THE COST OF BEING OLD

I have on a number of occasions mentioned in this blog the unsustainable future costs (in rich countries, at least) of pension commitments and healthcare. A new report from the OECD, the rich country club, confirms this.

By 2050, it is estimated that 10% of the population in these countries will be over 80, up from 4% in 2010, and less than 1% in 1950. People that old need lots of care and attention. Current spending on long-term care is around 1.5% of GDP; but this proportion will probably have to double, or even triple (the fastest growing population segment will be centenarians). Indeed, it may have to go up even more, since many current arrangements are carried out - free - by family members, who won't have the time in the future, since they will be working so hard trying to create that GDP.

The sensible solution is immigration from poorer countries, to import lots of care workers. However, that is not something that politicians want to think about in these straightened times, so it won't happen for a while. But it will happen eventually.

Walter Blotscher