Tuesday, 28 September 2010

STANSTED AIRPORT (2)

Much to my surprise, I managed this morning to go through Stansted Airport, from rental car drop-off to check-in, security, transit shuttle and finally gate, in about 14 minutes flat. That was undoubtedly efficient and almost pleasurable.

It is still a butt ugly airport, though. And the security people still chat all the time. And there was no coffee shop in my gate area. And no Times newspaper in W.H.Smith's. You get the point; I am not a fan.

Still, every cloud has its silver lining. When I got home and inspected my mole traps, I found two dead moles, one in each trap. Puffed up with martial pride, I then went off to play bridge, and promptly bid and made 6 hearts doubled with only 9 high card points in my hand. Now that doesn't happen very often.

Walter Blotscher

Monday, 20 September 2010

THE POPE'S VISIT

Here in England, I got caught up in the tail-end of the Pope's visit to the U.K., which finished last night. First, because a large part of Central London got cordoned off on Saturday, when I arrived, because of the open-air event in Hyde Park. Secondly, because he stayed at the Papal Nuncio's residence in Wimbledon, close to where I was staying. My friends have young children, who got very excited yesterday morning when the Pope flew off to Birmingham in a helicopter, which had landed for him in Wimbledon Park. The whole park was cordoned off by police, while around half a dozen helicopters put up a tremendous din before flying away with the Pope inside.

Judging from the visit, Britain's relationship with the head of the catholic church seems to have mellowed. Following the Reformation, catholics were at first persecuted, and then merely positively discriminated against. Modern attempts at reconciliation between Anglicanism and Catholicism then foundered on social matters such as contraception, the role of women in the church, and (most recently) sexual abuse by priests. In contrast to his Polish predecessor, who last visited in 1982, Pope Benedict was portrayed as a cold, hardline German out of touch with the modern world. Despite the fact that this was a State Visit (as opposed to the 1982 visit, which the Pope made in order to talk to his own flock), the omens were not good.

Yet it all seems to have gone rather well. Benedict made strong statements condemning sexual abuse by priests, and met some of the victims. He reminded anglicans of their shared, common Christian heritage. He stood up for proponents of faith - all faiths, catholic, anglican and muslim - against those striving for a secular, materialist world. His softly accented English charmed listeners. All in all, he came across as a benevolent grandfather rather than a teutonic bogeyman.

Nothing represented the change more than the service in Birmingham, which was held to beatify Cardinal Newman, the 19th century Oxford anglican theologian, who converted to catholicism and was made a cardinal. If this had happened in the 19th century, then it would have aroused widespread hostility, perhaps worse; today it all seems perfectly natural. In that sense, Britain has indeed moved on.

Walter Blotscher

Saturday, 18 September 2010

STANSTED AIRPORT

I am off to visit my mum in England today. Since I won't have my computer with me, that may mean no blogging for the next 10 days; though I will try to get online from someone else's.

The best way for me to get to the U.K. is from Billund to Stansted with Ryanair. Ryanair are great; not luxurious, but you gets what you pays for. And they have certainly opened up Scandinavia to air traffic. When I first met my wife in 1985, I remember flying from Southend to Billund in a tiny little plane, and the ticket costing about £500 return. My ticket today, in a much bigger plane, cost precisely Dk471 return, about £55. As a consumer, I can't complain about that trend.

Stansted Airport, on the other hand, is something else. I hate it. Despite its being designed by Norman Foster, the terminal building is ugly. The rail links, when compared with (say) Frankfurt or Amsterdam, are next to useless, the Stansted Express is dirty and expensive (it costs almost as much to go from Stansted to Central London as from Stansted to Denmark). I try to imagine the impressions of a foreigner coming to the U.K. for the first time, and think they would not be good; unlike in other countries in the Schengen arrangement, there are lots of posters about the draconian things that will happen to you if you don't have the right documents. Hardly a welcome mat.

The worst thing for me is when you fly out from the airport. Endless queues for both check-in and security. And have you noticed how the security personnel chat to each other constantly while they are impounding your toothpaste, or making you take your shoes and belt off, or the other ridiculous things they do? How can you catch a terrorist if you're reminiscing with your workmates about your booze-up in Bishop's Stortford the night before?

Still, things could be worse. At least I don't have to fly into Heathrow. A cardinal in the Pope's entourage likened it this week to arriving in a third world country. He spoke the truth. But since the Pope was about to embark on a state visit, the cardinal judiciously decided to stay away. Truth hurts.

Walter Blotscher

Friday, 17 September 2010

THOSE MYTHICAL ADMINISTRATIVE SAVINGS .....

On 1 January 2007, the map of Denmark was redrawn. Before that date there had been 271 local authorities ("kommuner") and 14 regions ("amter"); after that date there were 98 kommuner and 5 regions. All of the bodies were, and still are, run by elected politicians.

In a country of only 5.5 million people, some of the former kommuner were quite small (in olden times, prior to the merger in 1970 of the 1,300 parishes into kommuner, they could be tiny). The former kommune where I live had about 5,000 people, 3,000 in the main town and the rest scattered in the countryside round about. The arrangement was very small-town and folksy. The kommune ran the one secondary school, the three junior village schools, and the old people's homes, and organised rubbish collection. The mayor doubled as a local estate agent, though he was paid a salary for his political work. Despite being a foreigner and recent immigrant, I personally knew three or four of the 13-man council, and a number of the officials. It was easy to get a tax rebate or a building permit sorted out. Yet unlike, say, in the U.K., the council also had the power to set income tax rates, and property taxes, so that the tax burden in Denmark can and does vary by a percentage point or two or three, depending on where you live. Somewhat paradoxically, this tended to dampen rows about taxation. "We are putting up taxes in order to renovate the school buildings" is easier to swallow if you can see that the buildings do indeed need renovating, and you can watch them being spruced up as you drive past. Overall, I thought that the system worked very well, at least away from the big cities. After all, it is not often that you can berate your local politician in the changing room after a game of badminton.

However, neighbourly service ran into the brick wall of the right-wing Government's desire to limit the size of the state, and stop any further rises in taxes. Small kommuner were "obviously" inefficient, and unsuited to the tasks of the modern world; attracting new businesses to the area, for instance. It was decided that the minimum size of a kommune should be 20,000 inhabitants, which was the previous average (7 of the 98 are in fact below that threshold, but they have special support arrangements with neighbouring kommuner). Bigger entities would in turn free up huge amounts of administrative savings, which could be used to improve the quality of local government services. And so our small kommune has merged with its five rural neighbours, into a body with about 40,000 inhabitants.

Almost three years on, what has been the effect? Service levels have definitely gone down. The various functions have been merged into one location, so the building permit office is now 20 miles away, as is the tax office. Potential new businesses are automatically shown to the areas next to the motorway at the northern edge; the kommune may now be better at competing with other kommuner, but there is a new tension within the kommune. The number of paid politicans has gone down; but each of them knows less about their electorates, and they have to drive around a much larger area in order to go to meetings. My former badminton partner rarely plays badminton these days.

Any what about those mythical administrative savings, the raison d'etre of the whole thing? It turns out that they were just that, a myth. Former tasks carried out by the regions (which now deal pretty much only with hospitals) were delegated down to the kommuner, which lacked the money and skills to carry them out; major road maintenance, for instance, or institutions for troubled children. IT-systems were sometimes incompatible. So not only have administration costs risen since 2006, but the number of administrative personnel, particularly heads of department, has actually increased. Both kommuner and amter are compensating by firing service personnel in order to remain within cash spending limits mandated by central government.

Virtually all European governments are facing pressures to cut the size of the state. I don't underestimate at all how difficult that will be. But when you hear a politician telling you that there are easy fixes to be had by "cutting waste", "administrative savings" and such like, remember to take the pitch with a huge pinch of salt. It will very rarely turn out to be true.

Walter Blotscher

Thursday, 16 September 2010

ICHIRO OZAWA

The defeat of Ichiro Ozawa in the contest for the leadership of the ruling Democratic Party of Japan is good news for anybody concerned about the country's future. Since a victory for Mr. Ozawa would automatically have made him Prime Minister, much was at stake. Japan is not out of the woods yet, but at least one potential problem seems to have become smaller.

Mr. Ozawa is the great destructive force in Japanese politics. A consummate politician, who was first elected to the Diet before he was 30, he became secretary general of the permanently ruling Liberal Democratic Party in 1989 while still in his late 40's, ridiculously young by Japanese standards. His organisational skills and ability to forge compromises amongst the LDP's factions earned him respect and hatred in equal measure from his older colleagues. The latter won; and when Mr. Ozawa's patron was implicated in a corruption scandal in 1992, the knives came out. Mr. Ozawa saw the writing on the wall, and in 1993 stormed out of the LDP to form the Japan Renewal Party. For the next decade, the big question in Japanese politics was whether Mr. Ozawa and his supporters would return to the LDP in some way or try to wreck it from outside. There were many twists and turns in this story, but the endgame was reached in 2003 when he and his supporters joined the DJP. Mr. Ozawa eventually became its leader, and in 2007 led the party to victory in the upper house elections. This was followed by a thumping victory for the DJP in the elections for the much more important lower house of the Diet in August 2009. For the first time since the Second World War, the LDP seemed a spent force.

By then, Mr. Ozawa was no longer leader, but the party's secretary general. A scandal had forced him to resign, to be replaced by Yukio Hatayama, who became Prime Minister after the election. Mr. Ozawa was not in Government, but was widely perceived as the power behind the scenes. A further scandal brought down both men in June 2010, when Naoto Kan took over as party leader and Prime Minister. It was Mr. Kan, who narrowly won this week's vote, after Mr. Ozawa had challenged him to the leadership.

The election showed why people are either for or against Mr. Ozawa. Mr. Kan won, because he got the backing of local lawmakers and party members, who are sick of the continual changes in party and national leadership. Yet he won just a bare majority of the party's M.P.'s, as a large faction remains loyal to Mr. Ozawa. Will the latter now break away from the DPJ, and start the realignment process all over again? After all, one of the scandals during his time as DPJ leader was his attempt back in 2007 to forge a grand coalition with the LDP.

A new rupture might suit Mr. Ozawa's personal ambitions, but would not be good for Japan. The 17 years since Mr. Ozawa's original split from the LDP have coincided with the stagnation of the Japanese economy. It is clear that the LDP (widely held to be neither liberal, democratic nor a party) was not up to the job of sorting out the mess. With its resounding victory in 2009, it appeared that the electorate thought that the DPJ might do rather better. However, Mr. Ozawa's antics have shown that he is in many ways merely the LDP in different clothing. Stopping him becoming leader was the first step in the DJP's showing that things really are different, and that the old, unaccountable ways really are a thing of the past. As I say, Japan is not out of the woods yet by any means. But at least the DJP has given itself the chance to do something about the problems. If Mr. Ozawa could agree to harness his formidable talents to this endeavour, then the chance would be even bigger. Time will show if he can.

Walter Blotscher

Wednesday, 15 September 2010

MOLE WARFARE (3)

My cutting back the wood prompted the Mole Army to launch a suicidal flanking attack this week. Abandoning the compost heap, the kamikaze rodent circled through the wood and attacked from the north through the cornfield. He left a whole pile of hills by the big beech tree, and even managed to get under the house. That hasn't happened since we moved in here in 2002, and opened up the possibility of an attack on the front lawn on the other side. A potential nightmare.

But, but, but, Mr. Moley. I am a better hunter than I was 8 years ago. I left a decoy trap by the big beech tree, and my main weapon right on the edge of the house. Sure enough, after less than 24 hours, I had got him.

Sorry guys, but you are going to have to do a lot better than that, if you want to defeat me. You may think I am just a First World War trenches man, but I can handle Blitzkrieg just as well.

Walter Blotscher

Tuesday, 14 September 2010

THE U.S. OPEN (2)

I predicted one of the two winners at the U.S. Open. Kim Clijsters cruised to victory in the women's singles final, after a pulsating semi-final against Venus Williams, in which Clijsters alternated between playing brilliantly and like a drain. It was her third U.S. Open title in a row.

On the men's side, I had picked Roger Federer to win through. However, after playing superbly for most of the two weeks, his serve let him down in the semi-final against Novak Djokovic (though he still had two match points at one stage). An exhausted Djokovic was then beaten in the final by current world number 1 Rafael Nadal. This was Nadal's ninth Grand Slam title, and makes him only the seventh player in history to have won all four of them in his career, joining Federer in that select list.

One of the oddities about the men's game at the moment is that it has never had so much strength in depth, yet continues to be dominated by just two players. In the past seven years, Federer and Nadal have won 24 of the 28 Grand Slam titles on offer. Only the 2004 French Open (Gaston Gaudio), 2005 Australian Open (Marat Safin), 2008 Australian Open (Djokovic) and 2009 U.S. Open (Juan Martin del Potro) have gone to another player.

Looking ahead to next year, it would be a brave man who bet against those two harvesting all four titles between them again. The best hope for the rest of the field is that they get injured.

Walter Blotscher