A SHORT HOLIDAY
I am off to the U.K. tomorrow morning for 10 days. I will visit my Mum, and go on my annual walking holiday in the Lake District. So no blogging before early June.
Walter Blotscher
Friday, 23 May 2014
Thursday, 22 May 2014
NOT GOOD AT MEASURING
The French national train operator SNCF has ordered 2,000 new trains, at a total cost of some Euros15 billion. Unfortunately, the trains, which are yet to be delivered, have a problem; they are too big for many French railway stations.
How can that be? Apparently, the company responsible for the track infrastructure gave SNCF measurements based on modern platforms. These ignored the many regional platforms, which were built more than 50 years ago, and which were bigger (trains being correspondingly narrower then). Construction work has begun on narrowing the platforms (which presumably entails not much more than bashing bits of concrete off the sides). But 1,000 platforms still need to be adjusted.
Fortunately, someone realised that there was a problem before the trains were delivered. But the story does highlight some of the difficulties of separating railway infrastructure from operations. My brother, who worked for the railways all his working life, always said that it was a mistake to separate the two. A railway is a complex organisation, and the various bits need to work with, and understand, the other bits.
Walter Blotscher
The French national train operator SNCF has ordered 2,000 new trains, at a total cost of some Euros15 billion. Unfortunately, the trains, which are yet to be delivered, have a problem; they are too big for many French railway stations.
How can that be? Apparently, the company responsible for the track infrastructure gave SNCF measurements based on modern platforms. These ignored the many regional platforms, which were built more than 50 years ago, and which were bigger (trains being correspondingly narrower then). Construction work has begun on narrowing the platforms (which presumably entails not much more than bashing bits of concrete off the sides). But 1,000 platforms still need to be adjusted.
Fortunately, someone realised that there was a problem before the trains were delivered. But the story does highlight some of the difficulties of separating railway infrastructure from operations. My brother, who worked for the railways all his working life, always said that it was a mistake to separate the two. A railway is a complex organisation, and the various bits need to work with, and understand, the other bits.
Walter Blotscher
Wednesday, 21 May 2014
DANISH REFERENDA
Denmark's basic law (last amended in 1953 so that a woman could ascend the throne) provides for a referendum in certain situations. One of those is where sovereignty is ceded. Constitutional lawyers have held that the establishment of a European patent court involves a loss of sovereignty, so section 20 of the basic law comes into play. This does not automatically lead to a referendum, but the Parliamentary vote in favour of the new measure has to be passed by a super-majority of five sixths of all MP's for there not to be one. Since both the far-left Enhedslisten and far-right Danish People's Party are against the patent court, it was not possible for the bill to meet the super-majority test. Danes will, therefore, on Sunday both vote in the European elections and vote for or against the country's participation in the new patent court.
However, there is a further curiosity. The basic law also spells out what happens (as happened in this case) where there is a solid Parliamentary majority, but not a five sixths majority. If the referendum produces a majority in favour of the measure, then it is passed. But if the referendum produces a majority against the measure, it doesn't necessarily mean that the measure is dead. The no votes have to represent 30% of all eligible voters; which is a higher bar than a mere 50% of all people voting, whenever voter turnout is less than 60%.
What this means is that a measure can pass, even though there has been a referendum which produces a no vote (in the jargon, this is called a political no rather than a legal no), since the number of naysayers, though a majority, is not big enough. Given the fact that turnout in European elections is both low and falling over time, this outcome is quite possible this time. The monkey would then pass back to politicians, who would have to decide whether to heed the will of the people or heed the will of Parliament.
All of the major political parties are (of course) saying that they hope for a yes majority in the referendum, in which case the problem goes away. But if it doesn't, then discussions on Sunday evening could end up being quite interesting.
Walter Blotscher
Denmark's basic law (last amended in 1953 so that a woman could ascend the throne) provides for a referendum in certain situations. One of those is where sovereignty is ceded. Constitutional lawyers have held that the establishment of a European patent court involves a loss of sovereignty, so section 20 of the basic law comes into play. This does not automatically lead to a referendum, but the Parliamentary vote in favour of the new measure has to be passed by a super-majority of five sixths of all MP's for there not to be one. Since both the far-left Enhedslisten and far-right Danish People's Party are against the patent court, it was not possible for the bill to meet the super-majority test. Danes will, therefore, on Sunday both vote in the European elections and vote for or against the country's participation in the new patent court.
However, there is a further curiosity. The basic law also spells out what happens (as happened in this case) where there is a solid Parliamentary majority, but not a five sixths majority. If the referendum produces a majority in favour of the measure, then it is passed. But if the referendum produces a majority against the measure, it doesn't necessarily mean that the measure is dead. The no votes have to represent 30% of all eligible voters; which is a higher bar than a mere 50% of all people voting, whenever voter turnout is less than 60%.
What this means is that a measure can pass, even though there has been a referendum which produces a no vote (in the jargon, this is called a political no rather than a legal no), since the number of naysayers, though a majority, is not big enough. Given the fact that turnout in European elections is both low and falling over time, this outcome is quite possible this time. The monkey would then pass back to politicians, who would have to decide whether to heed the will of the people or heed the will of Parliament.
All of the major political parties are (of course) saying that they hope for a yes majority in the referendum, in which case the problem goes away. But if it doesn't, then discussions on Sunday evening could end up being quite interesting.
Walter Blotscher
Tuesday, 20 May 2014
MINES AND FLOODING
The floods in the former Yugoslavia are the worst ever recorded, the Sava river being particularly hard hit. Apart from the damage to buildings, people and livestock caused by the water, it has shifted many of the thousands of landmines remaining from the former civil war. Getting rid of mines whose position is known precisely is one thing; getting rid of mines that have floated off somewhere else is quite another matter.
For the people affected, this is not the first time that disaster has struck. It will not be easy to recover.
Walter Blotscher
The floods in the former Yugoslavia are the worst ever recorded, the Sava river being particularly hard hit. Apart from the damage to buildings, people and livestock caused by the water, it has shifted many of the thousands of landmines remaining from the former civil war. Getting rid of mines whose position is known precisely is one thing; getting rid of mines that have floated off somewhere else is quite another matter.
For the people affected, this is not the first time that disaster has struck. It will not be easy to recover.
Walter Blotscher
Monday, 19 May 2014
HOIST WITH HIS OWN PETARD
The other day I taught my English class the meaning of "hoist with his own petard". A petard was the mediæval prototype of a bomb, which was raised in a siege engine and flung over the walls of the town that was being besieged in the hope that it would explode on landing and do damage. Being hoist along with the bomb would not have been a good idea; so the expression has come to mean "to have to live with the consequences", even if they are unpleasant.
The expression could also be used in the context of Danish politics. Lars Løkke Rasmussen is desperately trying to portray the tax consequences of his many benefits-in-kind as a private matter, which has nothing to do with other politicians, voters, the media or anyone else. The problem is that when current Prime Minister Helle Thorning-Schmidt had tax issues some years ago (issues which are still being investigated today), Lars Løkke and his lieutenants were in the forefront of attempts to pressure her to make her tax affairs public. Pressure which won out in the end.
As the 16-year olds in my English class could now tell him, he is hoist with his own petard.
Walter Blotscher
The other day I taught my English class the meaning of "hoist with his own petard". A petard was the mediæval prototype of a bomb, which was raised in a siege engine and flung over the walls of the town that was being besieged in the hope that it would explode on landing and do damage. Being hoist along with the bomb would not have been a good idea; so the expression has come to mean "to have to live with the consequences", even if they are unpleasant.
The expression could also be used in the context of Danish politics. Lars Løkke Rasmussen is desperately trying to portray the tax consequences of his many benefits-in-kind as a private matter, which has nothing to do with other politicians, voters, the media or anyone else. The problem is that when current Prime Minister Helle Thorning-Schmidt had tax issues some years ago (issues which are still being investigated today), Lars Løkke and his lieutenants were in the forefront of attempts to pressure her to make her tax affairs public. Pressure which won out in the end.
As the 16-year olds in my English class could now tell him, he is hoist with his own petard.
Walter Blotscher
Sunday, 18 May 2014
COMMUTING
Compared with (say) the U.K., commuting in Denmark is relatively easy. I drive 44km to the school where I work; on good roads with little traffic, it takes me about half an hour. Traffic jams are non-existent.
Even so, the nature of commuting is changing here, particularly since the start of the financial crisis. Basically, the number of commutes has fallen, but their average length has risen, from 38km in 2008 to 43km today. As jobs have become scarce, particularly out in the sticks, so people have to travel to the big cities in order to work.
Walter Blotscher
Compared with (say) the U.K., commuting in Denmark is relatively easy. I drive 44km to the school where I work; on good roads with little traffic, it takes me about half an hour. Traffic jams are non-existent.
Even so, the nature of commuting is changing here, particularly since the start of the financial crisis. Basically, the number of commutes has fallen, but their average length has risen, from 38km in 2008 to 43km today. As jobs have become scarce, particularly out in the sticks, so people have to travel to the big cities in order to work.
Walter Blotscher
Saturday, 17 May 2014
DENMARK AND NORWAY (2)
Today is the 200th anniversary of the dissolution of the union between Noway and Denmark. As you might expect, the countries have different attitudes to it. In Norway hundreds of thousands of people lined the streets of Oslo in bright sunshine in a big folkefest; the speaker of the Danish Parliament became the first foreigner since Winston Churchill to address the Norwegian Parliament; the Danish queen will be part of the celebrations. Here in Denmark, on the other hand, it was barely mentioned.
Walter Blotscher
Today is the 200th anniversary of the dissolution of the union between Noway and Denmark. As you might expect, the countries have different attitudes to it. In Norway hundreds of thousands of people lined the streets of Oslo in bright sunshine in a big folkefest; the speaker of the Danish Parliament became the first foreigner since Winston Churchill to address the Norwegian Parliament; the Danish queen will be part of the celebrations. Here in Denmark, on the other hand, it was barely mentioned.
Walter Blotscher
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