CHINA

China had long had economic muscle, but it is beginning to flex its political muscles as well. Three recent developments.

First came the shift in America's military strategy, which puts more emphasis on the Pacific Region, including the stationing of troops in Australia. The U.S. is particularly concerned that spats between China and its neighbours over uninhabited rocks and the sovereignty boundary lines in the South China Sea will increase tensions.

Secondly, both China and Russia vetoed last week's U.N. Security Council resolution condemning the violence in Syria. That was despite diplomatic efforts to placate them, which resulted in a watering-down of the original text.

Thirdly, today's "ban" on Chinese airlines' participating in the E.U.'s emissions trading scheme. Air transport has since 1 January been included in the scheme, which levies a charge on flights within E.U. airspace based on carbon emissions. China is not alone in disliking this scheme, but has been more vocal in its response.

China faces a once-in-a-decade change of leadership this year, and so values stability above all else. 2012 will not be a year of concessions, in the U.N., E.U. or anywhere else.

Walter Blotscher