HUGO CHAVEZ

Despite four operations and repeated assurances that he was cured, Hugo Chavez has died of cancer after 14 years as President of Venezuela. The pictures from Caracas show clearly that he was hugely popular, revered even, amongst a substantial part of the country. What is his legacy?

A former army officer, who led a failed coup in the early 1990's and ended up being jailed, Mr. Chavez was the embodiment of a strong political strain in Latin America, namely the militaristic populist. This has traditionally manifested itself in right-wing dictatorships. Mr. Chavez was different in that he spoke the language of left-wing revolution, with the example of Cuba to the forefront; but his rule was a dictatorship, nevertheless. The courts were packed with sympathisers, opponents were emasculated by decrees or nationalisation of their businesses, public finances were murky. Domestic problems were swept aside in a fierce rhetoric against anybody abroad who disagreed with him, notably America, and a series of friendships with unsavoury people elsewhere; Iran, for example.

The reason he could do this was oil, of which Venezuela produces a lot. Under Mr. Chavez the national oil company became a personal fiefdom, with its riches diverted to social programmes. These programmes provided the basis for his popularity with the masses, which meant that he could be reelected last October, even though it was clear that he was very ill.

Unfortunately for Venezuela, his model is not sustainable. The country exports a lot of oil, but virtually nothing else. The gap between the official exchange rate and the black market is enormous. Many of those social programmes have been started, but have not been seen through. And by concentrating all power in the presidency, there is no political infrastructure to take his ideas forward.

Indeed, the history of Mr. Chavez' politics is very similar to the history of Mr. Chavez' illness. Lots of bold statements, protestations that things were going well when it was clear that they were not, a refusal to admit reality, harsh words for anyone bold enough to disagree. In the end, medical reality set in. The question for Mr. Chavez' successor is whether political reality will set in, or whether Venezuela will follow the path of its revolutionary friend Cuba and condemn its people to poverty.    

Walter Blotscher