ALBERTO CONTADOR (2)

After returning to competitive cycling after his ban and winning the 2012 Vuelta, Alberto Contador had, by his high standards, an indifferent 2013. Banking everything on winning the Tour de France again, he found himself continually thwarted by Sky's Chris Froome, who won both the lead-up races during the spring and the Tour itself, in what was a miracle season. However, rather than making him quit or choose alternative races, it sent Contador back to the drawing board. With a new trainer, who focussed on more training at altitude, he came into this year's Tour in much better shape, having won a number of stage races and more than held his own with Froome in the Dauphine, the final warm-up race. When Froome then crashed out of the Tour on the wet and treacherous pave stage last Wednesday, the race seemed Contador's for the taking.

True, Contador had lost more than two minutes on the same stage to a brilliant Vincenzo Nibali. However, Contador has had Nibali's number in the past; and on the first of the three stages in the Vosges on Saturday, his team put the hammer down, distancing rivals and putting Nibali on the limit. The stage was set for today's fireworks, seven categorised climbs over 160km, ending uphill with two brutal category 1's. I was ensconced on the sofa, ready to watch the first real mano a mano of this year's race.

Fireworks there were, but not those I expected. Hurtling down from the second climb on a narrow road, Contador crashed badly. He carried on for a while; but it was clear that something was badly wrong, and after the next climb, he had to abandon the race. It later emerged that he had broken his right fibia, and needs an operation. The fact that he managed to cycle up a category 1 climb with a broken leg (7.1 km at an average gradient of 8.4%) shows how tough these top cyclists are.

Nibali went on to win the stage, beating his other rivals, and now has a lead of 2.5 minutes to his nearest competitor and much more to everybody else. Does that mean that he will win the Tour? Well, under normal circumstances, yes. He's an experienced stage racer who has won both the Giro and the Vuelta, and he showed today that he is the best man in the mountains of those left. Having said that, as Froome's and Contador's experience shows, one small slip or lapse of concentration and it could all be over. Contador was apparently eating when he lost control of his bike; Froome skidded on a wet corner and broke his hand on the pavement. There are still a lot of kilometres to go, and anything can happen. That's probably the only thing keeping Nibali's rivals optimistic.

Walter Blotscher