ADVICE FROM MY MOTHER-IN-LAW
On Friday I asked my mother-in-law to visit mi hacienda in order to advise me on matters garden.
She didn't like the big stone, saying that she nearly drove into it (good; that means it will keep those pesky postal vans away). She pointed out those plants which were dead (where I was waiting patiently for them to blossom). And she told me to cut down one of the two shoots from my resilient apple tree, now rather than at the end of the year. Her will shall be done.
Best of all, she approved the ground which has been cleared in preparation for the 2011 project, the kitchen garden. So after 70kms this morning on the bike with the local cycling club, my daughter and I planted three rows of potatoes, one row each of carrots, spinach and lettuce, and assorted wild flowers. Now all we have to do is sit and wait for things to happen.
After all that physical activity, we were knackered. So we sat down in front of the tele with the remains of last night's rhubarb crumble to watch the Etna stage of the Giro d'Italia on Norwegian T.V. and argue about whether Nibali or Contador will win the overall (she, supported by her cycling nut friend, goes for Nibali, I tip Contador). The crumble was eaten with ordinary, rather than whipped, cream, which she now admits is better. If only she had read last year's post a bit earlier ...
Walter Blotscher
Sunday, 15 May 2011
Saturday, 14 May 2011
GOING OFF THE RAILS
I have always thought the trains were good in Denmark. The service is regular and efficient, prices are reasonable (particularly when compared with the U.K.), the carriages are clean, and there is not too much overcrowding at peak times. DSB is a good example of a state-owned company that runs well and turns a profit.
Lately, however, it has run into difficulties, for two reasons. The first was its decision, in December 2000, to buy 83 next generation IC4 train sets from the Italian producer AnsaldoBreda for the princely sum of kr.5 billion. The contract has been plagued by delays. Originally scheduled to start in service in 2004, only 43 units have been delivered so far. Furthermore, it has still not been possible to run a service with two train sets coupled together (coupling of the IC3 train sets is one of the main reasons why Danish railways are efficient, since trains running west out of Copenhagen can be uncoupled and sent in various directions when they reach Jutland). Under a compromise thrashed out in 2009, AnsaldoBreda agreed to pay back kr.2.25 billion of the contract sum because of the delays. However, it appears that the delivered units will never be able to be coupled, and DSB have now asked their lawyers to find a way to break the contract.
As well as lacking new rolling stock, DSB has now lost a train load of money. After the Government decided to outsource the sparsely populated lines in West Jutland to Arriva, DSB went hunting for similar opportunities abroad. One tender it won, in conjunction with the British company First, was to run the coastal routes on the Danish and Swedish sides of the Øresund. Not only has this investment been a disaster, costing some kr.725 million, but the terms of the joint venture were such that DSB ended up on the hook for financing the whole thing, First didn't have to pay a penny.
Not surprisingly, heads have rolled, including the M.D., the Finance Director and the Chairman of the Board. In consensus-minded Denmark, that is a lot of blood on the carpet. Whether it will be enough to get the company back on the rails remains to be seen; I have to say that I doubt it. DSB is not yet in the same category as British Rail, but it is heading in that direction.
Walter Blotscher
I have always thought the trains were good in Denmark. The service is regular and efficient, prices are reasonable (particularly when compared with the U.K.), the carriages are clean, and there is not too much overcrowding at peak times. DSB is a good example of a state-owned company that runs well and turns a profit.
Lately, however, it has run into difficulties, for two reasons. The first was its decision, in December 2000, to buy 83 next generation IC4 train sets from the Italian producer AnsaldoBreda for the princely sum of kr.5 billion. The contract has been plagued by delays. Originally scheduled to start in service in 2004, only 43 units have been delivered so far. Furthermore, it has still not been possible to run a service with two train sets coupled together (coupling of the IC3 train sets is one of the main reasons why Danish railways are efficient, since trains running west out of Copenhagen can be uncoupled and sent in various directions when they reach Jutland). Under a compromise thrashed out in 2009, AnsaldoBreda agreed to pay back kr.2.25 billion of the contract sum because of the delays. However, it appears that the delivered units will never be able to be coupled, and DSB have now asked their lawyers to find a way to break the contract.
As well as lacking new rolling stock, DSB has now lost a train load of money. After the Government decided to outsource the sparsely populated lines in West Jutland to Arriva, DSB went hunting for similar opportunities abroad. One tender it won, in conjunction with the British company First, was to run the coastal routes on the Danish and Swedish sides of the Øresund. Not only has this investment been a disaster, costing some kr.725 million, but the terms of the joint venture were such that DSB ended up on the hook for financing the whole thing, First didn't have to pay a penny.
Not surprisingly, heads have rolled, including the M.D., the Finance Director and the Chairman of the Board. In consensus-minded Denmark, that is a lot of blood on the carpet. Whether it will be enough to get the company back on the rails remains to be seen; I have to say that I doubt it. DSB is not yet in the same category as British Rail, but it is heading in that direction.
Walter Blotscher
Friday, 13 May 2011
EFTERLØN (2)
In my earlier post on efterløn, I said that all of the Danish political parties faced a tricky decision. There's a big hole in the state's public finances, yet the obvious way to plug it, by raising the state pension age and getting rid off/worsening efterløn, would run up against commitments not to do exactly that. What to do?
One answer came today, with an agreement between the minority Government, its steadfast supporters the right-wing Danish People's Party, and the middle-of-the-road (and somewhat mis-named) Radical Left. The pension age will be raised from 65 to 67; and the starting age for efterløn from 60 to 64, thereby reducing efterløn from 5 years to 3. The two measures will save some kr.18 billion by 2020, and keep an extra 65,000 people in work. The economic hole is thereby plugged.
Although the negotiations have been going on for some time, they were probably the easiest part. The difficult bits concern the political posturing that comes from ditching all those commitments. To give you a flavour:
1. The agreement will not come into effect until after the next election, due to be held this year. The parties to the agreement may not have the necessary 90 votes in the Folketing after the election, so the changes may never happen.
2. The opposition Social Democrats/SF Party will campaign in that election to maintain the existing 2006 deal. However, they have also said that if they don't get the necessary 90 votes which will give them power, then they will want to try to renegotiate today's agreement. Left-of-centre voters are already confused.
3. So too are DPP supporters. Having said that "under no circumstances" would they tinker with the 2006 deal, they have just done so. Is this a breach of promise, or an unfortunate necessity?
4. The Radical Left are also in difficulties. Having said long ago, that they would support the Social Democrats' leader Helle Thorning-Schmidt as the next Prime Minister, the Social Democrats/SF Party alliance promptly ignored them. Getting rid of efterløn was, and is, a key Radical Left policy, so today's agreement is a great success for them. But they have also said that they will still support Helle Thorning-Schmidt for Prime Minister after the next election. Can you support both sides of the political divide at the same time?
The biggest beneficiaries appear to be the minority Government, who sought a deal to reform efterløn and got one. Their only problem was that in order to get it, they (but not the Radical Left, another complication!) had to go along with one of the DPP's anti-immigrant tub-thumps. This was to reintroduce permanent border controls, ostensibly in order to reduce the influx of East European criminals, but really to distance Denmark from the E.U. The E.U. Commission has already said that this probably breaches E.U. law and the Schengen agreements, in which case it won't come to pass. The Government will say otherwise, but probably won't mind that.
Clear?
Walter Blotscher
In my earlier post on efterløn, I said that all of the Danish political parties faced a tricky decision. There's a big hole in the state's public finances, yet the obvious way to plug it, by raising the state pension age and getting rid off/worsening efterløn, would run up against commitments not to do exactly that. What to do?
One answer came today, with an agreement between the minority Government, its steadfast supporters the right-wing Danish People's Party, and the middle-of-the-road (and somewhat mis-named) Radical Left. The pension age will be raised from 65 to 67; and the starting age for efterløn from 60 to 64, thereby reducing efterløn from 5 years to 3. The two measures will save some kr.18 billion by 2020, and keep an extra 65,000 people in work. The economic hole is thereby plugged.
Although the negotiations have been going on for some time, they were probably the easiest part. The difficult bits concern the political posturing that comes from ditching all those commitments. To give you a flavour:
1. The agreement will not come into effect until after the next election, due to be held this year. The parties to the agreement may not have the necessary 90 votes in the Folketing after the election, so the changes may never happen.
2. The opposition Social Democrats/SF Party will campaign in that election to maintain the existing 2006 deal. However, they have also said that if they don't get the necessary 90 votes which will give them power, then they will want to try to renegotiate today's agreement. Left-of-centre voters are already confused.
3. So too are DPP supporters. Having said that "under no circumstances" would they tinker with the 2006 deal, they have just done so. Is this a breach of promise, or an unfortunate necessity?
4. The Radical Left are also in difficulties. Having said long ago, that they would support the Social Democrats' leader Helle Thorning-Schmidt as the next Prime Minister, the Social Democrats/SF Party alliance promptly ignored them. Getting rid of efterløn was, and is, a key Radical Left policy, so today's agreement is a great success for them. But they have also said that they will still support Helle Thorning-Schmidt for Prime Minister after the next election. Can you support both sides of the political divide at the same time?
The biggest beneficiaries appear to be the minority Government, who sought a deal to reform efterløn and got one. Their only problem was that in order to get it, they (but not the Radical Left, another complication!) had to go along with one of the DPP's anti-immigrant tub-thumps. This was to reintroduce permanent border controls, ostensibly in order to reduce the influx of East European criminals, but really to distance Denmark from the E.U. The E.U. Commission has already said that this probably breaches E.U. law and the Schengen agreements, in which case it won't come to pass. The Government will say otherwise, but probably won't mind that.
Clear?
Walter Blotscher
Wednesday, 11 May 2011
GREECE (3)
Greece is in real trouble. Last year it got a Euro110 billion bail-out from other E.U. countries and the IMF, but it was not enough. The economy is still shrinking, so tax revenues are falling. Yields on Government bonds are well over 10% and still rising. Today's protests against further Government austerity measures turned to riots, with tear gas from the police and injured demonstrators.
There is talk of restructuring the country's huge debt, of the E.U.'s giving them more money, of Greece's leaving the Euro, and of a combination of all three. My take on this is that the third is unlikely, the second is certain, and the first is possible (though it will probably be dressed up as something else). Supporting all three is my judgement that Germany has too much invested in the whole Euro project to let it fail. Lending money to those profligate southerners will be painful, but the alternative would be worse.
The financial crisis is not over, not by any means.
Walter Blotscher
Greece is in real trouble. Last year it got a Euro110 billion bail-out from other E.U. countries and the IMF, but it was not enough. The economy is still shrinking, so tax revenues are falling. Yields on Government bonds are well over 10% and still rising. Today's protests against further Government austerity measures turned to riots, with tear gas from the police and injured demonstrators.
There is talk of restructuring the country's huge debt, of the E.U.'s giving them more money, of Greece's leaving the Euro, and of a combination of all three. My take on this is that the third is unlikely, the second is certain, and the first is possible (though it will probably be dressed up as something else). Supporting all three is my judgement that Germany has too much invested in the whole Euro project to let it fail. Lending money to those profligate southerners will be painful, but the alternative would be worse.
The financial crisis is not over, not by any means.
Walter Blotscher
Tuesday, 10 May 2011
Monday, 9 May 2011
TIME
We are used to thinking about time as absolute. Even though Einstein came along and demonstrated that it is in fact relative, we refuse to believe it. Our modern lives are dominated by the clock.
So it is a breath of fresh air to learn that Samoa has decided to get rid of a day. It will do this on 29 December by jumping over to the west side of the international date line and joining Australia and New Zealand in the first hours of the day instead of being almost 24 hours behind in the last hours of the day. The country is doing this for economic reasons, since a large part of its trade is done with these nations. This is currently difficult, since a working Friday in Samoa is Saturday in New Zealand; while a working Monday in New Zealand is Sunday in Samoa.
Interestingly, this change is taking place some 119 years after Samoa jumped the other way, in order to try to increase its trade with the U.S. and Europe. It is yet another sign of how Asia is becoming increasingly important in the world economically.
When Great Britain shifted from the Julian to the Gregorian calendar in September 1752, there were riots in the streets by citizens wanting to get back their "lost" 11 days. Let's hope there aren't similar disturbances on Samoa.
Walter Blotscher
We are used to thinking about time as absolute. Even though Einstein came along and demonstrated that it is in fact relative, we refuse to believe it. Our modern lives are dominated by the clock.
So it is a breath of fresh air to learn that Samoa has decided to get rid of a day. It will do this on 29 December by jumping over to the west side of the international date line and joining Australia and New Zealand in the first hours of the day instead of being almost 24 hours behind in the last hours of the day. The country is doing this for economic reasons, since a large part of its trade is done with these nations. This is currently difficult, since a working Friday in Samoa is Saturday in New Zealand; while a working Monday in New Zealand is Sunday in Samoa.
Interestingly, this change is taking place some 119 years after Samoa jumped the other way, in order to try to increase its trade with the U.S. and Europe. It is yet another sign of how Asia is becoming increasingly important in the world economically.
When Great Britain shifted from the Julian to the Gregorian calendar in September 1752, there were riots in the streets by citizens wanting to get back their "lost" 11 days. Let's hope there aren't similar disturbances on Samoa.
Walter Blotscher
Sunday, 8 May 2011
A BIG STONE
Sometimes it helps if your neighbours have some heavy equipment. When Claus chewed up all the ground as part of the 2011 Project, he told me that his "stubfræser" had hit a stone, and that it might be a good idea to remove it. Since the area poking out of the soil was about the size of a dinner plate, I agreed.
So I started to dig. And I dug and I dug and I dug, removing more and more soil and revealing what turned out to be a humungously large piece of rock. There was no way that I was going to be able to get rid of that stone on my own.
Yesterday I rang my neighbour. We have a barter deal going, whereby he gets the hay in the paddock for his horses, in return for various unspecified services. This was a time to specify one of those services. Could he come with his tractor, which has a large fork on the front, dig out this stone, and move it somewhere else?
He could indeed; and duly did (see above). I had him place the stone by the front entrance, where it will be both an artistic ornament, and (even more importantly) an impediment to the post vans and dustcarts, who like to drive over the edge of our lawn instead of sticking to the road.
Walter Blotscher
Sometimes it helps if your neighbours have some heavy equipment. When Claus chewed up all the ground as part of the 2011 Project, he told me that his "stubfræser" had hit a stone, and that it might be a good idea to remove it. Since the area poking out of the soil was about the size of a dinner plate, I agreed.
So I started to dig. And I dug and I dug and I dug, removing more and more soil and revealing what turned out to be a humungously large piece of rock. There was no way that I was going to be able to get rid of that stone on my own.
Yesterday I rang my neighbour. We have a barter deal going, whereby he gets the hay in the paddock for his horses, in return for various unspecified services. This was a time to specify one of those services. Could he come with his tractor, which has a large fork on the front, dig out this stone, and move it somewhere else?
He could indeed; and duly did (see above). I had him place the stone by the front entrance, where it will be both an artistic ornament, and (even more importantly) an impediment to the post vans and dustcarts, who like to drive over the edge of our lawn instead of sticking to the road.
Walter Blotscher
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