Tuesday 28 July 2015

STOCKHOLM

My wife and I are going on a short holiday to Stockholm tomorrow. We are going by train, which is much nicer than flying (Stockholm airport is also a long way from the centre); and are renting an AirBnB apartment. I went to Stockholm on an interrail ticket when I was 17, and haven't really been back since, so I am really looking forward to it.

So, no blogging for a week or so. Back next week.

Walter Blotscher


Monday 27 July 2015

LIGHTNING

Lightning is a summer danger; more than 80% of all lightning strikes take place in the three summer months. In Denmark, some 4-5 people a year get hit by lightning, of which one every other year on average dies. Those who are hit, but survive, tend to have injuries to the nervous system, problems with sleep or memory loss, and increased blood pressure.

The electric shock in lightning can be up to a billion volts, and the temperature up to 30,000 degrees (five times that of the sun). It's no joke.

There are a lot of myths associated with lightning, notably that it's best to be out in the open when it happens. Metal boxes, such as cars and aeroplanes, conduct the electricity away from passengers and so are safe; as do buildings with both a roof and walls. The worst places are to stand underneath a tree or be in water; 50% of victims are in these places, compared with just 2% who are indoors.

Be warned!

Walter Blotscher

Sunday 26 July 2015

THE TOUR DE FRANCE (3)

Britain's Chris Froome won his second Tour de France, again (as in 2013) beating Nairo Quintana into second place, though this time by only a minute and twelve seconds. With no individual time trials other than the prologue, and lots of mountain finishes, the route was tailor-made for the Columbian climber. However, Froome rode away from the opposition on the first mountain stage in the Pyrenees, on a boiling hot afternoon the day after the first rest day. And although Quintana clawed back time on the last two stages in the Alps, including more than a minute on the legendary Alpe d'Huez climb, it wasn't enough to bridge the gap.

The mountain stages always get the attention in the Grand Tours. But as Quintana himself admitted, his real problem dated back to the very first stage. On a windy ride along the Dutch coast, he got caught behind a crash, his team could not bridge the gap, and he ended up losing a minute and twenty eight seconds, more than the eventual time difference. True, if that hadn't happened, then the race would have panned out differently. Nevertheless, it does illustrate once again the old saw that cycling is a team sport won by individuals.

As a fellow Brit, I should be cheering Froome on. However, there is something about him, as with other successful British sportsmen, that I just don't warm to. I wouldn't go so far as the Frenchmen who shouted in his face, or, in one instance, threw urine at him; but I certainly didn't want him to win. Perhaps it's the monotone way in which his Sky team race.

I would have much preferred Alberto Contador or last year's winner Vicenzo Nibali to win. Contador was going for the Giro-Tour double, and was the only one of the "big four" to have taken part in the earlier race. However, that was a gruelling slog against a very attacking Astana team; and although he won it, there simply wasn't enough time to recover and be competitive in the Tour against the very best. Nibali also suffered from the Giro, but in a different way. The remainder of his Astana team was definitely the second division of the squad, and was simply not strong enough to fight against Sky. Like Quintana, he missed the break on the first stage, and thereafter was always on the back foot.

Contador has already said that next year, he will concentrate exclusively on the Tour. If the other three all do the same, then we could be in for a great race.

Walter Blotscher

Saturday 25 July 2015

ADVERTS AGAINST REFUGEES

One of the ways in which Australia tries to discourage refugees is to produce adverts, which tell people in no uncertain terms that if they do turn up in Australian waters without the proper papers, then they won't be allowed to land, but will instead be taken to one of their offshore processing centres on Nairu or Papua New Guinea. The not so subtle message to people smugglers and migrants themselves is "you won't succeed, so don't bother trying".

The new Danish Government would like to try a variant of this. It is convinced that people come to Denmark (as opposed to another E.U. country) because of its extensive welfare state; and has even found a website comparing welfare benefits in the different E.U. countries as "proof" that this is true. The fact that professionals in this area cast doubt on that statement is dismissed as rubbish. Integration Minister Inge Støjbjerg now plans to take out announcements in foreign newspapers, highlighting the recent tightening in the asylum and refugee laws, which were passed just before the summer holidays. After reading these, potential asylum seekers will go elsewhere.

This may go down well with certain sections of the Danish electorate. But I doubt that it will have an effect. And in the long run, it will harm Denmark's image abroad.

Walter Blotscher

Thursday 23 July 2015

INTERNATIONAL OUTSOURCING

Public authorities have started outsourcing some of their operations in order to save money; and under E.U. law, if a contract is above a certain amount, then the tender process must be open to foreign companies. Yet outsourcing is not without its problems.

In the spring of 2014 the region (one of five) covering Fünen and southern Jutland issued a tender for a 10-year contract to run ambulance services, which had previously been run by the Danish company Falck. The tender was divided into four lots, covering each of the region's four main hospitals. Another Danish company won one of the tenders; the other three went to the Dutch company BIOS. Falck lost out in each case.

The region will pay roughly kr.490 million a year for the service, and will thereby save around kr.52 million a year, or roughly 10%, a saving not to be sniffed at.

The new service starts on 1 September, and here comes the problem. BIOS doesn't have, or cannot get hold of, enough Danish ambulance drivers to fulfil its contractual obligations. Its proposed solution is to employ a number of German drivers. However, not all of them speak Danish, or at least don't speak it very well. So the question becomes how well do you have to speak Danish in order to be able to carry out an important public service, which requires in part the ability to communicate in Danish?

Somewhat surprisingly perhaps, there is no clear answer to this question. People who are against BIOS say that the lack of fluent Danish speakers means that they should be barred from working. On the other hand, doctors don't have to pass a Danish test, and they need to communicate with patients at least as much as ambulance drivers.

What this episode shows is that money is not the only thing that matters, when it comes to having the private sector provide services for the public sector. Local authorities need to be careful in what is a potential minefield.

Walter Blotscher

Wednesday 22 July 2015

DANISH AGRICULTURE (7)

Danish agriculture may be a powerhouse, particularly in pig farming, but it is still covered by the thicket of rules that Danish society likes to put over everything. One rule was that only a qualified farmer could live in a farmhouse and work the land. Originally designed to prevent absentee landlords, it hampered development, since it was very difficult to get access to outside capital (either domestic or foreign). The farm had to be owned by a company, which could then issue shares to outside investors. However, there still had to be a resident farmer, and the farmer had to have a decisive voice in the running of the company. Outside investors were necessarily limited to being minority ones.

The last government realised that this was hampering development, and relaxed the rules. The new ones, which came into force on 1 January, retain the requirement for a farmer to live in the farmhouse. However, the farmer doesn't have to be the main owner; indeed, he doesn't have to own any of the farm at all, he can simply rent both the house and the land from an external investor, domestic or foreign.

Rich people from Holland, the rest of Scandinavia and Eastern Europe are already beginning to pile in. Although only six months old, the new rules are already leading to warnings of unfair competition that is making life difficult for young farmers to get on the ownership ladder. It is quite possible that there could be a backlash in future.

Walter Blotscher

Tuesday 21 July 2015

CINEMA TICKETS (2)

In an age where you have a choice of lots of T.V. channels, can stream a lot of things for free, or have access to Netflix or similar for a modest fee each month, it seems odd that cinemas in Denmark are doing well. Despite a hiccup last year (when the films weren't very good), ticket sales continue their upward trend, and are on course to hit 15 million this year.

We are seeing the benefits of this trend at the local cinema, where sales are up by almost 25% over last year. which makes my life as chairman a lot easier.

Walter Blotscher

Monday 20 July 2015

JORDAN SPIETH

The 21-year old wunderkind Jordan Spieth is the new star of world golf. Only one golfer in history has won the first three (of the four) majors of the year, Ben Hogan, back in 1953. This afternoon, at the British Open at St. Andrews, the home of golf, it looked as if history could repeat itself. Spieth had already won the Masters (convincingly) and the U.S.Open (less so, after Dustin Johnson three-putted the last, when one putt would have given him victory and two a play-off). Despite taking a double bogey on the par 3 eighth, a monster 30-foot putt on the sixteenth put Spieth into a share of the lead with two holes to play. Two holes at par, and he would go into a play-off; but if he parred the seventeenth and birdied the eighteenth, one of the easiest holes on the course, he would win.

He didn't. He bogeyed the seventeenth and missed his birdie putt on the eighteenth. And so the chance was gone. He will probably have nightmares about that eighth hole, since his tee shot landed on the green and he then four-putted. Despite that, I fully expect him to win more majors in the future, perhaps as early as the U.S. PGA championship in August.

And if Spieth is the new superstar of world golf, where does that leave the old one, Tiger Woods? Although Woods has won 14 majors, he hasn't won one since the 2008 U.S. Open, and has been plagued by injury. At St. Andrews, where he has won before, he missed the cut. All in all, it's looking increasingly likely that he won't win another.

Walter Blotscher

Sunday 19 July 2015

GREECE (10)

I have to say that I don't understand Greece; or, to be more precise, the Greek Government. Having negotiated about the country's debt for more than 5 months with its colleagues in the rest of the E.U., it rejected their final offer, just before the legal basis for that offer ran out on 30 June. It did put that offer to a referendum the following Sunday, though it also passionately urged the Greek electorate to reject it. Which they did, with a thumping 61% majority.

(As an aside, although it was very clear what the Greek electorate were saying no to, it was not at all clear what they were saying yes to. Normally in a referendum, it is quite clear what the results mean. The Scots were asked whether they wanted to be independent and they said no, meaning that they wanted to remain part of the United Kingdom. The forthcoming British referendum on the E.U. will ask whether the U.K. should remain part of the E.U. If the answer is no, then that will mean that the E.U. will leave. By contrast, the meaning of the Greek no, other than "we don't like that offer" was obscure.)

Anyway, armed with that domestic support for its line, the Greek Government made an offer to the rest of the E.U. that was worse than the one that they had just offered it, and which the referendum had just rejected. Even more bizarrely, it then accepted a counter-offer from the E.U. that was even worse than that one. Without doubt, the progressive tightening of the screws was due to other countries' exasperation with the Greek government; but I still don't understand the strategy. Besides which, the deal (which included a hike in VAT to 23%, close to Danish levels, and other unpalatable measures) still had to be approved by the Greek Parliament, and within three days. Nor surprisingly, a number of the Government's own supporters voted against it, though the measures did get through.

There is a case for arguing against German-induced austerity, and better economists than me have already made it. There is also a strong case for modernising and restructuring the Greek economy. Against that background, the new Government had in January a very good argument for a combination of relief and gradual reform, based in part on the true statement "look, the mess had nothing to do with us". Six months later, Greece has had to accept terms which most other countries would have rejected as an infringement of their sovereignty. For that, Greek voters have to thank their Government.  

Walter Blotscher

Saturday 18 July 2015

SUMMER HOUSES (2)

Despite the fact that owning a summer house is very important for many Danes, the market has been in the doldrums for the past decade. The number of summer houses sold peaked in 2005 at just over 7,000, before collapsing to below 4,000 in 2008. Even though this year has been good so far, the total is still below 6,000.

With respect to prices, the figures are even worse. At the peak, summer houses were selling on average for around kr.18.000 per square meter. Since then there has been a steady decline down to around kr.13.000 per square meter.

As always, some parts of the country are doing better than others. Demand and prices around Copenhagen and Aarhus are strong, those in West Jutland and some of the islands are weak.

Walter Blotscher

Thursday 16 July 2015

MOTORCYCLE GANGS

Motorcycle gangs (known as "rocker groups" in Danish) are one of those things that get certain politicians frothing at the mouth and slightly mad. If you listen to them, then Denmark is covered in large men with leather jackets and custom-made motorbikes. Plus a mass of crime.

Having said that, it does seem as if motorcycle gangs are increasing. There have long been Hell's Angels and Bandidos; then came immigrant gangs, mainly in Copenhagen, and Satudarah from Holland Now, however, two new gangs have crossed the border from Germany, Gremium and United Tribuns Forever.

Police are worried that more gangs will mean more fights between them, particularly shootings. There was a wave of shootings in 2013, more than 50 in total, but that fell to just 16 last year. It could well rise again.

Walter Blotscher

Wednesday 15 July 2015

A TALE OF TWO CHERRY TREES (3)

My surviving cherry tree is now over three metres high and has lots of branches, which suggests that it likes the ground it is standing in. Last year it gave a minimal two cherries; this year there are more.

The problem is that "more" still means only about six. That is either three times better than last year or still not a very good result for a four-year old tree. As an optimist, I am choosing to concentrate on the former!

Walter Blotscher

Tuesday 14 July 2015

A LOT OF WOOD (2)

Now that summer is here, I have begun my holiday project, namely cutting up the two huge trees that are lying on my back lawn so that we can use the wood in our stove.

The first task has been to cut off all the small branches that I don't want, and make a big pile of it that I will burn. I have finished one of the trees, and will complete the other this weekend. Then I will get out my chainsaw and go slightly amok.

Walter Blotscher

Monday 13 July 2015

CORPORATE TAXES (3)

As part of a growth package two years ago, the Danish Government decided to cut the rate of corporation tax from the then 25% to 22%. This was not done immediately; in 2014 it was reduced to 24.5%, this year it's 23.5%, and it will go down to 22% next year.

As I said in an earlier post, if all flows into and out of a company (sales, wages, purchases, investments, dividends etc) are taxed, it's not at all clear that there is any point in taxing what remains, namely a company's profits. However, what is undeniably true is that in the absence of a worldwide move to abandon taxes on corporate profits, it matters to companies, and in particular to international companies, what the rates are in different countries.

Those rates vary quite a lot. In 2014, within the E.U., it varied from 35% in Malta, 33.99% in Belgium and 33.33% in France to 15% in Lithuania and Latvia, 12.5% in Ireland and Cyprus, and 10% in Bulgaria. Retaining an additional 25% of your profit instead of giving it to the taxman (however worthwhile that might be) is a hefty bonus. Assuming of course that you can make money in Bulgaria.

The U.K., which had a rate of 21% in 2014, is cutting it to 20% this year and 18% in 2020; other countries are thinking of doing the same. In general, the trend over the past 20 years has been downward. Though whether it will reach zero is a different matter entirely.

Walter Blotscher

Sunday 12 July 2015

A GOOD DAY (2)

I had a good day today. 8 hours uninterrupted sleep. Then I made tea for my wife and guest. Breakfast in bed, reading the paper and my new book. Three hours of mowing and tidying up in the garden. An hour on the bike in my new kit. The Wimbledon tennis final, with smoked salmon and strawberries. Dinner, followed by a film.

The only blemish was the fact that Roger Federer lost to Novak Djokovic. Otherwise a very good day.

Walter Blotscher

Saturday 11 July 2015

GOVERNMENT TRIALS

The new Danish minority government survived its first crisis yesterday. Each spring and summer, the government negotiates a deal with KL, the organisation that represents the country's 92 kommuner (local authorities) and 5 regions, on the amount of money available from central government to help fund their activities. On the basis of this deal, the local institutions prepare detailed budgets in the autumn that form the basis for what they do the following year. But before they do so, the deal has to be approved by the national Parliament's finance committee.

Being a right-of-centre minority government, this year's deal called for efficiency savings of 1% p.a. for the next 4 years. Since the four parties in the "blue" block have a (narrow) majority in Parliament - and so in the finance committee - the deal ought to have sailed through. However, when it came to the vote yesterday, the Conservatives balked, because the deal allowed the local authority land tax to rise.

The Conservatives had a dreadful election, and are close to extinction. Virtually the only distinctive policy they had was to freeze the land tax (a tax on the value of land alone, without buildings), on the grounds that it would give people financial security. Voting to implement a deal which drove a coach and horses through that promise would in their view have shredded what little credibility they still have. So they decided to vote against the deal in the finance committee.

End of government? No. The Government reached across the aisle and got support from the opposition Social Democrats and Radicals. So the local government deal was done.

Why did the opposition not take the opportunity to bring down the Government? The reasons are complicated, but demonstrate how things work in a decentralised society. First, to bring down the Government, you need a vote of confidence; in the event that such a vote was called, the election result (90-89 to the blue block) would come into play. Secondly, local authorities are a mixed bag of left-of-centre and right-of-centre organisations. If they (collectively) have done a deal with the government of the day, then it is an unwritten rule of Danish politics that that deal should be supported by the opposition, even if the deal includes things that they are against. Which is why the Social Democrats and Radicals have not only agreed to support this year's deal, but also any other deals that this government might make during its term.

In other words, the Conservatives may have saved their sacred cow, but at the expense of looking narrowly self-interested. While the Social Democrats and Radicals have ended up looking statesmanlike.

Walter Blotscher

Friday 10 July 2015

CREATIONISM

Can you be at one and the same time a creationist who takes the bible literally and the person in charge of a country's science and research efforts? That question has occupied a lot of newspaper coverage this week, as the Danish press have focussed on the fact that the new Minister for Higher Education and Research, Esben Lund Larsen, has an advanced degree in theology and fervently believes that God created the world in 6 days.

This being Denmark, such views will not lead to his instant dismissal. However, it is still a question worth asking. Being a scientist does not rule out being religious, in the sense of believing in a higher being, afterlife or whatever. But I think it is fair to say that the overwhelming majority of scientists would state that the creation story in the bible is just that, namely an allegorical story; and that the world is much, much older than the 6,000 years or so that Archbishop Usher and others have worked out that the bible says it is.

After an initial flurry of excitement, things will settle down until such time as Mr. Larsen decides to make changes to the institutions that fall within his ministerial empire. In the meantime, he will be carefully watched.

Walter Blotscher

Thursday 9 July 2015

FRUIT FLIES

The humble fruit fly is useful if you want to do genetic analysis, but it is a right pain if you live in an ordinary house in a Danish summer. Being so small, it is almost impossible to keep them out of the house if you buy fruit of any kind. And because they lay so many eggs in a short life-cycle that lasts only a few days, one fly can quickly lead to a lot more.

My wife attempted a solution today, whereby she opened all the windows in the kitchen and hoped that the strong wind would blow the fruit flies outside. It failed.

Walter Blotscher

Wednesday 8 July 2015

RYANAIR (2)

One of the curiosities about the spat at Copenhagen Airport between Ryanair and the Danish trade unions is Billund. Ryanair has operated a base in Denmark at Billund Airport for three years, and to the satisfaction of both customers and the airport itself; yet, in line with its normal corporate policy, the company has never entered into a collective bargaining agreement with the unions at Billund.

The reason is that the unions are much stronger at Copenhagen, which is the hub for the whole of Scandinavia. However, now that the dispute is out in the open, the unions are demanding that Ryanair enter into collective bargaining agreements at both airports, otherwise there will be strikes.

Ryanair's response to that is the same as that at Copenhagen, namely that they would rather dismantle their base, and fly to the airport from a foreign base, than sign collective bargaining agreements. My guess is that this is not an empty threat, but that they mean it. In which case, the net result of the dispute will not just be the loss of jobs in the capital, but the loss of even more jobs (19 pilots and 45 cabin staff) in the middle of Jutland.

One thing to note in this saga is that the trade unions concerned do not currently represent any of Ryanair's employees, and that none of Ryanair's employees have asked for help from any of the unions in obtaining a collective bargaining agreement. Nor is it the case that Ryanair has any problem recruiting in Denmark. Against that background, I am not surprised that Ryanair have called the labour court's decision crazy.

Walter Blotscher

Tuesday 7 July 2015

BASHING REFUGEES AND ASYLUM SEEKERS

There wasn't much time for the new Danish Government to do anything before going off for the Parliamentary summer holiday. But one thing they rushed through was a scheme to cut in half the benefits given to refugees and asylum seekers.

Denmark gets quite a lot of asylum seekers. Per million of its population there were 2,615 in 2014, well above the E.U. average of 1,237, and on a par with Germany (though less than Hungary, with 4,331 and much less than neighbouring Sweden with 8,432). Politicians say that they come to Denmark because of the high level of benefits here. This is not really true. Hungary has much lower levels of benefits, and has a lot more asylum seekers. So too does neighbouring Germany, and it has more than 10 times as many asylum seekers in absolute terms. But the idea that asylum seekers are really just scrounging foreigners bleeding a rich society dry plays well amongst some sections of the population, and doing something about it was one of the main themes of the general election campaign.

The change cuts the benefit for refugees and asylum seekers in half, to the same level as that for students. However, this is a false comparison, since students get access to cheap accommodation and transport, can work without losing benefits, can take out loans to top up their benefits, and (crucially) often get help from their parents. None of these are available to asylum seekers.

The consensus amongst those who work with refugees is that they don't come to Denmark because of the level of benefits; other factors such as free healthcare and schooling are much more important. So cutting benefits will not limit the stream, it will simply make the people who do come poorer than they otherwise would have been. The new benefit level is, after all, well below Denmark's official poverty line.

Furthermore, although the measure affects only new applicants, the Government will after the summer holiday seek to apply it retrospectively to any refugees who have been in the country for seven years or less. That will have absolutely nothing to do with limiting the stream of newcomers, but will be a straight cut. This will not be good.

Walter Blotscher

Monday 6 July 2015

MOLE WARFARE (15)

This morning I found something in my garden that I haven't seen for a very long time, namely a molehill.

He has probably wandered in from the wood. My strategically placed dead moles might well get him to think again and retreat. If not, then my traps are ready and waiting. Either way, the eventual outcome will not be in doubt, my lawn will be protected.

Walter Blotscher

Saturday 4 July 2015

GAY MARRIAGE (3)

One of the criticisms of the common law tradition is that unelected judges sometimes end up making laws. That is unfair, in my view. Because laws are written in words, and because words can be unclear, someone has to decide exactly what those words mean at times. That is what has just happened in the U.S. Supreme Court's decision that gay marriage is protected by the constitution. Or, to make it more legally precise, bans on gay marriage are unconstitutional.

Gay marriage is not mentioned in the U.S. constitution, and it's pretty certain that the Founding Fathers did not discuss it. Indeed, as Chief Justice Roberts noted in oral arguments, up until relatively recently, virtually nobody considered the word "marriage" to mean anything other than a union between a man and a woman. However, the constitution does state two things pretty clearly. First, that everyone is entitled to "equal protection" under the law; and secondly, that states within the U.S. federal system are obliged to respect the decisions of other states (eg if someone is convicted of a crime in Vermont, then California should recognise them as a criminal as well). Given that 36 states and the District of Columbia already recognise gay marriage, the combination of these two principles led the Supreme Court to rule that bans on it were unconstitutional. Nevertheless, is is a sign of the reluctance of judges to "make law" that the decision had the narrowest possible 5-4 majority.

Despite that, I predict that the furore about gay marriage will die quite quickly. It helps that, as I pointed out earlier, allowing gay marriage does not do any harm to anyone ordinarily married. It also helps that Americans' acceptance of gay marriage has changed so rapidly in recent years. Neither of these factors apply to (say) abortion, which remains hugely contentious in the United States, even though the Supreme Court ruled it constitutional as long ago as 1973. That decision did not just require application of the equal protection provisions, but the finding of a principle of "privacy" within the constitution that many judicial commentators do not believe exists.

The Supreme Court's ruling applies only to civil marriages, and has nothing to do with marriage in church. That presumably will remain as it is today, with churches free to limit marriage as they see fit. Against that background, marriage in the U.S. has in many ways reverted to the way it used to be a long time ago. Before the Hildebrand revolution in the papacy in the mid 11th century, people essentially married themselves; a verbal commitment witnessed by two others was enough. True, many marriages took place at the church door; but that was so they could be blessed by the priest afterwards, not because the priest was needed in the first place. The church spied an opportunity to become involved in the most intimate part of people's lives, and exploited it to the full, to the extent that many of the people most opposed to gay marriage today are religious conservatives. When those people rant against the extra-judicial powers supposedly assumed by the Supreme Court, they should be a bit more willing to remember their ecclesiastical history and the extra-doctrinal powers definitely assumed by the church.    

Walter Blotscher

Friday 3 July 2015

UNDERDOGS

People love underdogs in sport, and nobody loves underdogs more than the Brits. Particularly at Wimbledon, a curious mixture of a world-class tennis tournament in which British players rarely, if ever, do well.

Tonight I watched Heather Watson take on Serena Williams on Centre Court. Watson is the number one British player, but is still ranked only in the lower 50's in the world. Williams on the other hand is indisputably the world's number one, one of the best players ever (and certainly the strongest), and unbeaten in a grand slam tournament since Wimbledon last year. To put the odds even more in her favour, no British woman has beaten the world's number one player since Sue Barker beat Chris Evert way back in 1979!

Yet it's amazing what can happen when you have 15,000 partisan supporters cheering on your every shot. Williams won the first set easily 6-2, and looked to be cruising to victory in the second. Then Watson stepped up her game, the crowd got behind her, and she nicked the second. The crowd went nuts. In the decisive third, she broke Williams twice (itself an achievement), lost the plot, came back again, and found herself serving for the match at 5-4. Could Watson do it? From the quiet of my living room, you could feel those 15,000 people willing her to scrape together those four points. However, there's a reason why Williams is the world number one, she pulled some rabbits out of the hat, saved the game, and eventually won 7-5.

It was great to watch!

Walter Blotscher

Thursday 2 July 2015

CUBA

The announcement that Cuba and the United States will reopen embassies on each other's territory is a welcome development. One can discuss whether economic blockades or sanctions work (some think that international sanctions against South Africa helped end apartheid, some don't). But what is undoubtedly true is that the economic blockade against Cuba first announced in October 1960 has been a complete failure. The only effect has been to make Cubans poorer than they otherwise would have been, which is the exact opposite of what was intended.

That this has happened is due entirely to the fact that President Barack Obama is beginning to enter his "lame duck" phase, as candidates jostle to replace him in 18 months time. Any discussion of relaxing the embargo - let alone attempt to do so - has met with hostile resistance from the Cuban exile community, who are hugely influential in the key swing state of Florida. However, Mr. Obama no longer needs or cares about them, so sensible measures can finally take place.

What happens next is a bit uncertain. However, as more people visit Cuba and vice versa, so Cuba will slowly stop being an oddball place and more of a normal country.

Walter Blotscher

Wednesday 1 July 2015

RYANAIR 

Ryanair has been a boon for Danish air travellers. My wife tells me that when she was young, in the days when SAS and British Airways had a cosy duopoly, it was cheaper to fly from Copenhagen to New York and then to London, than to fly direct. The first time I flew here, for Christmas 1986, it cost me £450 in a little propeller-driven plane from Southend to Billund. Nowadays I can fly with Ryanair from Billund to Stansted in a jet for under Dkr.450, a tenth of the price in nominal terms and less than that in real terms.

Billund is a Ryanair base, and the airline has done well there. However, the airport there is in the middle of nowhere, and Ryanair has always viewed it as a first step on the way to Copenhagen, which is bigger, very efficient and the hub for the rest of Scandinavia. In March this year they started using Copenhagen as a base, with flights to London Luton, Warsaw and Milan, and I have used it a couple of times (both Luton and Stansted are awful, but Copenhagen has the advantage of a train service, so you don't have to pay for a week's car parking). However, that development was challenged in court by the Danish trade unions, who were appalled by Ryanair's refusal to sign a collective bargaining agreement with any of them, which they said was illegal.

Today Denmark's labour court agreed. Since this is their standard policy around Europe, that decision is a big blow for Ryanair. Their immediate response was to dismantle Copenhagen as a base, while continuing to service it from abroad (in other words, planes will not overnight and start from Copenhagen, but overnight and start from Luton, Warsaw and Milan). This is quite possible, though undoubtedly second best in terms of attracting business travellers.

It is also a big blow for Danish consumers, who like the company's cheap prices, even if they don't particularly like its business practices.

Is it also a big blow for Danish trade unions, given that those permanent base jobs will now disappear? Slave labour, the unions reply, and so not ones that we want. A principled stand, but not one in Denmark's long-term interest, in my view. If Copenhagen won't be a Ryanair base, then Warsaw will. Not all competition comes from China.

Walter Blotscher