BARACK OBAMA AT HALFWAY

Barack Obama was propelled into office two years ago with such ridiculously high expectations, that he was bound to disappoint. What was unclear until today was how big that disappointment would be. With the results of the mid-term elections in, we now know the answer; very big.

The Democrats got a drubbing. The Republicans gained more than 60 seats in the House of Representatives, giving them control of the House and the Speakership. They also won seats in the Senate, though not enough to gain a majority. Perhaps the most alarming defeats for the Democrats were in the races for state governors, where they lost around a dozen, and state legislatures, where the Republicans now control more seats than they have since 1928. These results matter, since the new state legislatures will have the task of drawing up electoral boundary changes based on the 2010 census, thereby making it possible to entrench Republican gains.

Not all of this is the President's fault. He was dealt a terrible hand, with two full-on wars and the worst economic recession since the 1930's. On both fronts, he has made progress, ending the fighting in Iraq, getting a stimulus package passed, rescuing General Motors, and saving the financial system. He has also managed to enact changes to the ridiculously expensive U.S. healthcare system. However, the amount of progress has not been enough, not least because unemployment has remained stubbornly high. Furthermore, perceptions have turned against him. Where he was seen as cerebral and refreshingly non-partisan in 2008, he now looks to be aloof and uncaring in 2010. Both perceptions are probably wrong, or at least too one-dimensional, but that is how it plays out in the public mind. Politics can be a cruel business.

Using the remaining half of his term of office to make major changes will be difficult. The Republican House will try to dismantle what he has already achieved (notably on healthcare), the Senate will block those attempts, and the President can veto the few that manage to get through the defences. That doesn't look like constructive politics, but the alternative of "consensus across the middle" looks likely to be a pipe dream. As one Tea Party Republican put it, legislative gridlock may be unattractive, but at least it is an improvement on President Obama's policies. I suspect he means it.

All of which makes the title of this blog more than just a possibility; maybe Barack Obama will be just a one-term President. True, there is a long way to go before 2012. The Republicans may believe their own rhetoric and choose a nutcase candidate - Sarah Palin springs to mind -, or something awful may happen that causes the nation to rally round the President. However, the chances are that one of those new Republican governors will do something brilliant enough in their home state that it can be used as a springboard for a party nomination and a serious run for the Presidency. Barack Obama is not yet history; but he has got a fight on his hands if he is to get a second term in his country's highest office.

Walter Blotscher