LIES, DAMNED LIES AND STATISTICS

There are three types of lies; lies, damned lies and statistics. So said the British Prime Minister Benjamin Disraeli in the nineteenth century. And what was true then remains true today.

The Danish Government is desperate to show that its reform programme is not just about saving money, but will also lead to a better public sector, and thereby "secure the welfare state", in their oft-used phrase. As part of that strategy, before Employment Minister Mette Frederiksen launched her reform of (i.e. cuts to) sick pay, she also initiated a research project called "back to work". By getting doctors, social workers and psychologists together at an early stage, it might be possible to get the sick person back to work more quickly than would otherwise have been the case. Yes, that would save the state money; but it would also benefit the person concerned.

The project was launched in 22 of Denmark's 98 local authorities. In five of those, research showed that the strategy had succeeded in reducing the length of time that a sick person was off work by an average of 2.6 weeks. However, when all 22 local authorities were taken into consideration, the overall effect was "close to zero". Despite that, Ms. Frederiksen trumpeted to Parliament that cuts to sick pay were justified, since the "back to work" project had demonstrated that this was the right way forward. On the basis of this (and other things) Parliament duly passed the sick pay reform early last year.

Can you say that something works if it only works in 5 out of 98 local authorities, doesn't work in 17 others, and is uncertain in the remaining 76? The experts working on the "back to work" project all thought not, and warned the Ministry not to over-egg the pudding. As a mathematician, I would have to agree with them. Desperation, however, has its own political logic, and the warnings were ignored.

Now the chickens are coming home to roost. Ms. Frederiksen is saying that she was imprecise in her answers to Parliament, not that she misled Parliament. But as Disraeli said a long time ago, poorly presented statistics look awfully like lies. Watch this space.

Walter Blotscher