Tuesday, 8 March 2011

ARAB DEMOCRACY (3)

In my earlier post on events in the Arab world, I said that I didn't think that things would pan out in the same way as they had in Eastern Europe at the end of the 1980's.

That hunch seems to have been correct. Although both Tunisia's and Egypt's Presidents have been forced out of office, it is still unclear how the two countries will find their way to democracy, if indeed they will. While in Libya, a full-scale civil war appears to be breaking out between the western half of the country, controlled by Colonel Muammar Gaddafi from Tripoli, and the eastern half, which has fallen to people who started out as demonstrators, but who are now fully-fledged rebels. With the rest of the world looking on from the sidelines, with or without a mooted no-fly zone, the outcome of that fight is far from certain.

Two months on, I am still not optimistic that the Arab world - in general - will become democratic any time soon.

Walter Blotscher 
Posted by Walter Blotscher at 13:16

4 comments:

  1. Michael8 March 2011 at 22:47

    There is a tone, from Walter and other orinarily liberal bloggers that suggest that democracy in the western sense is not feasible or appropriate for Arabs. They have to choose between Islam and dictators and chaos.

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  2. Walter Blotscher9 March 2011 at 09:14

    Hi Michael,

    Not in my case. My basic point is that there are considerable local forces in the various countries, who (for whatever reason) don't want it, and who - crucially - will fight hard to prevent it. It is certainly possible that I turn out to be wrong, but my hunch is that these reactionary forces are in many places stronger than those of the would-be reformers. Partly because the reformers lack institutions and structures to channel those reforming wishes, and partly because outsiders are reluctant to support the reformers wholeheartedly. These are the big differences from what happened in Eastern Europe.

    So, not possible rather than not appropriate.

    Regards,

    Walter

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  3. Michael9 March 2011 at 09:53

    It seems to me that Egypt does have the institutions. At least I have been persuaded so by my acquaintance who consider themselves Egypt experts.

    Of course we are at the pessimistic stage of life so support pessimistic conclusions.

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  4. Walter Blotscher9 March 2011 at 11:17

    Hi Michael,

    Maybe Egypt does; though I would say that it is not by any means 100% clear that it does.

    However, Egypt is only one Arab country, though perhaps the most important one. Taking the Arab world as a whole, I am pessimistic.

    Regards,

    Walter

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