MY WALKING TOUR (4)
I am off on my annual walking tour tomorrow, so no blogging for a while. Back in June.
Walter Blotscher
Friday 22 May 2015
Thursday 21 May 2015
U.K. IMMIGRATION (4)
The British Conservative Party has long had a target to reduce net migration (immigration less emigration) to under 100,000 people a year. Having just won an absolute majority at the recent general election, it can now put that policy into practice.
Unfortunately, there is one snag, albeit a big one. Net migration in 2014 was up a massive 50% on the previous year to 318,000, the largest figure for a decade. Emigration was pretty stable at 323,000, but immigration jumped sharply, to 641,000.
What is most worrying for Prime Minister David Cameron is the main reason behind this jump, namely the number of non-British nationals from the rest of the E.U. coming to Britain to work. It is precisely this issue that he would like to tackle in the proposed renegotiation of Britain's relationship with the E.U.; and precisely this issue which the rest of the E.U. (and particularly Member States from Eastern Europe) would like to remain unchanged.
Without any change in E.U. rules, it is hard to see what Mr. Cameron can do. He can't stop people emigrating to sunnier climes if they want; and he can't really stop British-based businesses from employing foreigners, if they want to do so. What is left is not much more than words.
Walter Blotscher
The British Conservative Party has long had a target to reduce net migration (immigration less emigration) to under 100,000 people a year. Having just won an absolute majority at the recent general election, it can now put that policy into practice.
Unfortunately, there is one snag, albeit a big one. Net migration in 2014 was up a massive 50% on the previous year to 318,000, the largest figure for a decade. Emigration was pretty stable at 323,000, but immigration jumped sharply, to 641,000.
What is most worrying for Prime Minister David Cameron is the main reason behind this jump, namely the number of non-British nationals from the rest of the E.U. coming to Britain to work. It is precisely this issue that he would like to tackle in the proposed renegotiation of Britain's relationship with the E.U.; and precisely this issue which the rest of the E.U. (and particularly Member States from Eastern Europe) would like to remain unchanged.
Without any change in E.U. rules, it is hard to see what Mr. Cameron can do. He can't stop people emigrating to sunnier climes if they want; and he can't really stop British-based businesses from employing foreigners, if they want to do so. What is left is not much more than words.
Walter Blotscher
Tuesday 19 May 2015
A SILLY LAW
The Danish Government, like many others, has long been worried about the possibility (not documented, as far as I know) of rampant knife crime. So, about 10 years ago, it introduced a law banning various types of knife from sale. In particular, flick or Stanley knives that can be hidden.
Politicians say that it was not intended that your average Swiss army, boy scout knife would be caught by the legislation. Unfortunately, a new court ruling has decided that they are. Any knife that can be opened "with one hand" is illegal.
So the angler with a small penknife used to cut his line is caught. The waiter with a corkscrew and small knife attachment is caught. The carpenter who uses a knife to cut his plasterboard is caught.
This is absurd. It is what comes from having politicians anxious to whip up a frenzy about (supposed) crime.
Walter Blotscher
The Danish Government, like many others, has long been worried about the possibility (not documented, as far as I know) of rampant knife crime. So, about 10 years ago, it introduced a law banning various types of knife from sale. In particular, flick or Stanley knives that can be hidden.
Politicians say that it was not intended that your average Swiss army, boy scout knife would be caught by the legislation. Unfortunately, a new court ruling has decided that they are. Any knife that can be opened "with one hand" is illegal.
So the angler with a small penknife used to cut his line is caught. The waiter with a corkscrew and small knife attachment is caught. The carpenter who uses a knife to cut his plasterboard is caught.
This is absurd. It is what comes from having politicians anxious to whip up a frenzy about (supposed) crime.
Walter Blotscher
Monday 18 May 2015
UKIP (2)
The anti-E.U., anti-immigrant, U.K. Independence Party harvested almost 4 million votes in the recent U.K. general election, but won only one seat. Since then, it has gone into a downward spiral.
The problem is that UKIP is essentially a 1-man show, namely the blokeish Nigel Farage. He rather foolishly said that he would resign the leadership of the party if he failed to get elected to Parliament. Mr. Farage was already a member of the European Parliament, having been elected under proportional representation rules, but Britain's first-past-the-post electoral system is less forgiving. He didn't win in Thanet South, and so offered to resign. But who should (or could) replace him? A panicky party leadership begged him to stay on, but the process revealed deep splits within the party, between those who want more of Mr. Farage (i.e. a party run from the top) and those who want less (i.e. a party that listens more to those 4 million voters).
British political parties, unlike their continental counterparts tend to be "broad churches", encompassing a wide spectrum of views. However, the quid pro quo for this is that policy differences have to be debated internally, following which a united front is placed before the electorate. Parties that are seen to have disunity are punished heavily. Unless UKIP sort themselves out in a hurry, that will also be their fate.
Walter Blotscher
The anti-E.U., anti-immigrant, U.K. Independence Party harvested almost 4 million votes in the recent U.K. general election, but won only one seat. Since then, it has gone into a downward spiral.
The problem is that UKIP is essentially a 1-man show, namely the blokeish Nigel Farage. He rather foolishly said that he would resign the leadership of the party if he failed to get elected to Parliament. Mr. Farage was already a member of the European Parliament, having been elected under proportional representation rules, but Britain's first-past-the-post electoral system is less forgiving. He didn't win in Thanet South, and so offered to resign. But who should (or could) replace him? A panicky party leadership begged him to stay on, but the process revealed deep splits within the party, between those who want more of Mr. Farage (i.e. a party run from the top) and those who want less (i.e. a party that listens more to those 4 million voters).
British political parties, unlike their continental counterparts tend to be "broad churches", encompassing a wide spectrum of views. However, the quid pro quo for this is that policy differences have to be debated internally, following which a united front is placed before the electorate. Parties that are seen to have disunity are punished heavily. Unless UKIP sort themselves out in a hurry, that will also be their fate.
Walter Blotscher
Sunday 17 May 2015
ICE HOCKEY (9)
Canada duly won the world championships in Prague this evening, thrashing Russia 6-1 in the final. The Canadians were all-conquering, winning all of their 7 round robin matches, plus the three in the knockout phase, and scoring a lot of goals in the process.
Canada doesn't always do well in the world championships, since they clash with the NHL Stanley Cup playoffs, which take place at the same time. On the two previous occasions when Canada played Russia in the final, in 2008 and 2009, the Russians won. And for the past five years, they have been knocked out in the quarter finals. This is in contrast to the Olympic Games, where the NHL graciously takes a break, allowing the Canadians to send their best team (they have won the last two).
However, this time a number of their top players were allowed to come, including Sidney ("Sid the Kid") Crosby, widely regarded as the world's best. In winning, Crosby became the 26th member of the Triple Gold Club, a select band of ice hockey players who have won all three of the Stanley Cup, World Championships and Olympic Games, and the first to have done so as captain. Since he is still only 27, it is quite possible that he will win a few more.
What is most dispiriting for the Russians (and other nations) is that they showed up with arguably their strongest possible line-up. They were humiliated by the Canadians' number one team at the Sochi Olympics last year, now they have been humiliated by their number two. They need a rethink.
Walter Blotscher
Canada duly won the world championships in Prague this evening, thrashing Russia 6-1 in the final. The Canadians were all-conquering, winning all of their 7 round robin matches, plus the three in the knockout phase, and scoring a lot of goals in the process.
Canada doesn't always do well in the world championships, since they clash with the NHL Stanley Cup playoffs, which take place at the same time. On the two previous occasions when Canada played Russia in the final, in 2008 and 2009, the Russians won. And for the past five years, they have been knocked out in the quarter finals. This is in contrast to the Olympic Games, where the NHL graciously takes a break, allowing the Canadians to send their best team (they have won the last two).
However, this time a number of their top players were allowed to come, including Sidney ("Sid the Kid") Crosby, widely regarded as the world's best. In winning, Crosby became the 26th member of the Triple Gold Club, a select band of ice hockey players who have won all three of the Stanley Cup, World Championships and Olympic Games, and the first to have done so as captain. Since he is still only 27, it is quite possible that he will win a few more.
What is most dispiriting for the Russians (and other nations) is that they showed up with arguably their strongest possible line-up. They were humiliated by the Canadians' number one team at the Sochi Olympics last year, now they have been humiliated by their number two. They need a rethink.
Walter Blotscher
Saturday 16 May 2015
BURUNDI
Burundi looks like becoming yet another African country to go pear-shaped. The starting point, as so often in cases like this, is a constitution that limits the President to two 5-year terms. The problem is that the current President's first term started when he was elected by Parliament and not by a popular vote. The question then becomes "does he get that term, plus possibly two more, or is that first term one of the two?". Naturally the President (and his cronies) wants to stay on for as long as possible.
That question was put to the Constitutional Court, who ruled in favour of the first interpretation. However, it is a sign of trouble when one of the judges, who was against that ruling, fled the country, citing political pressure and fearing for his life. More importantly, a large section of the population and the army thought that the second interpretation was the correct one. Dissident officers staged a coup while the President was away in Tanzania. The coup failed, and the officers have been jailed. Some reports suggest they have been tortured.
This has all the beginnings of a renewed civil war. Does the rest of the world care? They didn't in next door Rwanda, and the result was a genocide. Could it happen again? I am not saying it will, but it is certainly possible.
Walter Blotscher
Burundi looks like becoming yet another African country to go pear-shaped. The starting point, as so often in cases like this, is a constitution that limits the President to two 5-year terms. The problem is that the current President's first term started when he was elected by Parliament and not by a popular vote. The question then becomes "does he get that term, plus possibly two more, or is that first term one of the two?". Naturally the President (and his cronies) wants to stay on for as long as possible.
That question was put to the Constitutional Court, who ruled in favour of the first interpretation. However, it is a sign of trouble when one of the judges, who was against that ruling, fled the country, citing political pressure and fearing for his life. More importantly, a large section of the population and the army thought that the second interpretation was the correct one. Dissident officers staged a coup while the President was away in Tanzania. The coup failed, and the officers have been jailed. Some reports suggest they have been tortured.
This has all the beginnings of a renewed civil war. Does the rest of the world care? They didn't in next door Rwanda, and the result was a genocide. Could it happen again? I am not saying it will, but it is certainly possible.
Walter Blotscher
Friday 15 May 2015
MOVING HOUSE
My mother-in-law moved into her new house today. Since the whole family were gathered for Ascension Day yesterday, we all chipped in with packing, moving and cleaning. My son and I did most of the heavy lifting.
Her new house is much smaller than the old one, so it was an opportunity to get rid of a lot of stuff. I ended up with her lawnmower tractor and a hedge trimmer, which are very good things to have when you live in the country. Perhaps I should get her to move more often?
Walter Blotscher
My mother-in-law moved into her new house today. Since the whole family were gathered for Ascension Day yesterday, we all chipped in with packing, moving and cleaning. My son and I did most of the heavy lifting.
Her new house is much smaller than the old one, so it was an opportunity to get rid of a lot of stuff. I ended up with her lawnmower tractor and a hedge trimmer, which are very good things to have when you live in the country. Perhaps I should get her to move more often?
Walter Blotscher
Thursday 14 May 2015
ASCENSION DAY
Today is Ascension Day, which (in contrast to some other countries) is a public holiday in Denmark. Since Ascension Day, 40 days after Easter Sunday, is always on a Thursday, you would think that tomorrow is also a holiday. But it isn't.
Today's traditional activity is the Danish cup final in football. FC København won 3-2, albeit in extra time.
Today's traditional activity for me is a family gathering of my and all of my wife's immediate family. Which I have just duly held.
Walter Blotscher
Today is Ascension Day, which (in contrast to some other countries) is a public holiday in Denmark. Since Ascension Day, 40 days after Easter Sunday, is always on a Thursday, you would think that tomorrow is also a holiday. But it isn't.
Today's traditional activity is the Danish cup final in football. FC København won 3-2, albeit in extra time.
Today's traditional activity for me is a family gathering of my and all of my wife's immediate family. Which I have just duly held.
Walter Blotscher
Wednesday 13 May 2015
FOLKEMØDET
In 2011 a Danish former Minister called Bertel Haarder decided to borrow a Swedish idea, and organise a folkemøde (literally "meeting of the people") on Bornholm, the Danish island in the Baltic off the southern coast of Sweden. It was a great success, and has since become an annual event. This year's is scheduled to take place from 11-14 June.
Politicians of all parties show up and engage in debates and other sorts of "town hall" activities. People join in, and can get pretty close to them. Last year around 90,000 people turned up (a lot, given that Bornholm's population is under 50,000), or roughly 22,000 a day. They were spread over some 2,000 events.
Unfortunately, this year's event looks like being a flop. The reason is that someone had the bright (i.e. stupid) idea of inviting Geert Wilders, the Dutch politician who is virulently anti-immigrant and anti-Islam, in order to talk about freedom of expression. Mr. Wilders has accepted; which means in turn that post-Copenhagen, Paris and Texas, the police presence on the island will have to be massively increased. That in turn makes it more likely that people will choose not to participate and/or that politicians will stay away. Indeed, some have already said that they will not be attending.
This episode shows just how easy it is to mess something good up.
Walter Blotscher
In 2011 a Danish former Minister called Bertel Haarder decided to borrow a Swedish idea, and organise a folkemøde (literally "meeting of the people") on Bornholm, the Danish island in the Baltic off the southern coast of Sweden. It was a great success, and has since become an annual event. This year's is scheduled to take place from 11-14 June.
Politicians of all parties show up and engage in debates and other sorts of "town hall" activities. People join in, and can get pretty close to them. Last year around 90,000 people turned up (a lot, given that Bornholm's population is under 50,000), or roughly 22,000 a day. They were spread over some 2,000 events.
Unfortunately, this year's event looks like being a flop. The reason is that someone had the bright (i.e. stupid) idea of inviting Geert Wilders, the Dutch politician who is virulently anti-immigrant and anti-Islam, in order to talk about freedom of expression. Mr. Wilders has accepted; which means in turn that post-Copenhagen, Paris and Texas, the police presence on the island will have to be massively increased. That in turn makes it more likely that people will choose not to participate and/or that politicians will stay away. Indeed, some have already said that they will not be attending.
This episode shows just how easy it is to mess something good up.
Walter Blotscher
Tuesday 12 May 2015
KVIKLÅN
Kviklån (literally "quick loans") are those with a very short maturity, typically a month or less. Typically they appeal to people with few resources, who need cash in a hurry. The problem with them is that the interest rate can be incredibly high, up to thousands of percent on an annual basis. Under E.U. law, this annual rate (ÅOP in Danish) has to be made clear to the customer. Often, however, the figure is tucked away in the small print, or the customer doesn't understand what ÅOP means. The headline rate seems reasonable enough, and that is all that matters.
The market for kviklån (literally "quick loans") has exploded in recent years. Between 2010, when they first started to appear in Denmark, and 2014 the number of loans rose 7-fold and the total amount lent 10-fold. That has given rise to concern within the authorities, since around half of all loans are not repaid on time, and a quarter repaid more than a month late. The worry is that unwary customers end up in a downward spiral of fees, extra interest and possible repossession of assets.
In response to this the Government is proposing that there should be a minimum period during which the customer considers whether to accept the loan or not (in contrast to the current situation, where borrowers are promised that the money is in their account "the day after" their acceptance). This has cross-party support, and is likely to become law. Whether it prevents people from continuing to take out such loans if of course another matter entirely.
Walter Blotscher
Kviklån (literally "quick loans") are those with a very short maturity, typically a month or less. Typically they appeal to people with few resources, who need cash in a hurry. The problem with them is that the interest rate can be incredibly high, up to thousands of percent on an annual basis. Under E.U. law, this annual rate (ÅOP in Danish) has to be made clear to the customer. Often, however, the figure is tucked away in the small print, or the customer doesn't understand what ÅOP means. The headline rate seems reasonable enough, and that is all that matters.
The market for kviklån (literally "quick loans") has exploded in recent years. Between 2010, when they first started to appear in Denmark, and 2014 the number of loans rose 7-fold and the total amount lent 10-fold. That has given rise to concern within the authorities, since around half of all loans are not repaid on time, and a quarter repaid more than a month late. The worry is that unwary customers end up in a downward spiral of fees, extra interest and possible repossession of assets.
In response to this the Government is proposing that there should be a minimum period during which the customer considers whether to accept the loan or not (in contrast to the current situation, where borrowers are promised that the money is in their account "the day after" their acceptance). This has cross-party support, and is likely to become law. Whether it prevents people from continuing to take out such loans if of course another matter entirely.
Walter Blotscher
Sunday 10 May 2015
HIGH PRICES
Denmark has for some years had the highest tax take in the world. One consequence of that is high prices, not least because VAT is 25% and applied to pretty much everything, including basic foodstuffs.
New research by the E.U. shows just how high those prices are. If the 28-member E.U. index average is 100, then Denmark's consumer prices are a whopping 139.4 and food prices 136.4. Sweden, Finland and Luxemburg all are all over 120, but the numbers are a lot higher than competitors such as Germany (102.3 and 108.6) and the U.K. (114.6 and 99.3, the latter much lower since food is zero rated for VAT). Let alone Romania (54.0 and 68.7) or Bulgaria (49.0 and 69.8).
Over time, prices and incomes within the E.U. should harmonise, in the same way as they do nationally. However, what these figures show is that that process is a slow one, not least because the E.U. lacks a redistributive tax and spending authority such as national governments have.
High prices are definitely a pain. But you should not feel too sorry for the Danes. Property is still cheap compared with (say) the U.K., many public services are free, and interest rates are ridiculously low. I certainly don't feel poor.
Walter Blotscher
Denmark has for some years had the highest tax take in the world. One consequence of that is high prices, not least because VAT is 25% and applied to pretty much everything, including basic foodstuffs.
New research by the E.U. shows just how high those prices are. If the 28-member E.U. index average is 100, then Denmark's consumer prices are a whopping 139.4 and food prices 136.4. Sweden, Finland and Luxemburg all are all over 120, but the numbers are a lot higher than competitors such as Germany (102.3 and 108.6) and the U.K. (114.6 and 99.3, the latter much lower since food is zero rated for VAT). Let alone Romania (54.0 and 68.7) or Bulgaria (49.0 and 69.8).
Over time, prices and incomes within the E.U. should harmonise, in the same way as they do nationally. However, what these figures show is that that process is a slow one, not least because the E.U. lacks a redistributive tax and spending authority such as national governments have.
High prices are definitely a pain. But you should not feel too sorry for the Danes. Property is still cheap compared with (say) the U.K., many public services are free, and interest rates are ridiculously low. I certainly don't feel poor.
Walter Blotscher
Saturday 9 May 2015
THE 2015 U.K. ELECTION (2)
The polls said that it would be the closest election ever, but it wasn't. The Conservatives ended up with 331 seats, giving them a majority of 12 (with 650 seats in the House of Commons, the theoretical total needed is 326; however, the Irish party Sinn Fein consistently refuse to take any seats that they win, so the practical total is lower). In doing so, they increased their total by 24, an unusual event for a governing party.
One prediction that did come true was the wipe-out of the Liberal Democrats, who were reduced from 57 seats to just 8. Their share of the popular vote fell from just over 23% to just under 8%, a truly terrible result. Indeed, the LibDems were the only major party to have a reduced share of the popular vote. Their leader Nick Clegg survived in Sheffield, but he resigned the leadership of the party anyway.
UKIP got almost 4 million votes, but just one seat. While the Scottish Nationalists got just under 1.5 million votes, but almost swept the board in Scotland, winning 56 of the 59 seats. Those two facts, combined with the fact that the Conservatives won a majority with only 36.9% of the popular vote, are likely to resurrect the issue of changing the voting system.
Labour, who had hopes of winning the Premiership, had a disastrous election. They actually won 15 seats in England from the LibDems, but that was more than outweighed by the fact of being obliterated in Scotland. For much of the past two decades, the Labour Party has been dominated by Scots, and the Scottish nationalist rebellion has left it floundering. Nor surprisingly, its inept leader Ed Milliband also resigned the leadership of his party.
That leaves David Cameron and his Conservative Party in a strong position. They can govern alone, without the irritating LibDems, they have an experienced ministerial team, and the opposition is in complete disarray. And yet, and yet. The two big issues of the coming Parliament are going to be first, the relationship between Scotland and the rest of the United Kingdom; with the SNP dominating politics beyond the border, there could well be pressure for a second referendum on independence. Secondly, the relationship between the U.K. and Europe, and the in/out referendum that Mr. Cameron rashly promised if he won a majority. Mr. Cameron is pro the union and pro the E.U. Keeping both would have been easier if he had not won a majority and had had to work with other parties. The irony of his famous victory is that it is now more likely that he goes down in history as the man that saw the break-up of the United Kingdom and/or the British exit from the E.U.
Walter Blotscher
The polls said that it would be the closest election ever, but it wasn't. The Conservatives ended up with 331 seats, giving them a majority of 12 (with 650 seats in the House of Commons, the theoretical total needed is 326; however, the Irish party Sinn Fein consistently refuse to take any seats that they win, so the practical total is lower). In doing so, they increased their total by 24, an unusual event for a governing party.
One prediction that did come true was the wipe-out of the Liberal Democrats, who were reduced from 57 seats to just 8. Their share of the popular vote fell from just over 23% to just under 8%, a truly terrible result. Indeed, the LibDems were the only major party to have a reduced share of the popular vote. Their leader Nick Clegg survived in Sheffield, but he resigned the leadership of the party anyway.
UKIP got almost 4 million votes, but just one seat. While the Scottish Nationalists got just under 1.5 million votes, but almost swept the board in Scotland, winning 56 of the 59 seats. Those two facts, combined with the fact that the Conservatives won a majority with only 36.9% of the popular vote, are likely to resurrect the issue of changing the voting system.
Labour, who had hopes of winning the Premiership, had a disastrous election. They actually won 15 seats in England from the LibDems, but that was more than outweighed by the fact of being obliterated in Scotland. For much of the past two decades, the Labour Party has been dominated by Scots, and the Scottish nationalist rebellion has left it floundering. Nor surprisingly, its inept leader Ed Milliband also resigned the leadership of his party.
That leaves David Cameron and his Conservative Party in a strong position. They can govern alone, without the irritating LibDems, they have an experienced ministerial team, and the opposition is in complete disarray. And yet, and yet. The two big issues of the coming Parliament are going to be first, the relationship between Scotland and the rest of the United Kingdom; with the SNP dominating politics beyond the border, there could well be pressure for a second referendum on independence. Secondly, the relationship between the U.K. and Europe, and the in/out referendum that Mr. Cameron rashly promised if he won a majority. Mr. Cameron is pro the union and pro the E.U. Keeping both would have been easier if he had not won a majority and had had to work with other parties. The irony of his famous victory is that it is now more likely that he goes down in history as the man that saw the break-up of the United Kingdom and/or the British exit from the E.U.
Walter Blotscher
Friday 8 May 2015
A LOT OF WOOD
I returned home this afternoon to find the back lawn covered in wood. Literally. The reason is that we have arranged to have two big ash trees felled. They weren't particularly attractive and they took a lot of early evening sunlight from the front of the house. So they had to go.
The problem is that in the interests of cost savings, the trees were simply felled. It is now up to me to chop them up and stack the resulting logs for the wood-burning stove. I already know that this is going to take me a while.
Walter Blotscher
I returned home this afternoon to find the back lawn covered in wood. Literally. The reason is that we have arranged to have two big ash trees felled. They weren't particularly attractive and they took a lot of early evening sunlight from the front of the house. So they had to go.
The problem is that in the interests of cost savings, the trees were simply felled. It is now up to me to chop them up and stack the resulting logs for the wood-burning stove. I already know that this is going to take me a while.
Walter Blotscher
Thursday 7 May 2015
THE 2015 U.K. ELECTION
The polls say that this election will be the closest ever. Time will tell if that turns out to be true or not, but one thing looks to be certain; the Liberal Democrats, the junior partner in the existing coalition, are going to get stuffed.
The U.K.'s First Past The Post electoral system, which has been in existence for hundreds of years, is viewed with incredulity in places like Denmark. Its advantages are that it is simple to understand, and tends to produce alternating strong governments of left and right. The disadvantages are that a party can end up with a Parliamentary majority without getting anywhere near 50% of the popular vote, and that third parties can get lots of votes without getting many (or, indeed, any) seats. Since Labour replaced them as the party of the left in the interwar years, the party most disadvantaged by the system has been the Liberals, now metamorphosed into the Liberal Democrats. Accordingly their main policy of the past 50 years has been a call to change the voting system to a form of proportional representation, the system used most widely in the rest of Europe (and in Britain for both local and European elections). Such a system would allow the LibDems' undoubted support to transform itself into seats, and so influence.
The big problem was getting a result under a disadvantageous system that gave the LibDems enough influence to pressure one or other of the two main parties into accepting a change in that same system. For election after election this did not happen. Then in 2010 the unexpected happened; neither the Conservatives nor Labour got a majority and the LibDems got 57 seats, enough to make them kingmakers. Form a coalition with us, and you will be in government; but the price is a referendum to change the electoral system away from FPTP.
Future historians will in my view look back at the events of 2010 and shake their heads in wonder. Because although the LibDems did form a coalition government (with the Conservatives) and did get their referendum as the price of their support, the proposed change was not to proportional representation, but to the Alternative Vote system, a tweaked form of FPTP which they had previously ruled out as insufficient. Why they abandoned their principal demand of the previous half century is not clear; perhaps the immediate lure of government went to their heads. However, the referendum result was predictable. Faced with a choice between a simple system which they understood, and a much more complicated version of it, which didn't really change very much, the conservative British electorate stayed with what they knew. The LibDems had blown it.
Since then, their support has evaporated, and everything points to a wipe-out of their Parliamentary representation. Against that background, and perhaps ironically, reform of the electoral system could well resurface in the future, at exactly the point in time when the LibDems become irrelevant. That's because in this election, the Scottish Nationalists look set to get a lot of seats in Scotland despite not having a big share of the popular vote; while in England, the anti-Europe, anti-immigrant UKIP will get lots of votes without getting many seats. In both cases, the average voter will think that wrong.
Walter Blotscher
The polls say that this election will be the closest ever. Time will tell if that turns out to be true or not, but one thing looks to be certain; the Liberal Democrats, the junior partner in the existing coalition, are going to get stuffed.
The U.K.'s First Past The Post electoral system, which has been in existence for hundreds of years, is viewed with incredulity in places like Denmark. Its advantages are that it is simple to understand, and tends to produce alternating strong governments of left and right. The disadvantages are that a party can end up with a Parliamentary majority without getting anywhere near 50% of the popular vote, and that third parties can get lots of votes without getting many (or, indeed, any) seats. Since Labour replaced them as the party of the left in the interwar years, the party most disadvantaged by the system has been the Liberals, now metamorphosed into the Liberal Democrats. Accordingly their main policy of the past 50 years has been a call to change the voting system to a form of proportional representation, the system used most widely in the rest of Europe (and in Britain for both local and European elections). Such a system would allow the LibDems' undoubted support to transform itself into seats, and so influence.
The big problem was getting a result under a disadvantageous system that gave the LibDems enough influence to pressure one or other of the two main parties into accepting a change in that same system. For election after election this did not happen. Then in 2010 the unexpected happened; neither the Conservatives nor Labour got a majority and the LibDems got 57 seats, enough to make them kingmakers. Form a coalition with us, and you will be in government; but the price is a referendum to change the electoral system away from FPTP.
Future historians will in my view look back at the events of 2010 and shake their heads in wonder. Because although the LibDems did form a coalition government (with the Conservatives) and did get their referendum as the price of their support, the proposed change was not to proportional representation, but to the Alternative Vote system, a tweaked form of FPTP which they had previously ruled out as insufficient. Why they abandoned their principal demand of the previous half century is not clear; perhaps the immediate lure of government went to their heads. However, the referendum result was predictable. Faced with a choice between a simple system which they understood, and a much more complicated version of it, which didn't really change very much, the conservative British electorate stayed with what they knew. The LibDems had blown it.
Since then, their support has evaporated, and everything points to a wipe-out of their Parliamentary representation. Against that background, and perhaps ironically, reform of the electoral system could well resurface in the future, at exactly the point in time when the LibDems become irrelevant. That's because in this election, the Scottish Nationalists look set to get a lot of seats in Scotland despite not having a big share of the popular vote; while in England, the anti-Europe, anti-immigrant UKIP will get lots of votes without getting many seats. In both cases, the average voter will think that wrong.
Walter Blotscher
Wednesday 6 May 2015
TERROR IN COPENHAGEN (2)
The 143-page joint police/intelligence report into what happened on 14 February was published today. And as I predicted earlier, the politicians got into action immediately. First, the head of intelligence resigned (i.e. was sacked), despite not having been in the job for very long. However, if the Government thought that his head would satisfy the opposition mob, they were mistaken. The airwaves have been full of politicians saying what the Government did wrong, and what they could have done better, in order to keep Danes safe.
It's all rather depressing.
Walter Blotscher
The 143-page joint police/intelligence report into what happened on 14 February was published today. And as I predicted earlier, the politicians got into action immediately. First, the head of intelligence resigned (i.e. was sacked), despite not having been in the job for very long. However, if the Government thought that his head would satisfy the opposition mob, they were mistaken. The airwaves have been full of politicians saying what the Government did wrong, and what they could have done better, in order to keep Danes safe.
It's all rather depressing.
Walter Blotscher
Tuesday 5 May 2015
Monday 4 May 2015
4 MAY
Today marks the 70th anniversary of the liberation of Denmark from the Germans at the end of the Second World War. Although the country did not suffer anywhere near as much as others did (around 8,000 died, which is a small number in the scheme of things), nevertheless the 5-year occupation had a profound effect on Denmark's national pysche.
Danes mark the event by putting candles in the windows of their homes. So if you are flying over the country tonight and wondering why there is so much extra light, you'll know why.
Walter Blotscher
Today marks the 70th anniversary of the liberation of Denmark from the Germans at the end of the Second World War. Although the country did not suffer anywhere near as much as others did (around 8,000 died, which is a small number in the scheme of things), nevertheless the 5-year occupation had a profound effect on Denmark's national pysche.
Danes mark the event by putting candles in the windows of their homes. So if you are flying over the country tonight and wondering why there is so much extra light, you'll know why.
Walter Blotscher
Sunday 3 May 2015
BABY POWER
It says something about the world when a new-born baby, barely conscious of anything, can take both the headlines and the front pages of all of the British newspapers. But that is what the Prince and Princess of Wales' new daughter has just done.
The new girl is fourth in line to the throne after her paternal grandfather Prince Charles, her dad Prince William and her elder brother Prince George. Because of the last, she is unlikely ever to inherit it, so it is less important that she gets a traditional royal name. Charlotte and Alice are apparently the bookmakers' favourites; however, for what it's worth, and despite its echoes of the nineteenth century, I am going for Victoria.
Walter Blotscher
PS Well, I got that one wrong, didn't I? Charlotte Elizabeth Diana in the end.
It says something about the world when a new-born baby, barely conscious of anything, can take both the headlines and the front pages of all of the British newspapers. But that is what the Prince and Princess of Wales' new daughter has just done.
The new girl is fourth in line to the throne after her paternal grandfather Prince Charles, her dad Prince William and her elder brother Prince George. Because of the last, she is unlikely ever to inherit it, so it is less important that she gets a traditional royal name. Charlotte and Alice are apparently the bookmakers' favourites; however, for what it's worth, and despite its echoes of the nineteenth century, I am going for Victoria.
Walter Blotscher
PS Well, I got that one wrong, didn't I? Charlotte Elizabeth Diana in the end.
Saturday 2 May 2015
ELECTION FEVER
There is a general election in the U.K. next week; more on that later. But there will also be a general election in Denmark soon. It has to be held before the beginning of September, and the big question for Prime Minister Helle Thorning-Schmidt is whether to call it before or after the long Danish summer holiday in July/August. The argument for an earlier date is that the Social Democrats have in effect been campaigning since 1 January, and are starting to run out of money. The argument for waiting is that the economy is beginning to turn up, particularly on the employment front, so a September election would follow a summer of increasingly good news.
Only one person really knows when the election will be held, and she is not telling. However, for what it's worth, my guess is that it will be in June.
Walter Blotscher
There is a general election in the U.K. next week; more on that later. But there will also be a general election in Denmark soon. It has to be held before the beginning of September, and the big question for Prime Minister Helle Thorning-Schmidt is whether to call it before or after the long Danish summer holiday in July/August. The argument for an earlier date is that the Social Democrats have in effect been campaigning since 1 January, and are starting to run out of money. The argument for waiting is that the economy is beginning to turn up, particularly on the employment front, so a September election would follow a summer of increasingly good news.
Only one person really knows when the election will be held, and she is not telling. However, for what it's worth, my guess is that it will be in June.
Walter Blotscher
Friday 1 May 2015
ICE HOCKEY (8)
The world championships of my favourite sport started today, this time in Prague and Ostrava in the Czech Republic. And they got off to a humdinger of a start with a 5-5 draw in the pool match between the hosts and Sweden (Sweden won the subsequent penalty shoot-out). Sweden were often outplayed, but somehow ended up 4-2 ahead at the beginning of the third period. Then the Czechs scored three goals, the last with two minutes to go, and the crowd went nuts. But Sweden came back and equalised with a minute left on the clock.
The game was played at 100mph, and was end to end stuff. A great way to spend a Friday early evening.
Walter Blotscher
The world championships of my favourite sport started today, this time in Prague and Ostrava in the Czech Republic. And they got off to a humdinger of a start with a 5-5 draw in the pool match between the hosts and Sweden (Sweden won the subsequent penalty shoot-out). Sweden were often outplayed, but somehow ended up 4-2 ahead at the beginning of the third period. Then the Czechs scored three goals, the last with two minutes to go, and the crowd went nuts. But Sweden came back and equalised with a minute left on the clock.
The game was played at 100mph, and was end to end stuff. A great way to spend a Friday early evening.
Walter Blotscher
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