ARAB DEMOCRACY (4)

In my last post on this, I said that it was unclear how Egypt would find its way to democracy, if indeed it would. Today's report that the Egyptian army last night had cleared Cairo's Tahrir Square of demonstrators, killing at least one person in the process and injuring many others, seems to confirm my pessimism.

The protesters have moved on from demanding the resignation of President Hosni Mubarak to demanding that he and his family be put on trial for corruption. For the entrenched elite, this is a dangerous development. It is one thing to change the country's figurehead; it's another to hold him to account for his actions. Since if he can be held to account, then so can other members of the former regime.

As in China, the army in Egypt has long had its fingers in many pies, some of which are highly lucrative. President Mubarak has been replaced at the top by the army. If demonstrators push too hard, then they will push back, as they did last night. It is still a very open question whether Egypt manages the transition to democracy.

Walter Blotscher