HISTORICAL ACCURACY (2)
DR's historical drama about 1864 finished this evening, so it is time for a judgment. Not about the historical accuracy (that one will run for a while), but whether it's any good as television drama.
Not very, is my view. The man who both wrote the script and directed the series was given far too much money and (even worse) far too much slack. The formula which has served DR Drama so well in recent years (a main writer supplemented by episode writers) collapsed when the director fired the episode writers. The result is one man's work, and he messed up.
Walter Blotscher
Sunday 30 November 2014
Saturday 29 November 2014
SQUASH (2)
This post is about squash the racket sport, not squash the vegetable. Today I played it for the first time in about 12 years. Squash is not very popular in Denmark, where badminton is king. But I know someone who is keen on it, and he asked me to play a game, even though we had to drive to Odense, which is about 30km away.
After learning to play in my late teens, I played squash for about 20 years as my main form of exercise. In Tanzania, it was regularly three times a week. Yet since I came to Denmark in 2000, I have played just once.
Tonight I am both knackered and sore in the whole of my upper body. It's amazing how you can get out of the habit of something. My positioning was poor, I didn't watch the ball enough (in badminton, it's always coming from in front of you, whereas in squash, it is often coming from behind you), and I had no power or timing. Worst of all, I tweaked a muscle in the back of my thigh when lunging for a forehand down the line.
Still, I loved it. I had to work a lot harder than in any badminton game, and that can only be good.
Walter Blotscher
This post is about squash the racket sport, not squash the vegetable. Today I played it for the first time in about 12 years. Squash is not very popular in Denmark, where badminton is king. But I know someone who is keen on it, and he asked me to play a game, even though we had to drive to Odense, which is about 30km away.
After learning to play in my late teens, I played squash for about 20 years as my main form of exercise. In Tanzania, it was regularly three times a week. Yet since I came to Denmark in 2000, I have played just once.
Tonight I am both knackered and sore in the whole of my upper body. It's amazing how you can get out of the habit of something. My positioning was poor, I didn't watch the ball enough (in badminton, it's always coming from in front of you, whereas in squash, it is often coming from behind you), and I had no power or timing. Worst of all, I tweaked a muscle in the back of my thigh when lunging for a forehand down the line.
Still, I loved it. I had to work a lot harder than in any badminton game, and that can only be good.
Walter Blotscher
Friday 28 November 2014
U.K. IMMIGRATION (3)
David Cameron has finally admitted that the aim (stated in the Conservative Party manifesto of 2010) of reducing net immigration from 252,000 in 2010 to the "tens of thousands" in 2015 will not be met. That is a sensible admission; provisional figures for the year to June show that net migration was 260,000! And it shows no sign of coming down.
Given the threat of UKIP, which (having won two by-elections) now has two MP's in Parliament and is likely to win more at next year's general election, Mr. Cameron has changed tack. In a major speech today, he outlined plans for curbing E.U. migrants' rights to in-work benefits (eg tax credits), social housing and child benefit (for children still living back home) until they have been in the U.K. for four years. The idea behind the policy is that by reducing the financial benefits of being in the U.K., people will not come.
I don't believe in that underlying idea. But even if I did, there are considerable problems with Mr. Cameron's proposals, and not just that he will have to win that election if they are going to become official Government policy. The bigger difficulty is that they would require changes to the treaties underpinning the European Union, over which all of the other 27 Member States have a veto. Why wouldn't one of them (Poland, for example) not exercise that veto?
Britain is fast boxing itself into a corner with respect to immigration and E.U. matters from which it will be very difficult to escape. Meanwhile, net migration will continue to be high, however much Mr. Cameron huffs and puffs.
Walter Blotscher
David Cameron has finally admitted that the aim (stated in the Conservative Party manifesto of 2010) of reducing net immigration from 252,000 in 2010 to the "tens of thousands" in 2015 will not be met. That is a sensible admission; provisional figures for the year to June show that net migration was 260,000! And it shows no sign of coming down.
Given the threat of UKIP, which (having won two by-elections) now has two MP's in Parliament and is likely to win more at next year's general election, Mr. Cameron has changed tack. In a major speech today, he outlined plans for curbing E.U. migrants' rights to in-work benefits (eg tax credits), social housing and child benefit (for children still living back home) until they have been in the U.K. for four years. The idea behind the policy is that by reducing the financial benefits of being in the U.K., people will not come.
I don't believe in that underlying idea. But even if I did, there are considerable problems with Mr. Cameron's proposals, and not just that he will have to win that election if they are going to become official Government policy. The bigger difficulty is that they would require changes to the treaties underpinning the European Union, over which all of the other 27 Member States have a veto. Why wouldn't one of them (Poland, for example) not exercise that veto?
Britain is fast boxing itself into a corner with respect to immigration and E.U. matters from which it will be very difficult to escape. Meanwhile, net migration will continue to be high, however much Mr. Cameron huffs and puffs.
Walter Blotscher
Thursday 27 November 2014
A HELPING HAND
I would like to think of myself as someone who gives a helping hand. But I am not sure I would have done what some Siberian oil workers did. Their plane got stuck on the runway when temperatures fell to -52C, and the brake pads on the aircraft froze. So they got out of the plane and gave it a push.
It was probably not good aviation practice to do that. But the threat of being stuck in Siberia in those temperatures must have been a powerful incentive.
Walter Blotscher
I would like to think of myself as someone who gives a helping hand. But I am not sure I would have done what some Siberian oil workers did. Their plane got stuck on the runway when temperatures fell to -52C, and the brake pads on the aircraft froze. So they got out of the plane and gave it a push.
It was probably not good aviation practice to do that. But the threat of being stuck in Siberia in those temperatures must have been a powerful incentive.
Walter Blotscher
Wednesday 26 November 2014
MILK
Milk is one of those products that we tend to take for granted. We drink at least some every day, it doesn't cost much, and it's probably only when we don't have any in the fridge that we give it more than a passing thought. Yet the milk market is a market like any other, and it is currently going through a bit of an upheaval.
In Denmark, when you talk of milk, then you talk of Arla; the dairy giant has a huge share of the domestic market and is big in other countries such as the U.K. It also has a slightly unusual share structure for a big company, since it is owned by the farmers who supply it with its raw material.
Those farmers are hurting at the moment, since the price Arla pays them has fallen from kr.3.14 a litre in April to kr.2.41 today. That has reduced turnover for the average dairy farm by kr.88,000 (around £9,000) a month. Since they were barely making money at the higher price, it means that many farmers are under water, and could well go bust this winter.
Nor is this phenomenon confined to Denmark. The Global Dairy Trade index stands today at around 750, what it was at the beginning of the noughties, having been up over 1,600 in the middle of the decade and also a year ago. A major reason for the fall in prices this year has been the withdrawal of China and Russia from the world market. They represented 28% of world dairy imports in 2013, and their absence has created a big hole.
Cheap milk is good for consumers. However, sustained low prices will inevitably lead to bankruptcies, reduced supply, and rising prices later. Milk is a market like any other.
Walter Blotscher
Milk is one of those products that we tend to take for granted. We drink at least some every day, it doesn't cost much, and it's probably only when we don't have any in the fridge that we give it more than a passing thought. Yet the milk market is a market like any other, and it is currently going through a bit of an upheaval.
In Denmark, when you talk of milk, then you talk of Arla; the dairy giant has a huge share of the domestic market and is big in other countries such as the U.K. It also has a slightly unusual share structure for a big company, since it is owned by the farmers who supply it with its raw material.
Those farmers are hurting at the moment, since the price Arla pays them has fallen from kr.3.14 a litre in April to kr.2.41 today. That has reduced turnover for the average dairy farm by kr.88,000 (around £9,000) a month. Since they were barely making money at the higher price, it means that many farmers are under water, and could well go bust this winter.
Nor is this phenomenon confined to Denmark. The Global Dairy Trade index stands today at around 750, what it was at the beginning of the noughties, having been up over 1,600 in the middle of the decade and also a year ago. A major reason for the fall in prices this year has been the withdrawal of China and Russia from the world market. They represented 28% of world dairy imports in 2013, and their absence has created a big hole.
Cheap milk is good for consumers. However, sustained low prices will inevitably lead to bankruptcies, reduced supply, and rising prices later. Milk is a market like any other.
Walter Blotscher
Tuesday 25 November 2014
STILLE HJERTE
Stille Hjerte ("Quiet Heart") is the latest film by the acclaimed director Bille August, and deals with voluntary euthanasia. The wife of a doctor has an incurable disease, which will eventually paralyse and kill her. He knows how it will end, and together they decide to end her life through sleeping pills, while she is still able to make it look like suicide.
The film takes place during a last weekend with the family. There are doubts about whether it is the right thing to do, there are conflicts and tears, there are reconciliations. I thought it was rather good.
One group of local people thought it was good too, namely pensioners. The Tuesday morning showing at the local cinema was absolutely packed, with not a seat to be had. I suppose that pensioners have more interest than most in such matters. Whatever, it was good for the local cinema's coffers.
Walter Blotscher
Stille Hjerte ("Quiet Heart") is the latest film by the acclaimed director Bille August, and deals with voluntary euthanasia. The wife of a doctor has an incurable disease, which will eventually paralyse and kill her. He knows how it will end, and together they decide to end her life through sleeping pills, while she is still able to make it look like suicide.
The film takes place during a last weekend with the family. There are doubts about whether it is the right thing to do, there are conflicts and tears, there are reconciliations. I thought it was rather good.
One group of local people thought it was good too, namely pensioners. The Tuesday morning showing at the local cinema was absolutely packed, with not a seat to be had. I suppose that pensioners have more interest than most in such matters. Whatever, it was good for the local cinema's coffers.
Walter Blotscher
Monday 24 November 2014
CONVENTION RIGHTS
There are nowadays a lot of conventions designed to protect the rights of various groups; children, refugees and so on. The content of most of them is unobjectionable, so countries are keen to sign up to them, and to pledge to uphold them. The question then becomes whether a convention right is the same as a legal right.
Sometimes it is. Some countries have a rule whereby a convention signed by the Government automatically becomes part of domestic law. In others (the U.K. for instance), conventions have no domestic legal effect at all, though there is a presumption that they will be upheld. In a third group, the domestic legal effect is somewhere in between.
In Denmark conventions have no domestic legal effect. So at regular intervals, politicians suggest incorporating them into Danish law. The latest of these attempts took place this week, but the suggestion was rejected by the Government. Their justification is that Danish Governments all commit themselves to uphold the conventions, so no more is needed. Commentators and legal experts are not convinced, and say that only formal incorporation into Danish law will guarantee the rights in question.
My guess is that the conventions will eventually be incorporated. Just not yet.
Walter Blotscher
There are nowadays a lot of conventions designed to protect the rights of various groups; children, refugees and so on. The content of most of them is unobjectionable, so countries are keen to sign up to them, and to pledge to uphold them. The question then becomes whether a convention right is the same as a legal right.
Sometimes it is. Some countries have a rule whereby a convention signed by the Government automatically becomes part of domestic law. In others (the U.K. for instance), conventions have no domestic legal effect at all, though there is a presumption that they will be upheld. In a third group, the domestic legal effect is somewhere in between.
In Denmark conventions have no domestic legal effect. So at regular intervals, politicians suggest incorporating them into Danish law. The latest of these attempts took place this week, but the suggestion was rejected by the Government. Their justification is that Danish Governments all commit themselves to uphold the conventions, so no more is needed. Commentators and legal experts are not convinced, and say that only formal incorporation into Danish law will guarantee the rights in question.
My guess is that the conventions will eventually be incorporated. Just not yet.
Walter Blotscher
Friday 21 November 2014
DENMARK'S ARMY
Denmark doesn't have as much of a military tradition as some other countries, but its traditions go back a long way. This week the army celebrated its 400th anniversary. Back in November 1614 Christian IV established a national militia consisting of 4,000 infantry. In those days, Christian was one of the wealthiest monarchs in Europe, and the unchallenged big fish in northern Europe. The treasure and power disappeared following Christian's ill-advised foray into the Thirty Years War. But the militia remained; and after various twists and turns, is now the Danish national army.
Walter Blotscher
Denmark doesn't have as much of a military tradition as some other countries, but its traditions go back a long way. This week the army celebrated its 400th anniversary. Back in November 1614 Christian IV established a national militia consisting of 4,000 infantry. In those days, Christian was one of the wealthiest monarchs in Europe, and the unchallenged big fish in northern Europe. The treasure and power disappeared following Christian's ill-advised foray into the Thirty Years War. But the militia remained; and after various twists and turns, is now the Danish national army.
Walter Blotscher
Thursday 20 November 2014
A NATIONAL DISH
It's official; Denmark's national dish is "stegt flæsk med persillesovs" (fried pork belly with parsley sauce). The announcement was made on breakfast television this morning by Food Minister Dan Jørgensen.
This is one of those well-meaning official initiatives that end up being a bit of a damp squib. The outcome is the result of a public vote on a specially created website. The problem is that just 63,000 people took part, which is only one in every 90 Danes, or about a quarter of the votes that decide who goes forward to the next round of X-factor. Calling something a national dish on the basis of such a poor turnout is stretching things a bit.
It is also a bit of a boomerang for Mr Jørgensen. Since his fairly recent recall from the European Parliament to become Minister, he has had the laudable aim of trying to nudge Danes into eating more healthily. Don't get me wrong; stegt flæsk is delicious, and my mother-in-law makes it brilliantly. However, being made up mostly of fat, it would be hard for anyone to argue that it was either healthy or nutritious. Nor could it be used to (for example) spearhead a campaign to promote Danish cuisine. It's the sort of dish that mothers-in-law and grandparents make, not expensive restaurants.
What was expensive was the cost of the vote, which was around kr.1.2 million. Mr. Jørgensen insists that it was money well spent. But he would, wouldn't he?
Personally, I would say that Denmark's national dish was either "frikadeller" (meatballs) or roast pork. These are both dishes that are eaten all of the time, whereas stegt flæsk is a nostalgic reminder of an era that no longer exists, when people slaughtered a pig before winter and used all of its bits.
Walter Blotscher
It's official; Denmark's national dish is "stegt flæsk med persillesovs" (fried pork belly with parsley sauce). The announcement was made on breakfast television this morning by Food Minister Dan Jørgensen.
This is one of those well-meaning official initiatives that end up being a bit of a damp squib. The outcome is the result of a public vote on a specially created website. The problem is that just 63,000 people took part, which is only one in every 90 Danes, or about a quarter of the votes that decide who goes forward to the next round of X-factor. Calling something a national dish on the basis of such a poor turnout is stretching things a bit.
It is also a bit of a boomerang for Mr Jørgensen. Since his fairly recent recall from the European Parliament to become Minister, he has had the laudable aim of trying to nudge Danes into eating more healthily. Don't get me wrong; stegt flæsk is delicious, and my mother-in-law makes it brilliantly. However, being made up mostly of fat, it would be hard for anyone to argue that it was either healthy or nutritious. Nor could it be used to (for example) spearhead a campaign to promote Danish cuisine. It's the sort of dish that mothers-in-law and grandparents make, not expensive restaurants.
What was expensive was the cost of the vote, which was around kr.1.2 million. Mr. Jørgensen insists that it was money well spent. But he would, wouldn't he?
Personally, I would say that Denmark's national dish was either "frikadeller" (meatballs) or roast pork. These are both dishes that are eaten all of the time, whereas stegt flæsk is a nostalgic reminder of an era that no longer exists, when people slaughtered a pig before winter and used all of its bits.
Walter Blotscher
Wednesday 19 November 2014
WAR AND PEACE
I have just read (well, re-read, I read it when I was at university 35 years ago) the first part of Tolstoy's War and Peace. Only another 730 pages to go!
Nothing unusual in that. But as I read it, I can't help thinking that in the modern world, for people under 20, it is unusual to read a 1,450 page novel. I find it difficult to point to one student in my two classes whom I would think would do such a thing.
Screens and devices are taking over. Reading books for pleasure is disappearing amongst the young in the same way as handwriting has done.
Walter Blotscher
I have just read (well, re-read, I read it when I was at university 35 years ago) the first part of Tolstoy's War and Peace. Only another 730 pages to go!
Nothing unusual in that. But as I read it, I can't help thinking that in the modern world, for people under 20, it is unusual to read a 1,450 page novel. I find it difficult to point to one student in my two classes whom I would think would do such a thing.
Screens and devices are taking over. Reading books for pleasure is disappearing amongst the young in the same way as handwriting has done.
Walter Blotscher
Monday 17 November 2014
CARDBOARD
The new units for our kitchen project have come from IKEA. IKEA is cheap because you have to do most of the work in assembling things yourself (this is being done by my brother-in-law, who is a retired carpenter). So everything arrives in packages.
That all adds up to an awful lot of cardboard. Sorting through it all made me realise just how much material is used in packaging. Thankfully, most cardboard is recycled these days, and our local dump has a container specifically for it. Though I have still got to get it there, which will take a number of trips with a full car on Thursday.
Walter Blotscher
The new units for our kitchen project have come from IKEA. IKEA is cheap because you have to do most of the work in assembling things yourself (this is being done by my brother-in-law, who is a retired carpenter). So everything arrives in packages.
That all adds up to an awful lot of cardboard. Sorting through it all made me realise just how much material is used in packaging. Thankfully, most cardboard is recycled these days, and our local dump has a container specifically for it. Though I have still got to get it there, which will take a number of trips with a full car on Thursday.
Walter Blotscher
Saturday 15 November 2014
RUGBY LEAGUE (2)
I had a very lazy day today, and ended up watching two rugby games via streaming on my computer. In the morning, over a cup of coffee, it was the final of the 4-nations rugby league tournament between Australia and New Zealand in Wellington; in the afternoon, it was England versus South Africa in a rugby union match at Twickenham.
The rugby league game, which New Zealand surprisingly won 22-18, thereby winning back-to-back test matches against Australia for the first time since 1953, was by far the more interesting. The crucial difference between rugby league and rugby union is the "play the ball". Once a rugby league player is tackled, he starts play again immediately by putting the ball through his legs to a teammate; in rugby union, on the other hand, a tackle leads to a ruck, in which the ball often stays stuck. This breaks up the flow of the game in a way that doesn't happen in rugby league.
The other major difference is that in rugby league, if you haven't scored after 6 tackles, then the other side automatically gets the ball. That puts a premium on doing something creative when you do have it. The big problem with the England-South Africa match was a complete lack of creativity from both sides, thereby ensuring a rather dull game.
Walter Blotscher
I had a very lazy day today, and ended up watching two rugby games via streaming on my computer. In the morning, over a cup of coffee, it was the final of the 4-nations rugby league tournament between Australia and New Zealand in Wellington; in the afternoon, it was England versus South Africa in a rugby union match at Twickenham.
The rugby league game, which New Zealand surprisingly won 22-18, thereby winning back-to-back test matches against Australia for the first time since 1953, was by far the more interesting. The crucial difference between rugby league and rugby union is the "play the ball". Once a rugby league player is tackled, he starts play again immediately by putting the ball through his legs to a teammate; in rugby union, on the other hand, a tackle leads to a ruck, in which the ball often stays stuck. This breaks up the flow of the game in a way that doesn't happen in rugby league.
The other major difference is that in rugby league, if you haven't scored after 6 tackles, then the other side automatically gets the ball. That puts a premium on doing something creative when you do have it. The big problem with the England-South Africa match was a complete lack of creativity from both sides, thereby ensuring a rather dull game.
Walter Blotscher
Friday 14 November 2014
PROPERTY TAXES (2)
The new Danish Tax Minister is struggling to find a way out of the morass known as property taxes. At the moment, they are frozen, pending the introduction of a new system of valuation that citizens can trust. That new system has to be put in place by 1 January, otherwise the old system gets resurrected. Since, as I mentioned in my earlier post, that system is broken and widely mistrusted, time is short.
The ruling Social Democrats had hoped to do a temporary deal with the main opposition party Venstre, which (in effect) kicked the issue into touch for a couple of years; and in particular, beyond the date of the next election, which must be held before next September. That would have meant that neither party would have had to fight that election defending a new system that virtually every voter hated. However, Venstre demurred, not least because its likely coalition partners on the right want to make radical changes (i.e. cuts) to property taxes, which Venstre think are irresponsible. That in turn would have made coalition unity during the election campaign difficult, if not impossible.
So Venstre backed out. And, since the Social Democrats are in Government today, that means that they have to come up with a proposal. That proposal is also likely to continue the freeze in values, probably until 2018, together with some extra help for those with the cheapest houses. The relevant ministries will use the time to put together a more permanent solution. However, since the election seems likely to lead to a change of Government, it will be Venstre who have to pick up that ball.
As I say, property taxes are a morass, because they affect almost every voter. Devising a system that both raises money and keeps everybody happy is impossible. Which is why it was such a mistake not to maintain the old one rather better.
Walter Blotscher
The new Danish Tax Minister is struggling to find a way out of the morass known as property taxes. At the moment, they are frozen, pending the introduction of a new system of valuation that citizens can trust. That new system has to be put in place by 1 January, otherwise the old system gets resurrected. Since, as I mentioned in my earlier post, that system is broken and widely mistrusted, time is short.
The ruling Social Democrats had hoped to do a temporary deal with the main opposition party Venstre, which (in effect) kicked the issue into touch for a couple of years; and in particular, beyond the date of the next election, which must be held before next September. That would have meant that neither party would have had to fight that election defending a new system that virtually every voter hated. However, Venstre demurred, not least because its likely coalition partners on the right want to make radical changes (i.e. cuts) to property taxes, which Venstre think are irresponsible. That in turn would have made coalition unity during the election campaign difficult, if not impossible.
So Venstre backed out. And, since the Social Democrats are in Government today, that means that they have to come up with a proposal. That proposal is also likely to continue the freeze in values, probably until 2018, together with some extra help for those with the cheapest houses. The relevant ministries will use the time to put together a more permanent solution. However, since the election seems likely to lead to a change of Government, it will be Venstre who have to pick up that ball.
As I say, property taxes are a morass, because they affect almost every voter. Devising a system that both raises money and keeps everybody happy is impossible. Which is why it was such a mistake not to maintain the old one rather better.
Walter Blotscher
Thursday 13 November 2014
COMETS
Is anybody else excited by the success of the Rosetta mission? Many years ago, it set off from Earth with the aim of planting a robot on the comet 67P. Yesterday it succeeded, when the robot Philae landed on the comet. Apparently it had some problems, bouncing off the surface during its first attempt before landing shortly afterwards. But hey, let's not be churlish; aircraft often bounce off runways, and they are controlled by pilots, not some space nerd some 510 million km away.
This is like the first moon mission, back in the late 1960's. An impressive demonstration of mankind's collective ingenuity.
Walter Blotscher
Is anybody else excited by the success of the Rosetta mission? Many years ago, it set off from Earth with the aim of planting a robot on the comet 67P. Yesterday it succeeded, when the robot Philae landed on the comet. Apparently it had some problems, bouncing off the surface during its first attempt before landing shortly afterwards. But hey, let's not be churlish; aircraft often bounce off runways, and they are controlled by pilots, not some space nerd some 510 million km away.
This is like the first moon mission, back in the late 1960's. An impressive demonstration of mankind's collective ingenuity.
Walter Blotscher
Wednesday 12 November 2014
COMMUTING AND TAX
In the U.K. you do not get a tax credit for the cost of commuting. Schedule E taxes income from employment; and because of a court case a long time ago, that income is not reduced for tax purposes because you have to pay to take the train or drive a car before you can start that work.
In Denmark, the rules are different. Anybody travelling more than 24km a day (i.e. 12km each way) gets a tax deduction. This year, it is kr.2.10 for every daily km between 25 and 120, then it falls to kr.1.05 per km.
All this adds up. Even though I don't work full-time, I will still get a tax deduction this year for commuting of around kr.26.000, which (in high-tax Denmark) is quite a lot when compared with the basic personal allowance of kr.42.800.
In addition to the above, there are also rules about using your car while at work. If, for instance, my employer sent me to Copenhagen to visit a trade fair (as he did a month or two back), then he pays me kr.3.73/km for me to use my own car, the rate falling to kr.2.10/km if I do more than 20,000 km a year. Furthermore, this rate is tax-free.
If all this seems complicated, the answer is that it is. I have just adjusted my tax projection for 2014, including up to date commuting costs and various other deductions (including some for the kitchen project). The happy outcome is that December's paycheck is likely to be tax-free, which should make Christmas more enjoyable.
Walter Blotscher
In the U.K. you do not get a tax credit for the cost of commuting. Schedule E taxes income from employment; and because of a court case a long time ago, that income is not reduced for tax purposes because you have to pay to take the train or drive a car before you can start that work.
In Denmark, the rules are different. Anybody travelling more than 24km a day (i.e. 12km each way) gets a tax deduction. This year, it is kr.2.10 for every daily km between 25 and 120, then it falls to kr.1.05 per km.
All this adds up. Even though I don't work full-time, I will still get a tax deduction this year for commuting of around kr.26.000, which (in high-tax Denmark) is quite a lot when compared with the basic personal allowance of kr.42.800.
In addition to the above, there are also rules about using your car while at work. If, for instance, my employer sent me to Copenhagen to visit a trade fair (as he did a month or two back), then he pays me kr.3.73/km for me to use my own car, the rate falling to kr.2.10/km if I do more than 20,000 km a year. Furthermore, this rate is tax-free.
If all this seems complicated, the answer is that it is. I have just adjusted my tax projection for 2014, including up to date commuting costs and various other deductions (including some for the kitchen project). The happy outcome is that December's paycheck is likely to be tax-free, which should make Christmas more enjoyable.
Walter Blotscher
Tuesday 11 November 2014
SEX DISCRIMINATION (3)
The Equalities Commission in Denmark is busy issuing a load of rulings that make life rather dull. Fortunately, the courts include people who are a bit more sensible. One of the Commission's rulings was that hairdressers could not charge different prices to men and women. The court has just overturned that ruling on the grounds that a man's haircut is a service that is not the same as a woman's.
Hooray for common sense. Any married man could have told the Commission that within five seconds. I suppose I should look on the bright side and say that the system got to the right result in the end.
Walter Blotscher
The Equalities Commission in Denmark is busy issuing a load of rulings that make life rather dull. Fortunately, the courts include people who are a bit more sensible. One of the Commission's rulings was that hairdressers could not charge different prices to men and women. The court has just overturned that ruling on the grounds that a man's haircut is a service that is not the same as a woman's.
Hooray for common sense. Any married man could have told the Commission that within five seconds. I suppose I should look on the bright side and say that the system got to the right result in the end.
Walter Blotscher
Monday 10 November 2014
OW BUNKERS
OW Bunkers was one of those companies that the Danes are good at. A niche market, in this case supplying bunker fuel, the gunky product at the bottom of the refining process that ships use; a large proportion of turnover in the form of exports; and a name that the man in the street has not heard of. OW Bunkers was by this year vying for position as the world's leading supplier of bunker fuel, with a market share of around 9%. It was the second biggest company in Denmark in terms of turnover, behind A.P. Møller-Mærsk.
Until Friday, when it went into receivership. It's still unclear what exactly happened, but it appears that unsecured loans to a supplier in Singapore went wrong, bringing down the whole company.
What is odd about this tale is that OW Bunkers was only listed this spring. Its prospectus said that local managers had a credit limit of US$300,000, and that anything over that had to be approved by top management. Anything over US$10 million had to be formally approved by the Board. Given that the loan in question was for a whopping US$125 million, fingers are already being pointed at the board for lax controls.
The role of the Board in public companies is in my view the great unaddressed issue since the financial crisis hit in 2008. Boards are supposed to represent the interests of shareholders by keeping management on their toes and up to scratch. Yet that job is difficult, if not impossible, not least because many Board members are full-time chief executives in other public companies. Apart from not having much free time to understand the business for which they are formally responsible, there is often an "I won't rock the boat in this company if you don't rock the boat in mine" mentality. When rocking the boat/saying no/putting restrictions in place is exactly what is required.
I would like to see a rule introduced whereby nobody can become the director of a public company if they have an executive job in another public company. This would lead to the emergence of a new professional, a full-time non-executive director, with positions in perhaps 3-4 public companies. Non-executives would set the parameters and hold people to account; while executives would stick to executing. It wouldn't stop companies going bust, but it would perhaps stop them going bust for the reasons that OW Bunkers went bust, namely that managers in effect gambled with shareholders' money.
Walter Blotscher
OW Bunkers was one of those companies that the Danes are good at. A niche market, in this case supplying bunker fuel, the gunky product at the bottom of the refining process that ships use; a large proportion of turnover in the form of exports; and a name that the man in the street has not heard of. OW Bunkers was by this year vying for position as the world's leading supplier of bunker fuel, with a market share of around 9%. It was the second biggest company in Denmark in terms of turnover, behind A.P. Møller-Mærsk.
Until Friday, when it went into receivership. It's still unclear what exactly happened, but it appears that unsecured loans to a supplier in Singapore went wrong, bringing down the whole company.
What is odd about this tale is that OW Bunkers was only listed this spring. Its prospectus said that local managers had a credit limit of US$300,000, and that anything over that had to be approved by top management. Anything over US$10 million had to be formally approved by the Board. Given that the loan in question was for a whopping US$125 million, fingers are already being pointed at the board for lax controls.
The role of the Board in public companies is in my view the great unaddressed issue since the financial crisis hit in 2008. Boards are supposed to represent the interests of shareholders by keeping management on their toes and up to scratch. Yet that job is difficult, if not impossible, not least because many Board members are full-time chief executives in other public companies. Apart from not having much free time to understand the business for which they are formally responsible, there is often an "I won't rock the boat in this company if you don't rock the boat in mine" mentality. When rocking the boat/saying no/putting restrictions in place is exactly what is required.
I would like to see a rule introduced whereby nobody can become the director of a public company if they have an executive job in another public company. This would lead to the emergence of a new professional, a full-time non-executive director, with positions in perhaps 3-4 public companies. Non-executives would set the parameters and hold people to account; while executives would stick to executing. It wouldn't stop companies going bust, but it would perhaps stop them going bust for the reasons that OW Bunkers went bust, namely that managers in effect gambled with shareholders' money.
Walter Blotscher
Sunday 9 November 2014
LENE ESPERSEN (4)
Not long ago (i.e. back in the late noughties) Lene Espersen was considered a highly likely candidate to become Prime Minister of Denmark. Young, competent and female, she hoovered up votes in her native north Jutland, meaning that she always got elected to Parliament. She duly became leader of her party, the Conservatives. Although the junior partner in the pre-2011 right-of-centre coalition Government, her age meant that she was well-placed to take over the leadership of the right if big brother Venstre slipped up. As Foreign Minister, she could burnish her international credentials.
Alas, things did not work out that way. She messed up from the start as Foreign Minister, failing to go to crucial meetings, spending time on holiday with her family instead. The Conservatives continued to slump in the polls, outgunned to the right by the ruthless Danish People's Party. She gave up the leadership of the party, but the new leaders couldn't convince the electorate that they were relevant. Even if the party gets over the threshold in next year's general election, it will be even more the junior partner in any coalition government. If you've been Foreign Minister and deputy Prime Minister in 2010, who wants to be merely Employment Minister in 2015?
And so this week she quit politics and took a job in the private sector instead. Thereby confirming, for anybody who watches Borgen, that politics is a difficult business. Mistakes can be brutally costly, there's a lot of luck involved. And what once seemed certain doesn't always comes to pass.
Walter Blotscher
Not long ago (i.e. back in the late noughties) Lene Espersen was considered a highly likely candidate to become Prime Minister of Denmark. Young, competent and female, she hoovered up votes in her native north Jutland, meaning that she always got elected to Parliament. She duly became leader of her party, the Conservatives. Although the junior partner in the pre-2011 right-of-centre coalition Government, her age meant that she was well-placed to take over the leadership of the right if big brother Venstre slipped up. As Foreign Minister, she could burnish her international credentials.
Alas, things did not work out that way. She messed up from the start as Foreign Minister, failing to go to crucial meetings, spending time on holiday with her family instead. The Conservatives continued to slump in the polls, outgunned to the right by the ruthless Danish People's Party. She gave up the leadership of the party, but the new leaders couldn't convince the electorate that they were relevant. Even if the party gets over the threshold in next year's general election, it will be even more the junior partner in any coalition government. If you've been Foreign Minister and deputy Prime Minister in 2010, who wants to be merely Employment Minister in 2015?
And so this week she quit politics and took a job in the private sector instead. Thereby confirming, for anybody who watches Borgen, that politics is a difficult business. Mistakes can be brutally costly, there's a lot of luck involved. And what once seemed certain doesn't always comes to pass.
Walter Blotscher
Saturday 8 November 2014
NEW HOSPITALS
Denmark is in the middle of a hospital boom. Between now and 2020 it will build 16 so-called "super hospitals"; 7 completely new ones on greenfield sites in major cities such as Aarhus and Aalborg, and 9 expansions of existing facilities, including those in Copenhagen. The programme is designed to meet the country's hospital needs for the next 40 years.
And therein lies the problem. Because nobody really knows what those needs will be in 2050, the hospitals need to be flexible. Take bariatric (i.e. seriously overweight) patients, for instance, whose wards need to be bigger than the average, since they are bigger to start with and they need cranes and pulleys to help them in and out of bed. Do you extrapolate from the statistics of the past decades, which would suggest an explosion in their numbers? Or do you assume that a combination of greater awareness of the risks of obesity, changes in lifestyle, and fat suction operations will in fact reduce their numbers over time? Flexibility to cope with both possible outcomes costs money, a lot of money.
But in these straightened times, money is in short supply. Politicians have approved 16 dollops of cash, and the projects have to be finished within those envelopes. Given that building prices are currently rising faster than prices generally, this is already resulting in cuts. Planned 3-storey patient blocks are being reduced to 2; the existing kitchen is not being renovated and so on. In mid-Jutland, the two greenfield sites in Aarhus and Herning have had to cut kr.225 million out of the project.
In an earlier post, I said that rising healthcare costs have become one of the new iron laws, like death and taxes. But if the money isn't there, then it isn't there. Denmark has one of the most advanced healthcare systems in the world, and it is still free. Whether it can remain so for the next 40 years is a big question.
Walter Blotscher
Denmark is in the middle of a hospital boom. Between now and 2020 it will build 16 so-called "super hospitals"; 7 completely new ones on greenfield sites in major cities such as Aarhus and Aalborg, and 9 expansions of existing facilities, including those in Copenhagen. The programme is designed to meet the country's hospital needs for the next 40 years.
And therein lies the problem. Because nobody really knows what those needs will be in 2050, the hospitals need to be flexible. Take bariatric (i.e. seriously overweight) patients, for instance, whose wards need to be bigger than the average, since they are bigger to start with and they need cranes and pulleys to help them in and out of bed. Do you extrapolate from the statistics of the past decades, which would suggest an explosion in their numbers? Or do you assume that a combination of greater awareness of the risks of obesity, changes in lifestyle, and fat suction operations will in fact reduce their numbers over time? Flexibility to cope with both possible outcomes costs money, a lot of money.
But in these straightened times, money is in short supply. Politicians have approved 16 dollops of cash, and the projects have to be finished within those envelopes. Given that building prices are currently rising faster than prices generally, this is already resulting in cuts. Planned 3-storey patient blocks are being reduced to 2; the existing kitchen is not being renovated and so on. In mid-Jutland, the two greenfield sites in Aarhus and Herning have had to cut kr.225 million out of the project.
In an earlier post, I said that rising healthcare costs have become one of the new iron laws, like death and taxes. But if the money isn't there, then it isn't there. Denmark has one of the most advanced healthcare systems in the world, and it is still free. Whether it can remain so for the next 40 years is a big question.
Walter Blotscher
Friday 7 November 2014
THE AMERICAN MID-TERMS
American voters gave Barack Obama and his Democratic party a bloody nose on Tuesday. They were fed up with politicians in general and him in particular; they didn't feel happy with themselves. Add to that the fact that the people who vote in mid-term elections tend to be Republican, and the Democrats were up against it. Nevertheless, the size of the defeat was surprising. They lost eight seats in the Senate, giving the majority to the Republicans 53-46 (a run-off in December will probably make it 54-46); and lost further ground in the House of Representatives. The legislative branch of the American Government is now firmly in Republican hands.
Does that mean that the whole of the Government will now be Republican? Well, no. For under the U.S. constitution, the President can veto Republican bills he doesn't like; and although the Republicans have a majority in both houses of Congress, that majority is not big enough to overturn any veto. In foreign policy, President Obama is not that constrained by the views of the legislature; while in domestic politics, he can also do a fair amount of governing through executive orders. There wouldn't be major reforms or changes, but there wouldn't be (eg) a rollback of Obamacare either.
America is actually in the same situation as it was in 1994, when Bill Clinton was President and got stuffed at the mid-terms. He changed course, decided to work with the Republicans, got reelected in 1996, and (despite being impeached) both enacted major reforms and balanced the budget. Could Mr. Obama do the same? In theory, yes. Yet Mr. Clinton was a touchy-feely politician in a way that the more cerebral Mr. Obama is decidedly not. Besides, the Republican party is today both more disciplined and less inclined to compromise than it was 20 years ago. My prediction is that the legislative gridlock of the past two years will continue. The big question will then be who gets the blame for that in the presidential election in 2016.
Walter Blotscher
American voters gave Barack Obama and his Democratic party a bloody nose on Tuesday. They were fed up with politicians in general and him in particular; they didn't feel happy with themselves. Add to that the fact that the people who vote in mid-term elections tend to be Republican, and the Democrats were up against it. Nevertheless, the size of the defeat was surprising. They lost eight seats in the Senate, giving the majority to the Republicans 53-46 (a run-off in December will probably make it 54-46); and lost further ground in the House of Representatives. The legislative branch of the American Government is now firmly in Republican hands.
Does that mean that the whole of the Government will now be Republican? Well, no. For under the U.S. constitution, the President can veto Republican bills he doesn't like; and although the Republicans have a majority in both houses of Congress, that majority is not big enough to overturn any veto. In foreign policy, President Obama is not that constrained by the views of the legislature; while in domestic politics, he can also do a fair amount of governing through executive orders. There wouldn't be major reforms or changes, but there wouldn't be (eg) a rollback of Obamacare either.
America is actually in the same situation as it was in 1994, when Bill Clinton was President and got stuffed at the mid-terms. He changed course, decided to work with the Republicans, got reelected in 1996, and (despite being impeached) both enacted major reforms and balanced the budget. Could Mr. Obama do the same? In theory, yes. Yet Mr. Clinton was a touchy-feely politician in a way that the more cerebral Mr. Obama is decidedly not. Besides, the Republican party is today both more disciplined and less inclined to compromise than it was 20 years ago. My prediction is that the legislative gridlock of the past two years will continue. The big question will then be who gets the blame for that in the presidential election in 2016.
Walter Blotscher
Thursday 6 November 2014
ELECTRONIC TAGGING
I tend to associate electronic tagging, whereby prisoners are allowed out on release if they wear a sort of electronic "handcuff" on their ankles, with the United States and other countries with harsh sentencing regimes. In fact, it has existed in Denmark since 2005. However, it is restricted to prisoners whose sentences are less than 6 months, who have their own place to live and who have a job.
If you can fulfil those conditions, then serving a sentence by way of electronic tagging is an attractive alternative to being banged up, not least because the latter would probably lead to loss of job and possibly home. That has now given rise to a problem, namely that the authorities can't keep up with demand. In 2013 an average 293 prisoners served their sentence through electronic tagging; unfortunately, there were some 650 on the waiting list.
Being on the waiting list means that there are criminals running around free who have been found guilty, but who have yet to serve their sentence. This has naturally led to right-wing politicians frothing at the mouth and demanding that said criminals be locked up immediately. A better alternative in my view would be to provide more resources to electronic tagging; but then I have never been a great believer in what a former British Home Secretary once famously said, namely that "prison works".
Walter Blotscher
I tend to associate electronic tagging, whereby prisoners are allowed out on release if they wear a sort of electronic "handcuff" on their ankles, with the United States and other countries with harsh sentencing regimes. In fact, it has existed in Denmark since 2005. However, it is restricted to prisoners whose sentences are less than 6 months, who have their own place to live and who have a job.
If you can fulfil those conditions, then serving a sentence by way of electronic tagging is an attractive alternative to being banged up, not least because the latter would probably lead to loss of job and possibly home. That has now given rise to a problem, namely that the authorities can't keep up with demand. In 2013 an average 293 prisoners served their sentence through electronic tagging; unfortunately, there were some 650 on the waiting list.
Being on the waiting list means that there are criminals running around free who have been found guilty, but who have yet to serve their sentence. This has naturally led to right-wing politicians frothing at the mouth and demanding that said criminals be locked up immediately. A better alternative in my view would be to provide more resources to electronic tagging; but then I have never been a great believer in what a former British Home Secretary once famously said, namely that "prison works".
Walter Blotscher
Wednesday 5 November 2014
SPIN DOCTORS (2)
Back in a time that now seems a very long while ago (i.e. the autumn of 2011), a commission was set up to investigate, amongst other things, who had leaked details of Prime Minister Helle Thorning-Schmidt's tax affairs to the press when she was merely leader of the opposition.
After three years of work, which has involved investigating 45 witnesses, the answer emerged this week; nobody knows. The report, at more than 1,800 pages, is a door-stopper, but its conclusions are feeble. The top civil servant in the tax department, who has been suspended on full pay for the past three years, got more involved in the case than he should have done; a couple of civil servants said things they shouldn't have said; and the Parliamentary Ombudsman was misinformed.
All that leaves two groups of people happy and two unhappy. The first happy group is the main opposition political party Venstre, whose leader Lars Løkke Rasmussen is set to regain Prime Ministerial office at the next general election. His loyal lieutenant Troels Lund Poulsen, who was Tax Minister at the time and a likely forthcoming Minister in any new government, has been cleared of all impropriety, as has his then spin doctor (though if Mr. Lund Poulsen was so squeaky clean, then why did he feel the need to take unpaid leave of absence from Parliament when the commission was set up?). The second happy group is the legal profession. 33 of the 45 witnesses were deemed to have the right to legal representation, paid for by the state. Between them, all of these lawyers have notched up healthy fees.
The first unhappy group is Ms. Thorning-Schmidt and her husband, who still don't know who was out to get them. The second is the general public (i.e. taxpayers), who will wonder what is the point of paying a whopping kr.25 million to get a fat report that doesn't lead anywhere, and a lot of bills from well-off lawyers.
Walter Blotscher
Back in a time that now seems a very long while ago (i.e. the autumn of 2011), a commission was set up to investigate, amongst other things, who had leaked details of Prime Minister Helle Thorning-Schmidt's tax affairs to the press when she was merely leader of the opposition.
After three years of work, which has involved investigating 45 witnesses, the answer emerged this week; nobody knows. The report, at more than 1,800 pages, is a door-stopper, but its conclusions are feeble. The top civil servant in the tax department, who has been suspended on full pay for the past three years, got more involved in the case than he should have done; a couple of civil servants said things they shouldn't have said; and the Parliamentary Ombudsman was misinformed.
All that leaves two groups of people happy and two unhappy. The first happy group is the main opposition political party Venstre, whose leader Lars Løkke Rasmussen is set to regain Prime Ministerial office at the next general election. His loyal lieutenant Troels Lund Poulsen, who was Tax Minister at the time and a likely forthcoming Minister in any new government, has been cleared of all impropriety, as has his then spin doctor (though if Mr. Lund Poulsen was so squeaky clean, then why did he feel the need to take unpaid leave of absence from Parliament when the commission was set up?). The second happy group is the legal profession. 33 of the 45 witnesses were deemed to have the right to legal representation, paid for by the state. Between them, all of these lawyers have notched up healthy fees.
The first unhappy group is Ms. Thorning-Schmidt and her husband, who still don't know who was out to get them. The second is the general public (i.e. taxpayers), who will wonder what is the point of paying a whopping kr.25 million to get a fat report that doesn't lead anywhere, and a lot of bills from well-off lawyers.
Walter Blotscher
Monday 3 November 2014
BURKINA FASO
Some pretty dishonourable things are going on in the Land of Honourable Men, which is what the name of the country means. They started when President Blaise Compaore tried to change the constitution, so that he could run again for the top office, having exhausted his term limits under the current one. Mr. Compaore came to power 27 years ago in a military coup, in which his predecessor (also a military man) mysteriously died. 27 years is long enough for anybody to hog the top job, at least that's what a lot of people in the capital city Ouagadougou thought. On hearing that Parliament was about to vote on the constitutional changes, around a million people took to the streets and burned it down. Days later, Mr. Compaore resigned and fled to luxurious exile in Ivory Coast.
Since then, there has been a mixture of farce and chaos. A succession of military men have said that they are running the country, but nobody really seems to be in charge. The African Union has stepped in to say that power should be handed over to civilians within two weeks; but that demand is unlikely to be heeded, and could in any event not be enforced. All in all, it seems highly likely that yet another African country is about to become a failed state.
Walter Blotscher
Some pretty dishonourable things are going on in the Land of Honourable Men, which is what the name of the country means. They started when President Blaise Compaore tried to change the constitution, so that he could run again for the top office, having exhausted his term limits under the current one. Mr. Compaore came to power 27 years ago in a military coup, in which his predecessor (also a military man) mysteriously died. 27 years is long enough for anybody to hog the top job, at least that's what a lot of people in the capital city Ouagadougou thought. On hearing that Parliament was about to vote on the constitutional changes, around a million people took to the streets and burned it down. Days later, Mr. Compaore resigned and fled to luxurious exile in Ivory Coast.
Since then, there has been a mixture of farce and chaos. A succession of military men have said that they are running the country, but nobody really seems to be in charge. The African Union has stepped in to say that power should be handed over to civilians within two weeks; but that demand is unlikely to be heeded, and could in any event not be enforced. All in all, it seems highly likely that yet another African country is about to become a failed state.
Walter Blotscher
Sunday 2 November 2014
LEAVES
Leaves, leaves, leaves. I have spent the whole weekend sweeping, gathering and moving dead leaves. And I am not finished yet. My sister-in-law suggested that we cut down the big beech tree next to our house in order to lessen the supply. But it seems a shame to fell a centuries-old tree just to avoid one weekend's hard labour each year. I will finish tomorrow and then look at my tree with renewed respect.
Walter Blotscher
Leaves, leaves, leaves. I have spent the whole weekend sweeping, gathering and moving dead leaves. And I am not finished yet. My sister-in-law suggested that we cut down the big beech tree next to our house in order to lessen the supply. But it seems a shame to fell a centuries-old tree just to avoid one weekend's hard labour each year. I will finish tomorrow and then look at my tree with renewed respect.
Walter Blotscher
Saturday 1 November 2014
DIGITAL POST
A revolution is afoot in Denmark. As of today, everybody is supposed to have a digital postbox, so that the authorities can communicate with you electronically instead of by post. You can opt out if you want to, if, for instance, you are elderly and don't like computers; but you have to formally do so. Apparently there are 1,145, 614 people (just under a quarter of the population) who have neither opted out nor set up their digital postbox. They will automatically get one (though I don't know how they will be told they will get one). I was nearly one of those, but managed to set mine up last week ((I think!).
Once the system is up and running, on 1 December there will be another change. The number of public services where you have to apply online will rise dramatically. Building permits, pensions, child benefit, address registration, parking permits and lots of other things will all be handled electronically. Personal service will, quite literally, disappear.
This may be efficient, but not everybody is happy about the change. Most worries concern the elderly, who don't use computers very much, and who like to talk to a human. The Government is giving out soothing noises, that they will be well taken care of, but I suspect that there will be lots of complaints in the local paper from outraged citizens in the weeks and months ahead.
Walter Blotscher
A revolution is afoot in Denmark. As of today, everybody is supposed to have a digital postbox, so that the authorities can communicate with you electronically instead of by post. You can opt out if you want to, if, for instance, you are elderly and don't like computers; but you have to formally do so. Apparently there are 1,145, 614 people (just under a quarter of the population) who have neither opted out nor set up their digital postbox. They will automatically get one (though I don't know how they will be told they will get one). I was nearly one of those, but managed to set mine up last week ((I think!).
Once the system is up and running, on 1 December there will be another change. The number of public services where you have to apply online will rise dramatically. Building permits, pensions, child benefit, address registration, parking permits and lots of other things will all be handled electronically. Personal service will, quite literally, disappear.
This may be efficient, but not everybody is happy about the change. Most worries concern the elderly, who don't use computers very much, and who like to talk to a human. The Government is giving out soothing noises, that they will be well taken care of, but I suspect that there will be lots of complaints in the local paper from outraged citizens in the weeks and months ahead.
Walter Blotscher
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