FRENCH PENSIONS (2)

A month and a half ago I predicted that the row over the raising of the French retirement age would be "a fight to the death for preservation of the French way of life". That prediction is coming true in spades. During the past six weeks, the number of protesters and the violence of the protests have steadily increased. After blockades of the country's 12 refineries caused shortages of petrol, President Sarkozy and his Interior Minister sent in the paramilitary police, and there have been a number of arrests. It is quite possible that people could get hurt.

The President is still insisting that the reform should go ahead; from an economic and budgetary point of view, he has little choice. The real question mark is over what happens when (as is likely) the Senate passes the necessary legislation later this week. Will the millions of protesters shrug their shoulders, accept that the inevitable has happened, and stay indoors? Or will the protests get worse? The answer to that question will shape French (and European) politics for most of the next two years, until the next Presidential election.

Walter Blotscher