ARAB DEMOCRACY (5)

Egypt, the most populous country in the Arab world, has become the litmus test of the Arab Spring. Western-oriented Tunisia has managed the transition to democracy; reactionary kingdoms such as Saudi Arabia have not, and are unlikely to. Egypt, sitting in the middle, could go either way.

Getting rid of former President Hosni Mubarak was, it turns out, the easy bit. Power shifted to the army, long a malign influence in Egyptian politics, and seems to have got stuck there. Parliamentary elections are due to take place on Monday; however, many Egyptians do not believe that these will result in the requisite changes, and would like the military to give up power in advance. In particular, they are incensed that so many people over the past 6-9 months have been tried by military tribunals rather than civil courts.

And so there have been fresh demonstrations recently, and they have turned violent. The army has apologised, but is that enough? The next week, I believe, will show which way Egypt will go; and so - in due course - which way the whole Arab world will go.

Walter Blotscher