Thursday 30 April 2015

MORTGAGE INTEREST RATES (4)

Is there no end to the decline in interest rates? I have today received a letter, telling me that the interest rates for the next six months on the two loans on our house (30 years, interest only for the first 10) are 0.86% and a staggering 0.51% respectively.

Great for us; not so good if you are a pensioner living on savings.  

Walter Blotscher

Wednesday 29 April 2015

INDONESIA

There's something more than slightly unsavoury about the recent executions in Indonesia. I understand the fact that the country has a very big drug problem, and that foreigners smuggling drugs make that problem bigger. However, killing a few people is not going to end that problem, as evidence from elsewhere in the world shows.

Ultimately, the death penalty is a moral issue; do you think it's OK that the state has the right to take someone's life? I think not.

Walter Blotscher

Tuesday 28 April 2015

PINK (2)

Despite my daughter's reservations, I still like Pink. I am in fact learning to play some of her songs on the guitar, so that the girls at my school can give a little concert.

Walter Blotscher

Monday 27 April 2015

CITIZENSHIP

Denmark is getting itself into a right pickle about foreigners. On the one hand, it is worried silly about asylum seekers, economic migrants and other undesirables entering the country and not integrating. On the other, its rich but infertile couples are busily adopting Chinese, Vietnamese, African and Columbian babies whenever they can. And the authorities are giving out citizenship left, right and centre, and not to people like me (who don't need it, since I am already an E.U. citizen, and who wouldn't want it anyway).

Figures for the latter make my point. The list of new citizens is decided on twice a year, and the figure for the first half of 2015 is 3,314. That is more than twice what it was in the second half of last year, and almost five times what it was in the first half of 2013.

Doubling for the full year, and it is still only around 0.1% of Denmark's current population. However, new citizens tend to be younger than average, have more babies than average, and are darker skinned than average. Over time, this is going to have a big effect on what it means to be a Dane.

Walter Blotscher

Sunday 26 April 2015

THE WARS OF THE ROSES

1420 marks the high-water mark of English influence on the continent of Europe. The famous battle of Agincourt in 1415 had been one of those relatively few mediæval battles (Hastings, Bannockburn, Bouvines, Tannenberg) that had been utterly decisive, with large numbers of the French nobility killed. It took the English king Henry V a few more years of campaigning; but in the Treaty of Troyes, he was recognised as regent and heir to the French throne, a position he cemented by marrying the daughter of the French king Charles VI. Since Charles was old, often ill, and suffered from bouts of insanity, it would not be long before Henry ruled both England and France.

One of the great "what if?"s of history. Because against all expectations, Henry died of dysentery at the age of 35 in 1422, some two months before Charles. True, he left an infant son Henry, who was legally entitled to inherit his father's claims. However, royal infants were always a problem in those times, especially when Charles had an adult son, the Dauphin, who unsurprisingly thought that he ought to inherit the throne and who could rally French support. Backed by the messianic Joan of Arc, the French soon started nibbling away at English territorial positions in northern France. Within 30 years, the only English possession left on French soil was the port of Calais and an enclave around it.

English nobles used to strutting their stuff abroad were annoyed at their loss of lands, titles and prestige. A strong English king could probably have kept them in hand. But the problem of the royal infant grew up to become the problem of the royal king, since Henry VI had inherited his grandfather's tendency to ill health and periodic insanity. The stage was set for 30 years of civil war, as those nobles who supported the royal house of Lancaster battled against those who supported the house of York, the most powerful dukedom.

Might was important in the Middle Ages, but so too was legitimacy. A man might be strong enough to become king, but he also had to have some sort of right, and here the respective rights of York and Lancaster become complicated. Go back from the fifteenth to the fourteenth century, and King Edward III had seven sons, two of whom died in infancy. The line of the first survivor ended in Richard II, who was pushed from the throne and murdered by Henry IV (Henry V's father), originally the Duke of Lancaster, the line of the third. The Duke of York's line was the fourth son, and so should have been subordinate under the rules of primogeniture. However, the line of the second son (the Earl of March) ended in a girl, who eventually married the Duke of York. So the slightly abstruse question became whether York could leapfrog Lancaster in the hierarchy by taking over the rights of March, which he had acquired through his marriage.

A similar question had resulted in the Hundred Years' War between England and France, of which Agincourt was a part. Now the battles were on English soil. They went one way and then the other before Henry Tudor won at Bosworth Field in 1485 and founded a new dynasty, the Tudors. All that remained were the white rose of York and the red rose of Lancaster, which are still sported today at cricket matches between the two counties.

Walter Blotscher

Saturday 25 April 2015

A.P.McCOY (4)

The incomparable A.P.McCoy retired this afternoon, after riding his last horse race at a packed Sandown Park. 20 years as a jump jockey, 20 jump jockey titles, more than 4,300 winners, and more than 40 broken bones.

An incredible record. He was at the top of his sport for 1,040 consecutive weeks. That compares with 545 for Tiger Woods in golf, and a measly 302 for the great Roger Federer in tennis.

The only thing missing was a winner in his last race. Perhaps fittingly, that race was won by a horse ridden by Richard Johnson, the man who has been runner-up to McCoy in the championship a remarkable 16 times. Hopefully Johnson will finally get to win the title next year, now that McCoy is finally gone.

Walter Blotscher

Thursday 23 April 2015

TRANSFER INCOMES (3)

There are a lot of people in Denmark who are on transfer incomes, that is they are of working age, but are not working. In the third quarter of 2014, the number was 772,400, or roughly a fifth of the population. Economists and politicians spend a lot of time worrying about how to get these people into work, since if they could, there would be a positive double whammy to the state's finances; higher taxes and lower benefits. Is it possible?

Of the total, 221,500 of them were on "before time pensions"; in other words they have been medically diagnosed as being incapable, either physically or mentally, of ever working again and so get a pension for the rest of their lives. 86,600 were on efterløn, in their 60's but having retired early. 56,300 were sick and 53,800 were on maternity leave. A further 68,300 were working part-time, because they are not capable of holding down a full-time job.

Not much can be done about any of these groups. Of the remainder, roughly 160,000 were on kontanthjaelp, the lowest possible state benefit; and roughly 120,000 were unemployed. There are many reasons why people end up on kontanthjælp. One is that they lose their job and don't find another one, before their right to unemployment benefit (which is higher than kontanthjælp) ends. Another is that they are drug addicts, or have similar social problems, but are not considered in such a bad way that they can get a before time pension. Another is young people who have neither an education nor a job. Whatever the reason, getting these people off kontanthjælp is not easy.

Which leaves the unemployed. The 120,000 is a gross figure, meaning that some of those classed as unemployed will find a job in due course (and may well already have done so). Reducing the figure further depends - realistically - on the state of the economy, which is getting slowly better. So that figure could fall, albeit slowly.

All of which shows that if you have built up a big welfare state, it is extremely difficult to dismantle it. The only way the number on transfer incomes will fall markedly is when those people become pensioners, itself a transfer income, but not included as such. There are difficult times ahead.

Walter Blotscher

Wednesday 22 April 2015

TERROR IN COPENHAGEN

There was a terrorist attack in Copenhagen, while I was in London getting my new passport. A meeting was held in the afternoon of Saturday 14 February at Krudttønden to debate culture, blasphemy and freedom of expression. One of those present was a Swedish cartoonist called Lars Vilks, famous (notorious) for cartoons depicting the Prophet Mohammed. Partly because of his participation, there was a large police presence; in Sweden, he has round the clock police protection.

Some 30 minutes after the debate had started, a man pitched up with an M95 assault rifle and started shooting through the glass front window. Mr. Vilks was not hit, but a Danish film director was killed and three policemen wounded. The assailant fled in a stolen car. Just after midnight he approaches the Copenhagen Synagogue, shoots and kills a volunteer Jewish security guard, and wounds two more policemen. Later that night he is cornered in a building, comes out with guns blazing and is killed by the police.

Since the episode, Danish newspapers and other media have been full of what many believe is the country's "9/11 moment". Three issues in particular stand out. First, should there be any limits to freedom of expression, notably in regard to religion? Secondly, given that the assailant, a Muslim man of Palestinian origin, was a Danish citizen, what if anything can be done to prevent the sort of radicalisation that leads to terrorist activities? And thirdly, did (and do) the authorities do enough to protect Jews in Denmark, given that the Synagogue had on a number of occasions noted increasing anti-semitism and had formally asked for better police protection?

The Danish elite is firmly convinced that the answer to question one is no. My personal view is that this is misguided; despite Voltaire's maxim, having the right to insult someone doesn't necessarily mean that you should exercise that right time and time again. Not least because it makes the answer to question two much more difficult. There is no easy solution to this problem, only a long, hard slog to try to convince Danish Muslims (and young men in particular) that Danish values can coexist with their religious beliefs.

For politicians anxious to be seen to be "doing something", that leaves question three. The scrap about what exactly the police did or did not do in February, whether they could have done more, and who should be held responsible if it is discovered that they could, has already begun. With a general election due by September at the latest, the chorus of claims and counterclaims will only get louder. It will be inedifying and (whisper it softly) probably irrelevant. But it will take up lots of column inches and TV hours and demand much Government time.    

Walter Blotscher

Tuesday 21 April 2015

ADVERT DIFFERENCES

There is a big difference in adverts between the U.K. and Denmark, which I noticed the last time I was back in England and listening to the radio in my hire car or watching the television in my mother's house. The adverts themselves are very similar; the difference comes at the end. In Denmark, they just stop. However, in the U.K. the voice-over proceeds to read - very quickly, since it's long and boring - all of what I would term the small print, finishing off with a standard "terms and conditions apply".

I don't know why they do this in the U.K., not least because the monotonous reading of legalese usually manages to puncture the mood that the advert has worked so hard to create. I also don't know why they say terms and conditions. In English law, a contract has terms; and these terms are divided into conditions (essentially hard terms) and warranties (softer terms). The phrase terms and conditions is, therefore, a bit of an oddity.

Walter Blotscher

Monday 20 April 2015

EMPLOYMENT

Denmark is slowly pulling itself out of the trough it entered back in 2008. Between the fourth quarter of 2011 and the fourth quarter of 2014 the economy created a net 29,000 jobs. What's most cheering is that although fiscal austerity has led to 12,500 fewer jobs in the public sector, that is more than balanced by the creation of 41,500 jobs in the private sector.

However, not everything is rosy. Almost 33,000 of those new jobs were in either Copenhagen or Aarhus, accentuating the trend that jobs are moving to the big cities. Elsewhere, private sector job creation has been modest; and in South Zealand and on Bornholm it has been negative. In these areas, and in West and Northern Jutland (the so-called "edges" of Denmark) net employment is still falling. Without something new, that is likely to continue, bringing social problems in its wake.

Walter Blotscher

Sunday 19 April 2015

SINGAPORE (2)

The founder of modern Singapore, Lee Kuan Yew, died recently. He was the country's first Prime Minister after independence from Britain, held the post for 31 years, remained in the Cabinet for a further 21, and died at the ripe old age of 91. His son is the current Prime Minister of a country whose fortunes have been transformed during the past 60 years from a poor, sleepy backwater into one of the richest in the world.

Why has Singapore, a developing country with almost no natural resources, succeeded when so many potentially richer countries have failed? The key lies in that lack. Singapore has nothing, not even fresh water, which it imports from Malaysia; so it has had no choice but to live from the wits of its people. It was also fortunate in that Mr. Yew both had many wits, and was incorruptible. Many studies have shown that clean and efficient government matters in development, indeed it matters even more than money. If African countries had leaders with his qualities, then they would do a lot better.

I visited Singapore for the first time last summer, and it is impressive. The land area is 25% bigger than at independence; if the size of an island is limited, then there is no choice but to reclaim it from the sea. 25% of all rainwater is recycled and that percentage is likely to rise; if you otherwise have to import it from a neighbour with whom you have troubled relations, then what else can you do?

And yet. For all its impressive economic performance, I couldn't live there. And not just because of its humid climate, which is either muggy, very muggy or extremely muggy (I was there when it was supposedly not too bad, and I felt that I was living in a sauna). Perhaps the biggest reason why Singapore works is that it has a majority Chinese population who are willing to accept what is essentially a top-down driven system. People there accept what people in the Western world could never accept; putting the group above the individual, having both draconian (the death penalty for drug smuggling) and petty (no chewing gum) laws; deciding everything by tests and examinations.  

All in all, it was impressive, but didn't seem to be much fun.

Walter Blotscher

Saturday 18 April 2015

BREAKING BAD

My wife and I came to the end of Breaking Bad this evening. The original spanned 62 episodes, over 5 seasons. We did the whole thing in three months on Netflix. It's great television, and I will miss it.

I still have a long way to go on Mad Men. Since I am watching it on my own, when my wife is not around, it will take me some time. But that's OK.

Walter Blotscher

Friday 17 April 2015

HOSPITALS

I have just come back from visiting my Mum in hospital in the U.K. Fortunately for me, I have only rarely been in hospital during my life. Once, when I had my tonsils and adenoids out as a child; and once, in 2004, when I broke my arm in a cycling accident. I remember the latter, since it happened during the Barcelona Olympics, and I could watch sport all day on the TV.

What struck me this time was how complex an organisation a modern hospital is. The main hospital in Derby, where she was being treated, is new and vast, the size of a modern airport. There are endless corridors and lifts and stairs and parking areas and shops; and so on and so forth.

The ward she was in had 28 beds. Those 28 people were looked after by at least that number. Not just doctors and nurses, but physiotherapists, occupational therapists, cleaners, caterers, quality control executives, porters, psychologists and volunteers. And others whose job I couldn't work out. All seemed to spend vast amounts of time writing things down in files, meaning, in turn, that they actually spent very little time talking to my Mum.

They say that there is a very strong correlation between the amount of care and attention you get in hospital and the speed with which you get out of it. Given that, the trend in modern public life, whereby you have to write down and justify everything you have done, seems a bit self-defeating.

Walter Blotscher

Thursday 16 April 2015

DOC MARTENS

Doctor ("Doc") Martens are a particular type of shoe. The key thing that makes them different is the rubbery/plastic'y sole, which I presume is (or, at least, was) patented. Back in the 1970's when I was a lad, they mainly made boots (bovver boots in the jargon). Originally intended for dockworkers, construction workers and others who had a heavy manual job, they became appropriated by skinheads, who wore them to football matches and used them to beat the crap out of the opposing team's supporters if they got the chance.

Skinheads and bovver boots went out with punk and non-seater football stadiums, and Doc Martens changed too, making shoes as well. I liked them, since I have flat feet, and the sole is very good in that regard. I started off with the ox-blood ones, which I wore during the 1980's (and unfortunately got stolen), and then bought a pair of black ones, which I have had ever since.

Now, belatedly, Doc Martens have arrived in Denmark, and have become a bit of a fashion item amongst the young, particularly teenage girls. My trusty pair were beginning to look a bit shabby, so I bought a new black pair when I was in England this week. The only real difference from the shoes of 30 years ago is some yellow stitching around the top of the sole, otherwise they are just the same as they were back then. Needless to say, my street cred with my young mathematics students has just gone up a notch or two.

Walter Blotscher

Wednesday 15 April 2015

SWAN LAKE

Classical ballet, like opera, is a bit ridiculous. It's either very thin women with huge feet and a tutu, or very muscular men in tights and small jackets. And idiotic plots. But the combination of the dancing and the music can be fantastic.

If you were going to watch a ballet for the first time, then you'd be hard pressed to beat Swan Lake. Tchaikovsky's music is simply wonderful. And although the plot is all about spells and swans, it doesn't really matter.

The Danish Royal Theatre has done a deal with cinemas out in the sticks, whereby we can show three live performances a year for three years; an opera, a play and a ballet from each season. They are transmitted via our satellite dish, and we split the revenues. We showed Rosenkavalier and Romeo and Juliet in the autumn, tonight it was the turn of Swan Lake.

I thought we might get a full house, but was still surprised by how many people wanted to come. In the end, we had to turn some away, and we three "employees" had to sit on the steps. The technology, both sound and vision, was excellent; the customers loved it (plus the free champagne in the interval). And all for kr.165 a head.

Walter Blotscher

Tuesday 7 April 2015

MY MUM (3)

My Mum is not very well, and is in hospital in England with broken bones. I am going to visit her tomorrow, and will not be back until next week. So no blogging for a while.

Walter Blotscher

Sunday 5 April 2015

PANDAS

Pandas are an old species. Old in this sense means more than 5 million years old, and pandas are reckoned to be around 8 million years old. However, they have changed markedly during that time. They used to be carnivorous, but are now almost wholly herbivorous, eating just bamboo.

They are also pretty useless. There are lots of different types of bamboo, but pandas are picky, eating just one of them. Their digestive systems mean that they can only extract about 20% of the bamboo's nutrition, making it imperative that they don't exert themselves too much (one reason why they sleep so much). They are hopeless at reproducing, being not very interested in mating and giving birth to babies, which are essentially premature. Many panda mothers lack a maternal instinct, meaning that they reject their offspring. And so on.

The one thing that pandas have going for them is that they look really cute, appealing to human emotions and leading us to protect them. Indeed, if it weren't for humans, pandas would probably be extinct by now.

When in Chengdu, I visited the national panda research and breeding institute. It was morning, so the pandas were fairly active, meaning that they were eating their fresh bamboo, specially brought in from the mountains. Then they rolled onto their backs or climbed into a tree and went to sleep. As I say, cute but useless.

Walter Blotscher

Saturday 4 April 2015

CYCLING (3)

Today I went for my first cycle ride of 2015. Not very far, a mere 15 km or so. I felt terrible at the end of it, though happy that I had finally broken my duck.

Walter Blotscher

Friday 3 April 2015

SPRING

When is spring going to arrive? On Tuesday it snowed, and it is still freezing at night. I am getting bored of winter.

Walter Blotscher