DANISH POLITICS (2)

I have said it before, but will say it again; it is a mistake to be both party leader in a coalition Government and Foreign Minister in that same Government. The first job requires you to be at home all the time, while the second requires you to be abroad all the time. The combination did for the Conservatives' Lene Espersen in the previous right of centre Government; and I said last October that the Socialists' Villy Søvndal was making exactly the same mistake in the new left of centre one, and was likely to suffer the same fate. That was prescient. After almost a year of freefall in the polls, Mr. Søvndal resigned as party leader last week; though (like Ms. Espersen did) he will stay on as Foreign Minister.

Conventional wisdom is that changing a leader can give a political party the opportunity to renew itself. Conventional wisdom was wrong about the Conservatives; after dumping Ms. Espersen, they had a terrible general election, and were almost wiped out. I suspect that conventional wisdom will be wrong about the Socialists as well. Their biggest problem is that most of the party's Cabinet Ministers, one of whom would otherwise expect to succeed, are incredibly young. Environment Minister Ida Auken is 34, Health Minister Astrid Krag is 29, Tax Minister Thor Möger Pedersen, at 27, often looks like he should be in short trousers. Youthful enthusiasm is all very well, but being a party leader does require a certain amount of pondus.

Ms. Auken has already ruled herself out of the running, and momentum is building up behind Ms. Krag as a result. Not that she will listen to me, but my advice would be not to accept what could well turn out to be a poisoned chalice. Ms. Krag spent the first four months of this year on maternity leave after giving birth to her second child. And if being Foreign Minister doesn't mix well with being party leader, neither does having two toddlers.

All in all, I don't think that this Government is going to last its full 4-year term, it's already got that death look about it.

Walter Blotscher