UPDATE ON ARAB DEMOCRACY

A year ago, in my first post on this topic, I cautioned against believing that the Arab world would suddenly "tip" to democracy, in the way that Eastern Europe did after the fall of the Berlin Wall. Surveying the region today, I still think that is right.

Tunisia is doing well, and Morocco and Jordan appear to be introducing reforms. Libya and Egypt have got rid of long-standing dictators, as has Yemen (though the details there are unclear). However, in the last three, the next stage of the transition, creating a democratic process, is not going smoothly. Violence is still going on, albeit at a relatively low level.

Elsewhere, Syria is both violent and unreformed, Saudi Arabia has not budged an inch, and the Israeli - Palestinian process is not moving. Sudan is still a mess.

Perhaps the most worrying country is the one that has formally implemented most of the elements of democracy, namely Iraq. Recent developments suggest that with the withdrawal of American military forces, the country could well split into the three ethnic components of Shia Muslims (roughly 60%), Sunni Muslims (20%) and Kurds (20%), in an old-fashioned scrap over oil resources.

It may be that 2012 brings progress on a number of fronts. But I have to say that I doubt it. All in all, I am pessimistic about prospects for the region.

Walter Blotscher