E.U. JOBS

Like it or dislike it, I think that everyone can agree that the E.U. is a curious institution (or, to be more correct, institutions). And nowhere is it more curious than in its processes for appointing people to its top jobs.

Most organisations use one of two methods; elections (eg Parliament, political parties, unions) or merit (eg companies, civil servants). The E.U. uses neither. Candidates somehow emerge, usually over a long period of time (though all of those candidates strenuously deny that they are in fact candidates). Then, at the last minute, everybody unanimously agrees to the proposal, which this time round took place last night. If it resembles anything, then it's the staged elections to the politburos of the Chinese or Russian Communist parties.

This year's appointments (to the head of the Commission, the President of the Council and the head of Foreign Affairs) were made more complicated by the need to satisfy various interests. A balance between left-wing and right-wing politicians; a balance between small and big countries; tensions between heads of national governments and the European Parliament, which now has more say; the feeling that after 10 years, it was time for at least one of the jobs to go to one of the new countries from Eastern Europe; and the need for at least one of the jobs to go to a woman. Furthermore, given that David Cameron had desperately (and unsuccessfully) tried to stop Jean-Claude Juncker from Luxemburg from becoming head of the Commission back in June, it was felt necessary to find candidates for the other two posts, whom the U.K. could live with.

This balancing act was one of the reasons why Denmark's Prime Minister Helle Thorning-Schmidt was in the running to become President of the Council, even though at home she is widely held to be a weak leader, who is on her way out. What eventually scuppered her chances was the appointment of Italy's Foreign Minister Federica Mogherini, like Ms. Thorning-Schmidt a left-of-centre woman, as head of Foreign Affairs. That opened the door for a right-of-centre man, Poland's Prime Minister Donald Tusk, to become President of the Council.

With the top jobs now filled, attention turns to who gets what in the new Commission (which, despite being a civil service, is run by politicians or ex-politicians; did I say this was curious?). Since Ms. Thorning-Schmidt had lost out (though of course she was never a candidate in the first place), she was appeased by being promised a "heavyweight post" for Denmark's commissioner. This, somewhat surprisingly, turns out to be Margrethe Vestager, leader of her coalition partners the Radicals, who has obviously decided that the chances of her still being in the Danish Government after next year's general election are minimal at best, so she had better find herself a job in Brussels before it is too late to jump ship.

And when all of that is done, what is the end result? Perhaps the most curious thing is that it is impossible to tell. The outgoing President of the Council, Herbert van Rompuy, was widely ridiculed as a Belgian non-entity when he started, but turned out to be rather good. By contrast, the star of the outgoing head of the Commission, the former Prime Minister of Portugal Manuel Barroso, has probably waned during his 10 years in the job. Mr. Tusk was appointed in part because David Cameron thinks he can broker a deal that will give the U.K. enough concessions that its people will vote in a referendum to stay in the E.U. Time will tell if that is possible; in the meantime, Mr. Tusk promises to improve his English before he starts in the job on 1 December.

I am off to the Czech Republic tomorrow for a week, so no blogging before next weekend.

Walter Blotscher

CINEMA TICKETS

Sales of cinema tickets in Denmark are down this year. That is partly due to the good weather of the past couple of months; but mainly because the films have been poor. Danish films in particular have not sold well.

Cinema visits have increased gradually since 2000, from just over 10 million to 13.6 million in 2013, or 2.4 visits per inhabitant. That's less than in the U.S., which had 3.8 visits per inhabitant. It is also a lot less than the record for a year of 56 million tickets; that was back in 1954.

Walter Blotscher

DEN BLÅ AVIS

Den Blå Avis ("the blue newspaper") is closing after almost 33 years. First published in 1981, it quickly became the best place in Denmark to find or sell second-hand things (though you can also find new things on it). In 2008, the company was sold to E-Bay for kr.2.1 billion, which is quite a lot of money.

E-Bay is not closing the paper because the business is collapsing. Rather, like many other things, it has migrated to the internet, to the sister site www.dba.dk. In 2008, there were some 3 million items for sale on the site; last year that figure had risen to 10 million, and the expectation for this year is 15 million.

E-Bay had always intended to close the paper, when the balance between the print and electronic versions had moved in favour of the latter. That time has now come.

Walter Blotscher

AMERICA IS DIFFERENT

One of the ways in which America is different from all other Western nations is its love of guns. There are more guns than people in the country; and the number of people killed from guns there (either by other citizens or the police) is vastly higher than anywhere else. The fearsomely influential National Rifle Association says that it's not guns that kill people, but people who kill people. True; but I also believe that if there were a lot fewer guns, then there would be many fewer deaths.

Every now and then a story about guns emerges from America which simply makes me shake my head. A kid goes berserk at school and kills a load of his fellow pupils; a disgruntled fired employee wipes out his former office. This week's weirdo occurred when a shooting instructor was killed by a 9-year old girl whom he was teaching to use a gun. And not just any old gun, but an Uzi sub-machine gun.

There are parents in America who think that it is a good idea for their daughter to learn to fire an Uzi sub-machine gun. How insane is that?

Walter Blotscher

GUITAR RIFFS

BBC Radio has held a poll of listeners as to the best guitar riff ever. One of the surprising things about the result was that nine of the top ten were from the time when I bought vinyl records and listened to them endlessly (the only one I didn't know was How Soon is Now? by The Smiths). In an age of endless You Tube videos, does that mean that pop songs no longer use guitar riffs? I think it does.

I had rather hoped that the winner would be Smoke on the Water by Deep Purple, which is the first thing that I (and probably millions of other boys) ever learned to play on a guitar. However, that came fourth. The winner was Led Zeppelin's Whole Lotta Love. But that still found a soft spot in my heart, since Led Zep II, the album containing the song, was one of the first albums I ever bought, back in the early 1970's.

Walter Blotscher

BILINGUAL CHILDREN

It has long been received wisdom that nothing can be done about schools in Danish inner cities that have a high proportion of bilingual children. These schools are often (mistakenly) called ghetto schools, since the non-Danish language is usually one spoken by refugees, such as Somali, Pushtu or Arabic. Such schools become more and more concentrated, as alarmed Danish parents move their children away to schools which are more ethnically pure, or to free schools. As a reaction, politicians are forced to spread the ethnic children around the city, so that they do not all congregate in one place.

Like much received wisdom, this has now been shown to be tosh. Copenhagen has nine schools that are considered to have too high a proportion of bilingual children. In eight of them, that proportion has fallen drastically (97% to 64%, 80% to 40% etc), of itself, and over a relatively short period of time (3 years). It seems that parents of Danish children are quite happy to have their children play with those who may have a different background and culture.

Yet another example of politicians talking a lot and saying nothing.

Walter Blotscher

CARLSBERG v. TUBORG

Carlsberg and Tuborg are Denmark's biggest beer brands. In fact, they are part of the same group, since the two companies merged in 1970. At one time they controlled more than 90% of the market, which was rather boring. As in the U.K., that led to a consumer backlash, and a spate of microbreweries have opened all over the country in recent years. When we were on Bornholm we visited the Svanninge brewery, which has done very well.

Tuborg was originally the bigger brand; but Carlsberg gradually overhauled it, and at the time of the merger was decidedly the dominant player. Since then, Tuborg has tended to be sold slightly more cheaply, which has led to a revival amongst young people.

However, it is in emerging markets that the biggest changes have occurred. Tuborg is storming ahead in Turkey, China and India, which are all large emerging markets. The result is that this year, worldwide production of Tuborg will outstrip that of Carlsberg for the first time in decades.

Not that I care. If I am drinking a Danish beer, I tend to drink Vestfyns, a local brewery 15km down the road.

Walter Blotscher

THE RESILIENCE OF GRASS

When I came back from Bornholm on 5 August, my lawns were brownish-white, the result of more than a month of hot, dry weather. Today, after three weeks of intermittent showers, they are bright green again.

And long. Which means that I had to get my mower out this afternoon for the first time in a long time.

Walter Blotscher

CRAP T.V.

After a long week, neither my wife nor I was interested in doing much this evening other than staring at a screen and being entertained. Unfortunately, the result was some of the worst T.V. I have ever seen.

The programme started with Versus, an inane game show where contestants have to guess the outcome of two competitors doing silly things (eg is it quicker to take a lift down from the roof of a hotel than to abseil down the outside?). Then there was a really bad film starring Sandra Bullock called Miss Congeniality, in which an undercover FBI officer infiltrates the Miss America beauty contest (just writing that sentence makes me realise how ridiculous the plot was). Then we watched the end of Bridget Jones' Diary 2,which was also pretty bad.

Why didn't we just turn the thing off and (say) read a good book? A good question.

Walter Blotscher

THE END OF POWERFUL CLEANING

Most people would agree that a common European market for goods and services is a positive thing. However, sometimes that market is affected by other policies. Those to combat climate change, for instance.

In order to help meet climate goals, the E.U. passed an energy efficiency directive. As part of that, from 1 September it will no longer be possible to purchase or import a vacuum cleaner with a motor using more than 1,600 watts; and from 1 September 2017 that will fall to 900 watts. The directive also requires manufacturers to put an energy efficiency label, from A to G, on the packaging.

Sounds good? The problem, from a consumer's point of view, is that many of the best vacuum cleaners on the market currently use more than 1,600 watts. A recent study by the consumer organisation Which? showed that five of the seven best cleaners had motors higher than the new level. That sounds plausible; more oomph in the motor should lead to a better hoovering up of dust and spiders. Officials and manufacturers say that better technology should lead in time to the same level of cleaning, but with less power. However, consumers are sceptical; the reductions are, after all, quite large.

This little story is a good example of the potential tensions between consumer preferences (high-powered cleaning) and externalised costs (in the form of higher electricity costs, leading to greater CO2 emissions). Expect more such tensions in the coming years.

Walter Blotscher

DAGPENGE

Dagpenge (literally "day money") or unemployment benefit has been the nightmare issue for the ruling Social Democrats under Helle Thorning-Schmidt throughout their time in Government. Back in 2010 a deal was done between the then right-of-centre Government and the Radicals to reduce the length of time an unemployed worker could get dagpenge from 4 years to 2; and to double the period of full-time work required to start the clock ticking again from 26 weeks to 52. The idea was to encourage/force/browbeat (take your pick) the unemployed to be more active in finding a new job.

The Social Democrats and the parties to the left of them were vehemently opposed to the reform at the time, and promised to repeal it if they ever got into power. However, their collective showing in the September 2011 election was not as good as they had expected, and in order to become Prime Minister, Ms. Thorning-Schmidt had to do a deal with the Radicals in order to bring them into the coalition. The price of that deal was that the dagpenge reform stayed.

Even supporters of the reform accept that in order for it to work, there must be jobs available for the unemployed to seek. The problem is that in the wake of the financial crisis, those jobs have not materialised as quickly as had been expected. Despite various fudges since 2010, that means that more and more people have been dropping out of the dagpenge system altogether. Back in 2010, it was estimated that perhaps 2-4,000 people a year would find themselves in that position. However, at the end of 2013 it was 34,000; by the end of this year, it is likely to be 50,000. In Denmark, that's a lot of disgruntled people.

The result has been to put Ms. Thorning-Schmidt in a very difficult position. First, she has to defend a policy which she herself originally opposed, which goes against traditional Social Democratic values and which causes her natural supporters to choose other parties (since the departure of the Socialists from the coalition, her former partners have been giving her earache on the issue, even though they also accepted it as the price of Government). Secondly, it has reinforced the impression that the real puppetmasters in the Government are not the Social Democrats, but the Radicals under Margrethe Vestager. In popular parlance, if Margrethe doesn't want it, then it won't happen.

It looks increasingly likely that Ms. Thorning-Schmidt will lose her job at the next general election, which must be held by September next year. Against that background, it is seen as somewhat odd in Denmark that she is in the running to become European President. Here she as viewed as barely in control of her party and not at all in control of her Government. In politics, perception matters.

Walter Blotscher

FERGUSON

There are two worrying themes about the protests and demonstrations currently going on in Ferguson, a suburb of St. Louis, Missouri.

The first is that despite 50+ years of civil rights and positive discrimination legislation, race is still a divisive issue in the United States. Ferguson is overwhelmingly black; its police force is overwhelmingly white. The shooting of (black) Michael Brown by a (white) police officer, though shrouded in mystery, seems to be yet another example of young black men being hassled, or worse, by the forces of law and order.

The second, and in some ways even more worrying theme (because nobody seems to want to change things), is how those forces of law and order operate. In many ways, with riot gear, tear gas, Swat teams and the like, they look more like the military than ordinary policemen. I have always liked the fact that British policemen wear a silly hat and don't carry guns; both make them less threatening (though the number that carry guns is rising). Conversely, I have always been surprised by the fact that Danish and Swedish policemen routinely carry guns.

There is an innate tension between the public goods of freedom and security. Since 9/11, the balance has swung, in my view, too far towards the latter. What is happening in Ferguson is one of the consequences. Sadly, it won't be the last.

Walter Blotscher

DRYING CLOTHES

My wife is always telling me that drying clothes on the outdoor rack that my son and I established in the middle of the back lawn is better than drying them on the indoor rack in the boiler room. Something to do with the beneficial effects of the wind, apparently.

Being ever willing to follow the edicts of my spouse, last night I put the first post-holiday wash of my clothes on the outdoor rack. And woke up this morning to find them both completely sodden and covered in bits of leaf and similar, after a storm during the night.

I knew there was a reason why I favoured the indoor rack ......

Walter Blotscher

STATE BANKRUPTCY

What happens when a state goes bankrupt? For those who are interested, Argentina shows the way.

On 30 July Argentina defaulted on its foreign debt, for the eighth time in its history. The seeds of the latest default stem from the seventh, back in 2001, when it couldn't pay some US$81 billion of foreign debt. Under two restructurings, 93% of the bondholders took a serious "haircut" and accepted new securities, which Argentina has been servicing since then. However, the rest of the debt was scooped up cheaply by investors, often called "vulture funds", some of whom pursued Argentina through the courts for repayment in full, plus interest and costs.

Such a course of action takes time and money, persuasive reasons for the 93% to take a haircut. But for those prepared to stick it out, it can bring big rewards. Earlier this year, a group of the hold-outs won a ruling in a New York court (many international US$ bonds are issued under New York state law) that a contract is a contract, so Argentina should pay full interest and principal. Furthermore, since all of the bonds are similar, it would be illegal to service the new bonds belonging to the majority unless the minority were paid in full. Argentina appealed the ruling to the U.S. Supreme Court; but on 16 June, it decided not to get involved, thereby letting the ruling stand. Because of the injunction, an interest payment on the new bonds was not paid when due on 30 June; one month later, Argentina was in default.

It may seem unfair that a small minority of bondholders can dictate the financial affairs of a whole country. However, Argentina has played its hand incredibly badly. Essentially it has tried to ignore both the vulture funds and the court ruling, instead of negotiating with them and coming to a settlement. The sanctity of contracts is something that most legal systems value highly; pretending otherwise doesn't help at all if you want to continue to have access to the world's financial markets.

But do you? In theory, a country could satisfy all of its borrowing needs from domestic sources. However, the reality is that all countries need some foreign borrowing, since the only alternative means of paying for imports is export revenues, and they are not always available.

Given that, it is probable that a solution will be found in due course. However, by behaving so cack-handedly, it is highly likely that Argentina will have to pay a price in the form of a higher interest rate on its bonds in the future than it would otherwise have had to pay. There's a cost to being stubborn.

Walter Blotscher

ECONOMIC RECOVERY

The Danish coalition government led by Helle Thorning-Schmidt has taken to saying that growth has returned to the economy. Well, it would, wouldn't it? A new general election is due by September next year, and the state of the economy is often the determining factor in how people vote.

Even if there is an upswing, it is weak. Denmark's economy is highly dependent on those of its bigger neighbours, notably Germany, and that doesn't seem to be going as well as it once did. Sanctions against Russia are an attempt to influence events in Ukraine; but they also affect Danish business, both directly (butter and pork exports) and indirectly (German exports of machine tools).

It's too early to tell how these measures will pan out over the next twelve months. However, one thing is crystal clear; even if economic activity is increasing, it is still well below that which existed before the financial crisis. Nominal GDP in 2007-8 was around Dkr.410 billion; the latest figures, for January 2014, put it at Dkr.393 billion. That is above the low point in early 2009 of around Dkr.376 billion but is still some 4% or so below the previous peak.

Likewise with employment. Total employment was over 2,950,000 before the financial crisis struck on 15 September 2008, and there was virtually no unemployment; in January this year, it was 2,786,300, marginally up from the low point of the cycle, but again some way under the previous peak. Some 60,000 people have been unemployed for so long that they no longer have the right to unemployment benefit.

Given Denmark's extremely generous welfare state, relatively small changes in employment and unemployment have big impacts on the state's finances. The government is putting a brave face on things, but the mood in the country seems to be more one of sullen resentment and acceptance than optimism. The odds are still on Ms. Thorning-Schmidt's not being Prime Minister in a year's time.

Walter Blotscher

FOOTBALL FINANCES (2)

It's hard to feel sorry for football players. To someone like me, they seem to get paid an awful lot of money for not doing very much; indeed, with so many substitutions allowed, they don't often play a full game any more. And while they are playing, they act like prima donnas and cry babies, challenging refereeing decisions, falling over in the box in the hope of a penalty, and doing weird things like biting their opponents.

However, these things apply mainly to the big leagues in the major countries such as England, Germany and Spain. In smaller countries such as Denmark, football finances are precarious, since crowds are small. The hot team of the moment, Hobro, who came up from the second-best division last season, have a lot of part-timers. As a consequence, players wishing to make money generally have to go abroad.

Wage negotiations in Denmark are normally carried out between strong unions and strong employer organisations. Strange as that may seem to outsiders, that is also the way it is done for footballers. The two sides are currently locked in negotiations over a new basic contract that sets out terms and conditions (though not individual pay rates). Since non-agreement would mean that Danish clubs could not participate in the qualification stages of the Champions League and Europa League, I fully expect them to find a solution.

Walter Blotscher

Update: They did.

IMMIGRATION AND INTEGRATION (2)

Immigration and integration are back on the Danish political agenda. All of the political parties hold so-called summer meetings in August, usually in nice seaside hotels, where they come with new proposals and fly kites, before the new Parliamentary season starts in the autumn.

The kite flyer this time was the right-of-centre Venstre, the country's largest political party led by Lars Løkke Rasmussen, former Prime Minister and likely Prime Minister after the next general election, which must be held before September 2015. They would like to ease the so-called "24-year rule", whereby spouses who come from non-E.U. countries have to be 24 years old before they are given the right to permanent residence in Denmark; in the case of non-E.U. couples wishing to come and live in Denmark, both must be 24, and at least one of them must have a good job. The proposed easing would come from abolishing the 24-year rule in some instances, and drastically reducing the income threshold in others.

A more liberal immigration regime is normally something I would support. But here comes the sting in the tail. The easing would apply to mainly Western countries such as the U.S. and Australia; for poor countries with lots of black and brown people and/or a different religion (Pakistan, for instance), the 24-year rule would remain. Indeed, the income threshold would actually be increased.

Venstre "justify" this proposal on the grounds that people from America and Australia are more like Danes and so are more likely to integrate into Danish society. In my view, this is complete tosh. Blanket descriptions of a person on the basis of national economic indicators, religion or ethnicity are a terrible indicator of whether that person will or will not integrate (as an example, my integration capabilities have nothing to do with the fact that I was baptised an Anglican, come originally from the U.K and went bust in Africa before I arrived). Fortunately, since it is highly unlikely that Venstre will be able to form a post-election government without the support of other parties, the policy is not likely to be put into practice.

Nevertheless, it gives a strong signal to the wider world that Denmark is not interested in welcoming non-white, non-Christian people. Sadly, that was probably Venstre's express purpose.  

Walter Blotscher

LISTERIA HYSTERIA

Listeria is a naturally occurring bacterium which is present in many raw and processed foods. Everybody ingests it at some time or another, and it is usually taken care of by the body's immune system.

Occasionally, however, it hits vulnerable groups (eg the elderly, pregnant women, people in hospital) whose immune systems are weakened. Listeria can make these people seriously ill, and even kill them, through blood poisoning or meningitis.

Such an outbreak has just hit Denmark, with 12 deaths. The outbreak has been traced to a producer of a type of lamb sausage called røllepølse, which is widely eaten in sandwiches. Having traced it, and taken steps to improve the production process, presumably the outbreak is now over.

Unfortunately, just as things are getting under control, politicians start to wade in. And because there are deaths, their reactions tend to verge on the hysterical. It is not attractive.

Walter Blotscher

EFTERSKOLER (2)

Efterskoler have been around in Denmark for more than a century (see my previous post). Many of them, perhaps a quarter of the total today, had a decidedly Christian philosophy.

Denmark has changed a lot since 1879, and now has a lot more immigrants. So it is not surprising that the country's first efterskole with a Muslim philosophy has just opened its doors.

I said earlier that only efterskoler with a sharp profile are likely to survive. A Muslim profile is sharper than most. The school has opened with just 50 pupils (the norm is around 125), but I fully expect that number to rise, and that there will be more such schools in the future.  

Walter Blotscher

DANISH VETERANS (2)

Denmark's recently acquired enthusiasm for war has had adverse consequences, notably a stream of veterans with long-term injuries. Some of those are physical, but many are psychological, the result of post-traumatic stress disorder and similar.

Under old rules, PTSD could only qualify as a work-related injury (thereby opening the way for compensation) if it was diagnosed within 6 months of the soldier's return from overseas duty. This was clearly not right; and in March a unanimous Parliament changed the rules, with retrospective effect. The time limit was abolished, thereby allowing some 400 veterans, who had originally been denied compensation, the right to have their cases reopened. Unfortunately, the Defence Ministry has decided to appeal against a number of awards given under the new law. The official reason is to bring clarity to the rules; seen from the outside, the impression given is one of pettiness and parsimony.

As I said in my earlier post, Denmark is not a country that is used to war. The decision to change a 150-year benign policy was wrong, in my view; at the very least, it was not thought through in its implications. Some of those chickens are now coming home to roost, with bad effects for society.

Walter Blotscher

RUSSIAN SANCTIONS

Since Russia's annexation of Crimea and the problems in Ukraine, both the E.U. and U.S.A. have introduced sanctions against Russia and named Russians. It was surely only a matter of time before Russia reacted to this, and now it has happened; all imports of agricultural products and foodstuffs from the E.U., U.S.A., Australia, Norway and Canada have been banned.

This will affect the different countries in different ways. For Denmark, where the agricultural sector is very important, it will hit hard. The loss is estimated at Dkr3.5 billion, roughly 30% of all exports to Russia and just under 2% of all exports. The dairy giant Arla has already announced the loss of 50-75 jobs, as milk and butter sales to Russia are curtailed.

The loss of basic food products will undoubtedly hit the ordinary Russian consumer just as much as Western firms. However, in the scheme of things, that is probably less of a problem for the Russian leadership than the loss of jobs is for Western politicians. What is clear is that sanctions are a very blunt tool to use as the basis for the relationship between the West and Russia. Sooner or later, the West is going to have to deal with Vladimir Putin in a different way. Unfortunately, I suspect that it will be later.

Walter Blotscher

BLACKCURRANTS

The long hot summer has been great for Danish berries, but not so good for Danish berry producers. The price of blackcurrants, the biggest crop, is currently (so to say) only kr.0.60-0.80 per kilo, compared with a direct harvesting cost of kr.0.90 per kilo, and a breakeven price, taking all costs into account, of around kr.5 per kilo. With such low prices, producers are either not harvesting, leaving the fruit on the bushes, or tearing up the bushes and getting out of the business.

The situation is not helped by the huge increase in production in recent years in Poland. Denmark has roughly 2,100 hectares of blackcurrant bushes, but the E.U. provided subsidies to Poland to plant a massive 10,000 hectares. Appeals to "buy Danish" have been drowned out by the flood of Polish imports and subsequent low prices.

This is yet another example of the difficulties of producing a basic product in a high-cost, high-wage economy.

Walter Blotscher

HOLIDAY READING

During the 11 days we spent on Bornholm, I had no computer, and didn't go on the internet. I did, on the other hand, do a lot of reading. Three whole books, plus some Alice Munro short stories, and the first two hundred or so pages of a reread of War and Peace, some 2,000+ pages in all.

If that sounds as if I was rather anti-social, I wasn't. There was one day when it rained, and we stayed indoors reading, but otherwise it was fantastic weather and there were activities pretty much every day. What I realised was how much time I normally waste looking at screens and/or listening to "news", and how effective you can be if you (say) read during the hour between getting up at 8am and having breakfast at 9am (when our children woke up). I mentally made a note to try to do more reading and less screen-gazing in the future.

And the three books? I am Pilgrim, a crappy doorstop thriller; Return of a King, William Dalrymple's excellent account of the first Afghan War in the 1840's; and the equally excellent, albeit very different, A Death in the Family by the Norwegian Karl Ove Knausgaard. Further posts on the latter two in due course.

Walter Blotscher