THE E.U. AND WELFARE

The general rule is that Member States in the north and west of the E.U. have more developed welfare states than those in the south and east. Given that one of the core principles of the E.U. is the free movement of people, this creates (or is purported to create) opportunities for arbitrage, whereby citizens of one Member State move to another in order to obtain better welfare benefits. Since Denmark has the most developed welfare system of all, this fear is quite pronounced here. But is it justified?

This issue popped up again this week after a decision by the European Commission that Denmark's policy on child benefit was against E.U. law. Back in 2012 the then right-of-centre Government changed the law so that immigrants from other E.U. countries could only gradually obtain the right to child benefit; the full rate would only kick in after 2 years. It is this law that the Commission has ruled against; child benefit should be available from the start.

Right-wing politicians have been quick to rant against the opportunity for "welfare tourism" that this provides. The reality is more prosaic. Government officials expect to spend Dkr.15 million a year extra in 2014 when the old rule goes, a drop in the ocean compared with the Dkr.17 billion, which is currently spent on child benefit.

None of which is surprising. If you were a poor (say) Bulgarian, would you really move to Denmark, a country you don't know and whose language you don't speak, merely in order to obtain better child benefit? True, there may be some people who do, but it's never going to be a large number. Still, that reality is not going to stop certain politicians from scaremongering.

Walter Blotscher