DANISH UNEMPLOYMENT
By some other countries' standards, Denmark has a low level of unemployment, just 4.8%. However, that figure is not evenly distributed. In some parts of the country it's 3% or less; in others, it's over 6%.
What is interesting is that it is often lowest in kommuner in "udkants Danmark", those far from the big cities. This is due not so much to booming growth in these areas, but the fact that able-bodied people of working age, notably the young, are fleeing to the big cities, leaving behind those who, by definition, can't be unemployed (because they are pensioners, or sick or otherwise can't work full-time).
The widening gap between the big cities and the countryside is slowly but surely moving up the political agenda here. If otherwise thriving rural businesses can't get the labour they need, then that gap is likely to increase before it narrows. And that concerns politicians of all stripes.
Walter Blotscher
Tuesday, 30 June 2015
Monday, 29 June 2015
ELECTION FEVER (7)
Yesterday Lars Løkke Rasmussen announced his government, which was even narrower than I expected. It will consist of his own Venstre party alone, none of the three other right-of-centre parties will take part. Not only will it command the immediate support of just 34 of the Folketing's 179 MP's, but it will be led by the leader of the third largest party. In British terms, it would be as if Nick Clegg or Nigel Farage were Prime Minister, and not David Cameron or Ed Miliband.
With so few people to choose from, Mr. Rasmussen has shrunk the Cabinet from 20 to 17, and brought in the former head of the main employers' organisation to be his Employment Minister. His Government programme is also decidedly thin on specific proposals, reflecting the fact that he doesn't have a Parliamentary majority for anything, and so must strike deals with both left-wing and right-wing parties if he wants to get anything done. Fortunately, political horse-trading is Mr. Rasmussen's forte, he being a leader who would rather get things done than set out grand principles.
Can such a government last? Mr. Rasmussen seemed pretty upbeat at the press conference announcing the programme, and clearly thinks he can last a full 4-year term. However, he should also reflect on the last occasion there was a single party Venstre government, back in the 1970's after the first oil crisis. Poul Hartling had even fewer MP's then than Mr. Rasmussen now, namely just 22. He ruled for only 14 months, from late 1973 to early 1975, before throwing in the towel and handing over to Social Democrat Anker Jørgensen, who had been his predecessor. If things don't go well and quickly, then the same thing could happen again.
Walter Blotscher
Yesterday Lars Løkke Rasmussen announced his government, which was even narrower than I expected. It will consist of his own Venstre party alone, none of the three other right-of-centre parties will take part. Not only will it command the immediate support of just 34 of the Folketing's 179 MP's, but it will be led by the leader of the third largest party. In British terms, it would be as if Nick Clegg or Nigel Farage were Prime Minister, and not David Cameron or Ed Miliband.
With so few people to choose from, Mr. Rasmussen has shrunk the Cabinet from 20 to 17, and brought in the former head of the main employers' organisation to be his Employment Minister. His Government programme is also decidedly thin on specific proposals, reflecting the fact that he doesn't have a Parliamentary majority for anything, and so must strike deals with both left-wing and right-wing parties if he wants to get anything done. Fortunately, political horse-trading is Mr. Rasmussen's forte, he being a leader who would rather get things done than set out grand principles.
Can such a government last? Mr. Rasmussen seemed pretty upbeat at the press conference announcing the programme, and clearly thinks he can last a full 4-year term. However, he should also reflect on the last occasion there was a single party Venstre government, back in the 1970's after the first oil crisis. Poul Hartling had even fewer MP's then than Mr. Rasmussen now, namely just 22. He ruled for only 14 months, from late 1973 to early 1975, before throwing in the towel and handing over to Social Democrat Anker Jørgensen, who had been his predecessor. If things don't go well and quickly, then the same thing could happen again.
Walter Blotscher
Sunday, 28 June 2015
GREECE (9)
I haven't written about Greece for some years. Mainly because the long-running tragedy has been going on for so long, but also because the solution is never clear.
However, what is clear from the latest negotiations is two things. First, that the left-wing Government under Alexis Tsipras elected in January is hopelessly out of its depth. And secondly, that the rest of Europe is heartily fed up with them.
Today's announcements that Greece will hold a referendum on the latest offer from the rest of the E.U. (an offer which the Greek government is urging its people to reject) and that its banks will remain closed in the meantime, are good examples. The referendum will be on the basis of a legal agreement which expires on Tuesday, so what is it worth? Furthermore, no modern country can operate for long without a banking system.
It's still - amazingly - not too late to reach agreement. But the odds are shortening on a Greek bankruptcy.
Walter Blotscher
I haven't written about Greece for some years. Mainly because the long-running tragedy has been going on for so long, but also because the solution is never clear.
However, what is clear from the latest negotiations is two things. First, that the left-wing Government under Alexis Tsipras elected in January is hopelessly out of its depth. And secondly, that the rest of Europe is heartily fed up with them.
Today's announcements that Greece will hold a referendum on the latest offer from the rest of the E.U. (an offer which the Greek government is urging its people to reject) and that its banks will remain closed in the meantime, are good examples. The referendum will be on the basis of a legal agreement which expires on Tuesday, so what is it worth? Furthermore, no modern country can operate for long without a banking system.
It's still - amazingly - not too late to reach agreement. But the odds are shortening on a Greek bankruptcy.
Walter Blotscher
Friday, 26 June 2015
ELECTION FEVER (6)
As I thought might be the case, the forces pulling apart the four right of centre parties that won last week's general election were bigger than the forces pulling them together. After a week of negotiations, Prime Ministerial candidate Lars Løkke Rasmussen has had to accept first, that no government could be formed with all of them and secondly, that no government can be formed with any of them except his own party Venstre. The others are now advising him to form a minority government, which they will support (or not?) from the sidelines on single issues.
I can see why the others don't want the responsibility of joining any government. Joining means painful compromise, and they are all terrified of being accused of breaking promises to their core voters (which is what happened when the left of centre coalition was formed in 2011). Yet can you really form a government when your party has only 34 seats in Parliament out of 179, and when that party is only the third largest? It does seem a rather odd idea.
Walter Blotscher
As I thought might be the case, the forces pulling apart the four right of centre parties that won last week's general election were bigger than the forces pulling them together. After a week of negotiations, Prime Ministerial candidate Lars Løkke Rasmussen has had to accept first, that no government could be formed with all of them and secondly, that no government can be formed with any of them except his own party Venstre. The others are now advising him to form a minority government, which they will support (or not?) from the sidelines on single issues.
I can see why the others don't want the responsibility of joining any government. Joining means painful compromise, and they are all terrified of being accused of breaking promises to their core voters (which is what happened when the left of centre coalition was formed in 2011). Yet can you really form a government when your party has only 34 seats in Parliament out of 179, and when that party is only the third largest? It does seem a rather odd idea.
Walter Blotscher
Wednesday, 24 June 2015
PUBLIC LIBRARIES
Sometimes an idea comes along that is (with hindsight) so obvious that not only is it accepted immediately, but everyone wonders why on earth nobody had thought of it beforehand. One such idea concerns public libraries.
Not so long ago, libraries - nearly all of which are public institutions - were being squeezed mercilessly. People were reading less, and those books that were being read were moving to Kindles and other tablets. Meanwhile, on the other side, local authorities were being forced into savings in (expensive) staff.
The new idea, made possible by technology, was unmanned libraries, as has happened in my local town. Entrance is gained using one's health insurance card, which is also the means for borrowing or returning a book. Staff are available at various times of the day; but if they are not, then you can go through the whole process yourself. That in turn allows libraries to be "open" longer, so that (eg) people with jobs during the day can go to the library in the evening.
There is in theory the possibility that a local citizen can enter the library, nick all the books and run off with them. However, the combination of video cameras and the ubiquitous health insurance card makes this highly unlikely. Besides, unless the thief is a book collector (remember that for a book lover, the service is still free), stealing a load of second-hand books won't produce much cash.
Walter Blotscher
Sometimes an idea comes along that is (with hindsight) so obvious that not only is it accepted immediately, but everyone wonders why on earth nobody had thought of it beforehand. One such idea concerns public libraries.
Not so long ago, libraries - nearly all of which are public institutions - were being squeezed mercilessly. People were reading less, and those books that were being read were moving to Kindles and other tablets. Meanwhile, on the other side, local authorities were being forced into savings in (expensive) staff.
The new idea, made possible by technology, was unmanned libraries, as has happened in my local town. Entrance is gained using one's health insurance card, which is also the means for borrowing or returning a book. Staff are available at various times of the day; but if they are not, then you can go through the whole process yourself. That in turn allows libraries to be "open" longer, so that (eg) people with jobs during the day can go to the library in the evening.
There is in theory the possibility that a local citizen can enter the library, nick all the books and run off with them. However, the combination of video cameras and the ubiquitous health insurance card makes this highly unlikely. Besides, unless the thief is a book collector (remember that for a book lover, the service is still free), stealing a load of second-hand books won't produce much cash.
Walter Blotscher
Tuesday, 23 June 2015
FREE SCHOOLS (4)
Consolidation in the Danish school sector continues apace, with the number of free schools creeping up. Since I last wrote about this in 2012, the total has risen from 526 to 550, covering 110,000 pupils. This is despite the fact that the subsidy given by the state to free schools has fallen from 75% to 71%.
Although there are concerns about the state education sector, much of the development continues to take place in rural areas, where free schools are replacing small state schools that would otherwise have closed. That process is far from complete.
Walter Blotscher
Consolidation in the Danish school sector continues apace, with the number of free schools creeping up. Since I last wrote about this in 2012, the total has risen from 526 to 550, covering 110,000 pupils. This is despite the fact that the subsidy given by the state to free schools has fallen from 75% to 71%.
Although there are concerns about the state education sector, much of the development continues to take place in rural areas, where free schools are replacing small state schools that would otherwise have closed. That process is far from complete.
Walter Blotscher
Monday, 22 June 2015
CULTURAL DISSONANCE
I have been to two completely different cultural experiences at the local cinema during the past 24 hours.
Yesterday it was opera, Mozart's The Marriage of Figaro. Three and a half hours of nonsense plot, fantastic arias, and great music, with champagne and cake in the interval. This evening it was Mad Max Fury Road, all nonsense plot, desert, pyrotechnics and relentless action.
I loved both of them.
Walter Blotscher
I have been to two completely different cultural experiences at the local cinema during the past 24 hours.
Yesterday it was opera, Mozart's The Marriage of Figaro. Three and a half hours of nonsense plot, fantastic arias, and great music, with champagne and cake in the interval. This evening it was Mad Max Fury Road, all nonsense plot, desert, pyrotechnics and relentless action.
I loved both of them.
Walter Blotscher
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