2010

Since the main event is on Christmas Eve, Christmas Day in Denmark is a day for sleeping in late, sitting around in your pyjamas and generally not doing very much. We go for a walk en famille in the afternoon, but otherwise don't manage very much. Leftover turkey and ris à l'amande is available for sustenance, prior to the big family get-together tomorrow at my mother-in-law's. My wife is one of five sisters, and they all have two or more children; so there will be 20 or so of us around the table.

It is still very cold here, and there are big snowdrifts around the house. We had a bit of a panic, taking my mother-in-law home last night, since the road out of our cul-de-sac was impassible. Fortunately, I have two big lads who think they are pretty strong, so some sustained pushing and digging got us out. A snowplough came round this morning, so it shouldn't be a problem from now on.

Looking back on the year that has nearly gone, it seems to have been dominated by various themes. Top of the list - well, in my view - is this blog, a new development for me. Thanks to all who have read it, whatever they may have thought of it. A particular thanks to my regular commentators, Michael and Joachim, I hope they haven't frightened others away. My goal for 2011 is to put more bells and whistles on the blog, if I can work out the IT- issues involved.

The second theme has been that of financial crisis. My personal view is that this is a misnomer; the financial crisis was long ago, and we in the rich, Western world are in the middle of a real economic crisis. The hubris of the noughties, with all the twaddle of the end of boom and bust, never-ending growth and prosperity, and (in particular) the unbelievable cleverness of financial institutions, has been exposed as just that, namely hubris. Instead we have the realisation that societies' commitments (on pensions and healthcare) to their citizens are unsustainable, that paper profits are paper rather than profit, that it is likely that millions of people will be unemployed - and perhaps unemployable - for many years to come. Getting out of this trough will be a long, hard slog. Whatever politicians may say - and the only certainty is that they will say a lot, much of it guff - it will not be easy.

The third theme is the continuing presence of war. That presence may be muted, but it is still very much a reality, as this morning's suicide bomb in Pakistan makes very clear. Foreign forces may be out of Iraq, but a country that needs more than 8 months after an election just to form a Government on paper does not inspire confidence. Meanwhile, the drip drip of casualties from Afghanistan continues. I think that all political leaders know, in their heart of hearts, that this is not a conflict that they can win, not least because it is not winnable. They are positioning themselves for withdrawal, at minimum embarassment, under the cover of "handing over to local security forces". Shades of Vietnam towards the end.

The fourth theme is the emergence of Wikileaks and the threat to governments that it represents. Whatever the rights and wrongs of Wikileaks' specific actions, I believe that the organisation fills a gap caused by the absence of normal checks and balances. While the world's powers were going to war in Iraq and Afghanistan, legislators were quietly acquiescing in "discovering" weapons of mass destruction, building duck houses at taxpayers' expense and other egregious things; anything, it seems, but doing what they are supposed to do, namely hold the executive to account.

The fifth theme is the resilience of Nature, and its power to wreak destruction. Floods in Pakistan, volcanos in Iceland, earthquakes and hurricanes in Haiti, freezing weather in Europe. Despite our undoubted technology, we are powerless in the face of such forces.

Since many of these themes will continue into the future, I am not particularly optimistic about 2011. However, we should also remember a year of great sport. The Winter Olympics, the World Cup, the world ice hockey championships, a resurgent Roger Federer, the Ashes in Australia. Just when I was beginning to get a bit down, sport- as always - cheers me up again.

Walter Blotscher