ROME
My wife and I spent five days in Rome last week. I haven't blogged on it before now, since I have spent most of this week digesting it.
It was amazing, "stupenda", "incredibile". If you are remotely interested in history, which I am, then it is very special to be in a city which has a continuous history of more than 2,750 years, 1,000 of which were spent at the heart of an empire which has brought so much to my culture, and 2,000 of which have been dominated by perhaps the most continuously successful organisation in the western world, namely the Catholic church. Indeed, those two things are related, since much of the church's success came from appropriating aspects of the imperial past which suited it. Not least its buildings; mediæval popes didn't have much time for pagan ancestors, but they appreciated a good bit of marble when they saw it. Pope Sixtus IV built the Sistine Chapel in the Vatican using bricks nicked from the Baths of Caracalla; while Benini's famous marble columns in St. Peter's Square came from the Forum and other Roman places. Many, though not all, of the Roman ruins, including the Coliseum, are in brick, since the marble cladding and niche statues that would have adorned them were pilfered long ago. As our entertaining guide at the Coliseum put it succinctly, the only well-preserved Roman buildings in Rome are ones that have a cross on the top. They include the Senate building; but that was because it became a church (though it no longer is).
The original Roman settlement was on three of the seven hills, and the obvious place for everyone to meet was in the valley between them, in what eventually became the Forum. At the time it was a marshy swamp. But that didn't deter them; they simply dug a canal down to the Tiber and drained it. When the population of Rome fell drastically during the Dark Ages, the canal filled with silt, and backed up, covering the original ruins and leaving them deserted, except for enterprising builders looking for bits of old marble. It took Napoleon to recognise their potential value, and he was the first to organise their systematic excavation. The work has been going on ever since.
The Romans were a clever lot. They had invented water-resistant cement, and knew how to build arches in brick and stone, thereby allowing them to build huge buildings and decorate them. Aquaducts and underfloor heating (take note, British housebuilders) were a piece of cake, as were straight roads. Of course, it helped to have a lot of slaves around to do the heavy lifting - of an estimated population at its height of 1-1.5 million, up to 500,000 were slaves - but if you were not one of them, then life must have been pretty cushy. A free trip to the baths every day, followed by free entertainment in the Coliseum (animal or gladiator fights) or at the Circus Maximus (chariot racing), all the while eating free food paid for by the state. Money was so unnecessary that some people were paid in salt (the origin of the English word "salary" and Danish word "salær"). Yet the system contained the seeds of its own destruction. Having built his colossal baths, bigger than a modern football stadium, Caracalla disastrously extended Roman citizenship to everyone in the Empire. Not surprisingly, lots of barbarians on the outside wanted to get in; and since it was difficult to find enough auxiliaries to keep them out, the whole system was doomed to collapse.
Out of that collapse, the Jesus cult headed by the Bishop of Rome managed to restore the city to its former glory. At the start, its assets seemed unpromising; the Emperor Constantine donated the land used to build the church of St. John Lateran, still the cathedral church of the city, before haring off to found Constantinople, and Rome had a prestige associated with being the place of martyrdom for St. Paul and (especially) St. Peter. But there were hardly any people around - the population fell to between 50,000 and 70,000 - Italy was a political mess, and the early Popes had none of the military resources needed to succeed.
However, like the Chinese Communist Party, the Popes were masters at taking a long view. Claims were never abandoned, even if they could not be supported for hundreds of years. An ever increasing number of people found that it made more sense to worship one God than many, bringing new customers. Islam helped by removing competing centres of religious supremacy such as Jerusalem, Anitoch and Alexandria from Christian control. A succession of tough men hammered out a consistent message, which stressed imperial ideas such as hierarchy, and unswerving obedience to the man at the top. A thousand years later, Rome was again one of the great cities of the world.
Going round some of those splendours, such as the Sistine Chapel, the church of St. John Lateran, and the 23,000 sqm basilica of St. Peter's, I couldn't help being impressed. Side chapels that are as large and imposing as a whole church in Denmark, huge organs, fantastic works of art by some of the world's most famous painters. And yet. Somehow, it didn't feel any more holy than (say) the tiny Saxon church that I once visited on the shore of Essex. Indeed, it seemed less a tribute to the glory of God and more a tribute to the glory of the individual Pope that had built it. No wonder Martin Luther, an austere monk from a cold, northern climate, got annoyed at the Papacy when he visited Rome. All those wasted economic resources.
With three whole days to explore, we spent the first in the Vatican and the second in the Coliseum and other ruins. On the third day, we did a mixture of both. Rome is easy to get around, and we had plenty of stops for coffee, and plenty of cheap meals in family restaurants in the evening. Thinking back on it, I suppose I have merely whetted my appetite for a return visit.
Walter Blotscher
Friday 28 February 2014
Thursday 27 February 2014
CHILD BENEFIT
Most countries with a welfare system have some form of child benefit. Children, by definition, are judged not capable of looking after themselves, so there is broad agreement that this is a group that the state should support. Sometimes the benefit is taxed in the hands of the recipient; more often it is not. In most countries, it is paid to the mother, on the grounds that mothers more often look after children than fathers.
As I have mentioned before in this blog, Danish politicians of all stripes are terrified (or, perhaps more truthfully, pretend to be terrified) of welfare tourism, whereby workers from other countries come here simply in order to take advantage of the country's generous benefits. Child benefit is not in fact huge, by Danish standards, the maximum for a 2-year old is kr.17.616 a year; but it is quite large by (say) Romanian standards. So there need to be restrictions on who can get it, otherwise hordes of Romanians and other undesirables will come here to sponge off the state and send money back to Romania, thereby impoverishing Denmark. I have never bought this argument, not least because it ignores completely how much the Romanian worker contributes to the Danish state (all studies show that there is a net positive benefit to Denmark); but it seems to go down well with the Danish public. So from 1 January 2012 it has been the case that child benefit had to be earned over a 2-year period. Only after that time could a foreign worker have the right to 100% child benefit, before that it would be earned gradually (25% after 6 months, 50% after 1 year etc).
Into this domestic decision stepped the E.U. Commission. Last summer it wrote to the Danish Government, saying that the "earn" principle was against E.U. law. In order to protect the concept of the free movement of labour, foreign workers had to be able to have the same rights in a foreign country that they would have in their host country. So if a Romanian had the right to child benefit in Romania, then they should have the right to child benefit from day 1 in Denmark, even if the child in question remained in Romania.
On receipt of the letter, the current Government immediately changed its administrative policy, and with retrospective effect, all the way back to 1 January 2012. However, that still left Danish law out of kilter with what the Commission had said the law should be. So this week the Government tabled a change to bring Danish law back into line.
This was the equivalent of hitting a wasps' nest with a stick. For although the total amounts are quite small, a lot of people, and not just politicians, have an interest in using the "money flowing out of the country" argument to pursue another agenda. Anybody against the E.U., for instance; trade unions against foreign workers; anybody against the Government; and so on. Even more sober folk such as the opposition Venstre say that the Government should test the Commission's argument in an E.U. case, despite the legal advice's being that the Commission would win hands down. They know that such a case would take at least two years to come to a decision, by which time the next Danish general election will have been decided and they will (it is hoped) be in power.
This incident is part of a trend that is becoming increasingly prevalent in Europe; the E.U. is a good thing, but only if it brings benefits for me. The Commission is trying desperately to point out that if everybody carries out cherry-picking, then by definition the whole point of the E.U. falls apart. But in Denmark, as elsewhere, a lot of people don't appear to be listening.
Walter Blotscher
Most countries with a welfare system have some form of child benefit. Children, by definition, are judged not capable of looking after themselves, so there is broad agreement that this is a group that the state should support. Sometimes the benefit is taxed in the hands of the recipient; more often it is not. In most countries, it is paid to the mother, on the grounds that mothers more often look after children than fathers.
As I have mentioned before in this blog, Danish politicians of all stripes are terrified (or, perhaps more truthfully, pretend to be terrified) of welfare tourism, whereby workers from other countries come here simply in order to take advantage of the country's generous benefits. Child benefit is not in fact huge, by Danish standards, the maximum for a 2-year old is kr.17.616 a year; but it is quite large by (say) Romanian standards. So there need to be restrictions on who can get it, otherwise hordes of Romanians and other undesirables will come here to sponge off the state and send money back to Romania, thereby impoverishing Denmark. I have never bought this argument, not least because it ignores completely how much the Romanian worker contributes to the Danish state (all studies show that there is a net positive benefit to Denmark); but it seems to go down well with the Danish public. So from 1 January 2012 it has been the case that child benefit had to be earned over a 2-year period. Only after that time could a foreign worker have the right to 100% child benefit, before that it would be earned gradually (25% after 6 months, 50% after 1 year etc).
Into this domestic decision stepped the E.U. Commission. Last summer it wrote to the Danish Government, saying that the "earn" principle was against E.U. law. In order to protect the concept of the free movement of labour, foreign workers had to be able to have the same rights in a foreign country that they would have in their host country. So if a Romanian had the right to child benefit in Romania, then they should have the right to child benefit from day 1 in Denmark, even if the child in question remained in Romania.
On receipt of the letter, the current Government immediately changed its administrative policy, and with retrospective effect, all the way back to 1 January 2012. However, that still left Danish law out of kilter with what the Commission had said the law should be. So this week the Government tabled a change to bring Danish law back into line.
This was the equivalent of hitting a wasps' nest with a stick. For although the total amounts are quite small, a lot of people, and not just politicians, have an interest in using the "money flowing out of the country" argument to pursue another agenda. Anybody against the E.U., for instance; trade unions against foreign workers; anybody against the Government; and so on. Even more sober folk such as the opposition Venstre say that the Government should test the Commission's argument in an E.U. case, despite the legal advice's being that the Commission would win hands down. They know that such a case would take at least two years to come to a decision, by which time the next Danish general election will have been decided and they will (it is hoped) be in power.
This incident is part of a trend that is becoming increasingly prevalent in Europe; the E.U. is a good thing, but only if it brings benefits for me. The Commission is trying desperately to point out that if everybody carries out cherry-picking, then by definition the whole point of the E.U. falls apart. But in Denmark, as elsewhere, a lot of people don't appear to be listening.
Walter Blotscher
Wednesday 26 February 2014
CHAMPIONS' LEAGUE (3)
The Champions' League is where you see the difference in style between English and continental football. Although the Premier League is an exciting affair played at 100 mph, it is not always that technically skilful. Continental football teams often make the Brits look like oafs.
Judging from this week's last-16 matches, it's the continentals that have the upper hand. Manchester City and Arsenal both lost at home, and Manchester United away, in all three cases well beaten by Barcelona, holders Bayern Munich and Olympiakos respectively. Only Chelsea, whom I'm watching as I write, seem to have the match of Galatasary.
I watched the last 20 minutes of the Arsenal-Bayern match in a hotel room in Rome last week. Arsenal were admittedly a man down at that stage; but even so, they hardly touched the ball. My prediction for this year's World Cup is that it won't be Ingerland that win it.
Walter Blotscher
The Champions' League is where you see the difference in style between English and continental football. Although the Premier League is an exciting affair played at 100 mph, it is not always that technically skilful. Continental football teams often make the Brits look like oafs.
Judging from this week's last-16 matches, it's the continentals that have the upper hand. Manchester City and Arsenal both lost at home, and Manchester United away, in all three cases well beaten by Barcelona, holders Bayern Munich and Olympiakos respectively. Only Chelsea, whom I'm watching as I write, seem to have the match of Galatasary.
I watched the last 20 minutes of the Arsenal-Bayern match in a hotel room in Rome last week. Arsenal were admittedly a man down at that stage; but even so, they hardly touched the ball. My prediction for this year's World Cup is that it won't be Ingerland that win it.
Walter Blotscher
Tuesday 25 February 2014
INTERPRETING
I have a part-time job as an interpreter. My son used to work for a company that finds and organises the interpreters for the likes of social authorities, and he asked me if I wanted to do it from time to time. So far I have done a Danish-English job and translated a Latvian English letter into Danish. Today was going to be a Danish-French job; but the French people concerned turned out to be able to speak Danish, so all I had to do was sit around and partake of the excellent coffee and cake. Easy work!
Walter Blotscher
I have a part-time job as an interpreter. My son used to work for a company that finds and organises the interpreters for the likes of social authorities, and he asked me if I wanted to do it from time to time. So far I have done a Danish-English job and translated a Latvian English letter into Danish. Today was going to be a Danish-French job; but the French people concerned turned out to be able to speak Danish, so all I had to do was sit around and partake of the excellent coffee and cake. Easy work!
Walter Blotscher
Monday 24 February 2014
UKRAINE
What is one to make of the goings-on in Ukraine? It does seem incredible that things can happen today in Europe - political unrest, violent demonstrations, killings by security forces - which are more normally associated with Egypt, Thailand, or Libya.
I think that the key word in that paragraph is Europe. For while the northern, southern and western borders of Europe have been settled for a long time, the eastern one has always been, and (crucially) remains, much more fluid. The word Ukraine itself means border, a big wodge of land between two even bigger blocks of land, namely the E.U. and Russia. Indeed, a large part of the conflict there seems to be between the Ukrainian-speaking population, who want to move closer to, and eventually become part of, the E.U., and the Russian-speaking population, who look to their fellow-speakers even further east.
At the moment, it seems that the pro-E.U. forces have won. Politically, I think that that move is decisive. However, Russia can still cause a lot of problems economically, notably by cutting off the gas supply, on which Ukraine depends. The price of not doing so may be the secession of the eastern part of the country to be swallowed back into Russia.
The splitting up of a European country? Well, Czechoslovakia did it. So too did Yugoslavia, and then Serbia. Scotland is trying to do it as we speak. Ukraine may merely be the latest.
Walter Blotscher
What is one to make of the goings-on in Ukraine? It does seem incredible that things can happen today in Europe - political unrest, violent demonstrations, killings by security forces - which are more normally associated with Egypt, Thailand, or Libya.
I think that the key word in that paragraph is Europe. For while the northern, southern and western borders of Europe have been settled for a long time, the eastern one has always been, and (crucially) remains, much more fluid. The word Ukraine itself means border, a big wodge of land between two even bigger blocks of land, namely the E.U. and Russia. Indeed, a large part of the conflict there seems to be between the Ukrainian-speaking population, who want to move closer to, and eventually become part of, the E.U., and the Russian-speaking population, who look to their fellow-speakers even further east.
At the moment, it seems that the pro-E.U. forces have won. Politically, I think that that move is decisive. However, Russia can still cause a lot of problems economically, notably by cutting off the gas supply, on which Ukraine depends. The price of not doing so may be the secession of the eastern part of the country to be swallowed back into Russia.
The splitting up of a European country? Well, Czechoslovakia did it. So too did Yugoslavia, and then Serbia. Scotland is trying to do it as we speak. Ukraine may merely be the latest.
Walter Blotscher
Sunday 23 February 2014
SPEED SKATING
Some countries are naturally good at certain sports; Norway at cross-country skiing, for instance, Britain at rowing, Denmark at handball. But the title for absolute world domination must surely be the Netherlands at speed skating, as the just-finished Winter Olympics in Sochi clearly demonstrate.
In speed skating, there are six disciplines for each of the men and women, so 12 events in all. The Dutch won 8 of the 12, and 23 of the 36 medals on offer; the next best country was Poland, with 3. In four of them, they won all three medals, and in three others they won two; indeed, there wasn't an event in which they didn't win a medal. They also set five of the six Olympic records during the week.
In reality, it was 23 out of 32 medals, since two of the events were team pursuit competitions, where each nation fielded only one team (the Dutch won both). They would probably have won all three medals if they had been allowed to have B and C teams, such is their strength in depth.
I suppose it helps if you live in a cold northern climate, where half the land area is below sea level. Even so, it was a crushing performance, which is unlikely to be repeated in any sport, ever.
Walter Blotscher
Some countries are naturally good at certain sports; Norway at cross-country skiing, for instance, Britain at rowing, Denmark at handball. But the title for absolute world domination must surely be the Netherlands at speed skating, as the just-finished Winter Olympics in Sochi clearly demonstrate.
In speed skating, there are six disciplines for each of the men and women, so 12 events in all. The Dutch won 8 of the 12, and 23 of the 36 medals on offer; the next best country was Poland, with 3. In four of them, they won all three medals, and in three others they won two; indeed, there wasn't an event in which they didn't win a medal. They also set five of the six Olympic records during the week.
In reality, it was 23 out of 32 medals, since two of the events were team pursuit competitions, where each nation fielded only one team (the Dutch won both). They would probably have won all three medals if they had been allowed to have B and C teams, such is their strength in depth.
I suppose it helps if you live in a cold northern climate, where half the land area is below sea level. Even so, it was a crushing performance, which is unlikely to be repeated in any sport, ever.
Walter Blotscher
Sunday 16 February 2014
RICHARD MØLLER NIELSEN
Richard Møller Nielsen died this week. Not many people outside Denmark know who he was, everybody in Denmark knows who he was.
As you ask, he was the trainer of the national football team when they won the European football championships in 1992.
I met him once, at a football camp for my son, where I was a trainer. He was a very nice man.
I am off to Rome tomorrow for a romantic week with my wife. Back blogging next weekend.
Walter Blotscher
Richard Møller Nielsen died this week. Not many people outside Denmark know who he was, everybody in Denmark knows who he was.
As you ask, he was the trainer of the national football team when they won the European football championships in 1992.
I met him once, at a football camp for my son, where I was a trainer. He was a very nice man.
I am off to Rome tomorrow for a romantic week with my wife. Back blogging next weekend.
Walter Blotscher
Saturday 15 February 2014
MINK
Denmark is one of the world's biggest producers of mink pelts. Annual production is more than 17 million (that's a lot of small-ish animals to be fed, reared and disposed of), and the industry employs some 6,000 people. It generates more than US$1 billion in export earnings, mainly to China. Indeed, mink pelts represent around a third of all Danish exports to China and Hong Kong
That demand has led to a sharp rise in prices in recent years, from around kr.330 per pelt in 2010 to a record kr.612 last year. Expectations were high when the annual auctions started in Copenhagen this week. So it was a bit of a shock to find prices hovering between kr.360 and kr.380 a pelt.
I suppose that even in China, there is a limit to the amount of dead rodent that can be worn. This week's developments will cause a shiver in the Danish mink industry.
Walter Blotscher
Denmark is one of the world's biggest producers of mink pelts. Annual production is more than 17 million (that's a lot of small-ish animals to be fed, reared and disposed of), and the industry employs some 6,000 people. It generates more than US$1 billion in export earnings, mainly to China. Indeed, mink pelts represent around a third of all Danish exports to China and Hong Kong
That demand has led to a sharp rise in prices in recent years, from around kr.330 per pelt in 2010 to a record kr.612 last year. Expectations were high when the annual auctions started in Copenhagen this week. So it was a bit of a shock to find prices hovering between kr.360 and kr.380 a pelt.
I suppose that even in China, there is a limit to the amount of dead rodent that can be worn. This week's developments will cause a shiver in the Danish mink industry.
Walter Blotscher
Thursday 13 February 2014
A BRIDGE TOO FAR?
Denmark has spent much of the past twenty years or so linking its various islands with major bridge and tunnel projects. These include the 20km Great Belt link between Fünen and Zealand, and a 20km link between Amager (the small island close to Copenhagen where the airport is), and southern Sweden. The latter was the setting for the TV series Broen ("the bridge"), which seems to have sold well.
The next big project is to link Lolland, the island at the southern end of Zealand, with northern Germany. There is a road and rail ferry from Rødby in Denmark to Puttgarden near Kiel, but no direct link. By building one, Denmark hopes to shorten transport times for traffic from both the Copenhagen area and more northerly Scandinavian countries to points south. The 19km tunnel will carry a four-lane motorway and two-track railway line, and is due to open in 2021. The total cost is estimated at some kr.41 billion, though that is likely to escalate during construction.
There is only one snag with this project; the Germans have refused to invest a penny in it. Not only will this put a burden on the Danish state, but the project will cannibalise toll revenues from the Great Belt link, which cost a lot and which currently rakes in a lot of money. From Germany's point of view, they don't really care whether foreign lorries enter the country via the land border with Jutland or the new link at Puttgarden. So why invest a lot of money in a new tunnel?
So Denmark will have to go it alone. There is however one domestic political benefit, in that Lolland in general and Rødby in particular are some of the most depressed parts of the country. A huge new construction project will give a welcome boost to local employment; and if traffic forecasts turn out to be correct, then at least some of those jobs may turn from being temporary to permanent.
Walter Blotscher
Denmark has spent much of the past twenty years or so linking its various islands with major bridge and tunnel projects. These include the 20km Great Belt link between Fünen and Zealand, and a 20km link between Amager (the small island close to Copenhagen where the airport is), and southern Sweden. The latter was the setting for the TV series Broen ("the bridge"), which seems to have sold well.
The next big project is to link Lolland, the island at the southern end of Zealand, with northern Germany. There is a road and rail ferry from Rødby in Denmark to Puttgarden near Kiel, but no direct link. By building one, Denmark hopes to shorten transport times for traffic from both the Copenhagen area and more northerly Scandinavian countries to points south. The 19km tunnel will carry a four-lane motorway and two-track railway line, and is due to open in 2021. The total cost is estimated at some kr.41 billion, though that is likely to escalate during construction.
There is only one snag with this project; the Germans have refused to invest a penny in it. Not only will this put a burden on the Danish state, but the project will cannibalise toll revenues from the Great Belt link, which cost a lot and which currently rakes in a lot of money. From Germany's point of view, they don't really care whether foreign lorries enter the country via the land border with Jutland or the new link at Puttgarden. So why invest a lot of money in a new tunnel?
So Denmark will have to go it alone. There is however one domestic political benefit, in that Lolland in general and Rødby in particular are some of the most depressed parts of the country. A huge new construction project will give a welcome boost to local employment; and if traffic forecasts turn out to be correct, then at least some of those jobs may turn from being temporary to permanent.
Walter Blotscher
Wednesday 12 February 2014
LABOUR RELATIONS
Denmark has a rather civilised attitude to labour relations. Employer and union organisations, as opposed to individual firms and workers, sit down together and agree longish-term contracts (usually 2 years) covering the whole of their industry. Individual firms tend to go along with any deal agreed, though some use it as a floor, and offer better terms. Companies within the industry that are not formally part of the deal still tend to use it as a benchmark.
The "agreement season" starts around now, and kicks off with the negotiations for industry, 240,000 production workers spread across some 6,000 companies. Because of knock-on effects, the industry agreement sets the tone for all other groups' negotiations, and is widely considered to be the bellweather for the economy. So there was relief all round when agreement was announced on Monday. Civilised relations have been under a bit of strain since the beginning of the financial crisis, so one of the most important elements of the deal was that it is for three years instead of the normal two. The other major point was a rise over the period in the minimum wage from kr.108.70 an hour to kr.113.65. Many production workers get paid more than that, but it is still good for Danish competitiveness that the wage floor will only rise by around 5% over three years.
With industry done and dusted, other groups should find it easy to settle. Which is what the country needs as it slowly emerges from the havoc of the past six years.
Walter Blotscher
Denmark has a rather civilised attitude to labour relations. Employer and union organisations, as opposed to individual firms and workers, sit down together and agree longish-term contracts (usually 2 years) covering the whole of their industry. Individual firms tend to go along with any deal agreed, though some use it as a floor, and offer better terms. Companies within the industry that are not formally part of the deal still tend to use it as a benchmark.
The "agreement season" starts around now, and kicks off with the negotiations for industry, 240,000 production workers spread across some 6,000 companies. Because of knock-on effects, the industry agreement sets the tone for all other groups' negotiations, and is widely considered to be the bellweather for the economy. So there was relief all round when agreement was announced on Monday. Civilised relations have been under a bit of strain since the beginning of the financial crisis, so one of the most important elements of the deal was that it is for three years instead of the normal two. The other major point was a rise over the period in the minimum wage from kr.108.70 an hour to kr.113.65. Many production workers get paid more than that, but it is still good for Danish competitiveness that the wage floor will only rise by around 5% over three years.
With industry done and dusted, other groups should find it easy to settle. Which is what the country needs as it slowly emerges from the havoc of the past six years.
Walter Blotscher
Tuesday 11 February 2014
FACEBOOK (3)
Facebook is now 10 years old, and has more than a billion users. That is an incredible record, which few companies, either now or in the future, will be able to match.
In my earlier posts on Facebook, I have said that I don't get it. Despite having an account, I still don't; 99.9% of it seems to be just mindless stream of consciousness. And so, on a regular basis, I ask my students or my children how much they use it, and what they think Facebook will look like in 10 years' time. The consensus at the moment seems to be that they are getting fed up with it, and moving to other social media such as Twitter and Instagram.
The problem is Facebook's success. When it was growing fast but dominated by young people, then it was cool to be on Facebook. But when everybody's granny (or a boring parent like me) has worked out how to be on it, so that they can follow, or communicate with, their grandchildren, then it isn't so cool any more. At which point it is best to find something else.
True, growth in low penetration Facebook countries will probably compensate for any losses in the original heartlands. And it is also true that Facebook is good at defending its position (it bought Instagram, for instance, and may well buy other competitors or potential competitors). But I have to admit that I find it hard to envisage a world in 2024 in which (say) 3 billion people are actively using Facebook.
As I say, I still just don't get it.
Walter Blotscher
Facebook is now 10 years old, and has more than a billion users. That is an incredible record, which few companies, either now or in the future, will be able to match.
In my earlier posts on Facebook, I have said that I don't get it. Despite having an account, I still don't; 99.9% of it seems to be just mindless stream of consciousness. And so, on a regular basis, I ask my students or my children how much they use it, and what they think Facebook will look like in 10 years' time. The consensus at the moment seems to be that they are getting fed up with it, and moving to other social media such as Twitter and Instagram.
The problem is Facebook's success. When it was growing fast but dominated by young people, then it was cool to be on Facebook. But when everybody's granny (or a boring parent like me) has worked out how to be on it, so that they can follow, or communicate with, their grandchildren, then it isn't so cool any more. At which point it is best to find something else.
True, growth in low penetration Facebook countries will probably compensate for any losses in the original heartlands. And it is also true that Facebook is good at defending its position (it bought Instagram, for instance, and may well buy other competitors or potential competitors). But I have to admit that I find it hard to envisage a world in 2024 in which (say) 3 billion people are actively using Facebook.
As I say, I still just don't get it.
Walter Blotscher
Monday 10 February 2014
U.K. IMMIGRATION
The British Government (or at least the Conservative part of it) is obsessed with reducing net migration into the U.K. My earlier posts outlined the scale of the problem, and how difficult it will be to achieve stated goals. But that doesn't mean that they aren't trying anyhow.
One way of doing so is to shift part of the burden of policing immigration, namely tackling illegal working, onto companies. Under the current rules, contained in an 84-page document, employers have to check whether passports and other identity documents are in order, and confirm that the employee's relevant visa is up to date, and covers the type of employment. The fine for non-compliance is a fairly hefty £10,000. However, under new legislation currently wending its way through Parliament, that fine will be doubled, though the list of acceptable documents will supposedly be reduced. Health services will also be required to check, since illegals will have to pay for healthcare instead of getting it for free.
I don't like these proposals, but could they work? The Minister steering the bill, Mark Harper, has just resigned. Despite carrying out checks on her documentation, he had employed as a cleaner someone who later turned out to be an illegal immigrant. Nobody is suggesting that he knowingly employed an illegal immigrant. By resigning promptly, he has shown himself to be an honourable man, a rarity in modern politics.
However, being honourable is one thing, having a workable policy is another. Mr. Harper has been working on this for a long time, probably 24/7 or close to it. If he can't get on the right side of the law, what chance is there for a hard-pressed small business owner with four employees?
Walter Blotscher
The British Government (or at least the Conservative part of it) is obsessed with reducing net migration into the U.K. My earlier posts outlined the scale of the problem, and how difficult it will be to achieve stated goals. But that doesn't mean that they aren't trying anyhow.
One way of doing so is to shift part of the burden of policing immigration, namely tackling illegal working, onto companies. Under the current rules, contained in an 84-page document, employers have to check whether passports and other identity documents are in order, and confirm that the employee's relevant visa is up to date, and covers the type of employment. The fine for non-compliance is a fairly hefty £10,000. However, under new legislation currently wending its way through Parliament, that fine will be doubled, though the list of acceptable documents will supposedly be reduced. Health services will also be required to check, since illegals will have to pay for healthcare instead of getting it for free.
I don't like these proposals, but could they work? The Minister steering the bill, Mark Harper, has just resigned. Despite carrying out checks on her documentation, he had employed as a cleaner someone who later turned out to be an illegal immigrant. Nobody is suggesting that he knowingly employed an illegal immigrant. By resigning promptly, he has shown himself to be an honourable man, a rarity in modern politics.
However, being honourable is one thing, having a workable policy is another. Mr. Harper has been working on this for a long time, probably 24/7 or close to it. If he can't get on the right side of the law, what chance is there for a hard-pressed small business owner with four employees?
Walter Blotscher
Sunday 9 February 2014
ICE SKATING
My wife's two nine-year old nieces wanted the family to go ice skating for their birthday present, so yesterday we did. I haven't been ice skating for a very long time, so it took me a while to get used to it again. On a public rink, it's a bit like being a commuter at a busy international railway station, except that the people whizzing past you are not hard-pressed bankers, late for the office, but seven-year old budding ice hockey players, honing their skills.
After an hour or so, I was mentally congratulating myself on being one of the few over-50s on the ice, when I was walloped from behind by one of the other over-50s. Unfortunately, he happened to be some 15kgs heavier than me, so I went down with a crash. Luckily it was right on my buttock, so I was able to continue; but I have a very sore bottom, and expect a bruise within the next day or so.
As for my attacker, he merely said sorry and continued skating. That seemed to be a rather puny penance, but I wasn't big enough to do anything about it.
Walter Blotscher
My wife's two nine-year old nieces wanted the family to go ice skating for their birthday present, so yesterday we did. I haven't been ice skating for a very long time, so it took me a while to get used to it again. On a public rink, it's a bit like being a commuter at a busy international railway station, except that the people whizzing past you are not hard-pressed bankers, late for the office, but seven-year old budding ice hockey players, honing their skills.
After an hour or so, I was mentally congratulating myself on being one of the few over-50s on the ice, when I was walloped from behind by one of the other over-50s. Unfortunately, he happened to be some 15kgs heavier than me, so I went down with a crash. Luckily it was right on my buttock, so I was able to continue; but I have a very sore bottom, and expect a bruise within the next day or so.
As for my attacker, he merely said sorry and continued skating. That seemed to be a rather puny penance, but I wasn't big enough to do anything about it.
Walter Blotscher
Saturday 8 February 2014
MOLE WARFARE (13)
Not much happened on the mole front during the autumn. However around Christmas, one got into the front garden. This was a dangerous assault, since the front lawn is a relatively unspoiled bit of territory, so it was important not to have new tunnels made. Unfortunately, my adversary has been both busy and tenacious, filling my traps with huge mounds of earth that had begun to get on my nerves.
However, if there is one thing I have learned in my eternal mole conflict, it is patience. And this morning I got him. I am going to bury him in the entrance to the new tunnel system. Pour encourager les autres, as generals would say.
Walter Blotscher
Not much happened on the mole front during the autumn. However around Christmas, one got into the front garden. This was a dangerous assault, since the front lawn is a relatively unspoiled bit of territory, so it was important not to have new tunnels made. Unfortunately, my adversary has been both busy and tenacious, filling my traps with huge mounds of earth that had begun to get on my nerves.
However, if there is one thing I have learned in my eternal mole conflict, it is patience. And this morning I got him. I am going to bury him in the entrance to the new tunnel system. Pour encourager les autres, as generals would say.
Walter Blotscher
Friday 7 February 2014
THE BOILER GOES
I got a message from my wife this morning at work, that the boiler had stopped, and could I sort it out? When I got home this evening I rang my bridge partner, who happens to be an ex-boilerman. After prodding various switches while on the phone, we agreed that it was due to a lack of oil in the tank (if it sounds a bit stupid that I hadn't worked that out, it's because the tank has to have 200 litres or so in it in order to give enough pressure, and the gauge is not that accurate).
A fresh batch of heating oil has been ordered for tomorrow, which should sort out the problem. In the meantime, the house is pretty cold. Still, that puts me in the mood for the Winter Olympics, which start today. My son and I watched the opening ceremony this evening wrapped in duvets, which seemed rather appropriate.
Walter Blotscher
I got a message from my wife this morning at work, that the boiler had stopped, and could I sort it out? When I got home this evening I rang my bridge partner, who happens to be an ex-boilerman. After prodding various switches while on the phone, we agreed that it was due to a lack of oil in the tank (if it sounds a bit stupid that I hadn't worked that out, it's because the tank has to have 200 litres or so in it in order to give enough pressure, and the gauge is not that accurate).
A fresh batch of heating oil has been ordered for tomorrow, which should sort out the problem. In the meantime, the house is pretty cold. Still, that puts me in the mood for the Winter Olympics, which start today. My son and I watched the opening ceremony this evening wrapped in duvets, which seemed rather appropriate.
Walter Blotscher
Wednesday 5 February 2014
NEW BUILDING
One of the factors contributing to the financial crisis was a frothy property market, and that included the construction of far too many new commercial buildings. New figures just released show just how frothy things were in Denmark. At the end 2006, perhaps the highwater mark, some 2 million sq meters of new commercial property were started. At the end of 2013, that figure had fallen to around 300,000 sq meters.
Property bulls are of course already saying that that figure is too low, and that Denmark needs more new buildings. Judging from the number of empty properties lying around, I would disagree.
Walter Blotscher
One of the factors contributing to the financial crisis was a frothy property market, and that included the construction of far too many new commercial buildings. New figures just released show just how frothy things were in Denmark. At the end 2006, perhaps the highwater mark, some 2 million sq meters of new commercial property were started. At the end of 2013, that figure had fallen to around 300,000 sq meters.
Property bulls are of course already saying that that figure is too low, and that Denmark needs more new buildings. Judging from the number of empty properties lying around, I would disagree.
Walter Blotscher
Monday 3 February 2014
200 YEARS OF SCHOOLS
It was in 1814 that Denmark first passed legislation obliging children to go to school, and giving them the right to do so. Back then, school went from the age of 7 until confirmation, around 14 or 15. The earlier age has remained remarkably stable, with all Scandinavian countries reluctant to start formal schooling at an earlier age. The upper age has however gone up and up. Today, Denmark is almost the only country in the world where both education is free, up to and including university, and adult students get money from the state to support them while they study.
Back in 1814 it was also the rule that no child should have to walk more than 2km in order to go to school. One consequence of that was the building of hundreds of small, rural schools. That idea has however not survived the pressure to become more efficient; small, rural schools are today almost non-existent, and those that remain will probably close within the next decade.
Walter Blotscher
It was in 1814 that Denmark first passed legislation obliging children to go to school, and giving them the right to do so. Back then, school went from the age of 7 until confirmation, around 14 or 15. The earlier age has remained remarkably stable, with all Scandinavian countries reluctant to start formal schooling at an earlier age. The upper age has however gone up and up. Today, Denmark is almost the only country in the world where both education is free, up to and including university, and adult students get money from the state to support them while they study.
Back in 1814 it was also the rule that no child should have to walk more than 2km in order to go to school. One consequence of that was the building of hundreds of small, rural schools. That idea has however not survived the pressure to become more efficient; small, rural schools are today almost non-existent, and those that remain will probably close within the next decade.
Walter Blotscher
Sunday 2 February 2014
BRIDGE (11)
Our bridge season continues to go well. We entered a strong tournament today, which cost kr.225, including lunch. But in winning the second division, I got kr.250 in cash, a free pen from the sponsors, two bottles of nice wine for my wife and some silver points to add to my bridge rating. All in all, a pretty good day.
Walter Blotscher
Our bridge season continues to go well. We entered a strong tournament today, which cost kr.225, including lunch. But in winning the second division, I got kr.250 in cash, a free pen from the sponsors, two bottles of nice wine for my wife and some silver points to add to my bridge rating. All in all, a pretty good day.
Walter Blotscher
Saturday 1 February 2014
MONASTICISM
Looking back at the Middle Ages, I think that the thing which seems most strange to the modern world is monasticism. In an era, where we are conditioned both to try and get as much for ourselves as possible, and to view our success or failure in terms of that, the idea of giving everything up and living a contemplative life of prayer seems, well, kind of weird.
But it's only weird because we think differently. For mediæval people, or at least for the aristocratic elite who were the driving force behind it and financed it, monasticism was intensely practical, as practical as carpentry or plumbing. Monks fought battles just as real as mounted knights fought battles; indeed, they were even more important, since they were against the supernatural enemies that everybody knew were present in the world. Secondly, they gave an outlet for penance. Mediæval penances could be extremely heavy. After the Battle of Hastings, and despite the fact that Duke William's invasion had been semi-blessed by the Pope in advance, Norman bishops gave a penance of one year for each man killed by the victorious army. For a knight who had just faced death in battle, trying to help conquer a whole kingdom in the hope of land and plunder, that must have been a real pain. So having a load of monks to do the penance for you (penance was hugely important, but it didn't matter who did it) must have been quite a relief. Thirdly, when wealth was a function of land ownership, and children expected to inherit, monasteries provided a way for great families to provide for some of their members without having to carve up their estates. A fairly cushy bachelor life, not dissimilar to all-male clubs a hundred years ago.
When the reasons are stated like that, it's easy to see how the monastic ideal could be corrupted. Indeed, taking the long view, the whole history of monasticism is a continual cycle, in which the initial resources provided to start things off (land, buildings, endowments, younger sons) eventually led to slackness, nepotism and great wealth; and finally a call for spiritual reform and renewal, starting the cycle in some new place.
Monasteries today are of course not like mediæval ones, they really are places where there is a simple and contemplative life. But because of that, there are also a lot fewer number of them than there were. Since being a monk in the modern world really is weird.
Walter Blotscher
Looking back at the Middle Ages, I think that the thing which seems most strange to the modern world is monasticism. In an era, where we are conditioned both to try and get as much for ourselves as possible, and to view our success or failure in terms of that, the idea of giving everything up and living a contemplative life of prayer seems, well, kind of weird.
But it's only weird because we think differently. For mediæval people, or at least for the aristocratic elite who were the driving force behind it and financed it, monasticism was intensely practical, as practical as carpentry or plumbing. Monks fought battles just as real as mounted knights fought battles; indeed, they were even more important, since they were against the supernatural enemies that everybody knew were present in the world. Secondly, they gave an outlet for penance. Mediæval penances could be extremely heavy. After the Battle of Hastings, and despite the fact that Duke William's invasion had been semi-blessed by the Pope in advance, Norman bishops gave a penance of one year for each man killed by the victorious army. For a knight who had just faced death in battle, trying to help conquer a whole kingdom in the hope of land and plunder, that must have been a real pain. So having a load of monks to do the penance for you (penance was hugely important, but it didn't matter who did it) must have been quite a relief. Thirdly, when wealth was a function of land ownership, and children expected to inherit, monasteries provided a way for great families to provide for some of their members without having to carve up their estates. A fairly cushy bachelor life, not dissimilar to all-male clubs a hundred years ago.
When the reasons are stated like that, it's easy to see how the monastic ideal could be corrupted. Indeed, taking the long view, the whole history of monasticism is a continual cycle, in which the initial resources provided to start things off (land, buildings, endowments, younger sons) eventually led to slackness, nepotism and great wealth; and finally a call for spiritual reform and renewal, starting the cycle in some new place.
Monasteries today are of course not like mediæval ones, they really are places where there is a simple and contemplative life. But because of that, there are also a lot fewer number of them than there were. Since being a monk in the modern world really is weird.
Walter Blotscher
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