SOUTH SUDAN

South Sudan is the world's newest country, a mere two years old. It was ridiculous that a big area largely inhabited by black Christians should be cobbled together on some nineteenth-century bureaucrat's map with an even bigger area largely inhabited by Muslim Arabs. It took decades of alternating high- and low-level civil war for the powers in Khartoum and elsewhere in the world to recognise this simple fact. In July 2011, the two areas went their separate ways.

However, just because you have made one geographical area less artificial doesn't mean that the lopped-off bit is homogeneous. Virtually every country in Africa is an artificial creation of the European imperial powers, and virtually all of them have suffered from the resulting problem; namely tribalism and a fight for resources. South Sudan is no different in that respect, except possibly that it has more resources than normal (in the form of oil) and even more limited capacity to exploit and manage them in a reasonable way. Ever since independence there have been tensions between the two largest tribes in the country, the Dinka and the Nuer, tensions which have almost certainly been fuelled by the resentful former power to the north. Those tensions have now exploded into what seems very like an ethnic civil war.

What can the world in general and the West in particular do in such a situation? Not much, in my view. Iraq, Afghanistan and Syria (plus a long list of others, Northern Ireland, for instance) should be lessons that if people in a country want to fight each other to the death, then there is not much that outsiders can do, unless and until those same people are willing to compromise and live together. At the moment, compromise seems not to be on the agenda. So we are reduced to prodding, trying to starve the flow of weapons (difficult, if not impossible) freezing bank accounts where possible, and trying to ameliorate the dire results of war by helping refugees.

That doesn't sound like much. But better to be realistic than to mouth platitudes that won't happen. It's sad that South Sudan has had so little peace; but viewed from a historical perspective, not so surprising.

Walter Blotscher

PLAYING THE DRUMS

Today I played the drums for the first time ever in public. True, it was only a 3-piece combo, and we weren't very good. True, it was only the teaching staff's rendition at the end-of-term do. But I did manage to keep time, and I loved it.

The song? Rap and ("quack duck"), by Shubidua, a rock song played to the melody of White Christmas.

Walter Blotscher

AN EXPENSIVE INVESTIGATION

The commission set up two years ago to investigate the shenanigans, real or imagined, concerning the decision about the tax status of Prime Minister Helle Thorning-Schmidt's husband Stephen Kinnock has finished hearing witnesses. Now comes a long report, which will not be finalised until next September.

If that seems an unconscionably long time, then you should consider the cost, which is already up to kr.19.2 million (more than £2 million). That is not due to the commission itself, which only has three members. Fully 70% of the costs have gone to the lawyers who appear next to the witnesses. Each witness has the right to legal representation, paid for by the state, and that representation tends to be extremely expensive.

I would have thought that if you were merely answering questions of the "what did you do and when?" sort, then you wouldn't need legal representation. Or if you felt that you did, then it would be up to you to pay for it. Obviously Danish society thinks otherwise.

Meanwhile, the person at the centre of all this has decided that he has had enough. Mr. Kinnock announced this week that he will be seeking election as an M.P. in Wales at the next British general election. Being a British parliamentarian isn't much fun these days; but it seems that remaining in Denmark is even worse.

Walter Blotscher

JULEFROKOSTER (2)

This week it's julefrokoster-time again. Yesterday it was badminton, tonight it was bridge, later this week it's the gala at my school. Fortunately, the cinema do has been postponed until the new year, and the calendar means that there is an extra day next week before Christmas starts in earnest.

One good thing is that our autumnal success at the bridge club means that I don't have to buy wine for Christmas. I came home with three decent bottles of red wine, which should please my wife.

Walter Blotscher

NELSON MANDELA

It's hard to think of anything original to say about Nelson Mandela, so I'll confine myself to two thoughts.

First, if you have been locked up by a racist regime for 27 years, then it would be difficult not to feel at least a twinge of bitterness against that regime, even if events showed that you had won the argument. Mr. Mandela's lack of bitterness was extraordinary, and was without doubt one of the key factors behind the peaceful transition in South Africa from apartheid to black majority rule.

Secondly, I loved his gesture at the rugby World Cup final in 1995, when as President, he met the two teams, South Africa and New Zealand, on the pitch before the game wearing a Springbok rugby jersey. Not many politicians, particularly one of his age, would have the nerve or the verve to wear sports clothes in any situation. But in choosing to meet the white population on their own terms (rugby being for them somewhat akin to a religion) he showed that he meant it when he said that he would be a President for all South Africans.

South Africa has not turned out the way he had hoped, and troubles lie ahead for it, in my view. But nobody could have done more.

Walter Blotscher

UNCLE CHANG

There are very few people outside the country who really know what goes on in North Korea. However, one thing is certain; the political fall and subsequent execution of Chang Song-thaek will require analysts to have a rethink.

Mr. Chang was a big cheese. His position was due in part to his marriage to Kim Kyung-Hee, daughter of North Korea's founding President, younger sister to his successor and aunt to the current leader Kim Jong-Un. At the funeral of Mr. Kim's father, Mr. Chang acompanied the coffin behind Mr. Kim, thereby signalling his importance. Given his powerful jobs in both the previous and current regimes, he was sidely seen as the power behind the throne, guiding the the inexperienced Mr. Kim as the latter consolidated his leadership.

All of that must now be reevaluated, as Mr. Chang was brutally eliminated. First, he was publicly arrested at a party meeting. Then he was put on trial, convicted, and executed almost immediately. State media described him in terms more usually associated with Maoist China; "worse than a dog" and "despicable scum" were some of the descriptions.

Outsiders will now spend the next few months poring over scraps of data, trying to figure out what is going on. My advice is not to bother; as I said before, the North Korean government is barmy. This latest episode confirms it.

Walter Blotscher

THE AVIATION INDUSTRY

The old joke in the aviation industry is: "how do you make a small fortune in this business? Start with a large fortune". Making money, as opposed to having fun with large machines, has always been difficult in aviation and continues to be today. Just how difficult can be seen in the latest report from IATA, the industry's trade organisation. Worldwide profits are expected to be US$19.7 billion, which would be a record. US$19.7 billion is a pretty large dollop of change; however, those profits will be earned on revenues of some US$743 billion, giving a margin of just 2.6%.

To set things in context, putting all of the world's airlines together, they still earn only about half as much money as Apple. As I say, it's not easy to make money in aviation.

Walter Blotscher