IVORY COAST

Is Ivory Coast about to become another failed African state? The country was often viewed as an island of stability during the long Presidency of Felix Houphouet-Boigny, who ruled from independence from France in 1960 until his death in 1993. He had been a French Cabinet Minister during the last colonial years, and his steadfast loyalty to all things French (including, crucially, its armed forces) brought peace and prosperity on the back of - unusually for Africa - exports of cocoa and other agricultural commodities.

However, as in many African countries, nominal unity under a long-standing strongman masked a raft of internal problems, notably between the Christian south and the Muslim north. Houphouet-Boigny's death left a political vacuum, and the country began to fall apart, resulting in a rebellion and finally civil war in 2002. An externally brokered ceasefire and peace plan led to a 2007 power-sharing deal, in which the rebel leader became Prime Minister. That Prime Minister, the northern Muslim Alassane Ouattara, has just won the run-off in the Presidential election against the incumbent, southern Christian Laurent Gbagbo. However, despite the election result's being recognised by just about everybody that matters, including the E.U. and the U.N., Mr. Gbagbo has refused to budge. A pliant constitutional court helpfully anulled half a million of Mr. Ouattara's votes, and swore the President in for another five years.

Ivory Coast desperately needs to resolve this crisis peacefully. Not just for itself, but for the whole of Africa. If a relatively prosperous African country, supported by the world's powers, can't manage a peaceful democratic transition, what hope is there for the likes of Zimbabwe, Somalia or Sudan?

Walter Blotscher