A SHORT HOLIDAY
I am off to the U.K. tomorrow morning for 10 days. I will visit my Mum, and go on my annual walking holiday in the Lake District. So no blogging before early June.
Walter Blotscher
Friday 23 May 2014
Thursday 22 May 2014
NOT GOOD AT MEASURING
The French national train operator SNCF has ordered 2,000 new trains, at a total cost of some Euros15 billion. Unfortunately, the trains, which are yet to be delivered, have a problem; they are too big for many French railway stations.
How can that be? Apparently, the company responsible for the track infrastructure gave SNCF measurements based on modern platforms. These ignored the many regional platforms, which were built more than 50 years ago, and which were bigger (trains being correspondingly narrower then). Construction work has begun on narrowing the platforms (which presumably entails not much more than bashing bits of concrete off the sides). But 1,000 platforms still need to be adjusted.
Fortunately, someone realised that there was a problem before the trains were delivered. But the story does highlight some of the difficulties of separating railway infrastructure from operations. My brother, who worked for the railways all his working life, always said that it was a mistake to separate the two. A railway is a complex organisation, and the various bits need to work with, and understand, the other bits.
Walter Blotscher
The French national train operator SNCF has ordered 2,000 new trains, at a total cost of some Euros15 billion. Unfortunately, the trains, which are yet to be delivered, have a problem; they are too big for many French railway stations.
How can that be? Apparently, the company responsible for the track infrastructure gave SNCF measurements based on modern platforms. These ignored the many regional platforms, which were built more than 50 years ago, and which were bigger (trains being correspondingly narrower then). Construction work has begun on narrowing the platforms (which presumably entails not much more than bashing bits of concrete off the sides). But 1,000 platforms still need to be adjusted.
Fortunately, someone realised that there was a problem before the trains were delivered. But the story does highlight some of the difficulties of separating railway infrastructure from operations. My brother, who worked for the railways all his working life, always said that it was a mistake to separate the two. A railway is a complex organisation, and the various bits need to work with, and understand, the other bits.
Walter Blotscher
Wednesday 21 May 2014
DANISH REFERENDA
Denmark's basic law (last amended in 1953 so that a woman could ascend the throne) provides for a referendum in certain situations. One of those is where sovereignty is ceded. Constitutional lawyers have held that the establishment of a European patent court involves a loss of sovereignty, so section 20 of the basic law comes into play. This does not automatically lead to a referendum, but the Parliamentary vote in favour of the new measure has to be passed by a super-majority of five sixths of all MP's for there not to be one. Since both the far-left Enhedslisten and far-right Danish People's Party are against the patent court, it was not possible for the bill to meet the super-majority test. Danes will, therefore, on Sunday both vote in the European elections and vote for or against the country's participation in the new patent court.
However, there is a further curiosity. The basic law also spells out what happens (as happened in this case) where there is a solid Parliamentary majority, but not a five sixths majority. If the referendum produces a majority in favour of the measure, then it is passed. But if the referendum produces a majority against the measure, it doesn't necessarily mean that the measure is dead. The no votes have to represent 30% of all eligible voters; which is a higher bar than a mere 50% of all people voting, whenever voter turnout is less than 60%.
What this means is that a measure can pass, even though there has been a referendum which produces a no vote (in the jargon, this is called a political no rather than a legal no), since the number of naysayers, though a majority, is not big enough. Given the fact that turnout in European elections is both low and falling over time, this outcome is quite possible this time. The monkey would then pass back to politicians, who would have to decide whether to heed the will of the people or heed the will of Parliament.
All of the major political parties are (of course) saying that they hope for a yes majority in the referendum, in which case the problem goes away. But if it doesn't, then discussions on Sunday evening could end up being quite interesting.
Walter Blotscher
Denmark's basic law (last amended in 1953 so that a woman could ascend the throne) provides for a referendum in certain situations. One of those is where sovereignty is ceded. Constitutional lawyers have held that the establishment of a European patent court involves a loss of sovereignty, so section 20 of the basic law comes into play. This does not automatically lead to a referendum, but the Parliamentary vote in favour of the new measure has to be passed by a super-majority of five sixths of all MP's for there not to be one. Since both the far-left Enhedslisten and far-right Danish People's Party are against the patent court, it was not possible for the bill to meet the super-majority test. Danes will, therefore, on Sunday both vote in the European elections and vote for or against the country's participation in the new patent court.
However, there is a further curiosity. The basic law also spells out what happens (as happened in this case) where there is a solid Parliamentary majority, but not a five sixths majority. If the referendum produces a majority in favour of the measure, then it is passed. But if the referendum produces a majority against the measure, it doesn't necessarily mean that the measure is dead. The no votes have to represent 30% of all eligible voters; which is a higher bar than a mere 50% of all people voting, whenever voter turnout is less than 60%.
What this means is that a measure can pass, even though there has been a referendum which produces a no vote (in the jargon, this is called a political no rather than a legal no), since the number of naysayers, though a majority, is not big enough. Given the fact that turnout in European elections is both low and falling over time, this outcome is quite possible this time. The monkey would then pass back to politicians, who would have to decide whether to heed the will of the people or heed the will of Parliament.
All of the major political parties are (of course) saying that they hope for a yes majority in the referendum, in which case the problem goes away. But if it doesn't, then discussions on Sunday evening could end up being quite interesting.
Walter Blotscher
Tuesday 20 May 2014
MINES AND FLOODING
The floods in the former Yugoslavia are the worst ever recorded, the Sava river being particularly hard hit. Apart from the damage to buildings, people and livestock caused by the water, it has shifted many of the thousands of landmines remaining from the former civil war. Getting rid of mines whose position is known precisely is one thing; getting rid of mines that have floated off somewhere else is quite another matter.
For the people affected, this is not the first time that disaster has struck. It will not be easy to recover.
Walter Blotscher
The floods in the former Yugoslavia are the worst ever recorded, the Sava river being particularly hard hit. Apart from the damage to buildings, people and livestock caused by the water, it has shifted many of the thousands of landmines remaining from the former civil war. Getting rid of mines whose position is known precisely is one thing; getting rid of mines that have floated off somewhere else is quite another matter.
For the people affected, this is not the first time that disaster has struck. It will not be easy to recover.
Walter Blotscher
Monday 19 May 2014
HOIST WITH HIS OWN PETARD
The other day I taught my English class the meaning of "hoist with his own petard". A petard was the mediæval prototype of a bomb, which was raised in a siege engine and flung over the walls of the town that was being besieged in the hope that it would explode on landing and do damage. Being hoist along with the bomb would not have been a good idea; so the expression has come to mean "to have to live with the consequences", even if they are unpleasant.
The expression could also be used in the context of Danish politics. Lars Løkke Rasmussen is desperately trying to portray the tax consequences of his many benefits-in-kind as a private matter, which has nothing to do with other politicians, voters, the media or anyone else. The problem is that when current Prime Minister Helle Thorning-Schmidt had tax issues some years ago (issues which are still being investigated today), Lars Løkke and his lieutenants were in the forefront of attempts to pressure her to make her tax affairs public. Pressure which won out in the end.
As the 16-year olds in my English class could now tell him, he is hoist with his own petard.
Walter Blotscher
The other day I taught my English class the meaning of "hoist with his own petard". A petard was the mediæval prototype of a bomb, which was raised in a siege engine and flung over the walls of the town that was being besieged in the hope that it would explode on landing and do damage. Being hoist along with the bomb would not have been a good idea; so the expression has come to mean "to have to live with the consequences", even if they are unpleasant.
The expression could also be used in the context of Danish politics. Lars Løkke Rasmussen is desperately trying to portray the tax consequences of his many benefits-in-kind as a private matter, which has nothing to do with other politicians, voters, the media or anyone else. The problem is that when current Prime Minister Helle Thorning-Schmidt had tax issues some years ago (issues which are still being investigated today), Lars Løkke and his lieutenants were in the forefront of attempts to pressure her to make her tax affairs public. Pressure which won out in the end.
As the 16-year olds in my English class could now tell him, he is hoist with his own petard.
Walter Blotscher
Sunday 18 May 2014
COMMUTING
Compared with (say) the U.K., commuting in Denmark is relatively easy. I drive 44km to the school where I work; on good roads with little traffic, it takes me about half an hour. Traffic jams are non-existent.
Even so, the nature of commuting is changing here, particularly since the start of the financial crisis. Basically, the number of commutes has fallen, but their average length has risen, from 38km in 2008 to 43km today. As jobs have become scarce, particularly out in the sticks, so people have to travel to the big cities in order to work.
Walter Blotscher
Compared with (say) the U.K., commuting in Denmark is relatively easy. I drive 44km to the school where I work; on good roads with little traffic, it takes me about half an hour. Traffic jams are non-existent.
Even so, the nature of commuting is changing here, particularly since the start of the financial crisis. Basically, the number of commutes has fallen, but their average length has risen, from 38km in 2008 to 43km today. As jobs have become scarce, particularly out in the sticks, so people have to travel to the big cities in order to work.
Walter Blotscher
Saturday 17 May 2014
DENMARK AND NORWAY (2)
Today is the 200th anniversary of the dissolution of the union between Noway and Denmark. As you might expect, the countries have different attitudes to it. In Norway hundreds of thousands of people lined the streets of Oslo in bright sunshine in a big folkefest; the speaker of the Danish Parliament became the first foreigner since Winston Churchill to address the Norwegian Parliament; the Danish queen will be part of the celebrations. Here in Denmark, on the other hand, it was barely mentioned.
Walter Blotscher
Today is the 200th anniversary of the dissolution of the union between Noway and Denmark. As you might expect, the countries have different attitudes to it. In Norway hundreds of thousands of people lined the streets of Oslo in bright sunshine in a big folkefest; the speaker of the Danish Parliament became the first foreigner since Winston Churchill to address the Norwegian Parliament; the Danish queen will be part of the celebrations. Here in Denmark, on the other hand, it was barely mentioned.
Walter Blotscher
Friday 16 May 2014
MOLE WARFARE (14)
Hey guys, where are you? There has been no activity for three months. Have I really exterminated a whole army?
Walter Blotscher
Hey guys, where are you? There has been no activity for three months. Have I really exterminated a whole army?
Walter Blotscher
Thursday 15 May 2014
A KLAPHAT
Lars Løkke Rasmussen, the former and likely-to-be-next Prime Minister of Denmark, has a problem with expense claims. Last autumn was dominated by tales of how much money he got in travel and hotel expenses for being Chairman of a Government-funded organisation that didn't seem to do very much except fly him around the world in luxury. This was on top of previous episodes from before he was in Government and when he was a Minister. At a time of austerity, voters were not impressed.
Now more muck has emerged. Back in 2011, when he was Prime Minister, his party Venstre decided to give him some money for clothes, so that he would look good in the forthcoming general election campaign (which he narrowly lost). Leave aside the fact that most Danes think that they should buy their own workclothes, particularly if they are paid a Prime Minister's salary. It was the amount, kr.152.000 (roughly £17,000), that made people gawp. Vast numbers of suits and shirts; shoes at £300 a pair. Etc, etc.
There are two further potential problems. The first is tax. These are benefits-in-kind from an employer, so if they are above the de minimis level (which these certainly were), then the value should be declared and taxed as income. Mr. Rasmussen says that all the paperwork is in order; though he refuses to prove that. Moreover, he said that about the earlier cases, and that turned out not to be true. What are the odds that it will be true in this case as well?
Secondly, political parties in Denmark are financed (in part) by the state, based on the number of votes that they get at general elections. In other words, although the payments were made by a political party, they can also be viewed as being financed by taxpayers. Said taxpayers are not amused, particularly as leaders in other Nordic countries (which Denmark is continually comparing itself with) buy their own wardrobes.
Klaphat (literally "clap hat") is a Danish word used to describe those big hats that sports fans use, where the ears can clap. In common speech, it also means an idiot. In not being able to see how such luxurious arrangements look to the average Dane, Lars Løkke Rasmussen has without doubt shown himself to be a klaphat. The most worrying thing is that despite that, he may yet be the country's next Prime Minister.
Walter Blotscher
Lars Løkke Rasmussen, the former and likely-to-be-next Prime Minister of Denmark, has a problem with expense claims. Last autumn was dominated by tales of how much money he got in travel and hotel expenses for being Chairman of a Government-funded organisation that didn't seem to do very much except fly him around the world in luxury. This was on top of previous episodes from before he was in Government and when he was a Minister. At a time of austerity, voters were not impressed.
Now more muck has emerged. Back in 2011, when he was Prime Minister, his party Venstre decided to give him some money for clothes, so that he would look good in the forthcoming general election campaign (which he narrowly lost). Leave aside the fact that most Danes think that they should buy their own workclothes, particularly if they are paid a Prime Minister's salary. It was the amount, kr.152.000 (roughly £17,000), that made people gawp. Vast numbers of suits and shirts; shoes at £300 a pair. Etc, etc.
There are two further potential problems. The first is tax. These are benefits-in-kind from an employer, so if they are above the de minimis level (which these certainly were), then the value should be declared and taxed as income. Mr. Rasmussen says that all the paperwork is in order; though he refuses to prove that. Moreover, he said that about the earlier cases, and that turned out not to be true. What are the odds that it will be true in this case as well?
Secondly, political parties in Denmark are financed (in part) by the state, based on the number of votes that they get at general elections. In other words, although the payments were made by a political party, they can also be viewed as being financed by taxpayers. Said taxpayers are not amused, particularly as leaders in other Nordic countries (which Denmark is continually comparing itself with) buy their own wardrobes.
Klaphat (literally "clap hat") is a Danish word used to describe those big hats that sports fans use, where the ears can clap. In common speech, it also means an idiot. In not being able to see how such luxurious arrangements look to the average Dane, Lars Løkke Rasmussen has without doubt shown himself to be a klaphat. The most worrying thing is that despite that, he may yet be the country's next Prime Minister.
Walter Blotscher
Wednesday 14 May 2014
POPULATION GROWTH (2)
Denmark's population has grown only slowly during the past five years; by just 115,000, out of a total of more than 5.5 million. But what is really interesting/worrying is that only 15,000 of those people were Danes; the rest were immigrants of one kind or another, split roughly half and half between "western" and "non-western". The fact of the matter is that Denmark, like many European countries, is simply not producing enough babies. Indeed, it is producing fewer and fewer; 55,436 new Danes were born in 2007, but only 45,466 in 2013, a fall of 18%.
What is depressing about these statistics is not the numbers themselves, but politicians' attitudes to them. The leaders of all the political parties a) know these facts and b) know that doing anything about it today would take at least 20 years to produce an effect. Yet they continue to prattle on (eg as part of the current European election campaigns) that it should not be easy for immigrants to enter Denmark, since the country can easily afford its welfare system without them. This Panglossian view of things is going to end in tears, the only question is when.
Walter Blotscher
Denmark's population has grown only slowly during the past five years; by just 115,000, out of a total of more than 5.5 million. But what is really interesting/worrying is that only 15,000 of those people were Danes; the rest were immigrants of one kind or another, split roughly half and half between "western" and "non-western". The fact of the matter is that Denmark, like many European countries, is simply not producing enough babies. Indeed, it is producing fewer and fewer; 55,436 new Danes were born in 2007, but only 45,466 in 2013, a fall of 18%.
What is depressing about these statistics is not the numbers themselves, but politicians' attitudes to them. The leaders of all the political parties a) know these facts and b) know that doing anything about it today would take at least 20 years to produce an effect. Yet they continue to prattle on (eg as part of the current European election campaigns) that it should not be easy for immigrants to enter Denmark, since the country can easily afford its welfare system without them. This Panglossian view of things is going to end in tears, the only question is when.
Walter Blotscher
Tuesday 13 May 2014
EAST AFRICAN RAILWAYS
Britain's former colonies differ from those of other European countries in two respects; they were given the common law tradition, and the colonial power built railways.The former is still going strong (though in some countries it is open to corruption and other abuse); but the latter are looking a bit creaky. Since independence, the colonies have been poor at maintaining or investing in infrastructure. The East African railways, built at the end of the nineteenth century mainly with imported Indian labour, are no exception.
So this week's announcement that a new railway line is to be built from Mombasa to Nairobi in Kenya is both welcome and timely. Many African countries are landlocked, and getting exports to a port and imports (mainly of fuel) into the country are both very difficult. Eventually the line will go on from Nairobi to Uganda, Rwanda, Burundi and South Sudan.
Inter-governmental agreements and projects have a dismal history in Africa. However, this one looks much more promising, since it will be built and 90% (though this will probably end up being closer to 100%) financed by the Chinese. During the Mao era, they built the Tanzam line between Dar es Salaam in Tanzania and Lusaka in Zambia, which still works (sort of), so they have form in the region. And they are much better at this sort of thing than they were 30-40 years ago. The first stage is scheduled to be completed in 2018.
All in all, some welcome news for the region.
Walter Blotscher
Britain's former colonies differ from those of other European countries in two respects; they were given the common law tradition, and the colonial power built railways.The former is still going strong (though in some countries it is open to corruption and other abuse); but the latter are looking a bit creaky. Since independence, the colonies have been poor at maintaining or investing in infrastructure. The East African railways, built at the end of the nineteenth century mainly with imported Indian labour, are no exception.
So this week's announcement that a new railway line is to be built from Mombasa to Nairobi in Kenya is both welcome and timely. Many African countries are landlocked, and getting exports to a port and imports (mainly of fuel) into the country are both very difficult. Eventually the line will go on from Nairobi to Uganda, Rwanda, Burundi and South Sudan.
Inter-governmental agreements and projects have a dismal history in Africa. However, this one looks much more promising, since it will be built and 90% (though this will probably end up being closer to 100%) financed by the Chinese. During the Mao era, they built the Tanzam line between Dar es Salaam in Tanzania and Lusaka in Zambia, which still works (sort of), so they have form in the region. And they are much better at this sort of thing than they were 30-40 years ago. The first stage is scheduled to be completed in 2018.
All in all, some welcome news for the region.
Walter Blotscher
Sunday 11 May 2014
THE EUROVISION SONG CONTEST (5)
Denmark's victory in Malmö last year meant that last night's Eurovision song contest was held in Copenhagen. Since two victories in a row is highly unusual, most of the talk here beforehand was about the cost. Danmark's Radio (which is license fee funded) decided to hold it in a derelict former shipyard, which greatly increased the entertainment possibilities, but also hugely inflated the costs. The current estimate is kr.250 million (around £30 million), though that is likely to rise as final bills come in. There's lots of talk about intangible branding and tourist benefits, but it is still a pretty expensive evening.
Regarding the songs themselves, I really wanted the Netherlands to win. An act that consisted simply of professional musicians playing a good song was a radical innovation; most of the other countries stuck with the - in my view - naff strategy of lots of supernumerary dancers and other assorted extras. Ukraine had a man in a wheel like a hamster in a cage; Greece had a trampolinist; Azerbaijan had a trapeze artist; Poland had a particularly dreadful big-bosomed blond girl pretending to make butter. All of them left me baffled and wondering "why?". The Prime Minister of Poland was probably thinking the same thing.
Unfortunately, the Netherlands were outvoted by the bearded drag artist from Austria, who won with a power ballad. I am not sure the choice was wholly musical, there was probably a fair amount of statement making. But that's OK, it's not really a song contest, more of a show contest.
One thing did please me, I correctly predicted that France would come bottom. They did, with a mere two points.
Walter Blotscher
Denmark's victory in Malmö last year meant that last night's Eurovision song contest was held in Copenhagen. Since two victories in a row is highly unusual, most of the talk here beforehand was about the cost. Danmark's Radio (which is license fee funded) decided to hold it in a derelict former shipyard, which greatly increased the entertainment possibilities, but also hugely inflated the costs. The current estimate is kr.250 million (around £30 million), though that is likely to rise as final bills come in. There's lots of talk about intangible branding and tourist benefits, but it is still a pretty expensive evening.
Regarding the songs themselves, I really wanted the Netherlands to win. An act that consisted simply of professional musicians playing a good song was a radical innovation; most of the other countries stuck with the - in my view - naff strategy of lots of supernumerary dancers and other assorted extras. Ukraine had a man in a wheel like a hamster in a cage; Greece had a trampolinist; Azerbaijan had a trapeze artist; Poland had a particularly dreadful big-bosomed blond girl pretending to make butter. All of them left me baffled and wondering "why?". The Prime Minister of Poland was probably thinking the same thing.
Unfortunately, the Netherlands were outvoted by the bearded drag artist from Austria, who won with a power ballad. I am not sure the choice was wholly musical, there was probably a fair amount of statement making. But that's OK, it's not really a song contest, more of a show contest.
One thing did please me, I correctly predicted that France would come bottom. They did, with a mere two points.
Walter Blotscher
Saturday 10 May 2014
CHILD BENEFIT (4)
For the past couple of months, the Danish Government has been trying to come up with a policy on child benefit for foreign workers that appeases the opposition, but does not breach E.U. law. That has been an impossible task. Because the opposition wants to have some sort of "earn" principle (whereby workers have to be here for a certain length of time, before they earn the right to benefits); and it is precisely that principle that is against E.U. law, since it makes a distinction between Danish and non-Danish workers.
This week the issue came to a head. Parliament voted on the matter, and voted by a majority to continue to uphold the Danish law (which the Government wants to abolish, it being - in their view - not E.U compliant). The Government immediately said that it would ignore that decision, and continue to apply the current E.U. compliant administrative practices in defiance of Danish law.
Normally if a Government loses a Parliamentary vote, then it has to resign and call new elections. However, for that to happen in Denmark, the vote must be a confidence vote, which this was not. Nor will there be such a vote, since although some of the no parties are against the policy on child benefit, they do not want the Government to fall.
The whole thing took place against the background of the forthcoming European elections. All parties agree that the electorate is fed up with the E.U., so they are jockeying to present themselves as the most eurosceptic. Against that background, it is a disadvantage to be in Government, since you have to play by the rules.
Walter Blotscher
For the past couple of months, the Danish Government has been trying to come up with a policy on child benefit for foreign workers that appeases the opposition, but does not breach E.U. law. That has been an impossible task. Because the opposition wants to have some sort of "earn" principle (whereby workers have to be here for a certain length of time, before they earn the right to benefits); and it is precisely that principle that is against E.U. law, since it makes a distinction between Danish and non-Danish workers.
This week the issue came to a head. Parliament voted on the matter, and voted by a majority to continue to uphold the Danish law (which the Government wants to abolish, it being - in their view - not E.U compliant). The Government immediately said that it would ignore that decision, and continue to apply the current E.U. compliant administrative practices in defiance of Danish law.
Normally if a Government loses a Parliamentary vote, then it has to resign and call new elections. However, for that to happen in Denmark, the vote must be a confidence vote, which this was not. Nor will there be such a vote, since although some of the no parties are against the policy on child benefit, they do not want the Government to fall.
The whole thing took place against the background of the forthcoming European elections. All parties agree that the electorate is fed up with the E.U., so they are jockeying to present themselves as the most eurosceptic. Against that background, it is a disadvantage to be in Government, since you have to play by the rules.
Walter Blotscher
Friday 9 May 2014
POLITICAL HUMOUR
The Government announced measures to stimulate the economy this week. In the way of these things, it was announced as a "growth package", though there wasn't much inside the wrapping paper. Many of the measures were things like cutting red tape for small businesses; useful, but hardly eye-catching.
What was eye-catching was the humour on display. The package was presented by the leaders of the two-party (formerly three-party) coalition, Prime Minister Helle Thorning-Schmidt and Economy Minister Margrethe Vestager. Addressing the (mainly male) press corps and political opposition, Ms. Vestager said that men should focus less on the size of the package and more on its effect. This caused the Prime Minister to giggle; I thought it was quite a good joke from Denmark's most assured politician.
Walter Blotscher
The Government announced measures to stimulate the economy this week. In the way of these things, it was announced as a "growth package", though there wasn't much inside the wrapping paper. Many of the measures were things like cutting red tape for small businesses; useful, but hardly eye-catching.
What was eye-catching was the humour on display. The package was presented by the leaders of the two-party (formerly three-party) coalition, Prime Minister Helle Thorning-Schmidt and Economy Minister Margrethe Vestager. Addressing the (mainly male) press corps and political opposition, Ms. Vestager said that men should focus less on the size of the package and more on its effect. This caused the Prime Minister to giggle; I thought it was quite a good joke from Denmark's most assured politician.
Walter Blotscher
Thursday 8 May 2014
HARWICH-ESBJERG
140 years of Anglo-Danish history are set to end on 29 September, following DFDS' announcement that it will then close the North Sea ferry between the two (admittedly unexciting) ports. The reason is a toxic combination of competition from low-cost airlines such as Ryanair and Norwegian, which have caused passenger numbers to drop by some 75% from 300,000 passengers a year to around 79,000; and fuel costs, which are already high and which are set to rise by some 40% next year because of new E.U. environmental regulations. DFDS is losing money on the route, and doesn't expect that to change in the future.
The "England ferry", as it is known here in Denmark, is not my cup of tea. The North Sea can be an unforgiving place, even in the summer, and I am prone to sea sickness. Every time I have used it, I have felt at best queasy, at worst positively nauseous. My colleague on the board of the local cinema has just been on a big Caribbean and trans-Atlantic cruise. He loved it; it would be my idea of hell.
However, although I will stick to Ryanair in the future, I still think it's a shame that the ferry will go. Flying has its own disadvantages (cramped spaces, low baggage allowances, intrusive security, to name but three), and a number of people refuse to fly out of fear. It seems a bit odd that in removing the one feasible alternative of reaching the U.K., the number of transport choices for consumers is reduced.
Walter Blotscher
140 years of Anglo-Danish history are set to end on 29 September, following DFDS' announcement that it will then close the North Sea ferry between the two (admittedly unexciting) ports. The reason is a toxic combination of competition from low-cost airlines such as Ryanair and Norwegian, which have caused passenger numbers to drop by some 75% from 300,000 passengers a year to around 79,000; and fuel costs, which are already high and which are set to rise by some 40% next year because of new E.U. environmental regulations. DFDS is losing money on the route, and doesn't expect that to change in the future.
The "England ferry", as it is known here in Denmark, is not my cup of tea. The North Sea can be an unforgiving place, even in the summer, and I am prone to sea sickness. Every time I have used it, I have felt at best queasy, at worst positively nauseous. My colleague on the board of the local cinema has just been on a big Caribbean and trans-Atlantic cruise. He loved it; it would be my idea of hell.
However, although I will stick to Ryanair in the future, I still think it's a shame that the ferry will go. Flying has its own disadvantages (cramped spaces, low baggage allowances, intrusive security, to name but three), and a number of people refuse to fly out of fear. It seems a bit odd that in removing the one feasible alternative of reaching the U.K., the number of transport choices for consumers is reduced.
Walter Blotscher
Wednesday 7 May 2014
EXAMS
My (16/17 year-old) students are doing their public exams this week, and it is interesting to see how they react to them. In contrast to many other countries, they have virtually no effect; nearly everybody will be able to do what they want to do next year, even if they plough these exams. If that is the case, then why worry about them?
Yet worry about them is exactly what some do, and with a vengeance. One girl this morning was physically sobbing before we started; others have been in a panic for weeks.
Danes have relatively few exams, certainly when compared to what I went through. When I told my class that I had had formal exams twice a year in all subjects from the age of 7 to 18, they thought that I had been to some sort of Soviet labour camp. But on the basis of "what doesn't kill you makes you stronger", it did mean that I wasn't particularly phased by exams.
One thing is definitely true. If doing exams is boring, then invigilating them is ten times worse. Four hours this morning handing out extra sheets of paper and wandering around in silence was excruciating.
Walter Blotscher
My (16/17 year-old) students are doing their public exams this week, and it is interesting to see how they react to them. In contrast to many other countries, they have virtually no effect; nearly everybody will be able to do what they want to do next year, even if they plough these exams. If that is the case, then why worry about them?
Yet worry about them is exactly what some do, and with a vengeance. One girl this morning was physically sobbing before we started; others have been in a panic for weeks.
Danes have relatively few exams, certainly when compared to what I went through. When I told my class that I had had formal exams twice a year in all subjects from the age of 7 to 18, they thought that I had been to some sort of Soviet labour camp. But on the basis of "what doesn't kill you makes you stronger", it did mean that I wasn't particularly phased by exams.
One thing is definitely true. If doing exams is boring, then invigilating them is ten times worse. Four hours this morning handing out extra sheets of paper and wandering around in silence was excruciating.
Walter Blotscher
Tuesday 6 May 2014
NØDLØGN
Danish today has a new word, "nødløgn". It translates into English as "necessary lie"; nobody is happy about it.
Remember the slightly farcical story about the visit to Christiania, which cost the then Justice Minister his job last December? One of the consequences was that the top civil servant in the Ministry and one of her deputies (both of whom had helped the Minister put together the cock-and-bull story that essentially involved lying to Parliament) were sent on gardening leave, while a panel of three judges decided whether they had breached civil service rules.
The judges unanimously decided that the two civil servants had done nothing wrong, and absolved them completely. Although the story involved lying to Parliament, this "can best be described as an understandable and regrettable nødløgn".
Politicians of all stripes are, understandably, very upset with this decision; in most democracies, lying to Parliament is the one thing that ain't on. The list of unhappy politicos includes the new Justice Minister, who now has to rebuild the credibility of her department while relying on advice from two senior people, whom she believes to have behaved badly. That looks like a management situation, that is bound to end in tears.
The overall impression given is that lawyers are looking after other lawyers. That does not go down well with the average Dane.
Walter Blotscher
Danish today has a new word, "nødløgn". It translates into English as "necessary lie"; nobody is happy about it.
Remember the slightly farcical story about the visit to Christiania, which cost the then Justice Minister his job last December? One of the consequences was that the top civil servant in the Ministry and one of her deputies (both of whom had helped the Minister put together the cock-and-bull story that essentially involved lying to Parliament) were sent on gardening leave, while a panel of three judges decided whether they had breached civil service rules.
The judges unanimously decided that the two civil servants had done nothing wrong, and absolved them completely. Although the story involved lying to Parliament, this "can best be described as an understandable and regrettable nødløgn".
Politicians of all stripes are, understandably, very upset with this decision; in most democracies, lying to Parliament is the one thing that ain't on. The list of unhappy politicos includes the new Justice Minister, who now has to rebuild the credibility of her department while relying on advice from two senior people, whom she believes to have behaved badly. That looks like a management situation, that is bound to end in tears.
The overall impression given is that lawyers are looking after other lawyers. That does not go down well with the average Dane.
Walter Blotscher
Sunday 4 May 2014
DANISH EMIGRATION
There is a lot of talk here about pesky East Europeans and others coming to Denmark, but where do Danes go?
Within the E.U., the answer is clear; Sweden, the U.K. and Germany, in that order. The first takes people who hop over the Øresund and commute to Copenhagen from Malmö because housing is cheaper and marrying non-E.U. citizens easier there; the second because of the English language; and the third because Germany is Denmark's biggest trading partner.
Sweden and the U.K. are also two of only five countries in the E.U. (the others are the slightly odd, and small, Luxemburg, Malta and Cyprus), which attract more Danes to them than the other way around. Romania sends a lot of its citizens to Denmark; but in 2013, only 31 Danes moved to Romania. The figure for Bulgaria was even lower, just 19; for Slovenia a mere 3.
The attractions of Ljubljana and Sofia have obviously not infiltrated the Danish mentality. I suspect that that will remain so for a while.
Walter Blotscher
There is a lot of talk here about pesky East Europeans and others coming to Denmark, but where do Danes go?
Within the E.U., the answer is clear; Sweden, the U.K. and Germany, in that order. The first takes people who hop over the Øresund and commute to Copenhagen from Malmö because housing is cheaper and marrying non-E.U. citizens easier there; the second because of the English language; and the third because Germany is Denmark's biggest trading partner.
Sweden and the U.K. are also two of only five countries in the E.U. (the others are the slightly odd, and small, Luxemburg, Malta and Cyprus), which attract more Danes to them than the other way around. Romania sends a lot of its citizens to Denmark; but in 2013, only 31 Danes moved to Romania. The figure for Bulgaria was even lower, just 19; for Slovenia a mere 3.
The attractions of Ljubljana and Sofia have obviously not infiltrated the Danish mentality. I suspect that that will remain so for a while.
Walter Blotscher
Saturday 3 May 2014
PRIVATE DEBT
There is a flip side to Denmark's having the world's highest tax take and welfare state. It also has the world's largest private debt (gross debt as a percentage of disposable income). In 2010 this was over 300%, compared with 200% for Norway, just over 150% for Britain, and under 100% for Germany, France and Italy. In supposed profligates such as Spain and Portugal, it was under 150%; in Greece it was well under 100%.
Part of this is simply the mechanics of fractions. A high tax take automatically reduces disposable income, the denominator; so for any given debt, the numerator, Denmark's ratio will automatically be bigger. The numbers may well also have changed since 2010, in Greece for instance.
Nevertheless, this highlights an important point. It is not the level of public debt alone that matters in an economy, but the overall level of debt, both public and private. One reason why Italy can service the world's third biggest public debt is that private debt is correspondingly low. Something to remember when Danish politicians go on about how responsible they are. They are responsible because they have to be; Danish consumers are not.
Walter Blotscher
There is a flip side to Denmark's having the world's highest tax take and welfare state. It also has the world's largest private debt (gross debt as a percentage of disposable income). In 2010 this was over 300%, compared with 200% for Norway, just over 150% for Britain, and under 100% for Germany, France and Italy. In supposed profligates such as Spain and Portugal, it was under 150%; in Greece it was well under 100%.
Part of this is simply the mechanics of fractions. A high tax take automatically reduces disposable income, the denominator; so for any given debt, the numerator, Denmark's ratio will automatically be bigger. The numbers may well also have changed since 2010, in Greece for instance.
Nevertheless, this highlights an important point. It is not the level of public debt alone that matters in an economy, but the overall level of debt, both public and private. One reason why Italy can service the world's third biggest public debt is that private debt is correspondingly low. Something to remember when Danish politicians go on about how responsible they are. They are responsible because they have to be; Danish consumers are not.
Walter Blotscher
Friday 2 May 2014
NON-STOP
Non-Stop is a slightly preposterous thriller about the hijacking of a transatlantic aircraft. Liam Neeson plays the air marshal with personal problems (his beloved daughter has died of cancer, his wife has left him, thereby leading to a steady drift into alcoholism etc) who has to save everybody, while at the same time avoiding being stitched up by the dastardly clever bad guys (who are of course not quite clever enough to win in the end). I watched it this evening at the local cinema. As these sorts of things go, it was actually quite good. Although the final result is never in doubt, it had a sort of Agatha Christie Cleudo attraction in trying to work out which of the people in the drawing room (sorry, passengers) had done it with the lead piping (sorry, bombs and mobile telephones).
There were only two of us in the cinema, the operator and me. The film hasn't done very well in Denmark, I suspect because it is not really very good, and Europeans are not obsessed with security. This is in sharp contrast to the U.S., where they are so obsessed, and where it was a blockbuster, coming in at number one on its opening weekend and staying there for some time. So far the film has grossed close to US$200 million worldwide, against a budget of around US$50 million.
Which shows both that entertainment can be profitable and that in matters of taste and culture, people think differently. Thank goodness.
Walter Blotscher
Non-Stop is a slightly preposterous thriller about the hijacking of a transatlantic aircraft. Liam Neeson plays the air marshal with personal problems (his beloved daughter has died of cancer, his wife has left him, thereby leading to a steady drift into alcoholism etc) who has to save everybody, while at the same time avoiding being stitched up by the dastardly clever bad guys (who are of course not quite clever enough to win in the end). I watched it this evening at the local cinema. As these sorts of things go, it was actually quite good. Although the final result is never in doubt, it had a sort of Agatha Christie Cleudo attraction in trying to work out which of the people in the drawing room (sorry, passengers) had done it with the lead piping (sorry, bombs and mobile telephones).
There were only two of us in the cinema, the operator and me. The film hasn't done very well in Denmark, I suspect because it is not really very good, and Europeans are not obsessed with security. This is in sharp contrast to the U.S., where they are so obsessed, and where it was a blockbuster, coming in at number one on its opening weekend and staying there for some time. So far the film has grossed close to US$200 million worldwide, against a budget of around US$50 million.
Which shows both that entertainment can be profitable and that in matters of taste and culture, people think differently. Thank goodness.
Walter Blotscher
Thursday 1 May 2014
A EUROPEAN ANNIVERSARY
It is exactly 10 years ago that nine former East European countries and Malta formally joined the E.U. This event has special resonance in Denmark, since the decision was agreed at the Copenhagen summit in December 2002, under the leadership of Prime Minister Anders Fogh Rasmussen. The enlargement was widely approved all over the continent.
How times have changed. Today Europeans - and not just in Denmark - are fed up with the E.U. In particular, they are fed up with what they perceive as somewhat dodgy former East Europeans coming to steal their jobs and/or scrounge welfare benefits. The forthcoming elections to the European Parliament are likely to see big gains for Eurosceptic parties in all Member States.
I was always against the enlargement. I thought that the E.U. should decide what sort of club it wanted to be, and then invite other people to join. This was the so-called "deepening" tactic. However, that was trumped by the "broadening" tactic, in which the priority was new members. Ironically, the broadening tactic was supported most in countries such as the U.K., who saw it as a means of limiting the amount of influence the E.U. could have. What those countries did not foresee was that the new Member States would turn out to be among the most enthusiastic for "more E.U.", and that one vote amongst 25+ (even allowing for the E.U.'s qualified majority voting) had less weight than one amongst 15. The U.K. now want to roll back some of the recent developments, but they are stuck with the fact that the new countries all have a veto.
This year's anniversary looks like being a very sombre affair.
Walter Blotscher
It is exactly 10 years ago that nine former East European countries and Malta formally joined the E.U. This event has special resonance in Denmark, since the decision was agreed at the Copenhagen summit in December 2002, under the leadership of Prime Minister Anders Fogh Rasmussen. The enlargement was widely approved all over the continent.
How times have changed. Today Europeans - and not just in Denmark - are fed up with the E.U. In particular, they are fed up with what they perceive as somewhat dodgy former East Europeans coming to steal their jobs and/or scrounge welfare benefits. The forthcoming elections to the European Parliament are likely to see big gains for Eurosceptic parties in all Member States.
I was always against the enlargement. I thought that the E.U. should decide what sort of club it wanted to be, and then invite other people to join. This was the so-called "deepening" tactic. However, that was trumped by the "broadening" tactic, in which the priority was new members. Ironically, the broadening tactic was supported most in countries such as the U.K., who saw it as a means of limiting the amount of influence the E.U. could have. What those countries did not foresee was that the new Member States would turn out to be among the most enthusiastic for "more E.U.", and that one vote amongst 25+ (even allowing for the E.U.'s qualified majority voting) had less weight than one amongst 15. The U.K. now want to roll back some of the recent developments, but they are stuck with the fact that the new countries all have a veto.
This year's anniversary looks like being a very sombre affair.
Walter Blotscher
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