NUCLEAR POWER IN EUROPE

If it obtains the necessary Parliamentary approval, then yesterday's announcement by the German Government that it will extend the life of the country's 17 nuclear power stations by an average of 12 years will have implications for other European countries.

All industrialised countries are facing a dilemna. They are committed to reducing their carbon emissions substantially; yet the obvious low-carbon renewable power sources (wind and solar) are both unreliable and economically uncompetitive. On the other hand, the cheapest and most reliable fuel sources for generating electricity (coal and, at the margin, nuclear) are either full of carbon or potentially dangerous (and expensive in the long-term, because of decommissioning costs). The dilemna is particularly acute in Germany, which has more ambitious emissions reduction targets than other E.U. countries, yet gets almost 25% of its electricity from brown coal (lignite), an extremely dirty fuel that is one of the main reasons for Eastern Europe's appalling environment under communism. What to do? And since Germany is Europe's largest economy, where it goes, others are likely to follow.

In 2001, when the Social Democrats and Greens were in a coalition government together, it was decided to forbid the construction of new nuclear power plants, and to phase out all nuclear power by 2020. But with nuclear representing 23% of all electricity generation today and the renewables subsidy already costing Euros10 billion a year in a time of austerity, that commitment is no longer tenable. Hence the decision to increase the life of the older plants by 8 years and the newer ones by 14 years.

After months of discussions, the fact that the decision was only reached following a 12-hour meeting chaired by Chancellor Angela Merkel shows how difficult the problem is. And although it has kept the ruling CDU/FDP coalition together, it is by no means certain that the decision will stick. Apart from the issue of Parliamentary approval, one Green M.P. has already stated that any future Government including his party would reverse the extension. Moreover, public opinion polls suggest a solid 60% of the population want nuclear reactors closed. Protests are planned for this coming autumn.

Since the politics and economics are pretty much the same in other European countries, their Governments will be looking on anxiously from the sidelines. As ever, Germany appears to be taking a lead in matters European; though perhaps not in a way it would like.

Walter Blotscher