JORDAN SPIETH
The 21-year old wunderkind Jordan Spieth is the new star of world golf. Only one golfer in history has won the first three (of the four) majors of the year, Ben Hogan, back in 1953. This afternoon, at the British Open at St. Andrews, the home of golf, it looked as if history could repeat itself. Spieth had already won the Masters (convincingly) and the U.S.Open (less so, after Dustin Johnson three-putted the last, when one putt would have given him victory and two a play-off). Despite taking a double bogey on the par 3 eighth, a monster 30-foot putt on the sixteenth put Spieth into a share of the lead with two holes to play. Two holes at par, and he would go into a play-off; but if he parred the seventeenth and birdied the eighteenth, one of the easiest holes on the course, he would win.
He didn't. He bogeyed the seventeenth and missed his birdie putt on the eighteenth. And so the chance was gone. He will probably have nightmares about that eighth hole, since his tee shot landed on the green and he then four-putted. Despite that, I fully expect him to win more majors in the future, perhaps as early as the U.S. PGA championship in August.
And if Spieth is the new superstar of world golf, where does that leave the old one, Tiger Woods? Although Woods has won 14 majors, he hasn't won one since the 2008 U.S. Open, and has been plagued by injury. At St. Andrews, where he has won before, he missed the cut. All in all, it's looking increasingly likely that he won't win another.
Walter Blotscher
Monday, 20 July 2015
Sunday, 19 July 2015
GREECE (10)
I have to say that I don't understand Greece; or, to be more precise, the Greek Government. Having negotiated about the country's debt for more than 5 months with its colleagues in the rest of the E.U., it rejected their final offer, just before the legal basis for that offer ran out on 30 June. It did put that offer to a referendum the following Sunday, though it also passionately urged the Greek electorate to reject it. Which they did, with a thumping 61% majority.
(As an aside, although it was very clear what the Greek electorate were saying no to, it was not at all clear what they were saying yes to. Normally in a referendum, it is quite clear what the results mean. The Scots were asked whether they wanted to be independent and they said no, meaning that they wanted to remain part of the United Kingdom. The forthcoming British referendum on the E.U. will ask whether the U.K. should remain part of the E.U. If the answer is no, then that will mean that the E.U. will leave. By contrast, the meaning of the Greek no, other than "we don't like that offer" was obscure.)
Anyway, armed with that domestic support for its line, the Greek Government made an offer to the rest of the E.U. that was worse than the one that they had just offered it, and which the referendum had just rejected. Even more bizarrely, it then accepted a counter-offer from the E.U. that was even worse than that one. Without doubt, the progressive tightening of the screws was due to other countries' exasperation with the Greek government; but I still don't understand the strategy. Besides which, the deal (which included a hike in VAT to 23%, close to Danish levels, and other unpalatable measures) still had to be approved by the Greek Parliament, and within three days. Nor surprisingly, a number of the Government's own supporters voted against it, though the measures did get through.
There is a case for arguing against German-induced austerity, and better economists than me have already made it. There is also a strong case for modernising and restructuring the Greek economy. Against that background, the new Government had in January a very good argument for a combination of relief and gradual reform, based in part on the true statement "look, the mess had nothing to do with us". Six months later, Greece has had to accept terms which most other countries would have rejected as an infringement of their sovereignty. For that, Greek voters have to thank their Government.
Walter Blotscher
I have to say that I don't understand Greece; or, to be more precise, the Greek Government. Having negotiated about the country's debt for more than 5 months with its colleagues in the rest of the E.U., it rejected their final offer, just before the legal basis for that offer ran out on 30 June. It did put that offer to a referendum the following Sunday, though it also passionately urged the Greek electorate to reject it. Which they did, with a thumping 61% majority.
(As an aside, although it was very clear what the Greek electorate were saying no to, it was not at all clear what they were saying yes to. Normally in a referendum, it is quite clear what the results mean. The Scots were asked whether they wanted to be independent and they said no, meaning that they wanted to remain part of the United Kingdom. The forthcoming British referendum on the E.U. will ask whether the U.K. should remain part of the E.U. If the answer is no, then that will mean that the E.U. will leave. By contrast, the meaning of the Greek no, other than "we don't like that offer" was obscure.)
Anyway, armed with that domestic support for its line, the Greek Government made an offer to the rest of the E.U. that was worse than the one that they had just offered it, and which the referendum had just rejected. Even more bizarrely, it then accepted a counter-offer from the E.U. that was even worse than that one. Without doubt, the progressive tightening of the screws was due to other countries' exasperation with the Greek government; but I still don't understand the strategy. Besides which, the deal (which included a hike in VAT to 23%, close to Danish levels, and other unpalatable measures) still had to be approved by the Greek Parliament, and within three days. Nor surprisingly, a number of the Government's own supporters voted against it, though the measures did get through.
There is a case for arguing against German-induced austerity, and better economists than me have already made it. There is also a strong case for modernising and restructuring the Greek economy. Against that background, the new Government had in January a very good argument for a combination of relief and gradual reform, based in part on the true statement "look, the mess had nothing to do with us". Six months later, Greece has had to accept terms which most other countries would have rejected as an infringement of their sovereignty. For that, Greek voters have to thank their Government.
Walter Blotscher
Saturday, 18 July 2015
SUMMER HOUSES (2)
Despite the fact that owning a summer house is very important for many Danes, the market has been in the doldrums for the past decade. The number of summer houses sold peaked in 2005 at just over 7,000, before collapsing to below 4,000 in 2008. Even though this year has been good so far, the total is still below 6,000.
With respect to prices, the figures are even worse. At the peak, summer houses were selling on average for around kr.18.000 per square meter. Since then there has been a steady decline down to around kr.13.000 per square meter.
As always, some parts of the country are doing better than others. Demand and prices around Copenhagen and Aarhus are strong, those in West Jutland and some of the islands are weak.
Walter Blotscher
Despite the fact that owning a summer house is very important for many Danes, the market has been in the doldrums for the past decade. The number of summer houses sold peaked in 2005 at just over 7,000, before collapsing to below 4,000 in 2008. Even though this year has been good so far, the total is still below 6,000.
With respect to prices, the figures are even worse. At the peak, summer houses were selling on average for around kr.18.000 per square meter. Since then there has been a steady decline down to around kr.13.000 per square meter.
As always, some parts of the country are doing better than others. Demand and prices around Copenhagen and Aarhus are strong, those in West Jutland and some of the islands are weak.
Walter Blotscher
Thursday, 16 July 2015
MOTORCYCLE GANGS
Motorcycle gangs (known as "rocker groups" in Danish) are one of those things that get certain politicians frothing at the mouth and slightly mad. If you listen to them, then Denmark is covered in large men with leather jackets and custom-made motorbikes. Plus a mass of crime.
Having said that, it does seem as if motorcycle gangs are increasing. There have long been Hell's Angels and Bandidos; then came immigrant gangs, mainly in Copenhagen, and Satudarah from Holland Now, however, two new gangs have crossed the border from Germany, Gremium and United Tribuns Forever.
Police are worried that more gangs will mean more fights between them, particularly shootings. There was a wave of shootings in 2013, more than 50 in total, but that fell to just 16 last year. It could well rise again.
Walter Blotscher
Motorcycle gangs (known as "rocker groups" in Danish) are one of those things that get certain politicians frothing at the mouth and slightly mad. If you listen to them, then Denmark is covered in large men with leather jackets and custom-made motorbikes. Plus a mass of crime.
Having said that, it does seem as if motorcycle gangs are increasing. There have long been Hell's Angels and Bandidos; then came immigrant gangs, mainly in Copenhagen, and Satudarah from Holland Now, however, two new gangs have crossed the border from Germany, Gremium and United Tribuns Forever.
Police are worried that more gangs will mean more fights between them, particularly shootings. There was a wave of shootings in 2013, more than 50 in total, but that fell to just 16 last year. It could well rise again.
Walter Blotscher
Wednesday, 15 July 2015
A TALE OF TWO CHERRY TREES (3)
My surviving cherry tree is now over three metres high and has lots of branches, which suggests that it likes the ground it is standing in. Last year it gave a minimal two cherries; this year there are more.
The problem is that "more" still means only about six. That is either three times better than last year or still not a very good result for a four-year old tree. As an optimist, I am choosing to concentrate on the former!
Walter Blotscher
My surviving cherry tree is now over three metres high and has lots of branches, which suggests that it likes the ground it is standing in. Last year it gave a minimal two cherries; this year there are more.
The problem is that "more" still means only about six. That is either three times better than last year or still not a very good result for a four-year old tree. As an optimist, I am choosing to concentrate on the former!
Walter Blotscher
Tuesday, 14 July 2015
A LOT OF WOOD (2)
Now that summer is here, I have begun my holiday project, namely cutting up the two huge trees that are lying on my back lawn so that we can use the wood in our stove.
The first task has been to cut off all the small branches that I don't want, and make a big pile of it that I will burn. I have finished one of the trees, and will complete the other this weekend. Then I will get out my chainsaw and go slightly amok.
Walter Blotscher
Now that summer is here, I have begun my holiday project, namely cutting up the two huge trees that are lying on my back lawn so that we can use the wood in our stove.
The first task has been to cut off all the small branches that I don't want, and make a big pile of it that I will burn. I have finished one of the trees, and will complete the other this weekend. Then I will get out my chainsaw and go slightly amok.
Walter Blotscher
Monday, 13 July 2015
CORPORATE TAXES (3)
As part of a growth package two years ago, the Danish Government decided to cut the rate of corporation tax from the then 25% to 22%. This was not done immediately; in 2014 it was reduced to 24.5%, this year it's 23.5%, and it will go down to 22% next year.
As I said in an earlier post, if all flows into and out of a company (sales, wages, purchases, investments, dividends etc) are taxed, it's not at all clear that there is any point in taxing what remains, namely a company's profits. However, what is undeniably true is that in the absence of a worldwide move to abandon taxes on corporate profits, it matters to companies, and in particular to international companies, what the rates are in different countries.
Those rates vary quite a lot. In 2014, within the E.U., it varied from 35% in Malta, 33.99% in Belgium and 33.33% in France to 15% in Lithuania and Latvia, 12.5% in Ireland and Cyprus, and 10% in Bulgaria. Retaining an additional 25% of your profit instead of giving it to the taxman (however worthwhile that might be) is a hefty bonus. Assuming of course that you can make money in Bulgaria.
The U.K., which had a rate of 21% in 2014, is cutting it to 20% this year and 18% in 2020; other countries are thinking of doing the same. In general, the trend over the past 20 years has been downward. Though whether it will reach zero is a different matter entirely.
Walter Blotscher
As part of a growth package two years ago, the Danish Government decided to cut the rate of corporation tax from the then 25% to 22%. This was not done immediately; in 2014 it was reduced to 24.5%, this year it's 23.5%, and it will go down to 22% next year.
As I said in an earlier post, if all flows into and out of a company (sales, wages, purchases, investments, dividends etc) are taxed, it's not at all clear that there is any point in taxing what remains, namely a company's profits. However, what is undeniably true is that in the absence of a worldwide move to abandon taxes on corporate profits, it matters to companies, and in particular to international companies, what the rates are in different countries.
Those rates vary quite a lot. In 2014, within the E.U., it varied from 35% in Malta, 33.99% in Belgium and 33.33% in France to 15% in Lithuania and Latvia, 12.5% in Ireland and Cyprus, and 10% in Bulgaria. Retaining an additional 25% of your profit instead of giving it to the taxman (however worthwhile that might be) is a hefty bonus. Assuming of course that you can make money in Bulgaria.
The U.K., which had a rate of 21% in 2014, is cutting it to 20% this year and 18% in 2020; other countries are thinking of doing the same. In general, the trend over the past 20 years has been downward. Though whether it will reach zero is a different matter entirely.
Walter Blotscher
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