DONG ENERGY (2)
The proposed minority investment by Goldman Sachs in state-owned Dong Energy caused the partial collapse of the Danish Government yesterday. Despite last-minute harrumphing by trade unions and an online petition against the deal, which attracted almost 200,000 signatures within days, the deal itself was never in doubt. The Danish People's Party, probably the only people to emerge from the mess with credit, were right to question the details of the investment, which were far too generous to Goldman Sachs. It also emerged that Goldman Sachs were intending to channel their investment through a company in the Cayman Islands (corporate tax avoidance is a big issue here at the moment). But the DPP could be, and were duly, ignored, since the Social Democrat/Socialist/Radical coalition Government had already secured in advance the votes of the opposition Venstre and Conservatives. With a secure Parliamentary majority, the deal was duly approved yesterday.
The problems were not with the opposition, but within the ruling coalition itself, and the Socialists in particular. This is the first time that they have ever been in Government, and the strains of moving from being a perennial protest party to a responsible part of the country's leadership were always going to be great. Those strains had increased markedly in the wake of the financial crisis as the coalition found itself in the position of being a left of centre Government forced to implement painful reforms more normally associated with right of centre parties. The Socialists have found themselves usurped as the protest party of the left by the even more left-wing Enhedslisten, and were duly thumped in last November's local government elections. Many Socialist members (if not their Ministerial representatives) have long questioned the wisdom of being in a coalition Government so far removed from what they perceive as the party's core principles.
Against that background, the Dong affair was not so much a fundamental issue, but the straw that broke the camel's back. And the catalyst came, when Enhedslisten tabled a preparatory motion in Parliament calling for a "time-out" on the vote on the Dong deal, while an all-Danish solution was found, that excluded Goldman Sachs. Many Socialist MP's, supported by party members and the obvious public support in the petition, thought that a time-out made eminent sense. However, for Socialist Ministers, the issue became the Danish equivalent of a three-line whip; if you are in Government, you vote for Government policy. Under a strong leader, rebellious MP's might well have been cowed. But Annette Vilhelmsen, elected party leader as an outsider in October 2012, has turned out to be a disastrous choice. Yesterday, after a series of crisis meetings and on the morning of the Dong vote, she pulled the Socialists out of the Government and announced her resignation as party leader. Within 24 hours, the remainder of the party's leadership had resigned, and two former Socialist Ministers, Health Minister Astrid Krag and Environment Minister Ida Auken, had defected to the Social Democrats and Radicals respectively. Leaderless, rudderless, and out of Government, there is now a real prospect that the party will simply implode and disappear.
In terms of Government, some have said that not much has changed; the number of MP's who support Helle Thorning-Schmidt as Prime Minister today is the same as the number who supported it yesterday. Indeed, it could be said that the Government has been strengthened; many of its problems stemmed from bickering, both internally and with its nominal supporters in Enhedslisten, and the first of those is now greatly reduced. However, it is never a good thing for a Government to lose Ministers, and after the turbulence of last autumn, the Prime Minister was at pains to stress that she didn't intend to change any more Ministers before the next election. Suddenly, she now has to find six new ones.
In a more general sense, the affair highlights one of the disadvantages of coalition politics. In a 2-party system such as the U.K.'s or America's, critics from the fringes can be accomodated within "broad church" parties by politely ignoring them and never giving them office. But in a multi-party system, those fringe critics can find a home in a party of their own (Enhedslisten, the DPP, the Socialists). If at some point, a coalition arises that places that party in power, then the whole party has to change it ways. In the case of the Socialists, that change was simply not possible; and I suspect it would be the same with Enhedslisten. The interesting question is whether the DPP can make the change, when (as I expect) the right come back to power at the next election. My prediction is that they can, not least because Pia Kjærsgaard and Kristian Thulesen Dahl are much better politicians than Annette Vilhelmsen and Villy Søvndal ever were.
Meanwhile, Goldman Sachs must be chuckling. Not only have they obtained a favourable investment, which they expect to make a lot of money for them, but they have demonstrated that they have the power to shake Governments. The fact that they seem to be widely hated in Denmark is probably not something that worries them. I once had a job interview with them, where I was asked whether I would rather make a lot of money or have friends. I mumbled something hopeless about how I didn't think you would have to choose. That was obviously the completely wrong answer, since the interview ended shortly thereafter.
Walter Blotscher
Friday 31 January 2014
Thursday 30 January 2014
THE AUSTRALIAN OPEN (2)
I started this blog four years ago with a post on the Australian Open, so it's appropriate that I go back to it.
First, I have to admit that I was wrong about Andy Murray. After losing to Federer in that final, I predicted that he would never win a Grand Slam; but he has since won two, a U.S. Open and Wimbledon last year. I still can't warm to him, in the way I can to Federer or Djokovic, but the boy's done good, as they say.
Federer had a good tournament, despite being almost an old man at 32. Last year was, by his high standards, a bit of a disaster, as he was plagued by a series of niggling back problems. However, he is now back injury-free, with a new racket and a new coach in Stefan Edberg, another supremely elegant player and my hero from the 1980's/early 1990's. The combination was clearly on display, as he demolished both Jo-Wilfred Tsonga, his nemesis of the past couple years, in the last 16, and Murray in the quarter finals. But he then ran into Rafael Nadal, probably the player that has always given Federer the most problems, his heavily topspun forehand putting pressure on Federer's backhand. Nadal played at his best, and Federer didn't, so the result was pretty predictable.
With Federer, Murray and (in the other half of the draw) Djokovic out of the way, Nadal was the overwhelming favourite to win. But that didn't take account of Stanislaw Wawrinka, the Swiss conqueror of Djokovic in the quarter finals. At 28, Wrawinka is a late developer, who has improved markedly in the past year or two, and who possesses both a powerful serve and the best one-handed backhand in the game. In the first set, he played beautifully, literally blowing Nadal off the court (not an easy thing to do). Nadal then tweaked his back; and although that made Wrawinka nervous, he eventually came through to win in four sets. Remarkably, this was only the second time since January 2005 that a men's Grand Slam winner had not been one of the big four of Federer, Nadal, Djokovic, and Murray.
In the women's competition, all of the top seeds stumbled against lesser opposition. This allowed my favourite Li Na to win her second Grand Slam title after her French Open victory a couple of years ago. In an age when top women's tennis players are very young, it was refreshing to see a 31-year old take the trophy.
Walter Blotscher
I started this blog four years ago with a post on the Australian Open, so it's appropriate that I go back to it.
First, I have to admit that I was wrong about Andy Murray. After losing to Federer in that final, I predicted that he would never win a Grand Slam; but he has since won two, a U.S. Open and Wimbledon last year. I still can't warm to him, in the way I can to Federer or Djokovic, but the boy's done good, as they say.
Federer had a good tournament, despite being almost an old man at 32. Last year was, by his high standards, a bit of a disaster, as he was plagued by a series of niggling back problems. However, he is now back injury-free, with a new racket and a new coach in Stefan Edberg, another supremely elegant player and my hero from the 1980's/early 1990's. The combination was clearly on display, as he demolished both Jo-Wilfred Tsonga, his nemesis of the past couple years, in the last 16, and Murray in the quarter finals. But he then ran into Rafael Nadal, probably the player that has always given Federer the most problems, his heavily topspun forehand putting pressure on Federer's backhand. Nadal played at his best, and Federer didn't, so the result was pretty predictable.
With Federer, Murray and (in the other half of the draw) Djokovic out of the way, Nadal was the overwhelming favourite to win. But that didn't take account of Stanislaw Wawrinka, the Swiss conqueror of Djokovic in the quarter finals. At 28, Wrawinka is a late developer, who has improved markedly in the past year or two, and who possesses both a powerful serve and the best one-handed backhand in the game. In the first set, he played beautifully, literally blowing Nadal off the court (not an easy thing to do). Nadal then tweaked his back; and although that made Wrawinka nervous, he eventually came through to win in four sets. Remarkably, this was only the second time since January 2005 that a men's Grand Slam winner had not been one of the big four of Federer, Nadal, Djokovic, and Murray.
In the women's competition, all of the top seeds stumbled against lesser opposition. This allowed my favourite Li Na to win her second Grand Slam title after her French Open victory a couple of years ago. In an age when top women's tennis players are very young, it was refreshing to see a 31-year old take the trophy.
Walter Blotscher
Wednesday 29 January 2014
HERESY
Heresy is a word I automatically associate with ancient times; a unified Christian church, the Spanish Inquisition, burnings at the stake, that sort of thing. It's not a word you'd expect to hear in a 21st century episcopal election.
Yet that is one of the accusations being thrown in the election in Ribe diocese, which covers Southern Jutland and is the oldest in Denmark. In contrast to (say) the Catholic and Anglican churches, bishops in Denmark's egalitarian Lutheran church are elected by the members of the local parish councils, and there are three candidates to replace Elisabeth Dons Christensen (another contrast) when she retires on 1 June this year. One of the three has accused one of the others of heresy, on the grounds that he once wrote in a book that he doesn't believe in God as an almighty creator.
Episcopal elections tend to be quiet affairs here. However, Jutland is probably the part of the country where religious differences are most pronounced and theological disputes conducted most passionately. The Ribe election could end up as being quite interesting.
Walter Blotscher
Heresy is a word I automatically associate with ancient times; a unified Christian church, the Spanish Inquisition, burnings at the stake, that sort of thing. It's not a word you'd expect to hear in a 21st century episcopal election.
Yet that is one of the accusations being thrown in the election in Ribe diocese, which covers Southern Jutland and is the oldest in Denmark. In contrast to (say) the Catholic and Anglican churches, bishops in Denmark's egalitarian Lutheran church are elected by the members of the local parish councils, and there are three candidates to replace Elisabeth Dons Christensen (another contrast) when she retires on 1 June this year. One of the three has accused one of the others of heresy, on the grounds that he once wrote in a book that he doesn't believe in God as an almighty creator.
Episcopal elections tend to be quiet affairs here. However, Jutland is probably the part of the country where religious differences are most pronounced and theological disputes conducted most passionately. The Ribe election could end up as being quite interesting.
Walter Blotscher
Monday 27 January 2014
HOME COURT ADVANTAGE (2)
A year ago, Denmark got blown away by Spain in the final of the World handball Championships, suffering a humiliating defeat after looking good throughout the qualifying rounds. This year's European Championships, in reality the toughest championships of all, have just been played here over the past two weeks. Denmark were the defending champions, having won in Serbia two years ago; and with most of the 15,000 supporters in the Boxen in Herning firmly behind the home side, the odds on a repeat Danish victory were good.
For a long time, that optimism was justified. Denmark were the only country to go through the qualifying rounds undefeated; and in the semi-final, they got their revenge by beating Spain. That left only France, one of the giants of the sport, but also with an ageing team that had looked vulnerable at various points.
Unfortunately, in front of the Queen and the Prime Minister and a sea of fans dressed in red, the wheels fell off. France went 13-4 up in the first 15 minutes or so, and never looked back, eventually winning 41-32. My theory about home court advantage went up in smoke, along with all of those Danish hopes.
Walter Blotscher
A year ago, Denmark got blown away by Spain in the final of the World handball Championships, suffering a humiliating defeat after looking good throughout the qualifying rounds. This year's European Championships, in reality the toughest championships of all, have just been played here over the past two weeks. Denmark were the defending champions, having won in Serbia two years ago; and with most of the 15,000 supporters in the Boxen in Herning firmly behind the home side, the odds on a repeat Danish victory were good.
For a long time, that optimism was justified. Denmark were the only country to go through the qualifying rounds undefeated; and in the semi-final, they got their revenge by beating Spain. That left only France, one of the giants of the sport, but also with an ageing team that had looked vulnerable at various points.
Unfortunately, in front of the Queen and the Prime Minister and a sea of fans dressed in red, the wheels fell off. France went 13-4 up in the first 15 minutes or so, and never looked back, eventually winning 41-32. My theory about home court advantage went up in smoke, along with all of those Danish hopes.
Walter Blotscher
Saturday 25 January 2014
DENMARK'S TITANIC
Most people know the story of the Titanic. A modern ship, built to be unsinkable, sinks on its maiden voyage after hitting an iceberg, with huge loss of life.
Denmark has its own Titanic, the Hans Hedtoft. The ship was built by the Government in 1958 to supply Greenland. In an age of limited air transport, the ship was designed to be able to supply the then Danish colony all-year round instead of via the normal summer only schedule. It was an icebreaker, with a double hull, divided (shades of the Titanic) into seven watertight compartments, so that if one got punctured, the ship could still float. At the time, it was considered unsinkable. Yet on 30 January 1959, on its maiden voyage to Greenland, the Hans Hedtoft hit an iceberg and sank. All 95 on board lost their lives; despite a week-long search, no trace of either them or the ship was ever found, with the exception of a single lifebuoy that was washed up in Iceland some nine months later. It was one of Denmark's worst ever shipping disasters.
After the accident, it emerged that a number of captains with experience of sailing to Greenland had warned the Government not to go ahead with the plan, since the seas were too rough in winter, and there was extremely limited visibility because of the darkness. Political pressure forced a number of captains to withdraw their letter, so that the eventual presentation to Parliament by the relevant Minister downplayed the risks. Thereafter, the ship was doomed; as one captain put it, it was sign of man's hubris to think that such a wild force of nature could be tamed.
Walter Blotscher
Most people know the story of the Titanic. A modern ship, built to be unsinkable, sinks on its maiden voyage after hitting an iceberg, with huge loss of life.
Denmark has its own Titanic, the Hans Hedtoft. The ship was built by the Government in 1958 to supply Greenland. In an age of limited air transport, the ship was designed to be able to supply the then Danish colony all-year round instead of via the normal summer only schedule. It was an icebreaker, with a double hull, divided (shades of the Titanic) into seven watertight compartments, so that if one got punctured, the ship could still float. At the time, it was considered unsinkable. Yet on 30 January 1959, on its maiden voyage to Greenland, the Hans Hedtoft hit an iceberg and sank. All 95 on board lost their lives; despite a week-long search, no trace of either them or the ship was ever found, with the exception of a single lifebuoy that was washed up in Iceland some nine months later. It was one of Denmark's worst ever shipping disasters.
After the accident, it emerged that a number of captains with experience of sailing to Greenland had warned the Government not to go ahead with the plan, since the seas were too rough in winter, and there was extremely limited visibility because of the darkness. Political pressure forced a number of captains to withdraw their letter, so that the eventual presentation to Parliament by the relevant Minister downplayed the risks. Thereafter, the ship was doomed; as one captain put it, it was sign of man's hubris to think that such a wild force of nature could be tamed.
Walter Blotscher
Friday 24 January 2014
HOMOSEXUALITY IN AFRICA
One of the unabashedly positive trends that has taken place in my lifetime is a public acceptance of homosexuality. Male homosexuality, or to be legalistically pedantic, male homosexual acts, were decriminalised in the U.K. in the 1960's when I was a child (interestingly, female homosexual acts were never criminal; the probably apocryphal story is that they were not included in Victorian legislation, since Queen Victoria refused to believe that they existed). And since then, there has been a steady withering away of hindrances and petty discrimination, culminating in the passing of legislation allowing gay marriage in many countries.
However, one continent in the world lags behind that development; Africa. Amnesty International reckons that of the 57 African countries, some 38 criminalise and punish homosexuals. Some, such as Lesotho and Swaziland, have inherited the English common law tradition criminalising male acts, and have simply not modernised it; but others such as Tanzania and Uganda have sharpened the penalties markedly in recent years. Generally, it is the Anglophone and Arab countries that have the worst penalties; in black Francophone countries such as Chad and Niger, homosexuality is not illegal. However, only South Africa, with its carefully worded post-apartheid constitution, gives formal legal protection to gays.
What is worrying is not so much the legacy from colonial times, but the recent trend in the opposite direction. Uganda's Parliament originally passed a law proscribing the death penalty for homosexuality; but after protests, this was reduced to life imprisonment, plus up to three years in prison for people who do not report people they know to be homosexual. The law has not been signed by President Museveni, not least because a number of countries (including Denmark) have threatened to stop all aid if it is passed. But he is under local pressure to do so.
One factor in recent years has been the widespread influence of evangelical Protestant groups, particularly from America, who preach that homosexuality is a mortal sin, and who have gained traction in a number of African countries (including Uganda). Uganda's law was apparently drafted by one such preacher, and they are seen to be behind adverse developments in Nigeria. Having just re-read Reformation, I am extremely sceptical of the mixing of religion and private morals; perhaps more Africans should read it.
Walter Blotscher
One of the unabashedly positive trends that has taken place in my lifetime is a public acceptance of homosexuality. Male homosexuality, or to be legalistically pedantic, male homosexual acts, were decriminalised in the U.K. in the 1960's when I was a child (interestingly, female homosexual acts were never criminal; the probably apocryphal story is that they were not included in Victorian legislation, since Queen Victoria refused to believe that they existed). And since then, there has been a steady withering away of hindrances and petty discrimination, culminating in the passing of legislation allowing gay marriage in many countries.
However, one continent in the world lags behind that development; Africa. Amnesty International reckons that of the 57 African countries, some 38 criminalise and punish homosexuals. Some, such as Lesotho and Swaziland, have inherited the English common law tradition criminalising male acts, and have simply not modernised it; but others such as Tanzania and Uganda have sharpened the penalties markedly in recent years. Generally, it is the Anglophone and Arab countries that have the worst penalties; in black Francophone countries such as Chad and Niger, homosexuality is not illegal. However, only South Africa, with its carefully worded post-apartheid constitution, gives formal legal protection to gays.
What is worrying is not so much the legacy from colonial times, but the recent trend in the opposite direction. Uganda's Parliament originally passed a law proscribing the death penalty for homosexuality; but after protests, this was reduced to life imprisonment, plus up to three years in prison for people who do not report people they know to be homosexual. The law has not been signed by President Museveni, not least because a number of countries (including Denmark) have threatened to stop all aid if it is passed. But he is under local pressure to do so.
One factor in recent years has been the widespread influence of evangelical Protestant groups, particularly from America, who preach that homosexuality is a mortal sin, and who have gained traction in a number of African countries (including Uganda). Uganda's law was apparently drafted by one such preacher, and they are seen to be behind adverse developments in Nigeria. Having just re-read Reformation, I am extremely sceptical of the mixing of religion and private morals; perhaps more Africans should read it.
Walter Blotscher
Thursday 23 January 2014
INTERNET SECURITY
There is a lot of talk in the press about internet security at the moment; scams, identity theft and so on. Given the evidence about passwords, I have to say I am not surprised. In 2013 the 10 most common Danish passwords were (in order):
123456
password
12345678
qwerty
abc123
123456789
admin
111111
iloveyou
123123
I am a bit of a neanderthal when it comes to computers, but even I could have hacked into one of these.
Walter Blotscher
There is a lot of talk in the press about internet security at the moment; scams, identity theft and so on. Given the evidence about passwords, I have to say I am not surprised. In 2013 the 10 most common Danish passwords were (in order):
123456
password
12345678
qwerty
abc123
123456789
admin
111111
iloveyou
123123
I am a bit of a neanderthal when it comes to computers, but even I could have hacked into one of these.
Walter Blotscher
Wednesday 22 January 2014
EGGS
I like buying my eggs from one of the suppliers in the village who keep hens. Apart from being cheaper than a supermarket, I like the fact that the hens have space to run around and pick at things; that the transaction is in cash (and probably not declared); and that there is a fair amount of trust involved (you simply go into someone's barn, take some eggs, and put the money in a pot). All very different from a modern supermarket's supply chain, but nicer for that.
Walter Blotscher
I like buying my eggs from one of the suppliers in the village who keep hens. Apart from being cheaper than a supermarket, I like the fact that the hens have space to run around and pick at things; that the transaction is in cash (and probably not declared); and that there is a fair amount of trust involved (you simply go into someone's barn, take some eggs, and put the money in a pot). All very different from a modern supermarket's supply chain, but nicer for that.
Walter Blotscher
Tuesday 21 January 2014
FORECLOSURES
One of the best gauges of the state of the housing market is the fraction of sales caused by foreclosures; the lower the fraction, the better the market.
Statistics released by Denmark's ever efficient statistics agency shows that this fraction varies widely throughout the country. In rich areas like the suburbs to the north of Copenhagen, for instance, the fraction is 1% or less. However, out in the sticks, the fraction is much higher. The trend is away from the countryside and into the big cities, meaning that there is little or no demand coming the other way. In Lolland, a rural area at the southern tip of Zealand, the fraction is a whopping 37%; more than one house sold in three is a foreclosure.
In the kommune where I live, the fraction is still a steep 21%. Old farms can be bought here very cheaply, if you like quiet, little traffic and wide open spaces. Many modern Danes, particularly the young, don't; fortunately, I do.
Walter Blotscher
One of the best gauges of the state of the housing market is the fraction of sales caused by foreclosures; the lower the fraction, the better the market.
Statistics released by Denmark's ever efficient statistics agency shows that this fraction varies widely throughout the country. In rich areas like the suburbs to the north of Copenhagen, for instance, the fraction is 1% or less. However, out in the sticks, the fraction is much higher. The trend is away from the countryside and into the big cities, meaning that there is little or no demand coming the other way. In Lolland, a rural area at the southern tip of Zealand, the fraction is a whopping 37%; more than one house sold in three is a foreclosure.
In the kommune where I live, the fraction is still a steep 21%. Old farms can be bought here very cheaply, if you like quiet, little traffic and wide open spaces. Many modern Danes, particularly the young, don't; fortunately, I do.
Walter Blotscher
Monday 20 January 2014
AN UNNECESSARY INVESTMENT (2)
I underestimated the cost of attaching the three houses on my street to the public sewage system. For not only are people and big machines involved, there is also an archaeologist or two. They are charged with seeing if the trenches dug up by said men and machines have anything of historical value in them.
My guess is not. But it will take them a long time to come to the same conclusion, and they are not cheap.
This is becoming ridiculous.
Walter Blotscher
I underestimated the cost of attaching the three houses on my street to the public sewage system. For not only are people and big machines involved, there is also an archaeologist or two. They are charged with seeing if the trenches dug up by said men and machines have anything of historical value in them.
My guess is not. But it will take them a long time to come to the same conclusion, and they are not cheap.
This is becoming ridiculous.
Walter Blotscher
Sunday 19 January 2014
A WET WINTER
There has been no snow in Denmark this winter. There was a dribble last week, but it quickly turned to slush. It has instead been warm and wet.
So wet, that there are huge lakes all over my hacienda, and soggy, boggy, ground. It's all rather træls, as they would say here.
Walter Blotscher
There has been no snow in Denmark this winter. There was a dribble last week, but it quickly turned to slush. It has instead been warm and wet.
So wet, that there are huge lakes all over my hacienda, and soggy, boggy, ground. It's all rather træls, as they would say here.
Walter Blotscher
Saturday 18 January 2014
POLITICAL NOSES
One of the curiosities of Danish politics is the concept of "næser" (literally "noses"). This is perhaps best translated into English as a "ticking-off". A Minister does something wrong, but it is not so serious that it warrants a resignation (which in turn might, because of the complications of coalitions, cause the whole Government to fall). So they get a næse instead, a formal warning from Parliament that what they did was not up to scratch.
The Minister getting a næse this week was none other than the Prime Minister, Helle Thorning-Schmidt. And the reason was a matter, which shows no sign of going away, and every sign of getting bigger and bigger, namely the proposed visit to Christiania in the spring of 2012. This has already caused the resignation of both the head of the country's intelligence service and the Justice Minister; and since I last blogged on this in December, the top civil servant in the Justice Ministry has been sent on gardening leave, pending a formal disciplinary hearing which may cost her her job.
The latest developments concern the writing of the press release which the Justice Minister issued the night before he had to meet Parliament's Justice Committee to explain what had happened. It was in this press release that he first admitted to concocting the cock-and-bull story that eventually cost him his job. In the way of these things, the press release was sent round in draft by the Justice Ministry to those other Ministries that had an interest in the case; in this instance, the most important of those was the Prime Minister's office, whose permanent secretary suggested various changes. He also apparently informed the Prime Minister of what the press release would say.
When this emerged this week, the Prime Minister was hauled into Parliament for a 4.5 hour meeting with the Justice Committee. Nobody is suggesting - in contrast to what happened with the Justice Minister - that she misled Parliament. The criticism is that in knowing that the press release would say that the Justice Minister had misled Parliament, she should have stepped in and made him resign immediately, rather than waiting for the Justice Committee to do that itself. In other words, her næse is for poor management and leadership of the Government.
Since they don't cost you your job, næser can be shrugged off by tough Ministers. The problem for the Prime Minister is that this one reinforces an impression of weak leadership that was already there. She has protested that she has done nothing wrong, and that the næse is not warranted; but she would say that, wouldn't she. Meanwhile, the opposition is rubbing its hands with glee, as the Government looks more and more doomed.
Walter Blotscher
One of the curiosities of Danish politics is the concept of "næser" (literally "noses"). This is perhaps best translated into English as a "ticking-off". A Minister does something wrong, but it is not so serious that it warrants a resignation (which in turn might, because of the complications of coalitions, cause the whole Government to fall). So they get a næse instead, a formal warning from Parliament that what they did was not up to scratch.
The Minister getting a næse this week was none other than the Prime Minister, Helle Thorning-Schmidt. And the reason was a matter, which shows no sign of going away, and every sign of getting bigger and bigger, namely the proposed visit to Christiania in the spring of 2012. This has already caused the resignation of both the head of the country's intelligence service and the Justice Minister; and since I last blogged on this in December, the top civil servant in the Justice Ministry has been sent on gardening leave, pending a formal disciplinary hearing which may cost her her job.
The latest developments concern the writing of the press release which the Justice Minister issued the night before he had to meet Parliament's Justice Committee to explain what had happened. It was in this press release that he first admitted to concocting the cock-and-bull story that eventually cost him his job. In the way of these things, the press release was sent round in draft by the Justice Ministry to those other Ministries that had an interest in the case; in this instance, the most important of those was the Prime Minister's office, whose permanent secretary suggested various changes. He also apparently informed the Prime Minister of what the press release would say.
When this emerged this week, the Prime Minister was hauled into Parliament for a 4.5 hour meeting with the Justice Committee. Nobody is suggesting - in contrast to what happened with the Justice Minister - that she misled Parliament. The criticism is that in knowing that the press release would say that the Justice Minister had misled Parliament, she should have stepped in and made him resign immediately, rather than waiting for the Justice Committee to do that itself. In other words, her næse is for poor management and leadership of the Government.
Since they don't cost you your job, næser can be shrugged off by tough Ministers. The problem for the Prime Minister is that this one reinforces an impression of weak leadership that was already there. She has protested that she has done nothing wrong, and that the næse is not warranted; but she would say that, wouldn't she. Meanwhile, the opposition is rubbing its hands with glee, as the Government looks more and more doomed.
Walter Blotscher
Friday 17 January 2014
AN UNNECESSARY INVESTMENT
The septic tank is a wonderful invention, particularly for isolated houses in rural areas. In the modern version, the liquids and solids are separated, and the liquid is pumped through a "nedsivningsanlæg" (don't know the word in English), which lies under our back lawn. This consists of a relay of pipes with tiny holes in them, and which sit on a bed of stones. These act as a sort of cleaner, so that the water seeping into the ground is clean. Once a year, a local contractor comes and empties the tank of all the solid waste, and takes it up to the town sewage works, where it is processed along with the waste of everyone who is connected to the public sewage system. If for any reason the tank fills up before the planned yearly visit, a sensor activates an alarm, and I ask the contractor to come a bit earlier.
Once installed, the system is cheap to run, requiring only some electricity to work the pump, and an annual payment to the contractor, which forms part of the local authority rates. I would guess that the whole thing costs around £100 per annum per household.
When we bought our house back in 2002, the local authority made us invest more than £10,000 in a brand-new septic tank (the old one had no nedsivningsanlæg) on the grounds that "you will never be connected to the public system, it is simply not economic". A view which made sense at the time, since we live 500 yards from the sea; if we were connected, then our sewage would have to be pumped 3km uphill to the sewage works. So I was more than a little surprised when in 2011 the local authority decided to connect the four houses on our street, plus other isolated farms in the village, to the public network, and to charge us each kr.35.000 (£4,000 or so) for the privilege. After protesting violently, we were saved by the fact that our new installation was under 10 years old. But our three neighbours, all of whom have perfectly well-functioning septic tanks, could not escape.
At the moment, therefore, there is a large construction crew, complete with enormous digger and other assorted equipment, busily installing pipes along our road. Because the houses are far from each other, we are talking about at least 500 metres of pipes. Even with the forced contribution of kr.105.000 from the three households, there is no way that this is an economic investment, given that the labour costs alone are of the order of kr.10.000 a day. Furthermore, once the system is up and running, it will surely cost more in pumping costs than we currently use in pumping/transporting. This is like Keynes' idea of paying men to dig holes and fill them up again in order to alleviate unemployment.
What is particularly stupid about this whole idea is that it is in stark contrast with what is going on elsewhere. The local authority has decided that the sewage waste of 6 adults and 2 children needs to be pumped miles underground. Meanwhile, on the field next to all of this activity, the sewage waste of hundreds of pigs is spread indiscriminately all over the place. It makes no sense.
Walter Blotscher
The septic tank is a wonderful invention, particularly for isolated houses in rural areas. In the modern version, the liquids and solids are separated, and the liquid is pumped through a "nedsivningsanlæg" (don't know the word in English), which lies under our back lawn. This consists of a relay of pipes with tiny holes in them, and which sit on a bed of stones. These act as a sort of cleaner, so that the water seeping into the ground is clean. Once a year, a local contractor comes and empties the tank of all the solid waste, and takes it up to the town sewage works, where it is processed along with the waste of everyone who is connected to the public sewage system. If for any reason the tank fills up before the planned yearly visit, a sensor activates an alarm, and I ask the contractor to come a bit earlier.
Once installed, the system is cheap to run, requiring only some electricity to work the pump, and an annual payment to the contractor, which forms part of the local authority rates. I would guess that the whole thing costs around £100 per annum per household.
When we bought our house back in 2002, the local authority made us invest more than £10,000 in a brand-new septic tank (the old one had no nedsivningsanlæg) on the grounds that "you will never be connected to the public system, it is simply not economic". A view which made sense at the time, since we live 500 yards from the sea; if we were connected, then our sewage would have to be pumped 3km uphill to the sewage works. So I was more than a little surprised when in 2011 the local authority decided to connect the four houses on our street, plus other isolated farms in the village, to the public network, and to charge us each kr.35.000 (£4,000 or so) for the privilege. After protesting violently, we were saved by the fact that our new installation was under 10 years old. But our three neighbours, all of whom have perfectly well-functioning septic tanks, could not escape.
At the moment, therefore, there is a large construction crew, complete with enormous digger and other assorted equipment, busily installing pipes along our road. Because the houses are far from each other, we are talking about at least 500 metres of pipes. Even with the forced contribution of kr.105.000 from the three households, there is no way that this is an economic investment, given that the labour costs alone are of the order of kr.10.000 a day. Furthermore, once the system is up and running, it will surely cost more in pumping costs than we currently use in pumping/transporting. This is like Keynes' idea of paying men to dig holes and fill them up again in order to alleviate unemployment.
What is particularly stupid about this whole idea is that it is in stark contrast with what is going on elsewhere. The local authority has decided that the sewage waste of 6 adults and 2 children needs to be pumped miles underground. Meanwhile, on the field next to all of this activity, the sewage waste of hundreds of pigs is spread indiscriminately all over the place. It makes no sense.
Walter Blotscher
Thursday 16 January 2014
FRUITVALE STATION
Fruitvale is a suburban station on the San Francisco area light railway system. In the early hours of New Year's Day 2009, Oscar Grant, a young black man, was shot dead by a white transport police officer while he was being handcuffed after an altercation on the train. Many of the events were filmed by passengers on their mobile phones; it looked decidedly like murder and the officer was charged on that basis. However, the jury eventually convicted him of involuntary manslaughter and he was sentenced to a mere 2 years in prison, serving less than that before being released on parole.
Fruitvale Station is a film of those events, which we have just shown at the local cinema. Given that the story is known in advance, it's a quasi-documentary. It is also very good. If you get the chance, go and see it.
Walter Blotscher
Fruitvale is a suburban station on the San Francisco area light railway system. In the early hours of New Year's Day 2009, Oscar Grant, a young black man, was shot dead by a white transport police officer while he was being handcuffed after an altercation on the train. Many of the events were filmed by passengers on their mobile phones; it looked decidedly like murder and the officer was charged on that basis. However, the jury eventually convicted him of involuntary manslaughter and he was sentenced to a mere 2 years in prison, serving less than that before being released on parole.
Fruitvale Station is a film of those events, which we have just shown at the local cinema. Given that the story is known in advance, it's a quasi-documentary. It is also very good. If you get the chance, go and see it.
Walter Blotscher
Wednesday 15 January 2014
WELFARE TOURISM (2)
At a time when more and more politicians are getting hot under the collar about so-called welfare tourism, so more and more facts are being put on the table which show that immigrants, on average, benefit host countries.
Denmark's Finance Ministry has just released figures for a group of 10 East European countries, whose citizens had permanent residency in Denmark from 2009-11; Poland, Estonia, Hungary, Latvia, Lithuania, Slovenia, the Czech Republic, Slovakia, Bulgaria and Romania. Taxes from these people in these years were kr.1.7 billion, kr.1.9 billion and kr.2.2 billion respectively; while benefits paid out were kr.0.6 billion, kr.0.8 billion and kr.0.9 billion, thereby giving a tidy profit in each of the three years.
True, the figures do not include the cost of public services such as hospitals and schools. However, on the first, it is unlikely that working-age immigrants use medical services very much; while on the second, the marginal cost of providing a school place is quite low. Even allowing for extra expenses here, it is likely that the net benefit to Denmark is positive.
None of which will stop the politicians, of course.
Walter Blotscher
At a time when more and more politicians are getting hot under the collar about so-called welfare tourism, so more and more facts are being put on the table which show that immigrants, on average, benefit host countries.
Denmark's Finance Ministry has just released figures for a group of 10 East European countries, whose citizens had permanent residency in Denmark from 2009-11; Poland, Estonia, Hungary, Latvia, Lithuania, Slovenia, the Czech Republic, Slovakia, Bulgaria and Romania. Taxes from these people in these years were kr.1.7 billion, kr.1.9 billion and kr.2.2 billion respectively; while benefits paid out were kr.0.6 billion, kr.0.8 billion and kr.0.9 billion, thereby giving a tidy profit in each of the three years.
True, the figures do not include the cost of public services such as hospitals and schools. However, on the first, it is unlikely that working-age immigrants use medical services very much; while on the second, the marginal cost of providing a school place is quite low. Even allowing for extra expenses here, it is likely that the net benefit to Denmark is positive.
None of which will stop the politicians, of course.
Walter Blotscher
Tuesday 14 January 2014
THE TRAIN FUND
The Danish Government has big plans for its rail network; around kr.28.5 billion of them. This is the amount it is expected to cost over the next 10-20 years to upgrade rail infrastructure and get people to leave their cars at home.
The core of the proposal is the so-called "hour plan", under which it will take a maximum of an hour to travel between the country's five biggest cities; Copenhagen to Odense, Odense to Esbjerg and Århus, and Århus to Aalborg. That will require new tracks, electrification of existing tracks on Jutland, and a new rail bridge over the Vejle Fjord. There will also be improvements to regional services, and a rail connection to Billund Airport, the country's second busiest, which currently sits in the middle of nowhere in central Jutland, and is very difficult to get to by public transport.
This large slug of cash will come from earmarking additional taxes on North Sea oil production. Experts are divided as to whether these additional taxes will deter investment in what are now increasingly marginal fields, which is why the right-wing opposition parties are not part of the deal. The very right-wing Danish People's Party, on the other hand, is part of the agreement. Even though it is also against extra taxes, it is increasingly championing the cause of "udkants Danmark" (Denmark out in the sticks), which needs better public transport links if there is to be any chance at all of halting the general drift away from the countryside to the major cities. And the Parliamentary constituency of its leader Christian Thulesen Dahl is very close to Billund, which is surely a factor.
Much can still go wrong. Those taxes might not materialise, and then what? And the fund covers only infrastructure, not new trains. Denmark's main rail operator DSB is still digesting the fiasco of its IC4 trains, ordered way back in 2000 to be the next generation workhorses around about today. If and when that new rail infrastructure comes on stream, DSB will be needing IC5 or 6 trains to carry all of those extra non-motorists. Let's hope they do a better job of procuring them than last time.
Walter Blotscher
The Danish Government has big plans for its rail network; around kr.28.5 billion of them. This is the amount it is expected to cost over the next 10-20 years to upgrade rail infrastructure and get people to leave their cars at home.
The core of the proposal is the so-called "hour plan", under which it will take a maximum of an hour to travel between the country's five biggest cities; Copenhagen to Odense, Odense to Esbjerg and Århus, and Århus to Aalborg. That will require new tracks, electrification of existing tracks on Jutland, and a new rail bridge over the Vejle Fjord. There will also be improvements to regional services, and a rail connection to Billund Airport, the country's second busiest, which currently sits in the middle of nowhere in central Jutland, and is very difficult to get to by public transport.
This large slug of cash will come from earmarking additional taxes on North Sea oil production. Experts are divided as to whether these additional taxes will deter investment in what are now increasingly marginal fields, which is why the right-wing opposition parties are not part of the deal. The very right-wing Danish People's Party, on the other hand, is part of the agreement. Even though it is also against extra taxes, it is increasingly championing the cause of "udkants Danmark" (Denmark out in the sticks), which needs better public transport links if there is to be any chance at all of halting the general drift away from the countryside to the major cities. And the Parliamentary constituency of its leader Christian Thulesen Dahl is very close to Billund, which is surely a factor.
Much can still go wrong. Those taxes might not materialise, and then what? And the fund covers only infrastructure, not new trains. Denmark's main rail operator DSB is still digesting the fiasco of its IC4 trains, ordered way back in 2000 to be the next generation workhorses around about today. If and when that new rail infrastructure comes on stream, DSB will be needing IC5 or 6 trains to carry all of those extra non-motorists. Let's hope they do a better job of procuring them than last time.
Walter Blotscher
Monday 13 January 2014
THE BAKKEN SHALE FORMATION
The Bakken shale formation is a 200,000 square mile geological area around Williston, North Dakota. Most of the population there have Scandinavian roots, and the formation is named after a local man called Henry Bakken, who was descended from a Norwegian immigrant. Bakken discovered oil in the formation in the 1950's, but nothing happened at the time, since the technological barriers to extracting it were too great. Basically, the oil and gas is enclosed in solid rock rather than being in liquid form; and getting rid of the rock element was simply too difficult.
That all changed with the arrival of hydraulic fracturing (or "fracking") technology. After drilling down, often several kilometers, the rock is bombarded at high-pressure with a mixture of water and chemicals, which causes it to fracture, thereby releasing the oil and gas. Since this started in 2000, production from the Bakken went up from virtually zero to 450,000 barrels a day by 2000. In April 2013 the US Geological Survey estimated that around 7.4 billion barrels of oil would eventually be recovered from the the formation. That is a lot of oil.
A lot of oil requires a lot of men to extract it. North Dakota was America's least populated state to start with, and it was particularly unpopulated around Williston. Already the population has tripled, and in a particularly skewed way; 90% or more of the arrivals are hard-working, hard.living males with a lot of cash in their pockets. That has put pressure on local services, such as health and law and order.
Fracking from the Bakken and other places has transformed the U.S. energy sector, indeed the whole U.S. economy. 10 years ago, it was an axiom of economic and foreign policy that the U.S. would become increasingly reliant on foreign oil, imported from worrying places such as Saudi Arabia and Angola. Now, domestic oil and gas production is rising fast, and it is expected that the U.S. will overtake Saudi Arabia as the world's largest hydrocarbon producer before too long. Pipelines and terminals built for imports are being reversed/converted, so that they can handle exports.
A Norwegian farmer's curiosity out on the prairie may not have made him rich; but it might just be one of the things that has most influence on the world during the 21st century.
Walter Blotscher
The Bakken shale formation is a 200,000 square mile geological area around Williston, North Dakota. Most of the population there have Scandinavian roots, and the formation is named after a local man called Henry Bakken, who was descended from a Norwegian immigrant. Bakken discovered oil in the formation in the 1950's, but nothing happened at the time, since the technological barriers to extracting it were too great. Basically, the oil and gas is enclosed in solid rock rather than being in liquid form; and getting rid of the rock element was simply too difficult.
That all changed with the arrival of hydraulic fracturing (or "fracking") technology. After drilling down, often several kilometers, the rock is bombarded at high-pressure with a mixture of water and chemicals, which causes it to fracture, thereby releasing the oil and gas. Since this started in 2000, production from the Bakken went up from virtually zero to 450,000 barrels a day by 2000. In April 2013 the US Geological Survey estimated that around 7.4 billion barrels of oil would eventually be recovered from the the formation. That is a lot of oil.
A lot of oil requires a lot of men to extract it. North Dakota was America's least populated state to start with, and it was particularly unpopulated around Williston. Already the population has tripled, and in a particularly skewed way; 90% or more of the arrivals are hard-working, hard.living males with a lot of cash in their pockets. That has put pressure on local services, such as health and law and order.
Fracking from the Bakken and other places has transformed the U.S. energy sector, indeed the whole U.S. economy. 10 years ago, it was an axiom of economic and foreign policy that the U.S. would become increasingly reliant on foreign oil, imported from worrying places such as Saudi Arabia and Angola. Now, domestic oil and gas production is rising fast, and it is expected that the U.S. will overtake Saudi Arabia as the world's largest hydrocarbon producer before too long. Pipelines and terminals built for imports are being reversed/converted, so that they can handle exports.
A Norwegian farmer's curiosity out on the prairie may not have made him rich; but it might just be one of the things that has most influence on the world during the 21st century.
Walter Blotscher
Sunday 12 January 2014
ASYLUM
The 2013 asylum statistics show clearly that within Scandinavia, Denmark is not the destination of choice. Sweden had 5,624 asylum seekers per million inhabitants, Norway 2,360 and Denmark only 1,357.
Good, say those here who don't like the idea of more immigrants. The problem however is that what is unattractive to asylum-seekers will also be unattractive to other types of foreigner. All the prognoses show that Denmark will be short of labour in the future, as the number of people retiring outstrips new entrants to the workforce. All of the political parties have signed up to the idea of importing "qualified workers", that is those with degrees or other skills. But why would thoughtful, skilled workers come to a cold, northern country if desperate asylum-seekers will not?
Walter Blotscher
The 2013 asylum statistics show clearly that within Scandinavia, Denmark is not the destination of choice. Sweden had 5,624 asylum seekers per million inhabitants, Norway 2,360 and Denmark only 1,357.
Good, say those here who don't like the idea of more immigrants. The problem however is that what is unattractive to asylum-seekers will also be unattractive to other types of foreigner. All the prognoses show that Denmark will be short of labour in the future, as the number of people retiring outstrips new entrants to the workforce. All of the political parties have signed up to the idea of importing "qualified workers", that is those with degrees or other skills. But why would thoughtful, skilled workers come to a cold, northern country if desperate asylum-seekers will not?
Walter Blotscher
Saturday 11 January 2014
LIES, DAMNED LIES AND STATISTICS
There are three types of lies; lies, damned lies and statistics. So said the British Prime Minister Benjamin Disraeli in the nineteenth century. And what was true then remains true today.
The Danish Government is desperate to show that its reform programme is not just about saving money, but will also lead to a better public sector, and thereby "secure the welfare state", in their oft-used phrase. As part of that strategy, before Employment Minister Mette Frederiksen launched her reform of (i.e. cuts to) sick pay, she also initiated a research project called "back to work". By getting doctors, social workers and psychologists together at an early stage, it might be possible to get the sick person back to work more quickly than would otherwise have been the case. Yes, that would save the state money; but it would also benefit the person concerned.
The project was launched in 22 of Denmark's 98 local authorities. In five of those, research showed that the strategy had succeeded in reducing the length of time that a sick person was off work by an average of 2.6 weeks. However, when all 22 local authorities were taken into consideration, the overall effect was "close to zero". Despite that, Ms. Frederiksen trumpeted to Parliament that cuts to sick pay were justified, since the "back to work" project had demonstrated that this was the right way forward. On the basis of this (and other things) Parliament duly passed the sick pay reform early last year.
Can you say that something works if it only works in 5 out of 98 local authorities, doesn't work in 17 others, and is uncertain in the remaining 76? The experts working on the "back to work" project all thought not, and warned the Ministry not to over-egg the pudding. As a mathematician, I would have to agree with them. Desperation, however, has its own political logic, and the warnings were ignored.
Now the chickens are coming home to roost. Ms. Frederiksen is saying that she was imprecise in her answers to Parliament, not that she misled Parliament. But as Disraeli said a long time ago, poorly presented statistics look awfully like lies. Watch this space.
Walter Blotscher
There are three types of lies; lies, damned lies and statistics. So said the British Prime Minister Benjamin Disraeli in the nineteenth century. And what was true then remains true today.
The Danish Government is desperate to show that its reform programme is not just about saving money, but will also lead to a better public sector, and thereby "secure the welfare state", in their oft-used phrase. As part of that strategy, before Employment Minister Mette Frederiksen launched her reform of (i.e. cuts to) sick pay, she also initiated a research project called "back to work". By getting doctors, social workers and psychologists together at an early stage, it might be possible to get the sick person back to work more quickly than would otherwise have been the case. Yes, that would save the state money; but it would also benefit the person concerned.
The project was launched in 22 of Denmark's 98 local authorities. In five of those, research showed that the strategy had succeeded in reducing the length of time that a sick person was off work by an average of 2.6 weeks. However, when all 22 local authorities were taken into consideration, the overall effect was "close to zero". Despite that, Ms. Frederiksen trumpeted to Parliament that cuts to sick pay were justified, since the "back to work" project had demonstrated that this was the right way forward. On the basis of this (and other things) Parliament duly passed the sick pay reform early last year.
Can you say that something works if it only works in 5 out of 98 local authorities, doesn't work in 17 others, and is uncertain in the remaining 76? The experts working on the "back to work" project all thought not, and warned the Ministry not to over-egg the pudding. As a mathematician, I would have to agree with them. Desperation, however, has its own political logic, and the warnings were ignored.
Now the chickens are coming home to roost. Ms. Frederiksen is saying that she was imprecise in her answers to Parliament, not that she misled Parliament. But as Disraeli said a long time ago, poorly presented statistics look awfully like lies. Watch this space.
Walter Blotscher
Friday 10 January 2014
DONG ENERGY
Dong Energy is a majority state-owned electricity and energy company. Some months ago, it was announced that Goldman Sachs and other investors would subscribe for kr.11 billion of new shares in the company. Goldman's share would end up at 19%, while the Danish state's would be reduced from 81% to 60%.
Nothing wrong with that; what has raised eyebrows here are the terms of the deal. Normally, an investor with less than 20% of a company is in a fairly weak position. However, Goldman appears to have secured a veto to changes in the articles of association and who can go on the Board, plus the right to enter new business areas that are outside the political agreement behind the running of Dong, and a commitment for the state to repurchase the shares if the company is not listed on the stockmarket within a specified time period.
This has caused the Danish People's Party to threaten a veto. The DPP is in principle a supporter of private capital. But it is also a party to the political agreement and a fierce opponent of unnecessary taxation (which might occur, if the repurchase option gets exercised). Normally I am not a fan of the DPP, but on this they are right; the agreement should be scrutinised in detail before being approved. After all, Goldman have what the British police would call "form" in this area.
Walter Blotscher
Dong Energy is a majority state-owned electricity and energy company. Some months ago, it was announced that Goldman Sachs and other investors would subscribe for kr.11 billion of new shares in the company. Goldman's share would end up at 19%, while the Danish state's would be reduced from 81% to 60%.
Nothing wrong with that; what has raised eyebrows here are the terms of the deal. Normally, an investor with less than 20% of a company is in a fairly weak position. However, Goldman appears to have secured a veto to changes in the articles of association and who can go on the Board, plus the right to enter new business areas that are outside the political agreement behind the running of Dong, and a commitment for the state to repurchase the shares if the company is not listed on the stockmarket within a specified time period.
This has caused the Danish People's Party to threaten a veto. The DPP is in principle a supporter of private capital. But it is also a party to the political agreement and a fierce opponent of unnecessary taxation (which might occur, if the repurchase option gets exercised). Normally I am not a fan of the DPP, but on this they are right; the agreement should be scrutinised in detail before being approved. After all, Goldman have what the British police would call "form" in this area.
Walter Blotscher
Wednesday 8 January 2014
COWS ON THE BEACH
Dead cows have been turning up on the beaches of Denmark and Southern Sweden, minus their eartags. Since cattle are not known for their aquatic abilities, this is a bit of a puzzle for the local police.
Their current theory puts the cause as a Lebanese-registered ship that left the United States in December bound for Russia with a cargo of live cattle. When it reached the Bay of Biscay, it seems that the ship was hit by a violent storm, which caused the deaths of more than 80 of the animals. What do you do in the middle of the ocean with a load of big, dead animals? The legal answer is that you are supposed to take them back to the port of embarkation. Understandably, but wrongly, the crew thought it would be easier to clip off their eartags and heave them overboard one they had got through the Kiel Canal and into the Baltic. Hence the run of carcasses on Scandinavian beaches.
Some overexcited locals are muttering about foot-and-mouth disease and other epidemics. Fortunately, the Danish police are a little more relaxed; the dead cows are simply carted off the beach and burnt.
Walter Blotscher
Dead cows have been turning up on the beaches of Denmark and Southern Sweden, minus their eartags. Since cattle are not known for their aquatic abilities, this is a bit of a puzzle for the local police.
Their current theory puts the cause as a Lebanese-registered ship that left the United States in December bound for Russia with a cargo of live cattle. When it reached the Bay of Biscay, it seems that the ship was hit by a violent storm, which caused the deaths of more than 80 of the animals. What do you do in the middle of the ocean with a load of big, dead animals? The legal answer is that you are supposed to take them back to the port of embarkation. Understandably, but wrongly, the crew thought it would be easier to clip off their eartags and heave them overboard one they had got through the Kiel Canal and into the Baltic. Hence the run of carcasses on Scandinavian beaches.
Some overexcited locals are muttering about foot-and-mouth disease and other epidemics. Fortunately, the Danish police are a little more relaxed; the dead cows are simply carted off the beach and burnt.
Walter Blotscher
Monday 6 January 2014
Sunday 5 January 2014
COLD WEATHER
It's cold in the U.S. at the moment. Not just cold, but absolutely freezing. The air temperature is around minus 20 degrees centigrade in the Mid-West, but because of the windchill, it feels more like minus 50 degrees. That is cold.
The coldest I have ever experienced was minus 29 degrees when we visited my wife's friend near Edmonton in Canada, at the foot of the Rockie Mountains. Luckily their house had triple glazing and a machine in the garage that prevented our rental car from freezing, otherwise we would never have got to the airport. Even with sun and little wind, the cold made your face ache, so I dread to think what Americans are going through at the moment.
The predictions are that all this cold weather will slowly wend its way over here. Winter so far has been unusually mild and wet, without an ounce of snow. February could end up being rather different.
Walter Blotscher
It's cold in the U.S. at the moment. Not just cold, but absolutely freezing. The air temperature is around minus 20 degrees centigrade in the Mid-West, but because of the windchill, it feels more like minus 50 degrees. That is cold.
The coldest I have ever experienced was minus 29 degrees when we visited my wife's friend near Edmonton in Canada, at the foot of the Rockie Mountains. Luckily their house had triple glazing and a machine in the garage that prevented our rental car from freezing, otherwise we would never have got to the airport. Even with sun and little wind, the cold made your face ache, so I dread to think what Americans are going through at the moment.
The predictions are that all this cold weather will slowly wend its way over here. Winter so far has been unusually mild and wet, without an ounce of snow. February could end up being rather different.
Walter Blotscher
Saturday 4 January 2014
THE GREAT TRAIN ROBBERY
The 1963 Great Train Robbery, along with the killing of Lee Harvey Oswald by Jack Ruby (though not the assassination of President Kennedy), was one of my earliest TV memories. I was four at the time, so I don't remember the details; but I do remember that it was a big deal, both at the time and later.
As I grew up and found out more about what had happened, two things struck me. The first was the length of the prison sentences given to the perpetrators after they had been caught and tried, 30 years without parole for nearly all of them (there was no parole system at the time of sentencing, so they served the full 30 years). It is true that the train driver had been hit with an iron bar, when the robbers boarded the train. However, although hospitalised, he had not died, yet the 30-year sentences were much longer than many of those given in that age to murderers and rapists. Even as a child, I didn't think that that was very just.
The second was that it was never convincingly explained why there was £2.6 million (roughly £50 million in today's money) in cash on an overnight mail train without any special security arrangements. It seemed at the time, and still seems today, bizarrely easy-going.
I was reminded of all this because Ronnie Biggs died just before Christmas and his obituary was in the Economist. Biggs was only a minor member of the 16-man gang, whose only job was to recruit a train driver, who would drive the train from the hold-up signal to a suitable low bridge where the cash would be loaded into a lorry. As it happened, the (retired) driver could not drive the (modern model) train, so the original driver had to be pressed into service. This meant that Biggs' role had not been necessary. Yet he became the most famous member of the gang by escaping from prison in 1965 and finding his way to Brazil, which did not have an extradition treaty with the U.K. Safe in his hideaway, he kept up a stream of articles and interviews to a British press that always seemed to have a sneaking admiration for London criminals.
The Great Train Robbery would never happen today. Hardly anybody uses cash anymore; and if they do, it is carried in armoured car vans with GPS and radio communication. Ronnie Biggs would have to find another way to become famous, probably by appearing on Big Brother.
Walter Blotscher
The 1963 Great Train Robbery, along with the killing of Lee Harvey Oswald by Jack Ruby (though not the assassination of President Kennedy), was one of my earliest TV memories. I was four at the time, so I don't remember the details; but I do remember that it was a big deal, both at the time and later.
As I grew up and found out more about what had happened, two things struck me. The first was the length of the prison sentences given to the perpetrators after they had been caught and tried, 30 years without parole for nearly all of them (there was no parole system at the time of sentencing, so they served the full 30 years). It is true that the train driver had been hit with an iron bar, when the robbers boarded the train. However, although hospitalised, he had not died, yet the 30-year sentences were much longer than many of those given in that age to murderers and rapists. Even as a child, I didn't think that that was very just.
The second was that it was never convincingly explained why there was £2.6 million (roughly £50 million in today's money) in cash on an overnight mail train without any special security arrangements. It seemed at the time, and still seems today, bizarrely easy-going.
I was reminded of all this because Ronnie Biggs died just before Christmas and his obituary was in the Economist. Biggs was only a minor member of the 16-man gang, whose only job was to recruit a train driver, who would drive the train from the hold-up signal to a suitable low bridge where the cash would be loaded into a lorry. As it happened, the (retired) driver could not drive the (modern model) train, so the original driver had to be pressed into service. This meant that Biggs' role had not been necessary. Yet he became the most famous member of the gang by escaping from prison in 1965 and finding his way to Brazil, which did not have an extradition treaty with the U.K. Safe in his hideaway, he kept up a stream of articles and interviews to a British press that always seemed to have a sneaking admiration for London criminals.
The Great Train Robbery would never happen today. Hardly anybody uses cash anymore; and if they do, it is carried in armoured car vans with GPS and radio communication. Ronnie Biggs would have to find another way to become famous, probably by appearing on Big Brother.
Walter Blotscher
Friday 3 January 2014
TURKEY
I have had a friend from England staying over New Year, hence no blogging for a while. So Happy New Year to all my readers, I hope 2014 will be a good one.
Today was a clearing-up kind of day, after the holiday season. I got some more free tuition about the internal intricacies of my chainsaw, notably how to unclog the air filters and what happens if you don't. Then it was out into the wood to chop up the last of the trees which had fallen down in the storms. One thing about 2014 is certain; we won't run out of fuel for the wood-burning stove.
After all that hard work, what better way to fuel up again than by eating the last pieces of the Christmas turkey? This year's weighed in at just under 9kg, which was more than enough for 6 people, even with my two sons at home. One of them made a Jamie Oliver turkey and leek pie with the leftovers, which was very nice. And I made a soup from the carcass, which lasted a few days. And we put half of the breast in the freezer for a rainy day. But that still left a lot of meat for sandwiches. My daughter is vegetarian, and my wife decided that she was sick of the wretched bird, so it was left to me to finish it off. Which I have now duly done.
The only thing missing was some Branston Pickle to slosh all over it. Now there's a New Year resolution.
Walter Blotscher
I have had a friend from England staying over New Year, hence no blogging for a while. So Happy New Year to all my readers, I hope 2014 will be a good one.
Today was a clearing-up kind of day, after the holiday season. I got some more free tuition about the internal intricacies of my chainsaw, notably how to unclog the air filters and what happens if you don't. Then it was out into the wood to chop up the last of the trees which had fallen down in the storms. One thing about 2014 is certain; we won't run out of fuel for the wood-burning stove.
After all that hard work, what better way to fuel up again than by eating the last pieces of the Christmas turkey? This year's weighed in at just under 9kg, which was more than enough for 6 people, even with my two sons at home. One of them made a Jamie Oliver turkey and leek pie with the leftovers, which was very nice. And I made a soup from the carcass, which lasted a few days. And we put half of the breast in the freezer for a rainy day. But that still left a lot of meat for sandwiches. My daughter is vegetarian, and my wife decided that she was sick of the wretched bird, so it was left to me to finish it off. Which I have now duly done.
The only thing missing was some Branston Pickle to slosh all over it. Now there's a New Year resolution.
Walter Blotscher
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