AUNG SAN SUU KYI

The release of Nobel Peace Prize winner Aung San Suu Kyi from her long-standing house arrest in Rangoon is a welcome development, albeit (as many politicians put it) long overdue. But although in some ways it represents progress, in also leaves many questions unanswered. This is not a Nelson Mandela moment, a man released from prison after 25 years by a Government whose apartheid policy was on the brink of collapse owing to internal inconsistency. The Myanmar junta is firmly entrenched, with (as in the old Soviet Union) a core constituency that has a vested interest in keeping it that way. The country's huge neighbour China dislikes opposition dissent, and wants stability in order to allow it to exploit Myanmar's raw materials. Ms. Suu Kyi has undoubted popular support, not least as daughter of the independence hero Aung San. But she has been out of politics for years, and the National League for Democracy is in any event nowhere near as well-organised as (say) the ANC.

It would be great if Ms. Suu Kyi were to become the catalyst for serious reform in the country. But I suspect that the odds against her are simply too high.

Walter Blotscher