E.U. MATTERS

It's worth stepping back from the endless discussions about the "imminent" collapse of the Euro/Greek default/spat with the U.K. (take your pick), and looking at longer term trends with regard to the E.U. Two recent developments stand out in that regard.

The first is Sunday's referendum in Croatia about whether to join the E.U. Although turnout was low (under 50%), those who voted were clearly positive, by a 2 to 1 margin. If ever there was a time not to join the European club, a decision which includes a legal commitment to join the Euro at some point, then it is now. So the fact that ordinary Croats still choose to do so is important. Being part of the largest single market in the world obviously still counts for more than the restrictions on individual countries' freedom of manoeuvre that come from bowing to majority voting. U.K. politicians of a Little England, Eurosceptic ilk, are fond of calling for a renegotiation of their country's status within the E.U. rather than outright withdrawal, ending up in a similar position to Norway, Switzerland and Iceland. However, the latter are all, in one way or another, both special and small, which the U.K. is not. The biggest problem with that position is "why on earth would the other E.U. countries agree to it?". After all, new countries (and after Croatia comes - possibly - Serbia) are perfectly happy to sign up to the existing arrangements, warts and all.

The second is the law passed by France's Parliament, making it a crime for anyone to deny that the mass killing of Armenians under Ottoman rule was genocide. A number of countries have come close to this position in the past (the Armenian diaspora is very influential); but this is the first time that it has been put on the statute book. Turkey is furious.

The E.U.'s relations with Turkey have long been difficult. Turkey has been trying to get into the E.U. or its predecessor bodies since 1959, and the standard response has always been "yes, but not yet". Although negotiations have progressed, opinion in recent years has gone into reverse, and both France and Germany nowadays favour a position in which Turkey is outside the E.U., but closely associated with it. Recent unrest in Syria (which would be on the E.U.'s border if Turkey were let in) has probably hardened that position, which is why President Sarkozy will almost certainly sign the genocide bill. Apart from the immediate quarrel, the long-term consequences are likely to be that Turkey gives up trying to join the E.U. and looks to become one of the leaders in the Middle East instead.

So, the E.U. will become both a bigger club, and a more European club. Some would say a more Christian club, but I think that that is both oversimplistic and wrong. As I said in my earlier post, I just don't think that the southeastern border of Europe lies close to the Tigris and Euphrates rivers; nor has it ever done.

Walter Blotscher