THE TOUR DE FRANCE (2)

Cadel Evans of Australia will be crowned the winner of this year's "Grand Boucle" when the peleton rolls across the finish line in Paris tomorrow. Needing almost a minute from today's 42.5km time trial in and around Grenoble in order to overtake Andy Schleck, he did it with time to spare, finishing second on the stage and a convincing 90 seconds ahead in the overall standings. After twice coming second in the Tour by a margin of less than a minute, Evans finally came good. He is the first Australian to win the race.

Schleck and his Leopard Trek team must be ruing a missed opportunity. This year's Tour was tailor-made for a pure climber like him, with no prologue, only the one time trial and four mountain-top finishes. Furthermore, he had almost the same team that had brought him second place last year, and who had moved en bloc from Saxo Bank to the newly started Luxemburg-based outfit. In particular, with elder brother Frank at his side, Leopard Trek had two real contenders; the Schlecks could take it in turn to attack in the mountains, giving the other favourites a difficult decision whether to chase the attacker down, or bide their time. Mysteriously, however, they didn't stick to this plan in the Pyrenees; and by the time they started doing it in the Alps, and with success, it was too late. Evans, on the other hand, rode a perfect race. His modest BMC team rode a great team trial early on, and then kept him out of trouble in the hectic, crash-ridden, first week, allowing him to ride defensively in the mountains and then stake all on the final time trial.

That first week put paid to a number of the favourites' chances, including Britain's Bradley Wiggins, who suffered a broken collar-bone and had to retire. In particular, it hampered the hottest favourite, Saxo Bank's Alberto Contador. Already the winner of three Tours de France, and the defending champion, he was the core of Bjarne Riis' newly rebuilt team. However, while the other favourites trained specifically for the Tour, Contador chose to ride this year's Giro d'Italia, widely held to be the most demanding ever, and which he won - for the second time - by some margin. Only the greatest ever cyclists have done the Giro-Tour double; but if there is one today who could have done it, it's Contador. Unfortunately, the rest of his team was not up to the job; and when he crashed a couple of times early on, and hurt his knee, he lacked his usual punch in the mountains, even being dropped on the queen stage to the Col du Galibier. A long-range attack on the penultimate stage and a good time trial salvaged his reputation; but in hindsight, the attempt on the double was just a bit too ambitious.

So, what about next year? Well, Evans is 34 and it never gets easier at that age. Andy Schleck has now been second three years in a row, and will never get a route that gives him as good a chance as he had this year. If Saxo Bank can strengthen their team with a good helper for the mountains, and he stays healthy, then the odds-on favourite must be Contador. Although he has already won six Grand Tours, he is still only 28. I'd even put money on his doing the double next year; if he dares.

Walter Blotscher