but murder.
I am sure that throughout history there have been a lot of deaths in war, which legalistically would be classed as murder. People run on adrenalin in a firefight; judging when the fighting has stopped or whether the guy who was just trying to kill you has in fact surrendered must be extremely difficult. And even if you get that call right, there must be a terrible temptation to finish the job, to make sure that your opponent not only loses today but never has the opportunity to attack you again. I have never been in that situation, but I can well imagine that it happens.
Armies have muddled through with these problems for the past 100 years or so. However, in recent times, a new element has come into the mix, namely the technological development known as the battlefield camera. Brilliant at allowing people far behind the lines to see what is going on up-front (and so bring in air support, artillery or other things), it also records incidents that in the past would not have been recorded. Soldiers have to be aware that what they can see, so can others.
I have been thinking about this because of the conviction for murder this week of a British marine sergeant, who shot a badly wounded Afghan fighter. The fight was over, the threat was over. This was an execution, as the sergeant himself recognised; turning to his colleagues, he said "I just broke the Geneva Convention". Unfortunately for him, the incident was recorded on one of those colleagues' helmet-mounted cameras, setting in train what eventually led to a prosecution. Murder in the U.K. carries an automatic life sentence; though when it comes to sentencing, he will probably end up serving a lesser term than whole life.
What is interesting is that the marine was not convicted by civilian judges with no idea of the realities he faced. This was a Court Martial board, in which seven officers and NCO's - his peers - judged his conduct and found it wanting. As the head of the marines said succinctly, murder is murder; the judgment this week shows that this is true, even in war.
Walter Blotscher
Thursday 5 December 2013
ANOTHER BIG STORM
I have just finished clearing up after the storm that hit Denmark on 28 October. Clearing up means getting rid of all the leaves, chopping up the two trees that fell down, and similar stuff. So it is a bit annoying to find that a second one is currently raging over the country.
Although mooted to be not quite as violent as the earlier one, it will last longer, nearly a full 24 hours. All of the bridges connecting the country's islands are closed, train and ferry services have stopped, and the police have advised everyone to stay indoors. Advice which I am heeding.
Hopefully, all of the trees set to fall down came down a month ago. But it's not until tomorrow that I will find out if that is true or not.
Walter Blotscher
I have just finished clearing up after the storm that hit Denmark on 28 October. Clearing up means getting rid of all the leaves, chopping up the two trees that fell down, and similar stuff. So it is a bit annoying to find that a second one is currently raging over the country.
Although mooted to be not quite as violent as the earlier one, it will last longer, nearly a full 24 hours. All of the bridges connecting the country's islands are closed, train and ferry services have stopped, and the police have advised everyone to stay indoors. Advice which I am heeding.
Hopefully, all of the trees set to fall down came down a month ago. But it's not until tomorrow that I will find out if that is true or not.
Walter Blotscher
Wednesday 4 December 2013
DETROIT (2)
Back in August, Detroit seemed certain to go into bankruptcy. However, not everybody had an interest in seeing that happen. Foremost amongst them were former municipal employees, whose unfunded pension liabilities make up around half of the city's US$18 billion debt. They sued the state-appointed emergency manager in order to prevent his bankruptcy petition from taking place.
That attempt has failed. The judge handling the petition said that bankruptcy, and the protection which it gives the city from its creditors, was a "foregone conclusion" and the only possible way forward. The emergency manager will now put forward a plan to deal with Detroit's 100,000+ creditors. That plan will almost certainly include cuts in those otherwise sacred pension liabilities.
Detroit's bankruptcy is not only interesting in its own right, but will give some clues as to how America will deal with the colossal problem of unfunded (and unaffordable) state and municipal pension commitments, which run into the trillions of dollars. In particular, the idea that those commitments are untouchable will be tested and discarded.
Walter Blotscher
Back in August, Detroit seemed certain to go into bankruptcy. However, not everybody had an interest in seeing that happen. Foremost amongst them were former municipal employees, whose unfunded pension liabilities make up around half of the city's US$18 billion debt. They sued the state-appointed emergency manager in order to prevent his bankruptcy petition from taking place.
That attempt has failed. The judge handling the petition said that bankruptcy, and the protection which it gives the city from its creditors, was a "foregone conclusion" and the only possible way forward. The emergency manager will now put forward a plan to deal with Detroit's 100,000+ creditors. That plan will almost certainly include cuts in those otherwise sacred pension liabilities.
Detroit's bankruptcy is not only interesting in its own right, but will give some clues as to how America will deal with the colossal problem of unfunded (and unaffordable) state and municipal pension commitments, which run into the trillions of dollars. In particular, the idea that those commitments are untouchable will be tested and discarded.
Walter Blotscher
Tuesday 3 December 2013
PISA TESTS
The Programme for International Student Assessment (or PISA) is a way of comparing educational performance across countries. Marks are given in mathematics, reading and science for pupils aged 15. The programme is run by the OECD, though it also includes countries who are not OECD members.
Given the variety in participant countries' cultures and educational systems, statisticians have long criticised the tests as overly simplistic. Yet since starting in 2000, the three-yearly results have quickly become the yardstick by which countries (and, in particular, their Education Ministers) judge themselves.
Denmark has the world's most expensive state school system, so there were high expectations when the latest 2012 results were announced today. However, the country achieved only middling grades in all three subjects, well behind the front-runners from East Asia (Shanghai, Hong Kong, Singapore, Japan and South Korea) and Finland, and below most of the E.U. countries with whom Denmark likes to compare itself.
Politicians were quick to try and put a gloss on things, saying that Denmark has too many less-able children in its survey. However, that cannot hide the fact that Denmark's results have not improved since 2006, and in mathematics have got worse. It is clear that more money does not necessarily lead to better educated children. The problem is working out what does.
Walter Blotscher
The Programme for International Student Assessment (or PISA) is a way of comparing educational performance across countries. Marks are given in mathematics, reading and science for pupils aged 15. The programme is run by the OECD, though it also includes countries who are not OECD members.
Given the variety in participant countries' cultures and educational systems, statisticians have long criticised the tests as overly simplistic. Yet since starting in 2000, the three-yearly results have quickly become the yardstick by which countries (and, in particular, their Education Ministers) judge themselves.
Denmark has the world's most expensive state school system, so there were high expectations when the latest 2012 results were announced today. However, the country achieved only middling grades in all three subjects, well behind the front-runners from East Asia (Shanghai, Hong Kong, Singapore, Japan and South Korea) and Finland, and below most of the E.U. countries with whom Denmark likes to compare itself.
Politicians were quick to try and put a gloss on things, saying that Denmark has too many less-able children in its survey. However, that cannot hide the fact that Denmark's results have not improved since 2006, and in mathematics have got worse. It is clear that more money does not necessarily lead to better educated children. The problem is working out what does.
Walter Blotscher
Monday 2 December 2013
A BREAK-IN
There was a break-in at the cinema last night. They came in through the front door, using a crowbar to prise the lock, and took the flat-screen TV that sits in the window and runs trailers and adverts, plus the cash in the till (roughly £200) and all of the sweets on the rack. Not, however, the chips, popcorn or liquorice.
They were in there a long time, going through all the shelves both downstairs and upstairs, plus the area under the seating (which has nothing in it). Fortunately, they weren't interested in the computer or any of the other equipment upstairs, nor did they do any damage to the seats or anything else. They left the way they had come in, by the front door.
Given what they went for, their lack of interest in the equipment and the methodical way in which they searched the premises without vandalising anything, my guess is that it was someone with a drug problem. They need cash to buy drugs, and often need sugar to keep them going until the next fix.
However, that's merely a guess from someone with an interest in finding the culprit. The only thing that's certain is that the police are not interested in finding them. After we had reported it, they turned up three hours late and looked very bored. I don't expect to be summoned as a court witness any time soon.
Walter Blotscher
There was a break-in at the cinema last night. They came in through the front door, using a crowbar to prise the lock, and took the flat-screen TV that sits in the window and runs trailers and adverts, plus the cash in the till (roughly £200) and all of the sweets on the rack. Not, however, the chips, popcorn or liquorice.
They were in there a long time, going through all the shelves both downstairs and upstairs, plus the area under the seating (which has nothing in it). Fortunately, they weren't interested in the computer or any of the other equipment upstairs, nor did they do any damage to the seats or anything else. They left the way they had come in, by the front door.
Given what they went for, their lack of interest in the equipment and the methodical way in which they searched the premises without vandalising anything, my guess is that it was someone with a drug problem. They need cash to buy drugs, and often need sugar to keep them going until the next fix.
However, that's merely a guess from someone with an interest in finding the culprit. The only thing that's certain is that the police are not interested in finding them. After we had reported it, they turned up three hours late and looked very bored. I don't expect to be summoned as a court witness any time soon.
Walter Blotscher
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