Sunday 30 June 2013

THE DANISH MODEL (3) 

In May the union representing family doctors took soundings from its members about returning their public sector licences on 31 August and charging patients thereafter. Well over 90% backed the idea.

Yesterday there was a meeting of the union to take the next step. In a surprising and dramatic twist, it voted 25-24 not to get its members to return their licences. The union's hardline Chairman resigned and was replaced by a moderate.

It's not easy to read the internal workings of another organisation; but it seems that the family doctors have looked long and hard at what happened to the teachers, and decided that it is better to spend the next nine months negotiating a new contract to come into force on 1 September 2014 than to incur the wrath of a united Parliament that wants more control over what doctors do.

I suspect that that was a smart move. United Parliaments have a habit of getting their way, particularly where spending money is concerned.

Walter Blotscher

Friday 28 June 2013

RURAL SERVICES (2)

The local post office has gone, and local post is following it. At least on Mondays. From 1 June 2014 no ordinary post will be delivered on the first day of the week, though newspapers and parcels will be. It will be possible still to get a letter on a Monday, but it will cost more. Quite a lot more, in fact; around kr.50.

Post Danmark claim that there are valid reasons for doing this, but I have to say that I don't understand them. If the postman is putting a newspaper in your letter box on Monday morning, then how difficult is it to pop a letter in with it?

Walter Blotscher

Thursday 27 June 2013

THE CIRCUS

The circus is a summer tradition in Denmark. Every year a number of companies tour round the small towns, playing to capacity houses. The full occupancy is due to the fact that it is usually for one night only. As soon as the performance is over and the audience has filed out, everything is taken down, packed away, and taken to the next town, 20 km away. It's impressively efficient.

Tonight the circus came to the small town where I live. I couldn't go, but my wife did, along with her small nieces and nephew, who all enjoyed it. And now it has gone until next year.

Walter Blotscher

Wednesday 26 June 2013

REVENGE

Some three years ago Julia Gillard, then deputy leader of Australia's Labour Party, organised a palace coup that got rid of her then boss, Kevin Rudd. In doing so, she took over his other job and became the country's first ever woman Prime Minister, a position she has held ever since.

Until today. The problem with Ms. Gillard's plan was that Mr. Rudd wasn't going to take the result lying down, particularly since opinion polls consistently showed that he was the more popular amongst voters. Since 2010 there have been three further party leadership elections, all of them pitting the two against each other once more. The one this spring gave Ms. Gillard a walkover, since Mr. Rudd realised he did not have the necessary votes, and so withdrew. However, with a general election due in September, which Labour is widely expected to lose, some Labour MP's decided to try and save their jobs by switching sides. Today's vote was 57-45 in favour of Mr. Rudd, who thereby becomes Prime Minister again. Ms. Gillard will leave politics for good.

Mr. Rudd probably won't lead Labour to victory in September, but he may well minimise its defeat. However, that is not the real issue. This was a personal, and very bitter, feud between two people who wanted the same job. Mr. Rudd had to wait a long time for his revenge, but he has now got it. Whoever said that politics was a nice business?

Walter Blotscher

Tuesday 25 June 2013

TURKEY AND THE EU (3)

I don't know if E.U. Foreign Ministers read my blog (yes, I know they should, but ...), but they have just decided to put accession talks with Turkey on ice for four months. That means that they won't start again until after the German elections in September. Angela Merkel is the most influential sceptic about Turkey's place in the E.U., and she doesn't want the Turkish issue to flare up during the campaign. Recent events in Turkey will have strengthened her view that Turkey should remain outside. Austria and the Netherlands (plus others?) seem to agree.

Although they officially continue, the accession talks look further and further away from completion. They started for Turkey in 2005, at the same time as those for Croatia. Yet while Croatia will join as the 28th Member State on 1 July, Turkey's talks have been stuck for the past three years. Only thirteen of the 35 "chapters" have been opened, and eight are completely frozen because of the Cyprus dispute. Only one chapter, on science and research, has been closed.

Saying no to Turkey would be the right decision, in my view, as I have said. But the E.U. seems loth to say it. I suppose Member States are hoping that Turkey will eventually get the message and break off the talks themselves.

Walter Blotscher

Sunday 23 June 2013

SANKT HANS

Likes most countries, Britain took heathen festivals and adapted them to the Christian religion; Christmas, for instance. However, there is a notable exception. Unless you are a druid or decided pagan, a Brit is unlikely to celebrate Sankt Hans ("Saint Hans"). Scandinavians and other northern Europeans, on the other hand, have all been out this evening doing just that.

Hans is the name for John the Baptist, whose festival day is tomorrow. But that is just an excuse. In the same way as Christmas took over the heathen festival of the winter solstice and moved it a couple of days, so Sankt Hans has taken over the heathen festival of the summer solstice and moved it a couple of days. Midsummer was the time of the year when magical spirits - both good and evil - were at their most powerful. So peasants built a bonfire to frighten away witches and other bad things. Just in case the message didn't get through, a figure representing a witch was put on the top, and burnt.

So it was this evening. The bonfire had been ready for some time, after I had chopped down the fruit trees. My wife and I made a witch out of newspapers and some of my son's old clothes, filled it with fire crackers so that it would scream when burnt, and attached it to the top. Together with some of our neighbours, we had coffee and cake in the house, and then went down to the paddock at 9pm in order to light the bonfire and have a few drinks.

It was a lovely summer evening, but unfortunately, it has rained a lot here recently. Despite straw from my neighbour, fire lighters and pieces of dry wood, it took a fair amount of petrol to get the bonfire going. However, get going it did eventually. And after everyone had gone home, my wife and I spent an hour or so under a full moon watching it crackle and splutter while drinking a glass of wine. It was very hyggeligt.

Walter Blotscher

Saturday 22 June 2013

POPULATION GROWTH

The U.N. has just issued its latest forecast for the world's population. Two years ago, it thought that the planet would have 10.1 billion people in 2100; now it thinks that there will be almost 11 billion.

Most of the difference is due to Africa; the statisticians have hugely underestimated the number of African children. Africa is the one continent where there will be major population growth this century, from around 1.1 billion today to 4.2 billion in 2100. By then Africa will have almost as many people as Asia, whose population will grow only slowly, from 4.3 billion today to 4.7 billion in 2100. China, currently the world's most populous nation, will see its population fall by 22% to just over 1 billion, as the consequences of generations of one-child families take full effect. By contrast, Nigeria's is expected to rise by 425%, to almost 1 billion. And Tanzania, a rather sleepy place when I was there in the 1990's with some 20 million people, will by 2100 have 275 million people and be the sixth most populous country on the planet, after India, China, Nigeria, the United States and Indonesia. Three other African countries, Ethiopia, Congo and Uganda make up the top ten, along with Pakistan.

As well as major population growth, there will be population declines. Indeed, some 40 countries are expected to have reduced populations by 2100. As well as China, they include Russia, most of Eastern Europe, Japan and Cuba.

Population shifts of this order of magnitude will have huge economic and political effects. The influence of Europe, the only continent that will have fewer people overall, will surely decline. While African consumers, hitherto an exotic and barely understood lot, will increasingly become the saviours of multinational businesses, as well as providing a greater proportion of the world's sports stars.

With so many people, the planet will become more and more urban. And it will be difficult to find places not already occupied by lots of others. Thankfully, by 2100, I am unlikely to be around.

Walter Blotscher

Friday 21 June 2013

MENTHOL CIGARETTES

E.U. Health Ministers have today decided that as from 2019, it will not be possible to produce and sell cigarettes with added flavours such as strawberry and menthol. Denmark had resisted the inclusion of menthol, since many of the 130,000 Danish menthol smokers (out of around 1 million in total) are pensioners, who tend to vote a lot and so are dangerous to antagonise. However, research shows that menthol cigarettes are often the way in which young people are introduced to cigarettes; it is hoped that by banning them, it will reduce smoking amongst the young.

I can subscribe to the latter. I have never been much of a smoker, but I did smoke menthol cigarettes a bit as a teenager. I gave up because a rumour went round that menthol cigarettes made you sterile. I doubt that that was on the agenda in Brussels today.

Walter Blotscher

Thursday 20 June 2013

THE E.U. AND WELFARE

The general rule is that Member States in the north and west of the E.U. have more developed welfare states than those in the south and east. Given that one of the core principles of the E.U. is the free movement of people, this creates (or is purported to create) opportunities for arbitrage, whereby citizens of one Member State move to another in order to obtain better welfare benefits. Since Denmark has the most developed welfare system of all, this fear is quite pronounced here. But is it justified?

This issue popped up again this week after a decision by the European Commission that Denmark's policy on child benefit was against E.U. law. Back in 2012 the then right-of-centre Government changed the law so that immigrants from other E.U. countries could only gradually obtain the right to child benefit; the full rate would only kick in after 2 years. It is this law that the Commission has ruled against; child benefit should be available from the start.

Right-wing politicians have been quick to rant against the opportunity for "welfare tourism" that this provides. The reality is more prosaic. Government officials expect to spend Dkr.15 million a year extra in 2014 when the old rule goes, a drop in the ocean compared with the Dkr.17 billion, which is currently spent on child benefit.

None of which is surprising. If you were a poor (say) Bulgarian, would you really move to Denmark, a country you don't know and whose language you don't speak, merely in order to obtain better child benefit? True, there may be some people who do, but it's never going to be a large number. Still, that reality is not going to stop certain politicians from scaremongering.

Walter Blotscher

Tuesday 18 June 2013

COMPANIONSHIP

One of the things I like about male friendship is that it doesn't necessarily involve talking; doing things together in quiet companionship is enough.

Two recent episodes reminded me of this. The first was my recent walking tour. Although there were periods of putting the world to rights, there were also long stretches of walking in silence.

The second was the visit this week of my nephew from England. Today we went for a 40km bike ride together. Again, there were breaks and stops for ice cream and to look at the lighthouse. But much of it was companionable pedalling on a very hot day.

Walter Blotscher

Monday 17 June 2013

LEAVING HOME (8)

My younger son has many qualities, but domestic guru would not have been on my list, if you had asked me. So it was with a great deal of curiosity that I went to dinner this evening with the rest of the family at his new flat in Odense.

I have to say that the meal was very good. Chicken wrapped in bacon and baked in the oven with leeks and onions, garlic bread, and a tasty salad. Washed down with beer and white wine.

I was impressed, and look forward to more such evenings.

Walter Blotscher

Sunday 16 June 2013

TURKEY AND THE EU (2)

Some three years ago, I wrote a post saying that German Chancellor Angela Merkel ought to tell Turkey that it would not (and should not) become a fully fledged member of the E.U. Turkey was one of the first countries to ask to join what was then the 6-member E.E.C., way back at the end of the 1950's. Since then, the club has expanded to 27 Member States (soon to be 28 with Croatia), while at the same time playing eternally hard to get with its Turkish suitor.

Recent events have strengthened my view on this. My fundamental objection is that although there is a lack of clarity elsewhere, I simply do not believe that the south eastern frontier of Europe should be east of Lake Van, on the border with Syria, Iraq and Iran. With Syria currently in the midst of a vicious civil war, and on a possible path to complete meltdown as a state, I can't see that any current Member State has an interest in providing a European safe haven a few kilometers from a war zone. It's possible that the situation will improve. But the Middle East has a habit of confounding optimists, as the last decade in Iraq shows clearly.

Meanwhile, within Turkey itself, there are severe cracks in the carefully constructed facade that the country is ready for E.U. membership. The Cyprus problem is no closer to resolution; Turkey locks up more journalists than China; it has treated its Kurdish minority badly (and at times appallingly) for decades; there are squabbles with Armenia; and the large Alevi sect do not always find it easy to get along with their more orthodox Sunni brethren. Most worryingly, Prime Minister Erdogan has discovered an increasingly authoritarian streak that brooks no dissent. Young Turks of all persuasions particularly dislike the last, as the demonstrations in Istanbul and other cities show. If they continue during the summer and the Turkish police become ever more violent, then I suspect that more and more Europeans will come to the view that Turkey should stay as part of Asia.

In Roman times, the Mediterranean was an inland sea, North Africa was the city's bread basket, Anatolia was firmly Greek, and everything on the other side of the Rhine and Danube frontiers was barbaric and beyond the pale. But times have changed since then. And while it is uncontroversial that (say) Finland is a European country, so it is also uncontroversial (in my view, at least) that Turkey is not. What remains is that it should be told so.  

Walter Blotscher

Saturday 15 June 2013

HYPNING

"At hyppe" in Danish means to hoe. In fact a particular way to hoe, in which you lift the earth up and cover your potatoes or leeks by the side of the little ditch that you have made. Potatoes don't like sun, it makes them go green and poisonous. By covering most of the plants, you protect the tubers and allow them to get bigger under the soil. That's what I have just done in the kitchen garden.

Potatoes being a large part of Danish agriculture, hyppe has also given rise to a fair number of proverbs. "At hyppe sine egne kartofler" (literally to hoe your own potatoes) means to look after number one; I suppose a bit like to hoe one's own farrow. And "at have nogle private kartofler at hyppe" (literally to have some private potatoes to hoe) means to have an axe to grind.

I don't know about an axe, but I do have some nice-looking potato plants.

Walter Blotscher

Thursday 13 June 2013

THE GREAT GATSBY

The Great Gatsby is Scott Fitzgerald's most famous work. At 230 (rather small) pages, it's more of a novella than a novel. Having first read it at university, I picked up a copy at the airport when I was in the U.K. last week, and finished it in a couple of days.

My reason for doing so was to have read it before I saw the film. I vaguely remember the 1974 version, with Robert Redford as Gatsby and Mia Farrow as Daisy; the new one has Leonardo di Caprio and Carey Mulligan instead. I showed it this morning at the local cinema to the pensioners, of whom there weren't very many because of the nice weather. In fact it was so warm that the projector bulb (which is air cooled) overheated and the picture disappeared with half an hour to go. However, the audience were tolerant as I scrambled to sort out the technical problem by blowing hard on the equipment (just kidding).

You would think that it would be difficult to make a 2 hour 23 minute film out of such a short book, but it worked. Indeed, I would go so far as to say that this is one of the few occasions in which the film was better than the book. Worth a look, if the weather is poor.

Walter Blotscher

Wednesday 12 June 2013

DENMARK AND GERMANY (5)

Denmark's rather tricky relationship with Germany involves (from the Danish side) selling its bigger neighbour a lot of pigs and other goods, and enticing the Germans to come here on holiday. However, while the porcine part of the arrangement seems to be going well, the latter seems to be in a gentle decline. The number of nights spent by Germans in Danish summer houses has fallen from a high of 11.7 million in 2000 to 10.7 million in 2007 and a low of 9.7 million in 2009; though it rose a bit to 10.4 million in 2012. The slack has been taken up by Danes themselves, who are increasingly choosing to stay at home for their holidays. The number of nights spent by Danes has risen from 1.9 million in 2000 to 3.8 million in 2012.

There could well be sensible reasons for both trends. Why go on holiday in Denmark if it's expensive and doesn't guarantee any sun (unlike, say, Thailand)? And why go on holiday abroad if times are hard, and there's not lots of spare cash?

Some years ago, Danes were terrified that Germany wanted to buy up most of the country, and turn it into a holiday resort. That fear looks increasingly exaggerated.

Walter Blotscher

Tuesday 11 June 2013

WORLD CUP (4)

The countdown to the World Cup in Brazil next year is well underway, and one thing is already certain; it will be without Denmark. Needing to win a home game this evening against Armenia to have even a remote chance of qualifying, they conceded a goal after just 25 seconds, and eventually lost 0-4.

Given that Armenia had just been beaten by lowly Malta, this was a terrible result. Put simply, Denmark were awful in all aspects of the game. Morten Olsen's 13-year reign as manager looks like ending very soon.

Walter Blotscher

Monday 10 June 2013

MY ANNUAL WALKING TOUR (3)

I came back last Monday from my annual walking tour in the Lake District. After terrible weather on the drive up to Lancaster and a 10-year run without rain during the three days in question, we felt sure that we would be in for a drenching. But no. As we drove up on the Thursday morning, the clouds lifted and we had three days of good weather; driving back on the Sunday morning, it started to drizzle again.

We stayed at the Screes in Nether Wasdale, at the western end of Waswater, which had been our base for the first three years. However, the pub has since been sold to a brewery, and it told, particularly on the food side. Luckily there's a pub on the other side of the road, with good food and bubbly service, so we chose to eat there in the evenings. One thing that is noteworthy is the size of the bill for this holiday. Back in 2002 it cost us all more than £300 a head; this year a mere £220. At 43, you can easily drink 4 pints of beer before dinner and two bottles of wine with it; at 53, that has fallen to one or two pints and one bottle of wine max.

Waswater is a fantastic place to explore the Lake District, since it is close to many of the major peaks such as Scafell, but relatively uncrowded  (the eastern side of Scafell, coming up from Windermere, is by comparison almost a motorway). On the Saturday, the peak was clear all day. However, rather than climb it, we did a route all the way round it, which included a fair amount of yomping, and some tough climbs here and there. The one up to the top of Bowfell just after lunch was pretty gruelling; but the view from the trig point was worth it, as you can see.





This year's walk was the first without our great friend Tom, who sadly took his own life last year. I was a bit apprehensive about how this would affect us, but it worked out fine. He was mentioned a lot, in a very positive way; and I am sure he was there with us in spirit.


The other rituals of the holiday, visiting my Mum (still going strong), and bringing back to Denmark Rose's lime marmalade and Branston Pickle, were also followed. I am already looking forward to next year.

Walter Blotscher

Sunday 9 June 2013

GARDENING (3)

I weeded the kitchen garden this weekend, so it's time for a status report.

1. Things I have grown before.

Rhubarb. I have had three crops already, and am on my fourth. An amazing plant, you don't have to do anything.

Potatoes. All 50 or so of my plants have come up, and are about a foot above ground. They are looking good.

Lettuces.  At one end of the rows, they have come up really well, but at the other end, nothing at all. Fortunately, we seeded them very close together, so I will transplant some of them from one end to the other and let them all have more room.

Carrots. They seem to take a long time to get going, but they are poking through, so I am confident we'll get some.

Squash. They take ages to get going, so no signs of life yet at all.

2. New things

Both the celery and cauliflower were bought as small plants, and take a while to develop roots. That end of the garden got flooded a couple of weeks ago, so they have had a hard time. My wife also thinks that the cauliflower are being eaten by deer. Anyway, removing all of the weeds seems to have spurred them into action, and things are starting to happen.

Similarly with the leeks. They are tiny thin things, when you buy them, it's incredible that they end up so big eventually. They were also flooded, but some of them are now standing straight up, so I think we'll get something in the autumn.

As you can tell, I am rather proud of my kitchen garden. It's not quite "city boy becomes farmer", but in that vein.

Walter Blotscher

Saturday 8 June 2013

ORAL EXAMS

After the teachers' lockout in April, we are in the midst of the exam season here in Denmark. As a Brit, I am used to a single form of exam; long (usually three hours), written, and using a pen (no computer). I completed an English law degree some years ago, and can still recall the pain in my wrist from writing nine 3-hour exams in Copenhagen by hand. It's not particularly modern, and technologically primitive.

Danish children take both written and oral exams. The written ones are a bit different, in that you can use a computer (nearly all do), and have access to all of your textbooks and other sources. But it is the oral ones that are most different. In maths, where I teach a bit, the students come in in pairs, and randomly choose one set from a group of a dozen or so "scenarios" prepared by me. These are all real-life situations, which are interwoven with mathematical problems. A sailor is out in a boat and has to find her way; a rainbow has a curved shape; she bought the boat with a loan which she has to repay; she has a part-time job and pays tax; should she take a rain jacket, given the chances of rain? Etc etc. Over the course of the next two hours or so the students discuss and solve the problems, highlight their limitations, perhaps extend them in new directions, and generally show their mathematical skills. I and an external censor, a teacher from a neighbouring school, circulate from time to time and chat about what they have come up with. At the end of all that, they get a grade. If I and the censor disagree, then it is the censor's view that prevails, so that I can't favour my own students.

The structure undoubtedly puts a premium on verbal skills and reasoning, which is unusual in the British environment. And sure enough, those students with the gift of the gab did rather better. It's undoubtedly true that their gab has to be mathematically correct. However, with that caveat, it gives a chance to (say) the pupil who finds it hard to sit still and concentrate, but has lots to say. All in all, a very interesting experience.      

Walter Blotscher

Thursday 6 June 2013

CONSTITUTION DAY

It is often said that the U.K. doesn't have a constitution. In fact it does; though unlike most countries, it doesn't have it in written form in one document. The British constitution is a mix of statute, case law and custom. As such, it can sometimes seem a bit impenetrable.

However, what is undoubtedly true is that us Brits don't think of the constitution as a holy relic in the same way as the Americans or Danes do. In the latter's case, they have had a Grundlov ("basic law"), since 5 June 1849, when the king of the day, Frederik VII, gave up his absolute powers and turned his country into a constitutional monarchy. The Grundlov has been amended since then, but not often; in 1866, 1915, 1920 and 1953. In the last set of changes, Parliament was reduced from two chambers to one; the rules of succession were changed so that women could succeed, thereby allowing Margrethe II to become queen later; Greenland's status was changed from a colony to an administrative region of Denmark, with its people becoming Danish citizens; and the voting age was reduced to 23 (since reduced, by way of ordinary statute, to 18).

The 5 June signing day has a special significance, and has entered Danish life as Grundlovsdag. However, nobody is quite sure what sort of day it is. It's a full holiday for some, a half holiday for others, and nothing for others still. Perhaps the only thing that is certain about it is that politicians take the opportunity to pontificate. As they did again yesterday, in spades.

Walter Blotscher