Friday 7 May 2010

THE U.K. GENERAL ELECTION

Well, that was a bit of a humdinger! I watched it live on DR1 (Denmark's BBC), which put on almost two hours of coverage last night, before handing over at 12.30am to the BBC's live feed for Danes to watch it throughout the night. In moments of boredom - notably when Jeremy Paxman was interviewing, why is his combative style so irritating these days? - I tried to work out the likelihood of the BBC's showing two hours of prime time coverage of the next Danish general election, and kept getting stuck on the word "nil". Anyway, thanks to DR for giving this expatriate the opportunity to renew acquaintance with the swingometer and such like.

Watching from afar certainly gives a different perspective on things. The first-past-the-post system doesn't seem so bad in theory and I am used to it in practice. But when a Danish journalist tries to explain it in Danish - particularly the fact that the votes for the losing candidates in a constituency have no value - then it seems almost absurd. No self-respecting continental would accept that a U.K. political party could in theory get 49.9% of the votes in every single constituency, and yet end up with no seats in Parliament. They also find it very difficult to accept that what happens in the event of a hung Parliament is governed not by fixed rules enshrined in the constitution, but by "conventions" worked out over time.

The message I got from the election this time around was that everybody lost. Labour lost in the literal sense, with fewer votes, and a lot less seats. The Conservatives lost, since they campaigned strongly on the need for them to obtain an overall majority, and they didn't get one. The Liberal Democrats lost, since although Nick Clegg greatly raised their national profile, they only got a 1% greater share of the vote than last time, which actually resulted in fewer seats. And the people lost; they wanted a strong Government to get them out of the current economic mess, yet ended up with no Government at all.

What happens now is going to be very interesting, since there are many possible permutations. Gordon Brown remains Prime Minister (one of the conventions) until he either resigns or loses a vote of confidence in the House of Commons. Labour and the Lib Dems together will have more seats than the Conservatives, so a coalition - with electoral reform the price of the Lib Dems' support - is a possibility. Knowing that, the Conservatives could themselves offer the Lib Dems electoral reform, thereby allowing a coalition with a working majority, with David Cameron as Prime Minister. But would the Conservative Party, the oldest and most successful political party in the world, accept the end of the electoral system they have always defended to the death? If neither of those possibilities works, could the Conservatives run a minority Government alone, with support from the Celtic fringe, and tacit support from the Opposition on the big issues?

Lost amongst the intricacies of game theory are some notable nuggets. The Green Party won its first ever seat in Brighton, well done them. Brighton is an unusual place, but it is still very hard for a minority party to win a Parliamentary seat. The racist British National Party lost in Barking, a seat they had targeted, also good news. And a number of former Ministers (eg Jacqui Smith, who put her husband's porn video rentals on her Parliamentary expenses claim) deservedly got booted out.

Finally, it appears that a fair number of people ended up not being able to vote. Third world countries habitually harangued about the benefits of free and fair elections are probably chuckling at the sight of the Mother of Parliaments making a mess of things. No way to run a whelk stall, as they say in Zimbabwe ......

Walter Blotscher

4 comments:

  1. You are right. From a Danish perspective, the English voting system seems far from democratic. I have tried to teach students how it works in UK, and they are always astounded and think that I must have gotten it wrong. I hope for this scenario: Labour throws in a voting reform and stays in power with the support of the Liberal Democrats.

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  2. With economic issues to be dealt with voting reform will be pushed away. History suggests another election in a year or so. To be PM now might well be one of those chalice things.

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  3. Hi Anni,

    As ever, the U.K. is influenced by its history, and in particular by three trends. The first is the very strong link between MP's and their local communities, which dates back to the first emergence of Parliament in the 13th century. The king summoned two men from each shire and each borough in order to hear their complaints and get their support, and that is roughly what still exists today. The Prime Minister can be booted out, if his local electorate no longer support him, which is why you saw Gordon Brown hurrying up to Southern Scotland on the night of the election.

    Secondly, by having its civil war and revolution much earlier than in other European countries (i.e. before 1700), there emerged a natural two party system, in which people were - very, very broadly - either pro or anti the ruling establishment. Cavalier v. Roundhead turned into Court v. Parliament, Tory v. Whig, Conservative v. Liberal and finally Conservative v. Labour. Those local choices above then became, in essence, "pick one of the two".

    Thirdly, there is the British ability to "muddle through", so if institutions work, however imperfectly, then it is best to leave them alone. Since the Conservative Party has been around since 1678, and since it is what it says it is (i.e. conservative), changes to the electoral system were always going to be difficult, particularly since the Conservatives kept on winning under it.

    Nobody, not even the Brits, would devise the British system if they were starting from scratch today. If you doubt that, just watch any Parliamentary debate in the House of Commons, where you are not allowed to name names "my honourable friend the member for ..." and you have to speak in negative questions "would my honourable friend not agree ...?" while bobbing up and down like a yo yo. Continental countries - note that wonderfully pejorative expression - had their revolutions post the Enlightenment, and made rational constitutions in the aftermath. We don't even have a written constitution.

    Regards,

    Walter

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  4. Hi Michael,

    I agree on the poisoned chalice metaphor. Politicians in the 19th century sometime chose to remain in opposition, if they felt that the problems at hand were insoluble, rather than accept an invitation to become Prime Minister. But that was when Parliament only met for 6 months of the year, they all had outside jobs (or, at least, outside incomes), and there was no media or internet. Nowadays it seems to be power at all costs. But power to become unpopular very, very quickly doesn't - to me, at least - seem very appealing.

    The party leaders are also in a very difficult position. Nick Clegg will have no better opportunity to get rid of first-past-the-post than today. Indeed, if there were a second election, the Lib Dems could well be annihilated, on the basis of the "better any Government than no Government" principle. Yet his chances of getting it undoubtedly lie more with Labour. On the other side, will David Cameron really give up the Exocet weapon that has made his party so successful for so long? I get the feeling that this is a Robert Peel and the corn laws moment for him. If he does the best thing for his country - a coalition with the Lib Dems, supported by electoral reform - he may end up wrecking his party in the process.

    Regards,

    Walter

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