FACEBOOK (3)

Facebook is now 10 years old, and has more than a billion users. That is an incredible record, which few companies, either now or in the future, will be able to match.

In my earlier posts on Facebook, I have said that I don't get it. Despite having an account, I still don't; 99.9% of it seems to be just mindless stream of consciousness. And so, on a regular basis, I ask my students or my children how much they use it, and what they think Facebook will look like in 10 years' time. The consensus at the moment seems to be that they are getting fed up with it, and moving to other social media such as Twitter and Instagram.

The problem is Facebook's success. When it was growing fast but dominated by young people, then it was cool to be on Facebook. But when everybody's granny (or a boring parent like me) has worked out how to be on it, so that they can follow, or communicate with, their grandchildren, then it isn't so cool any more. At which point it is best to find something else.

True, growth in low penetration Facebook countries will probably compensate for any losses in the original heartlands. And it is also true that Facebook is good at defending its position (it bought Instagram, for instance, and may well buy other competitors or potential competitors). But I have to admit that I find it hard to envisage a world in 2024 in which (say) 3 billion people are actively using Facebook.

As I say, I still just don't get it.

Walter Blotscher