GEERT WILDERS

The Dutch have been without a formal Government since February, when a coalition headed by the Christian Democrats' Jan Peter Balkenende collapsed after a row about the country's military involvement in Afghanistan.

The reason is simple; electoral arithmetic. The subsequent elections in June gave no plausible coalition permutation a majority in the 150-seat Parliament, not least because of a surge of support for Geert Wilders' Freedom Party, which bagged 24 seats. Mr. Wilders is, to put it mildly, a divisive figure, an extreme right-wing politician who has not only campaigned for restrictions on immigration to the Netherlands and a tightening of rules for immigrants already in the country, but who has said some very strong things against Islam and the Koran. Indeed, so strong that he is currently on trial in Amsterdam for incitement to hatred and discrimination against Muslims.

Despite that, he currently holds the balance of power in Dutch politics. After lengthy negotiations, the new Dutch Government will be a minority coalition of the Liberals under Mark Rutte (who will become Prime Minister) and the Christian Democrats, now led by Maxime Verhagen. Between them, they have only 52 seats; however, with Mr Wilders' 24, they will just manage to get to the threshold required for a majority of 76.

Mr. Rutte and Mr. Verhagen are betting that it is better to have Mr. Wilders inside the tent than outside; after all, one reason for his success is that Dutch voters are united in thinking that "something must be done" about immigration and integration. Yet the experience of Denmark should give them pause for thought. Since 2001, that country has also been run by a 2-party right of centre minority coalition, tacitly supported from outside the Government by the very right-wing and virulently anti-immigrant Danish People's Party. The DPP have played their hand with consummate skill, using Parliamentary arithmetic to get their pet causes passed into law, while managing to avoid being tarnished with messy things such as responsibility for the financial crisis and rising unemployment. The one constant trend in the last nine years has been a rise in the DPP's support, and a corresponding fall in that of the coalition's junior partner.

Mr. Wilders is certainly as good a demagogue as the DPP's leader Pia Kjaersgaard. If he is half as good a politician as her, then the Freedom Party can look forward to happy times. Whether the Dutch people can is of course another matter entirely.

Walter Blotscher