EGYPT

Two and a bit years ago I said that it was unclear how Egypt would find its way to democracy, or indeed if it ever would. Recent events seem to be proving me right.

Twelve months ago Muhammed Morsi, a former member of the Muslim Brotherhood, was elected President of Egypt with 52% of the vote. As some commentators have noted, this was a higher figure than Barack Obama got last November when he was re-elected as President of the United States. So there is no doubt whatsoever that Mr. Morsi had a democratic mandate. Yet after protests by millions of people on 30 June, the anniversary of his election, the army gave him 48 hours to "meet (their) demands". When he unsurprisingly failed to meet that deadline, the army deposed him in a coup.

Unfortunately, there is also no doubt that during the past year Mr. Morsi has made a hash of the job, not least in economic matters (probably the primary concern of many of those protesters). However, that should not in itself be grounds for forced dismissal. After all, there are plenty of Americans who think that Mr. Obama is making a hash of the economy, but only a few nutters believe that the 101st Airborne should step in and get rid of him. Furthermore, although a sizeable proportion of Egyptians have welcomed the army's re-emergence in politics, there is an equally sizeable proportion who view it with horror. Clashes between the two factions have led to bloodshed, and will probably lead to more.

And that, I suppose, is my point. We in mature democracies advocate (or even impose) it on other countries, but we forget that it takes a long time for it to become embedded. If you take Magna Carta in 1215 as a starting point for the democratic process in the U.K., for example, then 600 years later there were still rotten boroughs, the purchase of positions in the armed forces and civil services, widespread corruption, disenfranchised citizens, notably women, and minorities (both religious and ethnic) who were legally discriminated against. And that was after a lot of violence along the way, including at least two full-blown and long-lasting civil wars. True, things move more quickly in the 21st century, and there are a lot more examples to help guide the path. But the basic concept, namely that you vote for a person or group of people, and - crucially - accept the decision if another person or group of people gets more, is not one that comes easily, or indeed rationally.

The problem with the deposition of Mr. Morsi is that it gives credence to the idea that might can prevail. What is sauce for the goose is sauce for the gander. So those who support him will be tempted to use the same methods to get what they want. We are not yet in a Wars of the Roses situation in Egypt; on the other hand, I would not be surprised if that is where the country ended up.    

Walter Blotscher