ARAB DEMOCRACY

Are we seeing a tipping point with democracy in the Arab world, a bit like what happened to the communist countries of Eastern Europe? For many years, it seems impossible to imagine that the situation will change. Then, suddenly, cracks appear in the wall, both literally and figuratively. And then it seems impossible to imagine how it used to be.

At a time when Egypt might go one way or the other, I would say no, for two reasons. First, unlike with the Sovet Union under communism, there is no one monolithic force keeping Arab populations repressed. Arab rulers may all be strongmen, if not dictators. But the forces keeping them in power vary hugely from country to country. Some of those strongmen (eg in Tunisia) may be swept away, some may survive. Indeed, the ones that survive are those most likely to adapt. Recent events have given them a huge wake-up call, and there is still time for them to turn that to their own advantage.

Secondly, again unlike events in Eastern Europe, the Western powers (i.e. the United States) are not actively egging on the insurgents from the sidelines. It was clear in 1989 that if communism fell, what replaced it would be welcome to the West. That is not so clear today. In particular, it is not clear that free and fair elections in Arab countries would automatically produce a regime to the West's liking. Moderate, or even radical, Islamists might come to power, and then what?

This concern is reinforced by the politics of one particular Arab country, namely the fledgling Palestinian state. It too is being repressed by a strongman regime, namely Israel; and illegitimately to boot. If Arab populations really got the idea that peaceful mass demonstrations could bring about meaningful change in their political circumstances, then what would that mean for the Israeli-Palestinian peace process? No wonder the Americans are struggling to find the words to describe and influence events in Egypt, and to coax them in the right direction.

Walter Blotscher