CHRISTMAS PRESENTS
I got some good Christmas presents this year. Top of the list, from my children, was a new espresso coffee machine to replace the old one that got broken. It has gone straight into use, and I am in fact drinking a very nice cup of coffee from it as I write this.
My wife gave me a Kansas work overall and some new clogs; apparently my work clothes make me look like a tramp. Clogs are in many ways completely naff. But they are also very useful for working when you have to go in and out of the house all of the time, and put shoes on and take them off. No fiddly laces or any such. Adding to the "building work in the barn" theme, I got a brick hammer from my mother-in-law. I think that's what it is called in English, it is one of those curved contraptions that you use to chop bricks in half, or clean off the mortar from old ones. My existing brick hammer is so worn down that I have to work twice as hard as necessary.
My wife also gave me a gardening book. Having cut down large parts of our property, old hedges, fallen trees, and masses of weeds, I am now anxious to build things up again. This will tell me how to do it.
I am now off to my mother-in-law's for the great Boxing Day family lunch. Then tomorrow we travel to Blair Atholl in Scotland for a week to celebrate New Year with friends. I can't believe that there will be an internet connection in the Scottish highlands, so this is the last blog for 2010. Back on 3 January with goals for the year.
Happy New Year to all!
Walter Blotscher
Sunday, 26 December 2010
Saturday, 25 December 2010
2010
Since the main event is on Christmas Eve, Christmas Day in Denmark is a day for sleeping in late, sitting around in your pyjamas and generally not doing very much. We go for a walk en famille in the afternoon, but otherwise don't manage very much. Leftover turkey and ris à l'amande is available for sustenance, prior to the big family get-together tomorrow at my mother-in-law's. My wife is one of five sisters, and they all have two or more children; so there will be 20 or so of us around the table.
It is still very cold here, and there are big snowdrifts around the house. We had a bit of a panic, taking my mother-in-law home last night, since the road out of our cul-de-sac was impassible. Fortunately, I have two big lads who think they are pretty strong, so some sustained pushing and digging got us out. A snowplough came round this morning, so it shouldn't be a problem from now on.
Looking back on the year that has nearly gone, it seems to have been dominated by various themes. Top of the list - well, in my view - is this blog, a new development for me. Thanks to all who have read it, whatever they may have thought of it. A particular thanks to my regular commentators, Michael and Joachim, I hope they haven't frightened others away. My goal for 2011 is to put more bells and whistles on the blog, if I can work out the IT- issues involved.
The second theme has been that of financial crisis. My personal view is that this is a misnomer; the financial crisis was long ago, and we in the rich, Western world are in the middle of a real economic crisis. The hubris of the noughties, with all the twaddle of the end of boom and bust, never-ending growth and prosperity, and (in particular) the unbelievable cleverness of financial institutions, has been exposed as just that, namely hubris. Instead we have the realisation that societies' commitments (on pensions and healthcare) to their citizens are unsustainable, that paper profits are paper rather than profit, that it is likely that millions of people will be unemployed - and perhaps unemployable - for many years to come. Getting out of this trough will be a long, hard slog. Whatever politicians may say - and the only certainty is that they will say a lot, much of it guff - it will not be easy.
The third theme is the continuing presence of war. That presence may be muted, but it is still very much a reality, as this morning's suicide bomb in Pakistan makes very clear. Foreign forces may be out of Iraq, but a country that needs more than 8 months after an election just to form a Government on paper does not inspire confidence. Meanwhile, the drip drip of casualties from Afghanistan continues. I think that all political leaders know, in their heart of hearts, that this is not a conflict that they can win, not least because it is not winnable. They are positioning themselves for withdrawal, at minimum embarassment, under the cover of "handing over to local security forces". Shades of Vietnam towards the end.
The fourth theme is the emergence of Wikileaks and the threat to governments that it represents. Whatever the rights and wrongs of Wikileaks' specific actions, I believe that the organisation fills a gap caused by the absence of normal checks and balances. While the world's powers were going to war in Iraq and Afghanistan, legislators were quietly acquiescing in "discovering" weapons of mass destruction, building duck houses at taxpayers' expense and other egregious things; anything, it seems, but doing what they are supposed to do, namely hold the executive to account.
The fifth theme is the resilience of Nature, and its power to wreak destruction. Floods in Pakistan, volcanos in Iceland, earthquakes and hurricanes in Haiti, freezing weather in Europe. Despite our undoubted technology, we are powerless in the face of such forces.
Since many of these themes will continue into the future, I am not particularly optimistic about 2011. However, we should also remember a year of great sport. The Winter Olympics, the World Cup, the world ice hockey championships, a resurgent Roger Federer, the Ashes in Australia. Just when I was beginning to get a bit down, sport- as always - cheers me up again.
Walter Blotscher
Since the main event is on Christmas Eve, Christmas Day in Denmark is a day for sleeping in late, sitting around in your pyjamas and generally not doing very much. We go for a walk en famille in the afternoon, but otherwise don't manage very much. Leftover turkey and ris à l'amande is available for sustenance, prior to the big family get-together tomorrow at my mother-in-law's. My wife is one of five sisters, and they all have two or more children; so there will be 20 or so of us around the table.
It is still very cold here, and there are big snowdrifts around the house. We had a bit of a panic, taking my mother-in-law home last night, since the road out of our cul-de-sac was impassible. Fortunately, I have two big lads who think they are pretty strong, so some sustained pushing and digging got us out. A snowplough came round this morning, so it shouldn't be a problem from now on.
Looking back on the year that has nearly gone, it seems to have been dominated by various themes. Top of the list - well, in my view - is this blog, a new development for me. Thanks to all who have read it, whatever they may have thought of it. A particular thanks to my regular commentators, Michael and Joachim, I hope they haven't frightened others away. My goal for 2011 is to put more bells and whistles on the blog, if I can work out the IT- issues involved.
The second theme has been that of financial crisis. My personal view is that this is a misnomer; the financial crisis was long ago, and we in the rich, Western world are in the middle of a real economic crisis. The hubris of the noughties, with all the twaddle of the end of boom and bust, never-ending growth and prosperity, and (in particular) the unbelievable cleverness of financial institutions, has been exposed as just that, namely hubris. Instead we have the realisation that societies' commitments (on pensions and healthcare) to their citizens are unsustainable, that paper profits are paper rather than profit, that it is likely that millions of people will be unemployed - and perhaps unemployable - for many years to come. Getting out of this trough will be a long, hard slog. Whatever politicians may say - and the only certainty is that they will say a lot, much of it guff - it will not be easy.
The third theme is the continuing presence of war. That presence may be muted, but it is still very much a reality, as this morning's suicide bomb in Pakistan makes very clear. Foreign forces may be out of Iraq, but a country that needs more than 8 months after an election just to form a Government on paper does not inspire confidence. Meanwhile, the drip drip of casualties from Afghanistan continues. I think that all political leaders know, in their heart of hearts, that this is not a conflict that they can win, not least because it is not winnable. They are positioning themselves for withdrawal, at minimum embarassment, under the cover of "handing over to local security forces". Shades of Vietnam towards the end.
The fourth theme is the emergence of Wikileaks and the threat to governments that it represents. Whatever the rights and wrongs of Wikileaks' specific actions, I believe that the organisation fills a gap caused by the absence of normal checks and balances. While the world's powers were going to war in Iraq and Afghanistan, legislators were quietly acquiescing in "discovering" weapons of mass destruction, building duck houses at taxpayers' expense and other egregious things; anything, it seems, but doing what they are supposed to do, namely hold the executive to account.
The fifth theme is the resilience of Nature, and its power to wreak destruction. Floods in Pakistan, volcanos in Iceland, earthquakes and hurricanes in Haiti, freezing weather in Europe. Despite our undoubted technology, we are powerless in the face of such forces.
Since many of these themes will continue into the future, I am not particularly optimistic about 2011. However, we should also remember a year of great sport. The Winter Olympics, the World Cup, the world ice hockey championships, a resurgent Roger Federer, the Ashes in Australia. Just when I was beginning to get a bit down, sport- as always - cheers me up again.
Walter Blotscher
Friday, 24 December 2010
CHRISTMAS
The evening of Christmas Eve, rather than Christmas Day itself, is the big event in Scandinavia. I am sitting here, writing this while the rest of the family are in church at 4.00pm. It is me, who has to get dinner ready for the start of things at 6.00pm.
As a multinational family, we have always followed our own, slightly different, Christmas traditions. For a start, we have turkey; whereas most Danes eat duck, goose, or roast pork. That decision goes all the way back to our first Christmasses in Tanzania when the boys were very small, and when we managed to get hold of a turkey. I can still remember being surprised, after the plucked and dressed bird turned up at our house in Dar es Salaam in a rather battered cardboard box, having survived the 1,300km journey in broiling heat by rail from Mwanza on Lake Victoria. An elderly but rather eccentric German lady, who had built a wonderful house on the lake, kept a flock of turkeys; and a man I knew up there arranged for us to have one sent down each December. It always arrived.
It is me who cooks the turkey. We have sage and onion stuffing, bacon on the top, roast potatoes and brussels sprouts (another anglo-oddity; Danes have red cabbage). Plus caramelised boiled potatoes, prepared by my mother-in-law, and mashed celeriac in cream with pine kernels. I don't know where the latter came from, since I am not a great fan of root vegetables, but was something introduced some years ago by my wife; it has sort of stuck. And bread sauce and gravy. That's why I am not going to church. Bread sauce should be cooked long and slowly, with lots of stirring so that it doesn't burn. I'll start when I finish this.
For dessert we have the traditional Danish fare of ris à l'amande, a chilled rice pudding dish mixed with cream and almonds, that is served with hot cherry sauce. It's delicious. There is always a whole almond in it somewhere, and the person who finds it gets the almond present. My mother used to do the same with sixpences wrapped in silver foil in the Christmas pudding when I was a boy.
After dinner, the Christmas tree is lit with lots of candles, and there is singing round it. Then it's present time, washed down with coffee, Christmas sweets and biscuits, and special Christmas beer (the sitting room gets very hot, what with the wood-burning stove and the candles). Then off to bed in the early hours.
There will be seven of us for dinner, my family, plus my mother-in-law and one of my sisters-in-law, who is divorced and doesn't have the children this year. It will be "hyggeligt", as it always is.
Have a great Christmas, today or tomorrow. Now for that bread sauce ....
Walter Blotscher
The evening of Christmas Eve, rather than Christmas Day itself, is the big event in Scandinavia. I am sitting here, writing this while the rest of the family are in church at 4.00pm. It is me, who has to get dinner ready for the start of things at 6.00pm.
As a multinational family, we have always followed our own, slightly different, Christmas traditions. For a start, we have turkey; whereas most Danes eat duck, goose, or roast pork. That decision goes all the way back to our first Christmasses in Tanzania when the boys were very small, and when we managed to get hold of a turkey. I can still remember being surprised, after the plucked and dressed bird turned up at our house in Dar es Salaam in a rather battered cardboard box, having survived the 1,300km journey in broiling heat by rail from Mwanza on Lake Victoria. An elderly but rather eccentric German lady, who had built a wonderful house on the lake, kept a flock of turkeys; and a man I knew up there arranged for us to have one sent down each December. It always arrived.
It is me who cooks the turkey. We have sage and onion stuffing, bacon on the top, roast potatoes and brussels sprouts (another anglo-oddity; Danes have red cabbage). Plus caramelised boiled potatoes, prepared by my mother-in-law, and mashed celeriac in cream with pine kernels. I don't know where the latter came from, since I am not a great fan of root vegetables, but was something introduced some years ago by my wife; it has sort of stuck. And bread sauce and gravy. That's why I am not going to church. Bread sauce should be cooked long and slowly, with lots of stirring so that it doesn't burn. I'll start when I finish this.
For dessert we have the traditional Danish fare of ris à l'amande, a chilled rice pudding dish mixed with cream and almonds, that is served with hot cherry sauce. It's delicious. There is always a whole almond in it somewhere, and the person who finds it gets the almond present. My mother used to do the same with sixpences wrapped in silver foil in the Christmas pudding when I was a boy.
After dinner, the Christmas tree is lit with lots of candles, and there is singing round it. Then it's present time, washed down with coffee, Christmas sweets and biscuits, and special Christmas beer (the sitting room gets very hot, what with the wood-burning stove and the candles). Then off to bed in the early hours.
There will be seven of us for dinner, my family, plus my mother-in-law and one of my sisters-in-law, who is divorced and doesn't have the children this year. It will be "hyggeligt", as it always is.
Have a great Christmas, today or tomorrow. Now for that bread sauce ....
Walter Blotscher
Thursday, 23 December 2010
DON'T ASK, DON'T TELL
Congress is to be admired for ending the so-called "don't ask, don't tell" policy, whereby openly gay people were not allowed to serve in the U.S. military. Since it was introduced in 1993, more than 13,000 people have been discharged because of their sexuality.
I have personally never understood why a person's sexuality makes a difference, when it comes to having to kill an enemy. However, plenty of people obviously disagreed. The original law was a compromise, which Bill Clinton had to accept, after it became clear that he could not fulfil his campaign promise of allowing openly gay people to serve in the armed forces.
Some Republicans voted against the repeal, though not enough to block it. There are aways some diehards; but it is good to see that they are fewer and fewer.
Walter Blotscher
Congress is to be admired for ending the so-called "don't ask, don't tell" policy, whereby openly gay people were not allowed to serve in the U.S. military. Since it was introduced in 1993, more than 13,000 people have been discharged because of their sexuality.
I have personally never understood why a person's sexuality makes a difference, when it comes to having to kill an enemy. However, plenty of people obviously disagreed. The original law was a compromise, which Bill Clinton had to accept, after it became clear that he could not fulfil his campaign promise of allowing openly gay people to serve in the armed forces.
Some Republicans voted against the repeal, though not enough to block it. There are aways some diehards; but it is good to see that they are fewer and fewer.
Walter Blotscher
Wednesday, 22 December 2010
FROZEN PIPES
Our water pipes froze last night. Not everywhere, thank goodness. The main line lies deep underground, and comes into our boiler room. From there the pipes go down and into the various parts of the house. For the kitchen sink, that means through the cellar, and it was there (underneath the windows to the right of the front door) that they froze. Which was a real pain, since it also took the dishwasher out of action.
Getting professional people out to l
ook at such things is hideously expensive, particularly around Christmas time. Fortunately, however, my mother-in-law's neighbour has a useful electric hand tool, which acts as a sort of mini blowtorch. You point it at the frozen part of the pipe, and try to ensure that the water thaws before the plastic pipe melts. After half an hour or so of unsophisticated hair-drying, we were back to flowing water.
But with temperatures plummeting to minus 20 degrees these days, something else had to be done. So I went up to the local builder's merchant and bought a whole load of spongey pipes. You wrap these ingenious things around the water pipes and they keep them insulated. That should keep us going until the end of winter, whenever that is.
Walter Blotscher
Our water pipes froze last night. Not everywhere, thank goodness. The main line lies deep underground, and comes into our boiler room. From there the pipes go down and into the various parts of the house. For the kitchen sink, that means through the cellar, and it was there (underneath the windows to the right of the front door) that they froze. Which was a real pain, since it also took the dishwasher out of action.
Getting professional people out to l
ook at such things is hideously expensive, particularly around Christmas time. Fortunately, however, my mother-in-law's neighbour has a useful electric hand tool, which acts as a sort of mini blowtorch. You point it at the frozen part of the pipe, and try to ensure that the water thaws before the plastic pipe melts. After half an hour or so of unsophisticated hair-drying, we were back to flowing water.But with temperatures plummeting to minus 20 degrees these days, something else had to be done. So I went up to the local builder's merchant and bought a whole load of spongey pipes. You wrap these ingenious things around the water pipes and they keep them insulated. That should keep us going until the end of winter, whenever that is.
Walter Blotscher
Tuesday, 21 December 2010
AIRPORT CHAOS
Everybody knows that there is bad weather in Europe at the moment. But why are some airports harder hit than others? Why, in particular, is Britain's Heathrow Airport hit worst of all? Hit, it certainly is. Thousands of stranded passengers are camping out in the terminals, desperate to get home for Christmas. But with a reduced timetable up to, and including, Christmas Eve, it is quite possible that many won't make it.
But I ask again, why is Heathrow hit worst? After all, it is not as if the U.K. is the coldest place in Europe, or has the most snow. Why don't we ever hear about Helsinki Airport closing or Stockholm? The last time Helsinki Airport had to close because of the weather was in 2003; and that was for just half an hour. Stockholm Airport has never closed because of snow.
I think that in the end, it all comes down to organisation and management. Heathrow is the busiest airport in Europe, yet it has always been badly situated and badly run. Up until a couple of years ago, it was one of the few major airports in Europe with no direct overground rail access. Even now, with 66 million passengers in 2009, it still only has two runways; Helsinki, by contrast, has three, which means that two can remain open while the third is being cleared of snow, if necessary.
I am not at all underestimating how difficult it is to manage an airport which lies pretty much within one of the largest conurbations in the world. But it is not as if it is a new problem; and Governments of all political complexions have tried to address it. They just haven't done a very good job.
Walter Blotscher
Everybody knows that there is bad weather in Europe at the moment. But why are some airports harder hit than others? Why, in particular, is Britain's Heathrow Airport hit worst of all? Hit, it certainly is. Thousands of stranded passengers are camping out in the terminals, desperate to get home for Christmas. But with a reduced timetable up to, and including, Christmas Eve, it is quite possible that many won't make it.
But I ask again, why is Heathrow hit worst? After all, it is not as if the U.K. is the coldest place in Europe, or has the most snow. Why don't we ever hear about Helsinki Airport closing or Stockholm? The last time Helsinki Airport had to close because of the weather was in 2003; and that was for just half an hour. Stockholm Airport has never closed because of snow.
I think that in the end, it all comes down to organisation and management. Heathrow is the busiest airport in Europe, yet it has always been badly situated and badly run. Up until a couple of years ago, it was one of the few major airports in Europe with no direct overground rail access. Even now, with 66 million passengers in 2009, it still only has two runways; Helsinki, by contrast, has three, which means that two can remain open while the third is being cleared of snow, if necessary.
I am not at all underestimating how difficult it is to manage an airport which lies pretty much within one of the largest conurbations in the world. But it is not as if it is a new problem; and Governments of all political complexions have tried to address it. They just haven't done a very good job.
Walter Blotscher
Monday, 20 December 2010
AGEING IN JAPAN (AND ELSEWHERE)
I have just got around to reading the Economist's 20 November survey on ageing in Japan. It is sobering.
Japan's working age population, that between 15 and 64, was 50 million in 1950, and rose steadily to a peak of 87 million in 1996. Since then it has been in decline, and is expected to fall to 50 million again around 2050. However, whereas workers in 1950 were supporting a relatively small number of dependants (old and young), this will no longer be true in 2050. When public pensions were first introduced in the 1960's, there were 11 workers for every pensioner; now there are only 2.6. The ratio is likely to worsen further in the future because of the country's extremely low birth rate, at 1.4 the second lowest in the rich world after South Korea. Put this all together and Japan represents the fastest-ageing society on Earth. In the next 40 years, its current population of 127 million will fall to under 90 million; in 2050, a staggering 40% of all Japanese will be over 65.
Increased productivity can help offset this demographic monster; after all, virtually everybody in the world is more productive in 2010 than they were in 1950. However, this can only go so far, and is unlikely to make up for the shortfall as workers hit retirement age. Besides, if Japanese women are not having babies - and they are not - then no amount of productivity gains can help; there are simply not enough workers around that can be productive.
Japan's demographic bell-curve is an extreme example of rich-world ageing. Britain's and France's population, for example, are both expected to continue to grow during the next 40 years; though Germany has a similar, if milder, problem to that of Japan, and its population has already started to shrink (the U.K. is forecast to overtake it as the most populous country in Europe by 2050). And the U.S. is protected by the steady number of people who manage, either legally or illegally, to enter and participate in its economy.
Nevertheless, Japan acts as a warning to the problems, which will inevitably occur in rich societies. Pension and healthcare promises are, quite simply, unsustainable at current levels. Basically, there are four options for dealing with this; increased productivity, working longer, saving more (through either saving directly or higher taxes) or importing labour (i.e. immigration). Since the last of these is, for a variety of reasons, not possible, at least in the amounts needed to solve the problem, and since productivity increases are, in general, outside Governments' control, policy changes will have to come from a combination of the second and third. In particular, the pension age will rise, forcing people to work longer, and pension contributions as a proportion of salary will also rise.
This will create tensions within societies, as people who have to pay for solving the problem clash with people who believe that they have earned rights in the past. Those clashes may be figurative; but they may also be literal (as recent footage in Greece and France has shown). The groups on one side or the other may also be fluid. One of the interesting facets of the French demonstrations against the raising of the pension age from 60 to 62 was the large number of young people involved. As potential payers of 60-year old retirees, you would have thought that they would support a higher retirement age, which reduced their obligations. However, what seems to have been more at the forefront of their minds was that they felt that they were unlikely to get a job unless and until those 60-year olds shuffled off into retirement and opened the way for them.
These problems will not be easy to solve. But they are crucial for the future of the rich world. Those countries that manage things best will be the world's leaders in 2050.
Walter Blotscher
I have just got around to reading the Economist's 20 November survey on ageing in Japan. It is sobering.
Japan's working age population, that between 15 and 64, was 50 million in 1950, and rose steadily to a peak of 87 million in 1996. Since then it has been in decline, and is expected to fall to 50 million again around 2050. However, whereas workers in 1950 were supporting a relatively small number of dependants (old and young), this will no longer be true in 2050. When public pensions were first introduced in the 1960's, there were 11 workers for every pensioner; now there are only 2.6. The ratio is likely to worsen further in the future because of the country's extremely low birth rate, at 1.4 the second lowest in the rich world after South Korea. Put this all together and Japan represents the fastest-ageing society on Earth. In the next 40 years, its current population of 127 million will fall to under 90 million; in 2050, a staggering 40% of all Japanese will be over 65.
Increased productivity can help offset this demographic monster; after all, virtually everybody in the world is more productive in 2010 than they were in 1950. However, this can only go so far, and is unlikely to make up for the shortfall as workers hit retirement age. Besides, if Japanese women are not having babies - and they are not - then no amount of productivity gains can help; there are simply not enough workers around that can be productive.
Japan's demographic bell-curve is an extreme example of rich-world ageing. Britain's and France's population, for example, are both expected to continue to grow during the next 40 years; though Germany has a similar, if milder, problem to that of Japan, and its population has already started to shrink (the U.K. is forecast to overtake it as the most populous country in Europe by 2050). And the U.S. is protected by the steady number of people who manage, either legally or illegally, to enter and participate in its economy.
Nevertheless, Japan acts as a warning to the problems, which will inevitably occur in rich societies. Pension and healthcare promises are, quite simply, unsustainable at current levels. Basically, there are four options for dealing with this; increased productivity, working longer, saving more (through either saving directly or higher taxes) or importing labour (i.e. immigration). Since the last of these is, for a variety of reasons, not possible, at least in the amounts needed to solve the problem, and since productivity increases are, in general, outside Governments' control, policy changes will have to come from a combination of the second and third. In particular, the pension age will rise, forcing people to work longer, and pension contributions as a proportion of salary will also rise.
This will create tensions within societies, as people who have to pay for solving the problem clash with people who believe that they have earned rights in the past. Those clashes may be figurative; but they may also be literal (as recent footage in Greece and France has shown). The groups on one side or the other may also be fluid. One of the interesting facets of the French demonstrations against the raising of the pension age from 60 to 62 was the large number of young people involved. As potential payers of 60-year old retirees, you would have thought that they would support a higher retirement age, which reduced their obligations. However, what seems to have been more at the forefront of their minds was that they felt that they were unlikely to get a job unless and until those 60-year olds shuffled off into retirement and opened the way for them.
These problems will not be easy to solve. But they are crucial for the future of the rich world. Those countries that manage things best will be the world's leaders in 2050.
Walter Blotscher
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