POPULATION GROWTH

The U.N. has just issued its latest forecast for the world's population. Two years ago, it thought that the planet would have 10.1 billion people in 2100; now it thinks that there will be almost 11 billion.

Most of the difference is due to Africa; the statisticians have hugely underestimated the number of African children. Africa is the one continent where there will be major population growth this century, from around 1.1 billion today to 4.2 billion in 2100. By then Africa will have almost as many people as Asia, whose population will grow only slowly, from 4.3 billion today to 4.7 billion in 2100. China, currently the world's most populous nation, will see its population fall by 22% to just over 1 billion, as the consequences of generations of one-child families take full effect. By contrast, Nigeria's is expected to rise by 425%, to almost 1 billion. And Tanzania, a rather sleepy place when I was there in the 1990's with some 20 million people, will by 2100 have 275 million people and be the sixth most populous country on the planet, after India, China, Nigeria, the United States and Indonesia. Three other African countries, Ethiopia, Congo and Uganda make up the top ten, along with Pakistan.

As well as major population growth, there will be population declines. Indeed, some 40 countries are expected to have reduced populations by 2100. As well as China, they include Russia, most of Eastern Europe, Japan and Cuba.

Population shifts of this order of magnitude will have huge economic and political effects. The influence of Europe, the only continent that will have fewer people overall, will surely decline. While African consumers, hitherto an exotic and barely understood lot, will increasingly become the saviours of multinational businesses, as well as providing a greater proportion of the world's sports stars.

With so many people, the planet will become more and more urban. And it will be difficult to find places not already occupied by lots of others. Thankfully, by 2100, I am unlikely to be around.

Walter Blotscher